In response to pezz4pats' comment:
In response to PhatVirgin's comment:
In response to pezz4pats' comment:
Well, here's the problem, partner.
Worse pass D or Run D really doesn't matter because it boiling down to a worse 3rd down D than last year and years prior.
So, whether it by pass or run, the other teams are keeping the D on the field, even worse than last year and as bad as 2011.
When the D is on the field, that means the O is not.
Reduced possessions are not a recipe for success and it's even worse now that the O has declined. They will need every possession possible to score points or at least some help from the D and ST's. They had a freaken 7 possession game this year. W T F
Turn overs are in decline too. so...
The only advantage I see them having is that they've been to hell and back and still survived. That and the rest of the league has problems too.
Yes, I believe they are team of great strength, just not statistically talented.
The season starts over now. They will not be playing the Browns, Jets, Fins, Bills, Texans.
So, we will see just how strong they are.
Hopin for the best, BUT.........
That's a big BUT!
Here's a question about 3rd down defense. what is their 3rd down defense like between the 20s vs. in the red zone? In other words, historically - BB's defense give ups lots of yards between the 20s. I would guess that between 2008 and 2011 and some of 2012 - it was worse than this year.
In addition, how are this year's Patriots at making timely stops. Sure, they had hiccups this year too - but I have a little more faith at this time vs. lets say 2011.
I don't know what their 3rd down D is in the RZ. I don't think I've ever seen it broken down that way.
I do know that they gave up 4 rushing TD's to the Texans, a team that had 2 Total rushing TD's for the year. So it can't be great
I do know that they are 26th in the league and that is not good. It's a little better than 2011, which was beyond pathetic. Better pass D but bad run D.
Even their points allowed is not indicative of current games. They started low against a first game rookie, a second game rookie, Josh Freeman DOA, and then increased significantly with a few low scoring games and then the 30ppg type. They are closer to the mid 20's + now as apposed to the beginning of the year, when it was lower..
Also, I keep stressing that lower possession games will result in lower points allowed. (and scored)
Points per drive are a better indicator than points per game because not all games have the same amount of possessions. Giving up 17 points in 8 possessions is not the same as giving up 17 points in 12 possessions. The score is the same but one was achieved with less stops. Obviously the team who gave up 17 in 12 possessions, is a better D than the one who gave up 17 with only 8 possessions,. The Pats D is on the lower possession scale, which may make it artificially low..
A D that can't get off the field is going to have less possessions to stop and unfortunately, less possessions to try and score with for the O.
When teams like the Browns and fins are keeping the D on the field, that's Not Good.
PPD is a stat that isn't kept. It's analog is points per play.
NE as a team is 7th in PPP margin.
It is such a tremendous indicator of success. The margin demonstrates the difference between points allowed and scored divided by how many plays it took to get them. The only playoff outlier is Green Bay, who missed Rogers fore much of the season, and San Diego who lost some games by large margins early before pulling together late.
PPG is THE stat by which team effectiveness can be judged, PPD is merely a version made relatable to average fans (what does a "play" mean to a person watching"?).
Look at this list, and find me one other that is as close at predicting playoff teams over a large sample:
4Kansas City 0.1