Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    In response to PhatVirgin's comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     Well, here's the problem, partner.

    Worse pass D or Run D really doesn't matter because it boiling down to a worse 3rd down D than last year and years prior.

    So, whether it by pass or run, the other teams are keeping the D on the field, even worse than last year and as bad as 2011.

    When the D is on the field, that means the O is not.

    Reduced possessions are not a recipe for success and it's even worse now that the O has declined.  They will need every possession possible to score points or at least some help from the D and ST's.  They had a freaken 7 possession game this year.  W T F

      Turn overs are in decline too. so...

    The only advantage I see them having is that they've been to hell and back and still survived.  That and the rest of the league has problems too.

    Yes, I believe they are team of great strength, just not statistically talented.

    The season starts over now.  They will not be playing the Browns, Jets, Fins, Bills, Texans.

    So, we will see just how strong they are.

    Hopin for the best,  BUT.........

    That's a big BUT!Sealed


    Here's a question about 3rd down defense. what is their 3rd down defense like between the 20s vs. in the red zone? In other words, historically - BB's defense give ups lots of yards between the 20s. I would guess that between 2008 and 2011 and some of 2012 - it was worse than this year.
    In addition, how are this year's Patriots at making timely stops.  Sure, they had hiccups this year too - but I have a little more faith at this time vs. lets say 2011.

    I don't know what their 3rd down D is in the RZ.  I don't think I've ever seen it broken down that way.

    I do know that they gave up 4 rushing TD's to the Texans, a team that had 2 Total rushing TD's for the year.  So it can't be great

    I do know that they are 26th in the league and that is not good. It's a little better than 2011, which was beyond pathetic.  Better pass D but bad run D.

    Even their points allowed is not indicative of current games.  They started low against a first game rookie, a second game rookie, Josh Freeman DOA, and then increased significantly with a few low scoring games and then the 30ppg type.  They are closer to the mid 20's + now as apposed to the beginning of the year, when it was lower..

    Also, I keep stressing that lower possession games will result in lower points allowed. (and scored)

    Points per drive are a better indicator than points per game because not all games have the same amount of possessions.  Giving up 17 points in 8 possessions is not the same as giving up 17 points in 12 possessions.  The score is the same but one was achieved with less stops.  Obviously the team who gave up 17 in 12 possessions, is a better D than the one who gave up 17 with only 8 possessions,.  The Pats D is on the lower possession scale, which may make it artificially low..

    A D that can't get off the field is going to have less possessions to stop and unfortunately, less possessions to try and score with for the O. 

    When teams like the Browns and fins are keeping the D on the field, that's Not Good.

    It's scary.

    PPD is a stat that isn't kept. It's analog is points per play. 

    NE as a team is 7th in PPP margin. 

    It is such a tremendous indicator of success. The margin demonstrates the difference between points allowed and scored divided by how many plays it took to get them. The only playoff outlier is Green Bay, who missed Rogers fore much of the season, and San Diego who lost some games by large margins early before pulling together late.

    PPG is THE stat by which team effectiveness can be judged, PPD is merely a version made relatable to average fans (what does a "play" mean to a person watching"?).

    Look at this list, and find me one other that is as close at predicting playoff teams over a large sample:

    1Seattle        0.2

    2San Francisco0.2

    3Denver        0.2

    4Kansas City        0.1

    5Carolina        0.1

    6Cincinnati        0.1

    7New England0.1

    8Philadelphia        0.1

    9Dallas        0.1

    10New Orleans0.1

    11Arizona        0.1

    12Indianapolis        0.1

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Well, the #1 factor will be whether they can get a turnover in every game they play.

    I've posted this before, but it bears repeating:

    Other than the final score itself, the best predictor of whether the Pats will win each postseason game is whether they can force a turnover by the other team.

    In the Belichick Era the Pats are 16-4 (.800) when they force a turnover.  They are 1-3 (.250) when they don't.   The lone win without forcing a turnover was the 2001 team which was ranked #6 in team defense.  The 3 losses were 2010, 2011, and 2012.  See a trend?

    This defense/ST must create turnovers for the Pats to win in the postseason.  If you think it's been too long since the last SB win, it has been even longer since they won without causing a turnover.

    They win at a higher pct. in the postseason when forcing a turnover than their winning pct. in the Belichick Era overall. 

    The sample size is large and the numbers don't lie.

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Stay healthy.

    Stay balanced on offense...

    Play tough.  We can beat everybody and anybody.

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    In response to Bradysgirlforreal's comment:

    In response to tcal2-'s comment:

    Well once again Tom Brady is going into the playoffs without any weapons.  Edelman is good in the slot but with no outside weapons he can be taken out of a game.  No TE's capable of making a play.  Rookie WR's who haven't improved and can't stay on the field.  Danny is useless.

    God Bless you Tom Brady and hopefully you can make Chit shine for 3 more games.

    I think the Pats should run the ball more this playoffs--no one in the AFC playoffs except possibly the Bungels can stop the run?

    And the Chiefs and the 49ers and the Seahawks and the Eagles and the Chargers and the Panthers ...

    That pretty much means the Colts, Packers, Saints, and Broncos ... oh and New England have some trouble against the run.

    Not real sure about blanket statements like that. NE will need to do something different to beat each team. 

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    If there is a key to the playoffs it will be whether NE can generate turnovers on defense. 

    Basically, it's the stat that completely flatlines in all their playoff struggles ... the turnovers they get in the regular season just dry up in the crunch. 

    If NE can generate a couple turnovers per game and not turn it over more than once per game, they will win ... regardless of their "balance," playcalling, etcetera. 

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from EastTraveler. Show EastTraveler's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Sometimes Patriots fans need to realize that the glass is half-full... With all that has happen both off and on the field there probably isn't many coaches/QB's that could of gotten to where they are at now. The rest of the season is further icing on the cake and we can all just hope that the Patriots can find a way to the end with another SB ring. If not they have nothing to hang their heads about... We all know that Patriots fans expectations are far higher than most other teams in the NFL as this is of course an opinion and observation... Tongue Out

  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Every team stinks this year. The team that stinks the least will win the super bowl.

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Pats are renowned as a game-planning team both on O and on D.  The game plans will be tailored for each team they face; there isn't any one formula that they can apply to succeed. 

    If they can generate turnovers they have a real shot.

    The team has overcome a great deal to be here and is about as mentally tough as it gets.  Be interesting to see if they can sustain that.

  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Protect the ball. Don't put it on the ground. Don't throw it to the defense. And you will win in the playoffs.

  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Finding A Way To Win This Year's SB

    Stay patient, dont fall for the NFL is a passing league. Manageable 3rd downs. Not there punt. This kid Allen is real deal, can change Field Position.
    Get Gregory out of Starting unit. He's more worried about keeping Play in front of him, then he is terrible Tackler, when play is executed. Not good in Running game either. Take a chance on a kid, and hope he steps up. We need a thumper there.
    Stop the RUN! Priority #1 if I was Coaching Defense. You give the QB's we are about to face 2nd and 3 or 4, we'll be in trouble. Never mind short on 3rd down.