1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Jaxxon. Show Jaxxon's posts

    First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 7:53 PM EST

    Right now, with the Bungles loss, the Pats are #2 in the AFC.  After looking at everybody else's schedule, 5-1 the rest of the way will probably keep them there.
     

  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from pyegian. Show pyegian's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 7:57 PM EST

    I said before the game that 6-1 would get us the #2 seed.  I'm even more confident of that now, with the Bengals and Steelers losing.  We can all sleep much easier tonight than last Sunday.
     

  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:00 PM EST

    In Response to First-Round Bye...:
    Right now, with the Bungles loss, the Pats are #2 in the AFC.  After looking at everybody else's schedule, 5-1 the rest of the way will probably keep them there.
    Posted by Jaxxon

    By what tie-breaker?




     

  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:05 PM EST

    I don't think you are right.

    None of the Bengals, Pats or Bolts have four common games, and they all have identical records including conference record.

    That means that the tiebreaker slides to strength of victory, and having beaten Pitt twice, I am pretty sure taht the Bengals take that tiebreaker.

    NE could help itself by breaking up New Orleans' undefeated season next week, because adding a quick 10 wins to the SOV stat would be huge.
     

  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from kittycat6969. Show kittycat6969's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:06 PM EST

    We have lost all 3 games in the AFC.  Isn't that terrible for tie breaker purposes.  If we can beat the Saints the rest of the schedule is manageable. 

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    In Response to First-Round Bye... : By what tie-breaker?
    Posted by EnochRoot

     

  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:13 PM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    I don't think you are right. None of the Bengals, Pats or Bolts have four common games, and they all have identical records including conference record. That means that the tiebreaker slides to strength of victory, and having beaten Pitt twice, I am pretty sure taht the Bengals take that tiebreaker. NE could help itself by breaking up New Orleans' undefeated season next week, because adding a quick 10 wins to the SOV stat would be huge.
    Posted by zbellino


    You know more than 99% of sports writers.  You should start sports blog or something.
     

  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:14 PM EST

    In a nutshell, Pats control their playoff destiny.  Win out, they look mighty good and it will all depend on how the Bengals and Chargers finish.  Unless the Colts fall flat on their faces, losing 4 out of their next 6, the AFC road to the SB is passing through the Luke Oil Dome.  For now, though, keep it simple, BEAT THE SAINTS!
     

  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Jaxxon. Show Jaxxon's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...Mea Culpa

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:15 PM EST

    I made a mistake...I was assuming I was looking at the updated standings at CBSportsline -- and I wasn't.

    Actually, after looking as San Diego and Cinci's remaining schedule, the Pats probably have to win out.  San Diego's sked is awfully easy (on paper) and even their only realistic chance for a loss (Dallas) is an out-of-conference game.
     

  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from EnochRoot. Show EnochRoot's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:15 PM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    I don't think you are right. None of the Bengals, Pats or Bolts have four common games, and they all have identical records including conference record. That means that the tiebreaker slides to strength of victory, and having beaten Pitt twice, I am pretty sure taht the Bengals take that tiebreaker. NE could help itself by breaking up New Orleans' undefeated season next week, because adding a quick 10 wins to the SOV stat would be huge.
    Posted by zbellino

    Z, does it slide to victory or does division schedule come into play? The rules don't have a specific application to seeding, so I am looking at the WC three team rules which would make it based on strength of victory as you indicate. But ESPN seems to have it based on Division record which actually falls in line with SOV.

    Of course, NFL.com hasn't even updated the Pats and SD wins and Cincy losses yet.

     

  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from rabbrandy. Show rabbrandy's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:17 PM EST

    we probably will need to win out to finish ahead of the winner of the charger/ bengal game. got to win in miami too, especially if we were to lose to the saints.
     

  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from bobomul. Show bobomul's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:30 PM EST

    TIE BREAKERS
     
    If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker. 2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

    Two Clubs 1. Head-to-head, if applicable. 2. Best won-lost percentage in games played within the conference. 3. Best won-lost percentage in common games, minimum of four. 4. Strength of victory. 5. Strength of schedule. 6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed. 7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed. 8. Best net points in conference games. 9. Best net points in all games. 10. Best net touchdowns in all games. 11. Coin toss.

    Three or More Clubs (Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tiebreaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

     

  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dustcover. Show dustcover's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:35 PM EST

    In Response to First-Round Bye...:
    Right now, with the Bungles loss, the Pats are #2 in the AFC. Posted by Jaxxon

    I believe that tiebreaker rules are as follows:

    1.  Head-to-head, if applicable.
    2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

    Team             Record         Conference        %

    #1    Colts        10-0
    #2    Bengals     7-3                 5-2             .714
    #3   Chargers    7-3                 5-3             .625
    #4   PATS         7-3                 4-3             .571
     

  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from rabbrandy. Show rabbrandy's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:40 PM EST

    well we are tied with the chargers and bengals at 5-3 in the conf. next week is big but the miami game could be huge for both the division and conf.
     

  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from bobomul. Show bobomul's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 8:48 PM EST

    San Diego, Cinci and NE are all 5-3 in conference. 

     

  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from SmokingJoe. Show SmokingJoe's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 9:20 PM EST

    We are all tied based on COnference Record....

    What is the next tie-breaker?
     

  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from SmokingJoe. Show SmokingJoe's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 9:28 PM EST

    FROM CBS SPORTSLINE.....

    AFC Playoff tiebreakers
    • Cincinnati earns the No. 2 seed over San Diego and New England based on strength of victory (.478 over Chargers' .449 and Patriots' .377)
    • San Diego earns the No. 3 seed over New England based on strength of victory (.449 to Patriots' .377)
    • Jacksonville earns the No. 5 seed over Denver and Pittsburgh and based on conference record (5-2 over Broncos' 5-3 and Steelers' 4-3).
    • Pittsburgh earns the No. 6 seed over Denver based on head to head (1-0)

     

  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 10:02 PM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye... : Z, does it slide to victory or does division schedule come into play? The rules don't have a specific application to seeding, so I am looking at the WC three team rules which would make it based on strength of victory as you indicate. But ESPN seems to have it based on Division record which actually falls in line with SOV. Of course, NFL.com hasn't even updated the Pats and SD wins and Cincy losses yet.
    Posted by EnochRoot


    Divisional records are only counted as tiebreakers in divisional ties. As this is a seeding procedure they use the three team wild card tie-breakers.

    Essentially, NE needs Cincy and SD to drop a game, and they need to win out. NE really scr3w3d the pooch last week losing a game they essentially dominated for 3.5 quarters.

    But their bed is made.

    Here is the good news:

    NE's toughest remaining game is against an NFC opponent.

    Cincy and Denver play each other, which means ONE conference loss is automatic, or in the case of the improbable, a sweet tie would do the trick.

    Cincy also has to play the Vikings in Minny, which very well could be a loss.

    SD has to play in Dallas and in Tennesse against a team that a.) runs well and b.) is getting red hot. Hence, there is ample chance for either team to drop two contests.

    Even if NE coughs it up in the Big Easy, they can win out, and with a very tiny bit of luck will secure a first round bye, and at least one game at Gillette.

    NE does not have an easy schedule down the stretch, with essentially five out of six being what I would consider quality opponents, and four out of six being on the road.

    But then, having road games this late in the season down south probably helps NE as they can continue to deploy their wide open passing game later into the season than they typically enjoy.

     

  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 617AcrossDaBoard. Show 617AcrossDaBoard's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 10:15 PM EST

    It'll be nice to have the bye and at least 1 home game but I'm confident we'll be prepared for whatever scenario once the playoffs arrive. The Indy loss was good for us to stay in check but 1 more loss just gives us more material to look at as to why and how we struggle as a team.

    Either way is beneficial as long as we make they playoffs... 11-5 wasn't good enough last year. Let's just focus on the Saints and being there this year// (the playoffs that is).
     

  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jasonh86. Show jasonh86's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 10:26 PM EST

    I actually think San Diego will be closer to getting the #2 seed than Cincy. 

    However, if Cincy beats SD and loses to the Vikings and/or Jests, that will help a TON.  I think the Pats can win out in the AFC, but the Saints game will be very big as well just for the win-loss column, to keep as many losses away as possible so it doesn't come down to tie-breakers.
     

  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from 49Patriots. Show 49Patriots's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 10:38 PM EST

    Hopefully, the Vikings knock the Bengals off the race and Cincy gets motivated to knock the Chargers off the next game. Either way, if we lose to NO, we can expect to spend some time on the road come January.
     

  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 10:52 PM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    Hopefully, the Vikings knock the Bengals off the race and Cincy gets motivated to knock the Chargers off the next game. Either way, if we lose to NO, we can expect to spend some time on the road come January.
    Posted by 49Patriots


    I don't think so. I there were one game on the schedule NE had to lose, and it was my choice, that or the Pantehrs game would be the one. The most important games, in this order are . . .

    1.) MIA - need to take care of this div/conf game. A loss in Joe Robbie (aka, landshark) makes the division more interesting than I want it to be. A win plus a win in Buffalo practically puts it away.
    2.) Jax - at 6-4 (5-2 conf), and with a doable home schedule the next four weeks, they win out, and THEY could be the two seed.
    3.) Houston - another quality opponent with only four losses, IIRC. With a 5-3 conf record they could pose problems.
    4.) Buffalo - winning the division is the most important, and taking care of big bad buffalo is better than beating an NFC team.

    5-6.) Take your pick. Carolina and NO would only count as a loss in the record books, which is better than a divisional or conference loss, and much better than a divisional or conference loss that would yeild direct home field advantage for an oppponent NE might be seeing.
     

  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from 49Patriots. Show 49Patriots's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 11:26 PM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye... : I don't think so. I there were one game on the schedule NE had to lose, and it was my choice, that or the Pantehrs game would be the one. The most important games, in this order are . . . 1.) MIA - need to take care of this div/conf game. A loss in Joe Robbie (aka, landshark) makes the division more interesting than I want it to be. A win plus a win in Buffalo practically puts it away. 2.) Jax - at 6-4 (5-2 conf), and with a doable home schedule the next four weeks, they win out, and THEY could be the two seed. 3.) Houston - another quality opponent with only four losses, IIRC. With a 5-3 conf record they could pose problems. 4.) Buffalo - winning the division is the most important, and taking care of big bad buffalo is better than beating an NFC team. 5-6.) Take your pick. Carolina and NO would only count as a loss in the record books, which is better than a divisional or conference loss, and much better than a divisional or conference loss that would yeild direct home field advantage for an oppponent NE might be seeing.
    Posted by zbellino

    I would rather win out than hope for someone to lose.

     

  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/22/2009 11:53 PM EST

    New England's critical games
    @New Orleans, I make New England 1.7 point favorites
    @Miami, I make New England 1.5 point favorites.

    Cincinnati's critical games
    @Minnesota, I make Cincinnati 3 point underdogs
    @ San Diego, I make Cincinnati 0.1 point favorites (pretty dead even)
    @ NY Jets, I make Cincinnati 0.3 point favorites

    San Diego's critical games
    @Dallas, I make San Diego a 2.6 point underdog
    vs Cincy, I make San Diego a 0.1 point underdog
    Wow does San Diego play a pile of bunnies!
    @Tennessee, 5.2 point favorites
    @Cleveland, 6.6 point favorites
    I don't bother below Cleveland.

    Pittsburgh has lost their head to head tiebreaker with Cincy, is back a game, and has four tough games ahead.

       [X]Ignore Pittsburgh for now.





     

  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/23/2009 9:12 AM EST

    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye...:
    In Response to Re: First-Round Bye... : I would rather win out than hope for someone to lose.
    Posted by 49Patriots


    Me too. But you are missing the point if you think that can happen.

    Even if NE wins out . . .they DO NOT get a bye. Period. Both SD and Cincy have tiebreakers.

    Hence each needs to lose one.

    Hence NE an afford to lose one.
     

  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from Harleyroadking99. Show Harleyroadking99's posts

    Re: First-Round Bye...

    posted at 11/23/2009 9:21 AM EST

    Z you going to the game?