Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    "The 2010 New England Patriots have now passed their 2007 brethren for the top offensive DVOA of all-time, and their win over Green Bay launched them into consideration as the greatest team of the DVOA Era."

    "The Patriots' domination over the rest of the league looks even larger when we look at weighted DVOA. New England is nearly 15 percentage points ahead of the rest of the NFL."

    "Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)"

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-15-dvoa-ratings
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    Great news.  The Pats offense and Brady are #1 in all categories and only got better after a great game against the league's stingiest defense.  Super Bowl here we come!
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    Not sure what that exactly means but I guess it's good.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from chrisakawoody. Show chrisakawoody's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    I think it means they performed better against stingier defenses that did the 2007 Pats.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    So why is SD trumpeted as the best O and D in the league???
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from p-mike. Show p-mike's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]Not sure what that exactly means but I guess it's good.
    Posted by shenanigan[/QUOTE]

    It means that if there isn't a statistic that proves whatever point you're trying to make, just go ahead and invent one.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL : It means that if there isn't a statistic that proves whatever point you're trying to make, just go ahead and invent one.
    Posted by p-mike[/QUOTE]

    I suppose - but various sites try to come up with meaningful ways to make statistics more relevant - over simple yards gained or points scored.  You have to figure in turnovers, quality of opposition, etc, etc.  I don't think they are trying to make the Pats look better than they should be.

    I think this stat and the Quality stats at ColdHardFootballFacts are useful in evaluating performance and predicting or projecting what is to come.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from kansaspatriot. Show kansaspatriot's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]I think it means they performed better against stingier defenses that did the 2007 Pats.
    Posted by chrisakawoody[/QUOTE]

    agreed. this will be remember for years that they played 8 of the top tem rated defense this year and were 8-1. no team can hold a candle to that
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]Not sure what that exactly means but I guess it's good.
    Posted by shenanigan[/QUOTE]

    It rates how well they do in meaningful situations ranked against the league average "replacement" unit, and finally adjusted for the strength of the defensive competition.

    In short, it tells you something that your eyes can see easily, but other stats could lie about. NE's offense has played six of the top ten defenses, and is averaging over 30 ppg against them. 

    SD is the typical team that raw stats can lie for ... most of their stats have come against 90lb weaklings .... hence their offensive DVOA, which is close to 27% behind NE's, reflects the fact that they have played weaker competition and in the process have piled up stats in situations that are less meaningful.

    I still think to finally adjust percentages for individual players FO needs to set up a matrix that subtracts the contribution of surrounding talent.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]So why is SD trumpeted as the best O and D in the league???
    Posted by agcsbill[/QUOTE]
    Some people like simplistic stats. 

    SD is #2 in passing yards, #14 in rushing yards, #1 in passing defense yards and #2 in rushing defense yards.  SD is also 4 games behind the Patriots, who are #10 in passing yards, #15 in rushing yards, #30 in passing defense yards and #15 in rushing defense yards.

    SD's schedule is rather bunny-hop.  This year the AFC West (currently 2 games under .500 as a division) plays all the teams of the NFC West (14 games under .500 as a division) and the AFC South (2 games under .500 as a division).  New England's division (10 games over .500 as a division) plays each team in the AFC North (at .500 as a division) and the NFC North (2 games under .500).

    Even against a goodly amount of bunnies, how does an 8-6 team get such impressive stats?  One way, if your team cares more about yardage stats than winning, is for your offense to throw bombs when you're in the lead in the fourth quarter and run up the middle when you're losing.  This strategy bribes the players with good-looking stats.  On defense, guard against the short run when you're winning and guard against the long bomb when you're losing.  The Patriots do everything exactly the opposite, playing prevent offense and defense.  The Pats typically get way ahead, then coast into a gentle win.

    Next, the Patriots play prevent every single time that the opponents are between their own 5 and the Patriots 40.  The Pats don't want to give up net points, where San Diego tries not to give up yardage.

    Most important, the Patriots haven't turned over the football in six games, and while they have given up a lot of yards they also have pick-sixed a bunch of times.  The Patriots are now +20 in turnovers.  This stats isn't reflected in offensive yardage or in defensive yardage.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from bostatewarrior. Show bostatewarrior's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL : agreed. this will be remember for years that they played 8 of the top tem rated defense this year and were 8-1. no team can hold a candle to that
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    I was going to make fun of you about saying the Pats went 8 and 1 against 8 of the leagues top 10 defenses.  Especially in a thread regarding statistics.

    Then I realized you were simply correct.  Tongue out
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from dkindc. Show dkindc's posts

    Re: Football Outsiders: Patriots easily the best team in NFL

    So Brady should have a field day this Sunday, and the running backs should do really well?

    At least in the first half - then coast?

    Course the Bills aren't bad now, but are they as good as the defenses they have faced the last 2 months?  (outside of the lions)
     

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