Bill Billick talks toxic differential. 

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/toxic-differential-little-known-stat-key-to-predicting-success-wednesdays-with-billick-112812

Interesting stuff.

 

In the end we are left with only 2 things. Stats or opinion.

 

But looking at his “Toxic Differential.” it cleary shows we would be just about at the top of the heap minus the secondary getting burned far too often. And that is the #1 complaint voiced by fans who watch the games. Pass defence.

 

Babe....

I couldn't agree more with you in terms of pass defense in the past. However, I think we are starting to have a good thing going with Dennard, Talib and the rotation we have at safety.

Lets let it play out because it in my opinion is for the first time in a long time looking genuinely promising back there..

In response to HOTBLITZ's comment:

Yes, I was speaking of "so far" in the above reply.

I agree. I am very hopeful Talib + Dennard + McCourty at S + Wilson = solid NFL caliber secondary. I think there are signs that this will be so. Other than some garbage time production from Sanchez, the secondary has looked better since Talib arrived. Often solidifying one part allows the other parts to concentrate on their part more and the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts.

 

This post has been removed.

Miami always plays tough at home and with Houston and SF right after that we'll see that secondary put to the test.  We'll know what we have going into the playoffs.

i thought it was interesting.  My interpretation of the data is: If your defense gives up a lot of plays over 20 yards, you'd better make up for it by more takeaways.

Interesting, but four of the top eight teams on the list are below .500 and have a combined record of 15-29, so I dont know how useful this new stat is in predicting on-field success

I'll be paying more attention this weekend to the Explosive Play component though

Might be enlightening

Thanks for posting

The turnover ratio is pretty real.  Note that some turnovers are better than others, and you can be sure that BB thinks about this when planning a robbery.  A 90 yard pick six not only scores seven points but it takes the opponent back 50 yards or so after the ensuing kickoff, out of field goal range, and it certainly ends the opponent's good chance at a touchdown.  I've always suspected that BB would be glad to trade 100 extra yards given up each game for two extra turnovers.

Counting the 20 yard plays isn't a perfect system.  I assume that any down and distance, anywhere on the field, can be assumed to be approximately equal to a certain number of points.  For example, a team with a first and goal from the 1 has perhaps 6.75 points.  Under my system, given a first and 10 from the opponent's 42, an 8 yard gain pretty much gets the team within field goal range, and that counts for something.  The offense will probably run for the first down, get maybe 5 yards more without trying, and kick the three points if the drive stalls.  Ripping off a 21 yard gain on first and 10 from your own 20 is better than nothing but it's not as valuable as the aforementioned 8 yard gain when you really need it.  Furthermore, a 20 yard gain when your team really needs three touchdowns is almost an offensive error.  A number of teams have ripped off their 20 yard gains in the fourth quarter only to lose the game.

I note that New England is first in the NFL in turnover ratio and nearly last in the NFL in the explosive play ratio.

Confirms something I already know. The Pats D gets TOs, but the Niners defense is better.

In response to AcheNot's comment:
[QUOTE]

Interesting, but four of the top eight teams on the list are below .500 and have a combined record of 15-29, so I dont know how useful this new stat is in predicting on-field success

I'll be paying more attention this weekend to the Explosive Play component though

Might be enlightening

Thanks for posting

_______________________


Yeah, I found this a bit confusing too.  Geez, the Pats allow a lot of big plays on defense.  Everybody should be going deep on us.  It also shows the Pats offense not to be much of an explosive one.

 

In response to BabeParilli's comment:
[QUOTE]

Interesting stuff.

 

In the end we are left with only 2 things. Stats or opinion.

But looking at his “Toxic Differential.” it cleary shows we would be just about at the top of the heap minus the secondary getting burned far too often. And that is the #1 complaint voiced by fans who watch the games. Pass defence.

 ___________________________________


Babe.   See what you and others here think of this.  The offensive and defensive explosion numbers look like to me that the offense doesn't have enough to carry a defense that allows so many big plays.  The turnovers are the only thing that allows the Pats to over come the lapses of the defense.   Thoughts on this please.

 

In response to garytx's comment:
Yeah, I found this a bit confusing too.  Geez, the Pats allow a lot of big plays on defense.  Everybody should be going deep on us.  It also shows the Pats offense not to be much of an explosive one.

Explosive plays are great, but I'll take a 14-15 play drive (with no EPs) that uses up 7 minutes on the clock anytime

I bet Miami beats NE in EPD on Sunday, but the Pats still win by three touchdowns

 

Stats are hard to construe. Everything about football is matchup based.

Baltimore had the second best run defense in the league last season. From what I remember, every time Ngata was taken off the field in the championship game, BJGE had a pretty easy time running the ball.

NYG had a a pretty bad defense statistically last season. However, they won because theyre defense matched up very well against pass heavy teams.

GB has a very explosive offense...except when it faces a team with a strong DLine. Even in his 1 good game against a strong d line (ARZ), Rodgers was only 14 of 30 for 218 yards. A strong defensive line matches up greatly against their O.

You can't generalize statistics, because every team is different. Your best shot is comparing similar teams.

 

HOU has good defensive stats. But a lot of those stats are skewed because they play a lot of run heavy/QB lacking teams. They lack a pass rush outside of Watt. For a team that can throw the ball as well as the Pats, I would say the ARZ defense matches up better against the NE offense than Houston's. You could argue overall HOU has ARZ beat, but in a matchup against NE, ARZ has NE beat.

 

I honestly can't wait for the HOU and SF game, mostly the SF game.

SF has the best overall defense in my opinion. However, I do believe the Pats are one of a few teams that can exploit it.

In their 3 worst games (MINN, NYG, STL) the opposition pounded the ball (34 rushes+7 Ponder runs for Minn,  34 rushes for NYG, 36 rushes for STL)

I thought the SEA gameplan earlier this season was absolutely terrible. SF and SEA are very similar defenses (Strong front 7's with a physical secondary). If you plan to air it out (like GB, Det, and NO) then this secondary is good enough to beat up your WRs and create small windows.

You can't beat SF with just a great running game or just a great passing game. SF D is one of the few D's that actually  require a balanced O to beat them.

Baring an unusual bad day from that defense, I don't think a Brady show is good enough to beat them. We're going to need to see a Brady and Ridley show.

You can beat HOU with a Brady show though