Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

         The free agency free-for-all commences March 12th, at 4 p.m.. It will be wild! It will be exciting!! It will be intriguing!!! BUT...will it be fruitful for the teams who choose to heavily partake?? Look no further than last year, when the Philadelphia Eagles seemingly signed every high profile free agent available? Philly was being referred to as "The Dream Team". We all witnessed how that turned out.

         In other words, my friends, let's not get too excited or depressed about what signings take place over the next few days. Here's a very interesting article on the matter:

    Free agency: Bargains and busts

    Unlike the NBA, the NFL and its teams frown on their best players skipping from town to town while in the prime of their careers. So it’s worth understanding that the best players slated for this year’s free agency already have been taken off the market through franchise tags and multi-year deals in advance of Tuesday’s kickoff.  What’s left are a few gems and a whole lot of question marks, red flags and older name players well past their prime. Judging any deal obviously depends on the compensation involved. But as a rule of thumb, here is one person’s potential pitfalls to avoid and seven players to keep an eye on:  

    I. The Rules in 2013:

    1.) Over 28 in 2013? Move along, pal:

    The typical NFL player declines too rapidly and sometimes without warning. Signing older players can saddle a salary cap with too much “dead money” that’s still on the books while the player is out of the league. Sorry Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Sebastian Vollmer, Osi Umenyiora, Dwight Freeney, Charles Woodson, Ronde Barber and Brian Urlacher, to name a few.

    2.) RBs? No thanks:

    Unless Adrian Peterson hits the market, skip running backs with high mileage. There are too many good, young, cheap models available to go spending money on a used one. Sorry Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson and slippery little LaRod Stephens-Howling.

    3.) Injuries? No way, no how:  

    A doctor can clear a guy, but if the guy’s body is breaking down, it’s breaking down. Jake Long is 28 and might be the best left tackle of his generation. But are you willing to pay more than $10 million a year to a man who might be heading down the same path that Tony Boselli traveled? Sorry Jake, Brent Grimes, Danny Amendola, Fred Davis, and Kenny Phillips.

    4.) Former first-rounders? Beware:

    Watch out for household names. If a former first-round draft pick is on this list in his 20s, he’s either a major injury risk, unreliable or he’s been a flop for the past four years. Take on a resurrection project only when it’s financially easy to bail when it fails. Sorry Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

    II. Seven to select: 

    1.) Keenan Lewis, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

    Pittsburgh not only stands to lose the best receiver and overall player available (Mike Wallace), it’s also in danger of losing the best cornerback. He’s a big, confident corner on the rise. And he’s only 26.

    2.) Connor Barwin, OLB, Houston Texans: 

    His sack total dipped from 11.5 in 2011 to three last year. But he played 94 percent of Houston’s defensive snaps. He also switched positions during the season. A target for 3-4 teams. He’s also only 26.  

    3.) Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans: 

    A 6-4, 235-pounder with the athleticism of a big receiver. He had a career-high four TDs last year and doesn’t turn 26 until April. Could become a star in a better offense with a better QB.

    4.) Rey Maualuga, MLB, Cincinnati Bengals: 

    In a market virtually devoid of quality inside linebackers stands a special 6-1, 254-pounder with 59 starts at age 26.

    5.) Cliff Avril, DE, Detroit Lions: 

    He’s not the most complete player, but he’s the kind of good, young pass rusher that rarely hits the open market. At 26, he also has plenty of time to become a great pass rusher.  

    6.) Louis Vasquez, RG, San Diego Chargers: 

    He turns only 26 in April. A 6-4, 330-pounder with 54 starts in 54 games.

    7.) Sean Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins: 

    He’s not the most consistent player, but he’s 25 years old and plays cornerback at 6-3, 218 pounds. 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/196704311.html?refer=y

    Thoughts?  

     

     

     

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from WazzuWheatfarmer. Show WazzuWheatfarmer's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    I like your list.  Hope to land a couple of these guys.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rocky. Show Rocky's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to Godvernment's comment:

    Buyer beware! if you sign Wes Welker do not throw him the ball at a crucial moment in a playoff game!



    +1  : (

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    1) Lewis....yes and I might add that BB has to have a back=up plan if Talib leaves. Others Derek Cox etc....

    2) Would Barwin be good with his hand in the dirt (4-3 DE) opposite Jones? Funny how some of these players came up on earlier draft threads.

    3) The Pats are set at TE if Ballard is healthy along with Gronk and Hernandez. Cook will want money and I only want someone to throw out there on PATs.

    4) Spikes is the similar to Mauluaga and both can be liabilities in coverage. Spikes knows the system.

    5) Avirl is interesting in that he also would be 4-3 DE. I get the point we need to bookend Jones. Was production due to DTs?

    6) Vasquez if Thomas bolts...

    7) As always alot hinges on what happens with Talib and to some degree Dennard.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    BTW Good post. TP

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

         The free agency free-for-all commences March 12th, at 4 p.m.. It will be wild! It will be exciting!! It will be intriguing!!! BUT...will it be fruitful for the teams who choose to heavily partake?? Look no further than last year, when the Philadelphia Eagles seemingly signed every high profile free agent available? Philly was being referred to as "The Dream Team". We all witnessed how that turned out.

         In other words, my friends, let's not get too excited or depressed about what signings take place over the next few days. Here's a very interesting article on the matter:

    Free agency: Bargains and busts

    Unlike the NBA, the NFL and its teams frown on their best players skipping from town to town while in the prime of their careers. So it’s worth understanding that the best players slated for this year’s free agency already have been taken off the market through franchise tags and multi-year deals in advance of Tuesday’s kickoff.  What’s left are a few gems and a whole lot of question marks, red flags and older name players well past their prime. Judging any deal obviously depends on the compensation involved. But as a rule of thumb, here is one person’s potential pitfalls to avoid and seven players to keep an eye on:  

    I. The Rules in 2013:

    1.) Over 28 in 2013? Move along, pal:

    The typical NFL player declines too rapidly and sometimes without warning. Signing older players can saddle a salary cap with too much “dead money” that’s still on the books while the player is out of the league. Sorry Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Sebastian Vollmer, Osi Umenyiora, Dwight Freeney, Charles Woodson, Ronde Barber and Brian Urlacher, to name a few.

    2.) RBs? No thanks:

    Unless Adrian Peterson hits the market, skip running backs with high mileage. There are too many good, young, cheap models available to go spending money on a used one. Sorry Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Felix Jones, Steven Jackson and slippery little LaRod Stephens-Howling.

    3.) Injuries? No way, no how:  

    A doctor can clear a guy, but if the guy’s body is breaking down, it’s breaking down. Jake Long is 28 and might be the best left tackle of his generation. But are you willing to pay more than $10 million a year to a man who might be heading down the same path that Tony Boselli traveled? Sorry Jake, Brent Grimes, Danny Amendola, Fred Davis, and Kenny Phillips.

    4.) Former first-rounders? Beware:

    Watch out for household names. If a former first-round draft pick is on this list in his 20s, he’s either a major injury risk, unreliable or he’s been a flop for the past four years. Take on a resurrection project only when it’s financially easy to bail when it fails. Sorry Sedrick Ellis, Glenn Dorsey, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

    II. Seven to select: 

    1.) Keenan Lewis, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 

    Pittsburgh not only stands to lose the best receiver and overall player available (Mike Wallace), it’s also in danger of losing the best cornerback. He’s a big, confident corner on the rise. And he’s only 26.

    2.) Connor Barwin, OLB, Houston Texans: 

    His sack total dipped from 11.5 in 2011 to three last year. But he played 94 percent of Houston’s defensive snaps. He also switched positions during the season. A target for 3-4 teams. He’s also only 26.  

    3.) Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans: 

    A 6-4, 235-pounder with the athleticism of a big receiver. He had a career-high four TDs last year and doesn’t turn 26 until April. Could become a star in a better offense with a better QB.

    4.) Rey Maualuga, MLB, Cincinnati Bengals: 

    In a market virtually devoid of quality inside linebackers stands a special 6-1, 254-pounder with 59 starts at age 26.

    5.) Cliff Avril, DE, Detroit Lions: 

    He’s not the most complete player, but he’s the kind of good, young pass rusher that rarely hits the open market. At 26, he also has plenty of time to become a great pass rusher.  

    6.) Louis Vasquez, RG, San Diego Chargers: 

    He turns only 26 in April. A 6-4, 330-pounder with 54 starts in 54 games.

    7.) Sean Smith, CB, Miami Dolphins: 

    He’s not the most consistent player, but he’s 25 years old and plays cornerback at 6-3, 218 pounds. 

    http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/196704311.html?refer=y

    Thoughts?  

     




    i will hold u to it in the future as it pans out

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from looneyman. Show looneyman's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    I would be happy with Lewis.

    I wonder if 5/30 would do it .

    Let Sea Bass walk. I personally

    like Phil Loadholt. He is a mauler 

    like Mankins.

    What are your thoughts on

    Loadholt , James Harrison, 

    Reed, Barwin and who am I missing.

     
  9. This post has been removed.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to looneyman's comment:

    I would be happy with Lewis.

    I wonder if 5/30 would do it .

    Let Sea Bass walk. I personally

    like Phil Loadholt. He is a mauler 

    like Mankins.

    What are your thoughts on

    Loadholt , James Harrison, 

    Reed, Barwin and who am I missing.




    i think harrison back to steelers possibly and reed stays in balt

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    DL ...Desmond Bryant, Casey Hapton, Seymour, Osi, Abraham, Trevor Scott

    LB...Barwin, Calvin Pace

    DB...Grimes, Talib, Goldson, Wilson, Reed, Smith

    Wr...Welker, Amendola, Collie, Cribbs, Barden, Jordan Shipley, Donnie Avery...draft an outside guy in the second round and just keep Lloyd.

    ^^Just a few names...some high priced...some low price depth.

     

     

     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to JohnHannahrulz's comment:

    1) Lewis....yes and I might add that BB has to have a back=up plan if Talib leaves. Others Derek Cox etc....

    RESPONSE: Hey Hogg! The Pats likely will sign a CB, WR, and an OT. I can see them going hot and heavy after Sean Smith. Talib is likely the fall-back plan. 

    2) Would Barwin be good with his hand in the dirt (4-3 DE) opposite Jones? Funny how some of these players came up on earlier draft threads.

    RESPONSE: I don't see Barwin as a fit for the Pats.

    3) The Pats are set at TE if Ballard is healthy along with Gronk and Hernandez. Cook will want money and I only want someone to throw out there on PATs.

    RESPONSE: Agreed.

    4) Spikes is the similar to Mauluaga and both can be liabilities in coverage. Spikes knows the system.

    RESPONSE: Agreed. That said, I've always have liked Maulauaga. He has a mean streak.

    5) Avirl is interesting in that he also would be 4-3 DE. I get the point we need to bookend Jones. Was production due to DTs?

    RESPONSE: I see the Pats using their #1 draft pick on a DE/DT. This is a deep draft at that position.

    6) Vasquez if Thomas bolts...

    RESPONSE: I don't see Vasquez coming here. Thomas would be a much cheaper option. Plus, Vasquez is a RG. Next year, Marcus Cannon will be the Pats' strating RG. The Pats will need an OT. My guess is that a decision has been made not to resign Sebastien Vollmer, due to his high contract demands, and injury concerns (his chronic back trouble, and now, a gimpy knee).

    7) As always alot hinges on what happens with Talib and to some degree Dennard.




     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to RidingWithTheKing's comment:

    That list blows minus Barwin.   Every top tier FA is way too pricey. Avril and Smith are too expensive.

     




    every FA - and 75% of the players overall - are "too pricey" for the pats

    jeez ur tighter with kraft's money than he is

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to mthurl's comment:

     

    DL ...Desmond Bryant, Casey Hapton, Seymour, Osi, Abraham, Trevor Scott

    LB...Barwin, Calvin Pace

    DB...Grimes, Talib, Goldson, Wilson, Reed, Smith

    Wr...Welker, Amendola, Collie, Cribbs, Barden, Jordan Shipley, Donnie Avery...draft an outside guy in the second round and just keep Lloyd.

    ^^Just a few names...some high priced...some low price depth.

    RESPONSE:

         Welker likely will stay. Edelman, too. The Pats need him for his punt returning capabilities, as well as a receiver. Talib or Smith will likely be a Patriot. Be interesting to see if the Pats make a run at Jennings...after releasing Brandon Lloyd. Desmond Bryant is interesting. At age 27, he could be a decent pick-up: http://www.raiders.com/team/roster/desmond-bryant/37d7a7ae-fff9-4b50-9373-7aaeb0355903/

         Dashon Goldson looks to be too expensive. Supposhttp://www.raiders.com/team/roster/desmond-bryant/37d7a7ae-fff9-4b50-9373-7aaeb0355903/edly, 4 other teams with more cap room than the Pats have are pursuing him: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/11/four-teams-pursuing-dashon-goldson/

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to looneyman's comment:

    I would be happy with Lewis.

    I wonder if 5/30 would do it .

    Let Sea Bass walk. I personally

    like Phil Loadholt. He is a mauler 

    like Mankins.

    What are your thoughts on

    Loadholt , James Harrison, 

    Reed, Barwin and who am I missing.



         Want the Pats to have nothing to do with James Harrison. Don't know if Barwin is a good fit for the Pats' "D". He's a seems better suited to being a 3/4 OLB, than a DE. Ed Reed is old...and may prefer Indy over the Pats. Reed has won his SB. May now be looking for the role of a mentor with a young team...and to maximize the amount of money he receives. Indy will probably pay him more. Don't think much of Loadholt.   

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Quagmire3. Show Quagmire3's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    1) Lewis....yes and I might add that BB has to have a back=up plan if Talib leaves. Others Derek Cox etc....

    RESPONSE: Hey Hogg! The Pats likely will sign a CB, WR, and an OT. I can see them going hot and heavy after Sean Smith. Talib is likely the fall-back plan. 

    2) Would Barwin be good with his hand in the dirt (4-3 DE) opposite Jones? Funny how some of these players came up on earlier draft threads.

    RESPONSE: I don't see Barwin as a fit for the Pats.

    3) The Pats are set at TE if Ballard is healthy along with Gronk and Hernandez. Cook will want money and I only want someone to throw out there on PATs.

    RESPONSE: Agreed.

    4) Spikes is the similar to Mauluaga and both can be liabilities in coverage. Spikes knows the system.

    RESPONSE: Agreed. That said, I've always have liked Maulauaga. He has a mean streak.

    5) Avirl is interesting in that he also would be 4-3 DE. I get the point we need to bookend Jones. Was production due to DTs?

    RESPONSE: I see the Pats using their #1 draft pick on a DE/DT. This is a deep draft at that position.

    6) Vasquez if Thomas bolts...

    RESPONSE: I don't see Vasquez coming here. Thomas would be a much cheaper option. Plus, Vasquez is a RG. Next year, Marcus Cannon will be the Pats' strating RG. The Pats will need an OT. My guess is that a decision has been made not to resign Sebastien Vollmer, due to his high contract demands, and injury concerns (his chronic back trouble, and now, a gimpy knee).

    7) As always alot hinges on what happens with Talib and to some degree Dennard.

    [/QUOTE]


    Ref #4: Spikes contract is up after this year and I dont expect him to be back. A good preemptive strike would be getting Mauluaga now for 2-3 years if the money is right.

     
  18. This post has been removed.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

         For the Pats, it's time to consider letting the soon to be 32 year old Wes Welker walk, and rebuild their secondary: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/back-to-basics-new-england-patriots-can-win-even-thrive-without-wes-welker/21678/

         The Pats simply can't afford the luxury of allocating $7-8mil. per season for an aging slot receiver. It's a very tough call. We'll see what happens.  

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from teegee. Show teegee's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    In response to TexasPat's comment:

     

    In response to mthurl's comment:

     

    DL ...Desmond Bryant, Casey Hapton, Seymour, Osi, Abraham, Trevor Scott

    LB...Barwin, Calvin Pace

    DB...Grimes, Talib, Goldson, Wilson, Reed, Smith

    Wr...Welker, Amendola, Collie, Cribbs, Barden, Jordan Shipley, Donnie Avery...draft an outside guy in the second round and just keep Lloyd.

    ^^Just a few names...some high priced...some low price depth.

    RESPONSE:

         Welker likely will stay. Edelman, too. The Pats need him for his punt returning capabilities, as well as a receiver. Talib or Smith will likely be a Patriot. Be interesting to see if the Pats make a run at Jennings...after releasing Brandon Lloyd. Desmond Bryant is interesting. At age 27, he could be a decent pick-up: http://www.raiders.com/team/roster/desmond-bryant/37d7a7ae-fff9-4b50-9373-7aaeb0355903/

         Dashon Goldson looks to be too expensive. Supposhttp://www.raiders.com/team/roster/desmond-bryant/37d7a7ae-fff9-4b50-9373-7aaeb0355903/edly, 4 other teams with more cap room than the Pats have are pursuing him: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/03/11/four-teams-pursuing-dashon-goldson/

     

     

     


    Now if only Bryant could get a better mug shot.  Excellent post!

     

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from tenace4life. Show tenace4life's posts

    Re: Free Agency: Let the Buyer Beware!

    If Edleman goes then Shipley would be a great backup for the slot postion . . . in three years at Miami Wes did not have 100 catches so I'd say Brady and the Pats offensive sceme helped to make him . . .  at Miami he was mostly the punt/kickoff returner but did have 60 plus catches his third year (he's doubled that with us). 

    Jordan's receiving stats are almost the same for the three years he has been in the NFL and he missed a lot of the '11 season . . . plus he can return kickoffs and punts . . . I think he would be an upgrade over Edleman.

     
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