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Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    In response to mthurl's comment:

     

    Don't really know why it was bumped, but it's a good thread. To me the key is still Armstead...we need another talented big guy, if we don't get that from him (or another), is Kelley enough?

     

    I remember when we were winning those Super Bowls, we could roll out three superior defensive linemen and that was key. At one point we had three first round picks starting on that line (Wilfork, Seymore, Warren), those were three 300 pounders that could move...and not be moved. I remember the day Wilfork fell into our laps - I was so excited - I watched him destroy tripple blocks in college...tripple!! He would just power into two guys and then run right over the other to blow up plays. Parcells at the time said you could build an entire team around Wilfork, he was right. It really can't be understated how much he does for this defense, he is the one guy who if goes down the lights will go out. I saw Mayo go down for four weeks and Guyton came in and with Wilfork in front of him, it didn't matter.

    We need three of them...we got Kelley...we need one more.

     




    Warren and Seymour were top 15 picks.  I don't think we are going to have another one of those anytime soon.  I would love to have another guy to go along with Kelly and Vince, but DT might be the thinnest position in the NFL.  Are there any defenses in the NFL right now that can put out a line that rivals what the dynasty teams had?  I have high hopes for Armstead as well, but I think we're going to have to make due with what we have (which should be better than last year as Kelly appears to be a pretty big upgrade to Love and Deaderick).

     



    I agree and really Wilfork should of been a top 15 pick (easy), I just hope we have enough because I've been surprised how thin we've been at that spot for four years.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

     

    I see surprise kids coming from other teams all the time. Lets be real,  the picks Pryor, Deaderick, Brace, etc all hurt this team by not providing anything. I like Kelly but of course you need more. Guys get hurt. My biggest problem is seeing things like last year. We played Wilfork and Love by themselves on the line for half a season before Deaderick made the field and allowed those guys to rest. We wasted roster spots on them last year. With a whole offseason, if we come away with only Kelly, thats disappointing. Armstead aint gonna make the team if he stays hurt. Thats my point and whats after that? Fortson?  We got waaay too many fringe players that play olb/de and not enough pure 3-4 Ends. If they arent there, then draft another position but dont draft stiffs just to say u did.

    "Take care of my B*tch, I may need her back in a couple years"

    Brady to Manning after Wes signed with Denver

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

    This seems like a good one to bump. Look at the comments on this thread Wozzy. Some like Z are a little hesitant to say what he will be, but you clearly are leading the charge. You say on page 1 that you expect him to start day 1 in the 3-4. Mt Hurl also noted he is like a 2nd round pick and you said even though he was signed, you consider him a draft pick. I'll go back a but further and find more.

     

    "Take care of my B*tch, I may need her back in a couple years"

    Brady to Manning after Wes signed with Denver



    You seem to think I am denying my saying Armstead will be a good player, I'm not.  I'm saying lumping Armstead and Vega into the same boat is nonsensical, Vega was a long shot and didn't even play the same position.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

     

    This seems like a good one to bump. Look at the comments on this thread Wozzy. Some like Z are a little hesitant to say what he will be, but you clearly are leading the charge. You say on page 1 that you expect him to start day 1 in the 3-4. Mt Hurl also noted he is like a 2nd round pick and you said even though he was signed, you consider him a draft pick. I'll go back a but further and find more.

     

    "Take care of my B*tch, I may need her back in a couple years"

    Brady to Manning after Wes signed with Denver

     



    Are you bumping this about Kelly or Armstead?

     

    If Kelley, I'm still on the fence, not about whether he starts but about his total impact as a player. And a lot of that has to do with how much he can see the field. He has the potential to be a good player here. I don't think he'll be a dominant force though, but a guy who assists by offering something that NE doesn't currently have -- a big man who can get into the backfield a bit. 

    On the snaps ... you could be looking at a guy that gets you 25-35% of the snaps? Or are you looking at someone who is going to give you 40-60% A workhorse 70-90%?

     

    Vince Wilfork led the charge last season totalling 888 of 1096 defensive snaps, 81%. That is actually quite a bit for a big man.

    Love finished up behind Fork with 543 of 1096 defensive snaps for 49% with Brandon Dreaderick on his heels at 374 of 1096 for 34%.

    The Pats were only in their 4-3 under base front for 40% of the snaps, and Love really filled that "undertackle" type role, next to Wilfork's "hybrid" role where he was flexed around the front in various one and two gap assignments.

    Because of the alignment the Raiders run, Kelley has been in the 70-80% area the last few seasons, notching 73% last season with a total of 756 snaps.

    I don't think NE will need that many snaps from him, and looking at his skillset and its synergies with Willfork's I think they could bother get a breather more often than they are used to.

    1.) Tommy Kelley is an average run defender. There is a great breakdown of this in his Scouts Inc report, and in a feature on Bleacher Report.

    2.) Tommy Kelley is great at shooting gaps when he has someone there to get the heat off of him (witness how he really blossomed in the respect when Oakland brought in Sey).

    3.) VW isn't the best pass rusher but is more of a garbage eater.

    Perhaps snaps in base will see an even distribution, but he gives them an option to breath Wilfork on some sub-packages with three man fronts.  

    Given the amount NE subs, it might not be an issue overall. I think penciling him in to start is easy, partly because he is a quality player, partly because NE has no other great options up front, partly because starting in NE (and the NFL) isn't the load that it used to be.

    I think NE will use him effectively, but will limit his snap count. He is a guy who can play three downs, but will get spells. Barring injuries, I think he will produce for 45-65% of the snaps, and will do so productively. 

    I think that keeps him fresh, and it allows him to complicate things for offenses espcially from sub packages and on later downs, where NE has lacked a presence like that. He adds a dimension, in that regard, that Love never did. Though I don't think he adds it for many more snaps, and should slot in just a bit more, while letting Wilfork rest a little.  




    I bumped it more so to look at Armstead maybe getting cut but I appreciate the info on Kelly as well. I agree he is more of a sub rusher than a run defender but I think the Pats play him a lot. They dont have much else. The other option is hybrid fronts. 2-2- 5's, 3-3-5's like last year and the big nickel. IN Nickel I think you see guys subbing in like Collins, Bequette, Benard, Buchanan,etc. So Kelly can rest when they go to subpackages. I mean there is talent there but a guy like J.Jones didnt sign for THAT much. Would have liked to see less quantity and maybe a couple cant miss free agents. We tried for Red Bryant 2 years ago and were too cheap and then got Fanene who fleeced us with his bad knee injury we should have known about. Got to spend there sooner or later but due to Wilforks conctract, they probably have reached thier spending limit with D-lineman..

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

     

     

    We got waaay too many fringe players that play olb/de and not enough pure 3-4 Ends. 

     

     



    So. NE doesn't run a "3-4" and haven't for a few seasons. Jones also put on another 10 pounds and ha come in looking like 270-5 lb guy. NE doesn't need any more 300 lb guys just as depth ... the questions we are looking at should be ... what can be expected at DE from some combination of Jones and Ninkovich, et al. Not about the rare situations where TK might be lined up at end.  

     

    They run a 43 under-hybrid. It really only requires two big men. You still need a three or four big guys, but Dreaderick, et al, can suffice as depth

    Tommy Kelley is an improvemnt in this regard, he is a far better pass rusher than Love. That is enough for me.  



    Deaderick, Love, Pryror are all OFF the team. Where you been?

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from TripleOG. Show TripleOG's posts

    Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to TripleOG's comment:

     


    I bumped it more so to look at Armstead maybe getting cut but I appreciate the info on Kelly as well. I agree he is more of a sub rusher than a run defender but I think the Pats play him a lot. They dont have much else. The other option is hybrid fronts. 2-2- 5's, 3-3-5's like last year and the big nickel. IN Nickel I think you see guys subbing in like Collins, Bequette, Benard, Buchanan,etc. So Kelly can rest when they go to subpackages. I mean there is talent there but a guy like J.Jones didnt sign for THAT much. Would have liked to see less quantity and maybe a couple cant miss free agents. We tried for Red Bryant 2 years ago and were too cheap and then got Fanene who fleeced us with his bad knee injury we should have known about. Got to spend there sooner or later but due to Wilforks conctract, they probably have reached thier spending limit with D-lineman..

     

     

    Gotcha ... BB has loaded up on edge rushers in the draft, so it will be interesting to see how he deploys these guys.

    I have to say on TK, I actually think a key area where he can contribute is in sub-packages, getting Wilfork some rest (he's been playing most of those too). 

    If NE stays true to form the last few seasons, playing between 35% and 45% of their team snaps from their "Base" where you need two DTs, I see Kelly and Fork garnering close to all opf those snaps, accoutning for a 35% of teams snaps apiece (a 40% team average minus "wind" snaps when they will need a break). 

    ~5% of the snaps are in short yardage, where they will both likely be used as well ... more or less. 

    And if NE stays in "sub" sets with 5 or more DBs for ~55% of the snaps, they have another option than running Wilfork out there each time 3/4 of the time they are "subbed" for a whopping 80% of total snaps.  

    Each of them can carry some of that load, picking up some.

    Maybe dropping VWs reps to 3/5ths the sub package snaps, so about 70% of total defensive snaps, while giving TK some too 2/5ths for about 55% to 60% of total defensive snaps.   

    It's TK's ability as a penetration DT that fascinates me and presents possibilities, so I'd like to see what he looks like in the ub on passing downs.




    I hear you. They just need to find a way to keep the big fella fresh for the playoffs. How that is done is not concerning as long as they do it. I agree that TK can also help in sub packages but I was hoping we would get that form the hybrid guys so Kelly can be fresh as well. Fortson is gonna need to play some as well.

     
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