Re: Gasper pre-draft: Have Pats improved their D?
posted at 8/13/2013 2:23 PM EDT
In response to TripleOG's comment:
This seems like a good one to bump. Look at the comments on this thread Wozzy. Some like Z are a little hesitant to say what he will be, but you clearly are leading the charge. You say on page 1 that you expect him to start day 1 in the 3-4. Mt Hurl also noted he is like a 2nd round pick and you said even though he was signed, you consider him a draft pick. I'll go back a but further and find more.
"Take care of my B*tch, I may need her back in a couple years"
Brady to Manning after Wes signed with Denver
Are you bumping this about Kelly or Armstead?
If Kelley, I'm still on the fence, not about whether he starts but about his total impact as a player. And a lot of that has to do with how much he can see the field. He has the potential to be a good player here. I don't think he'll be a dominant force though, but a guy who assists by offering something that NE doesn't currently have -- a big man who can get into the backfield a bit.
On the snaps ... you could be looking at a guy that gets you 25-35% of the snaps? Or are you looking at someone who is going to give you 40-60% A workhorse 70-90%?
Vince Wilfork led the charge last season totalling 888 of 1096 defensive snaps, 81%. That is actually quite a bit for a big man.
Love finished up behind Fork with 543 of 1096 defensive snaps for 49% with Brandon Dreaderick on his heels at 374 of 1096 for 34%.
The Pats were only in their 4-3 under base front for 40% of the snaps, and Love really filled that "undertackle" type role, next to Wilfork's "hybrid" role where he was flexed around the front in various one and two gap assignments.
Because of the alignment the Raiders run, Kelley has been in the 70-80% area the last few seasons, notching 73% last season with a total of 756 snaps.
I don't think NE will need that many snaps from him, and looking at his skillset and its synergies with Willfork's I think they could bother get a breather more often than they are used to.
1.) Tommy Kelley is an average run defender. There is a great breakdown of this in his Scouts Inc report, and in a feature on Bleacher Report.
2.) Tommy Kelley is great at shooting gaps when he has someone there to get the heat off of him (witness how he really blossomed in the respect when Oakland brought in Sey).
3.) VW isn't the best pass rusher but is more of a garbage eater.
Perhaps snaps in base will see an even distribution, but he gives them an option to breath Wilfork on some sub-packages with three man fronts.
Given the amount NE subs, it might not be an issue overall. I think penciling him in to start is easy, partly because he is a quality player, partly because NE has no other great options up front, partly because starting in NE (and the NFL) isn't the load that it used to be.
I think NE will use him effectively, but will limit his snap count. He is a guy who can play three downs, but will get spells. Barring injuries, I think he will produce for 45-65% of the snaps, and will do so productively.
I think that keeps him fresh, and it allows him to complicate things for offenses espcially from sub packages and on later downs, where NE has lacked a presence like that. He adds a dimension, in that regard, that Love never did. Though I don't think he adds it for many more snaps, and should slot in just a bit more, while letting Wilfork rest a little.