Getting ahead of myself...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Getting ahead of myself...

    Today's win filled me with enough confidence that I am starting to look ahead at how the AFC may play out this season. 

    I think the Patriots are a lock to take home the AFC East (I still felt that way at 3-3) and after today I am more sure of it, but this team does not get judge on division titles so I want to look at where that will put them. The Patriots post-bye schedule is not easy. The technically have 5 games against teams over .500, but 3 of those are the Colts and the Dolphins so I am not terribly worried about them. The Jets on Thanksgiving is no gimme (I doubt they will struggle against them twice in one season, but the Jets maybe 5-5 or 3-7 at that point - they might be a desperate team). The Mon/Sun Texans/49ers back-to-back is the obvious point for a stumble. I feel like best case is to beat the Texans and lose to the 49ers (who have full rest after a home game vs the Dolphins). If the are going to lose one more game, make it non-conference...

    In the AFC North, I expect the Steelers to over take the Ravens. That is good news for the Patriots as the Steelers have 3 conference losses already. Since they do not play each other that will probably be the tie breaker. If the Patriots were to lose two more conference games so that they ended up with the same record in the AFC, the Steelers would probably have a better overall record at that point. Pittsburgh does take on the Giants next week which will let us know if they are for real.

    In the South, I am surprised Houston has not clinched it yet. Even if the Patriots beat them in Foxoboro in December, I would think the Texans will hang on for the number one seed, and the Patriots will end up travelling there at some point in the playoffs.

    The AFC West is interesting, the Broncos are probably going to win a terrible division. I would actually be surprised if another team can even finish .500 out there. The Pats have the tiebreak over them, but Denver's schedule for the rest of the year is the easiest in the NFL. The only have one team over .500 (Baltimore) left on their schedule.

    Looking at all of this, I feel like the Patriots have little margin for error the rest of the season (in terms of the bye - it would take a Red Sox circa 2011 collapse for them not to make the playoffs). Even if the Patriots can split the Texans/49ers back-to-back (which is a short week), one other loss along the way may cost them the bye since I think it is reasonable to expect the Texans to finish 13-3 and either the winner of the North (be it Pittsburgh or Baltimore) or the Broncos to be 12-4.

    Of course, the Pats, Broncos and Steelers/Ravens could all end up in a three way tie (at 11-5 or 12-4) for the second spot. In that case, there are so many permutations involving who the teams other losses occur to over that stretch (Baltimore and Broncos still play each other). I am not going to try to figure it all out right now.

    I know I am getting ahead myself, but it is a bye week...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from AFNAV130. Show AFNAV130's posts

    Re: Getting ahead of myself...

    I would tend to agree with everything you said about playoff seeding.  The only caution I take is from todays game is can the Pats be as precise as they were today.  They looked good today, but I will say it was the best officiated game the Pats have had this year. Other than the standard non holding calls on Big Vince and Jones, the officials called the game evenly.  No bogus/phantom holding calls/PI helping the Rams.  There was only one non call that should have been called on the Pats and that was on Lloyd blocking a screen.  That was a penalty but wasn't called. However, the PIs that St Louis got were PIs, with the last one being the least legit, but still same DB, gonna get that called.

    Basically what I am saying is you saw what the Pats can do when they're recievers aren't being held (Gronk being one prime candidate) and the D not getting jacked with phony PI/holding calls. They are great offensively and if its called legit then not much can be done to stop them. They blitzed more today which was nice to see and needs to be done more.

    The only thing that bothers me right now is the tie breaker between the Pats and the Ravens.  The Ravens hold it, because it was a bag job by the officials right down to the last field goal.  Watch a replay of that game with the penalties called on the Pats and the announcers saying "ummm that wasn't a penalty" (multiple times) and todays with the PIs "Yep thats PI, can't do that" (multiple times).  I know people can't/won't/refuse to believe/acknowlege it, but today you saw the effect. A 45-7 beatdown. Called clean, thats what this team will do to you.

     

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: Getting ahead of myself...

    In response to AFNAV130's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I would tend to agree with everything you said about playoff seeding.  The only caution I take is from todays game is can the Pats be as precise as they were today.  They looked good today, but I will say it was the best officiated game the Pats have had this year. Other than the standard non holding calls on Big Vince and Jones, the officials called the game evenly.  No bogus/phantom holding calls/PI helping the Rams.  There was only one non call that should have been called on the Pats and that was on Lloyd blocking a screen.  That was a penalty but wasn't called. However, the PIs that St Louis got were PIs, with the last one being the least legit, but still same DB, gonna get that called.

    Basically what I am saying is you saw what the Pats can do when they're recievers aren't being held (Gronk being one prime candidate) and the D not getting jacked with phony PI/holding calls. They are great offensively and if its called legit then not much can be done to stop them. They blitzed more today which was nice to see and needs to be done more.

    The only thing that bothers me right now is the tie breaker between the Pats and the Ravens.  The Ravens hold it, because it was a bag job by the officials right down to the last field goal.  Watch a replay of that game with the penalties called on the Pats and the announcers saying "ummm that wasn't a penalty" (multiple times) and todays with the PIs "Yep thats PI, can't do that" (multiple times).  I know people can't/won't/refuse to believe/acknowlege it, but today you saw the effect. A 45-7 beatdown. Called clean, thats what this team will do to you. 

    [/QUOTE]

    I know I am getting ahead of myself with this thread, but like I said. I with the bye week and a lot of teams being at their midway point I thought it would be a good time to see how the season is shaping up.

    I totally agree about how precise and together the offense was yesterday. I think that is the question for this team. They definitely have a tougher second half schedule than last year when the ran off 8 in a row to end the season. It's unrealistic to think they will run off 10 in a row this year to end the season and finish 13-3 again. 

    Last year having the number one seed meant getting a bad Denver team in here for the divisional round and hosting the Ravens.  This year missing the bye could mean hosting the Steelers or Ravens and then having to play at Denver and at Houston to make the Super Bowl. Not impossible, but a much tougher road.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from soups. Show soups's posts

    Re: Getting ahead of myself...

    I try not to judge the Pats at their best or their worst games, but it's hard to disagree when they did that yesterday.  Rams' D was brought down to earth.

    When they eschew the trick plays and spread out the offense, Brady is still the best in the game.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: Getting ahead of myself...

    Ok to look ahead but you might be overlooking a solid Miami team that crushed the jets in NJ...  Matt Moore is not a huge dropoff from tanehill who is good QB.

     

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