Going For It On 4th Downs...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from anonymis. Show anonymis's posts

    Going For It On 4th Downs...

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/62665328/

    Some stats on going for it on 4th down.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from 49Patriots. Show 49Patriots's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    With our defense, kick the punt and hope they make the critical stop. No point giving the D a short field to work with, they're reliable enough to make a stop.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    The analysis misses a major bias factor:

    The teams who tend to do it are probably also the teams who have higher success rates on third and short or second and short.

    Going for it on fourth down is not for everyone

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    of course BB wont say it, but this is a reflection on the PAts improved defense. this D has played well, and earned that trust. tough, tough match up this week...Brees is head and shoulders above anyone Pats have seen so far this year

    I haved to think we see Spikes sitting again, with Hightower jamming Graham, and bracketing Graham over the top and underneath with Hightower and Gregory. Talib on Colston. Sproles needs to be spied the entire game, does Collins get some snaps in this role?

     

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from bobomul. Show bobomul's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    In response to 49Patriots' comment:

    With our defense, kick the punt and hope they make the critical stop. No point giving the D a short field to work with, they're reliable enough to make a stop.



    The conclusion to the article make perfect sense: 

    "So when the guys at the water cooler are debating the latest 4th down gamble, bring this up: if a team goes for it on 4th-and-short three times in a game, they are statistically likely to gain two 1st downs and turn the ball over on downs once.

    If the team makes those three attempts at, say, the opponent's 40-yard line, that means they will get the ball in scoring position twice but give the opponent good field position once. Which would you rather have: the ball twice in scoring position (with an opponent around its own 40 once), or three punts? Unless you are talking about the 1999 Ravens, it's really not a choice at all."

    And no, 49 Pat, the New England defense is not the Ravens 1999 D and the NE offense is much better than the 99 Raven offense.  Go for it on 4th down once it gets near the 50.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from bobomul. Show bobomul's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    On BB's decision NOT to go for it on 4th down late vs Cinci:

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/77317/thank-you-for-not-coaching-week-5

    What he might not have known is that the skies were about to open up. New England kicked the field goal and eventually got the ball back on Cincinnati's 44-yard line after a fumble with 3:26 left, but by then, monsoon-like conditions had taken over in Cincinnati. The weather was so bad that Tom Brady completed only one of his nine subsequent passes the rest of the way, and the Patriots never seriously threatened to tie. I can't fault Belichick for failing to prepare for the incoming storm, but his conservative call to kick from the 1-yard line really hurt his team's chances of winning the game in any weather.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from anonymis. Show anonymis's posts

    Re: Going For It On 4th Downs...

    In response to bobomul's comment:

    On BB's decision NOT to go for it on 4th down late vs Cinci:

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/77317/thank-you-for-not-coaching-week-5

    What he might not have known is that the skies were about to open up. New England kicked the field goal and eventually got the ball back on Cincinnati's 44-yard line after a fumble with 3:26 left, but by then, monsoon-like conditions had taken over in Cincinnati. The weather was so bad that Tom Brady completed only one of his nine subsequent passes the rest of the way, and the Patriots never seriously threatened to tie. I can't fault Belichick for failing to prepare for the incoming storm, but his conservative call to kick from the 1-yard line really hurt his team's chances of winning the game in any weather.



    Everything is speculation at this point as none of us know what the outcome would have been had the Patriots scored a TD vs. a FG.  If they had scored the TD, tho, the Patriots might have been in an "easier" position to kick a FG to tie the game instead of a TD.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share