Gruden's defense analysis

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Gruden's defense analysis

    He said it best that yards per game is useless, and that points given up is the true measure of a defense.

    Right now Patriots are tenth in points allowed.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]He said it best that yards per game is useless, and that points given up is the true measure of a defense. Right now Patriots are tenth in points allowed.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    ppg is the #1 stat for me on D followed by turn over % per play. But, yards per game isn't useless imo. Not because of the yards but because of ToP. If most of those yards come in garbage time then it's completely useless but if it's average throughout the game then giving up a lot of yards typically means you are giving up long drives which takes up a lot of time. There is a direct corelation between ToP and odds of winning. Of course the higher ToP you have the better chance you have to win so giving up a lot of yards early takes the ball out of Brady's hand and lowers the chance to win (ie see Steelers game)
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Only one stat that matters.  WINS!  How many people can recite the stats of the last three super bowl winners?  Most football people can tell you who played and who won though.
     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Gruden's defense analysis : ppg is the #1 stat for me on D followed by turn over % per play. But, yards per game isn't useless imo. Not because of the yards but because of ToP. If most of those yards come in garbage time then it's completely useless but if it's average throughout the game then giving up a lot of yards typically means you are giving up long drives which takes up a lot of time. There is a direct corelation between ToP and odds of winning. Of course the higher ToP you have the better chance you have to win so giving up a lot of yards early takes the ball out of Brady's hand and lowers the chance to win (ie see Steelers game)
    Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]

    I'm inclined to agree.  Points surrendered is indeed more important than yards surrendered.  That said, the time of possession issue can't be ignored.  In addition to the scoring opportunities issue the longer a defense is on the field the more worn down they become.  I give you the Giants game.  I'm convinced that the D didn't break down in that game so much as it wore down.

    My 2 cents.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Gruden's defense analysis :   But, yards per game isn't useless imo. Not because of the yards but because of ToP. Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]

    ToP is another good indicator:

    KC had 334 total yards with 31.5 minutes of ToP, scored 3 points.

    NE had 380 total yards, 28.5 ToP, scored 34 points.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : ToP is another good indicator: KC had 334 total yards with 31.5 minutes of ToP, scored 3 points. NE had 380 total yards, 28.5 ToP, scored 34 points.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    ToP to me is a 3rd factor and one you really have to look beyond the numbers and actually watch the games to understand better. It also helps to combine it with my second factor of turn over (+/-)

    When you have equal teams (in other words 2 playoffs teams vs say teams that self destruct, KC's and SD's) ToP is a great indicator. When you look at teams that just plain self destruct ToP almost becomes useless too. For instance ToP is a good indication against teams like Pitt, NYG, Bal, GB, SF. Any time you have the ball more often then your opponent it's always a good thing. But, against teams that self destruct like KC, Jets, Cowboys then they can dominant ToP but still turn the ball over in critical situations.

    So I guess if you look at straight ToP the numbers can be misleading but if you account for the opponent and turn overs then ToP is a great indicator
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    points per drive or points per possession is much better than top. top is really more appropriate in basketball. given you only have 24 secs (30 in amateur) to shoot the ball, really, the way you get more chances to score is by getting more rebounds. you can accumulate possessions by rebounding the ball, thereby extending your top.

    football, obviously, does not work that way. the two teams alternate possessions and what matters is that at the end of 60 minutes you accumulate more points in total than the other team, on practically equal number of possessions (more typical is that one team has one more possession than the other). you do that by earning more points per possession than the other team.

    typically one team has one more posession than the other. on very rare occasion, one team can have two more possessions than the other. bb chooses to take first possession in the second half to try to ensure they have more possessions than the other team.

    top is really useless, ppd is more important.

    as for yards per game. what that stat does not really capture are
    1) red zone eficiency (for d, it's their ability to prevent red zone production)
    2) % of time you are able to get into the red zone
    two stats that represent how good the o is at overcoming the fact that it gets harder to move the ball as you get closer to the goal line (field gets smaller -- /> advantage d). the application of these on d is how well the d prevents the o from being efficient near the goal line.

    note, that when you look at the stats this way, it's easy to understand why bb is such a bend but not break type of person.

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]points per drive or points per possession is much better than top. top is really more appropriate in basketball. given you only have 24 secs (30 in amateur) to shoot the ball, really, the way you get more chances to score is by getting more rebounds. you can accumulate possessions by rebounding the ball, thereby extending your top. football, obviously, does not work that way. the two teams alternate possessions and what matters is that at the end of 60 minutes you accumulate more points in total than the other team, on practically equal number of possessions (more typical is that one team has one more possession than the other). you do that by earning more points per possession than the other team. typically one team has one more posession than the other. on very rare occasion, one team can have two more possessions than the other. bb chooses to take first possession in the second half to try to ensure they have more possessions than the other team. top is really useless, ppd is more important. as for yards per game. what that stat does not really capture are 1) red zone eficiency (for d, it's their ability to prevent red zone production) 2) % of time you are able to get into the red zone two stats that represent how good the o is at overcoming the fact that it gets harder to move the ball as you get closer to the goal line (field gets smaller -- /> advantage d). the application of these on d is how well the d prevents the o from being efficient near the goal line. note, that when you look at the stats this way, it's easy to understand why bb is such a bend but not break type of person.
    Posted by seattlepat70[/QUOTE]

    Interesting analysis and I agree for the most part.  I would however assert that TOP isn't totally useless since it correlates directly with the opponent's D time on the field.  How a D holds up late in the 4th qtr can often determine the outcome, particularly when we're talking about two playoff caliber teams.
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    i will give you that atj. you raise a good point. there have been games where you the DL got good pressure early and then you see vw gasping for air towards the end.

    however, when you frame the game in terms of alternating possessios, top should be viewed as shared responsbility by bothe d and o. you obviously understand how d impacts top. the other side of that is that the o needs to sustain drives so they earn their own top. you cannot put the blame solely on the d for losing a top battle when your o can't get a 1st down.

    to really illustrate how all these work, we can reduce the game to giving each team - a la college football ot. what matters most is that you score more on your possession than your opponent does on theirs. it does not matter how much time you take to score.

    the entire game, is simply college ot played 8-12 times in a span of 60 mins.

    btw: i did not explain everything yet.
    the equivalent of rebounds is first downs earned.
    ypg is an indicator of how effective a team is at creating opporunities to score.
    red zone efficiency is an indicator of how effective the team is at scoring when given the opportunity
    top is more an indicator of how you choose to create your opportunities to score
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from kjfiton. Show kjfiton's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    yeah , he also said something like yards allowed isn't on any nfl scoreboard that he's seen.

    its the way the patriots play defense, they give up the yards but are very tough in the red zone.. they don't give up, or at least have not been giving up very many points for several weeks and are improving.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from AZPAT. Show AZPAT's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : ToP is another good indicator: KC had 334 total yards with 31.5 minutes of ToP, scored 3 points. NE had 380 total yards, 28.5 ToP, scored 34 points.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    ToP means nothing to me, especially when the opponent goes 70+ yards in less than 2 minutes (see: Giants loss). ToP means absolutely nothing when you can rip off big plays via the air seemingly at will against this Patriot defense. We've seen it in every game this season. Just Monday, the Chiefs controlled the ball longer and moved the ball. They just couldn't punch it in. Does ANYONE believe this would have happened if Cassell was playing? Put aside teh Patriot Chest Thumping, and just be honest.

    This defense scares me in a not so good way. Continually giving up big yards via the air is NOT the way to ultimate championship aspirations. If it works out to be yet another disappoing post season,andn I see nothing that says it won't be, how much longer are we going to hear about that "young and learining and getting better" defense? We had options to resolve a lot of this in prior drafts and badly blew it. This defense is what BB wants, and he's stuck with it. Like the Haynesworth fiasco and the Ochostinko waste of money experiment, this defense hasn't worked out to reasonable expectations, given BB's reputation of a defensive genius. This is not a "Go ahead and TRY to score on us!" defense. They have proven that they can be beat. Let's all agree that the better teams make the playoffs and see this HUGE chink in the Pats armor, and exploit it. I don't see anything on this roster that will and can stop that. 

    We rag on Sanchize and Flacko, but look what they've been able to do in the last 3 Patriot playoff games; even with a 1st round "bye". Regular season wins for a good post season playoff seed means nothing when the ultimate result is another one and done. Especially when you're getting gouged via the air.
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : ToP is another good indicator: KC had 334 total yards with 31.5 minutes of ToP, scored 3 points. NE had 380 total yards, 28.5 ToP, scored 34 points.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    There are people who believe statistics indicate things, and there are others who don't. For every game that shows you how important your particular favorite statistic is, there is another game -- as KP points out here -- that shows it's not.

    Collect them, study them, ponder them . . .   have them for breakfast if you like . . .  but last week's numbers will never tell you anything irrefutable about next week's game.



     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Well, if the defense doesn't let the other team score any points, it at least did it's job at the basic level.  Yards without points are just about useless.  Turnovers, points off turnovers, and helping the offense with field position matter, but if I only had ONE stat to judge a defense by, it would be Points Allowed.  Period.  
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]Well, if the defense doesn't let the other team score any points, it at least did it's job at the basic level.  Yards without points are just about useless.  Turnovers, points off turnovers, and helping the offense with field position matter, but if I only had ONE stat to judge a defense by, it would be Points Allowed.  Period.  
    Posted by Davedsone[/QUOTE]

    Consider this:

    Brady throws for 325 yds (say 23 of 30), 1 TD and 1 INT. The Pats gain over 500 yds and lose by 4 points, 24-20.

    Who gets YOUR blame?

    Or, thius that just happened this past weekend:

    Texas gains over 600 yards offensively, gives up less than 130, and LOSES to Kansas State. Blame goes to....???????? 
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from raptor64d. Show raptor64d's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Defense mission statement- Don't let other team score.

    Offense mission statement- Score as many points as possible.

    Team mission statement- Win the game.

    I never seen one that put high marks on pretty stats, but I do agree some stats are indicators. I still have wins and losses as my most important,
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from sfpat. Show sfpat's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : ToP is another good indicator:
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    I remember an Arkansas/USC game from a few years ago.  Arkansas has the ball in the first quarter for 12:30 to 2:30 for USC.  USC lead 28-0 after the quarter.

    TOP means nothing
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]Defense mission statement- Don't let other team score.

    Offense mission statement- Score as many points as possible.

    Team mission statement- Win the game. [/QUOTE]


    Three shots, three kills.
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis :  . .  but last week's numbers will never tell you anything irrefutable about next week's game.
    Posted by p-mike[/QUOTE]

    at least against the las vegas point spread they won't.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : ToP is another good indicator: KC had 334 total yards with 31.5 minutes of ToP, scored 3 points. NE had 380 total yards, 28.5 ToP, scored 34 points.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    YArds are related to TOP and DSR. 

    If you are giving up 400+ per game, you aren't giving your offense enough chances.

    While points are ultimately MORE important, yardage is NOT irrelevant.




     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from andrewmcintosh. Show andrewmcintosh's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : YArds are related to TOP and DSR.  If you are giving up 400+ per game, you aren't giving your offense enough chances. While points are ultimately MORE important, yardage is NOT irrelevant.
    Posted by zbellino[/QUOTE]
    This seems like the most accurate post to me, while points are the most important stat, it's unwise to totally discount yardage, top, etc. But there's no way this is a top 10 D in football, just no way.  At least not right now it isn't.
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    they seem to be getting better, id say as far as bend but dont break and redzone D, they are a top ten D, but overall i think they are in the middle of the pack overall
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from dogbones. Show dogbones's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Could someone plese help me get my head around this subject?  The Patriots have given up (appx) 300 t0 400 yards per game in the last 10 games and have lost their 3 games by a total of 15 points. Does this mean that the defense is terrible for giving up those 15 points or is fhe offense terrible for not making 1 more touch down when needed.

    How can a no name team be so bad, yet be so close to a perfect season.
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]Could someone plese help me get my head around this subject?  The Patriots have given up (appx) 300 t0 400 yards per game in the last 10 games and have lost their 3 games by a total of 15 points. Does this mean that the defense is terrible for giving up those 15 points or is fhe offense terrible for not making 1 more touch down when needed. How can a no name team be so bad, yet be so close to a perfect season.
    Posted by dogbones[/QUOTE]
    as with most things in the NFL, it's likely a combination of all the factors you've named.  The losses the Pats have had this year have been true team efforts, with pretty poor play by all 3 units.  I just hope the D is good enough come january, I have my doubts...
     
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    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    BB also says third down efficiency is an important stat, since it translates to keeping drives alive (which also translates into giving up more yards).  I haven't looked at the stats, but the Pats seem to be very poor on third down.  Maybe they've been getting better recently, but certainly at the beginning of the season they were allowing a lot of completions (and long gains) for first downs from third down. 

    Objectively, you have to admit that this defense has some serious weaknesses. The good thing is that they somewhat compensate for those weaknesses with the ability to create turnovers and better defense in a short field. This isn't a great defense by any means, but with BB's coaching you can't count it out.  

    ______


    By the way, some people talk as if BB designed the defense to give up a lot of yards between the 20s and then get stout in the red zone. While it may be true that BB's defensive style puts more emphasis on preventing long plays and therefore may allow some more short gains, there's no way BB wants his defense to be giving up huge yards.  He's expecting the defense to make the stops on third down with enough consistency to kill drives and limit yardage gains.  He really doesn't want his opponents to get to the red zone.  And I'm sure he's not happy when the defense that gives up 350 or 400 passing yards.
     

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