In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:

I'd love to do an analysis of TOP, yards allowed, turnovers,... and determine the correlation with win percentage across the league for the last few years.  Anyone know of a publicly available database that has this info?

Couldn't find an all in one link but here's a couple that may provide some light:

Turnovers:  http://twominutewarning.com/g13.htm

Time of Possession:  http://www.stampedeblue.com/2009/4/14/834798/finding-the-winning-factors-time

Couldn't really find anything on yards allowed. 

Getting ready to head out to a family gathering otherwise I'd try to make some sense of those links.

Adding to the ToP discussion here...  would anyone know how the Pats rank as to their average ToP per scoring drive?  It wouldn't surprise me, given how often the Pats go into a no huddle offense scheme throughout the game, the Pats take the shortest amount of time per scoring drive.  As a result, one would expect the Pats to lose most ToP statistics in their games.  Of course, the negative effect is their defense is on the field longer for offenses who do not take so little time to score. 

Bb was quoited as saying that he knew his defense was young
andlong pass plays and thus get demoralized

He brings these guys along slowly
No team at the beginning of the season is as
good as most teams at the end of the season

pts allowed per game go down in the second half of the season
under BB

The talking heads will get lost on that fact and our defense
will always be maligned even at the end of the year. Tell me
our rank over the last 5 games

Jaws gets it right saying that
BB always knows what his team will look like at the end of the season

we have also had alot of injuries and we will be getting them back

On offense - i think BB is trying to design the offensive attack around his
best players - who happen to be TE"S - Add that our #1 Oline pick
is on the field as a TE, Gronk is set all ovet he field (FB even)
hernadez is a WR etc - and the stats our WR pick up is not
really as important as on other teasms. plus these big boys will
help the run. - And we must run some.

i think they also are learning when to use the spread and or no huddle.
We have an umbelievalbe mix of offensive sets.

Our problem as fans is that the schedule is so weak and that we have lost
the last Playoff games , we will all be uneasy until we win in January/February
But it seems our number one indicator is Our Turnovers in any of our losses

btw I think GB a bit overrated - they have given up lots of points
are bad against the run and cannot run the ball well - at least til now
We found even with TB - eventually the odds and the luck go
against you - and you lose-

there maybe a front runner - but there really shouldn't be a favorite yet
- all the top 10 teams are still in the hunt.

happy turkey day

I think I saw something that said the Pats were near the leaders in not giving up plays over 40 yards.  Someone made the point that this D is schemed to not give up the big play

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:

< www.profootballreference.com usually has every stat cut up in every way you could ever want. By team, by year, by whatever.

I believe in two stat's,  Points scored and Points allowed.  As so eloquently stated in a Metallica song.....Nothing else matters.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:


Great point. Although the total yardage by itself may not mean a lot it does translate into one important aspect, a defense that is spending too much time on the field which means in the fourth quarter of a close game they might be all too winded to keep the opposition from scoring.
 
Hetchinspete 

I think yards allowed dosen't always correlate into TOP.

Sometimes alot of yards are given up in a short amount of time especially if they are through the air.  

I think red zone defense is the most important.  You can give up alot of yards but don't let the opposing team in the endzone then all those yards a pointless.  No pun intended.

If you are giving up yards and time then you are more than likely in trouble.  Usually this is accomplished by running the ball alot and making alot of first downs. 

That being said I think the Pats defense has been pretty decent getting off the field on third downs the last couple of games. 

Obviously stats have their place but they are not a tell all.

Pats defensive third down efficiency in 2011,
mia  2-14 win 38-24
sdc 10-12 win 35-21
buf  4-11 loss 34-31
oak  8-13 win 31-19
nyj  3-11 win 30-21
dal  4-12 win 20-16
pit 10-16 loss 25-17
nyg  4-14 loss 24-20
nyj  5-13 win 37-16
kcc  6-14 win 34-3
total 36-130 27.7%

The Pats allowed the Chargers to convert 10-12 third downs and still won the game, yet they held the Bills and Giants to 4-11 and 4-14 and lost. The difference was turnovers. San Diego turned the ball over 4 times against us while the Patriots turned the ball over 4 times against the Bills and Giants.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:


Top Pats are usually on the losing end every game.
Last game they were 4 min less in ToP
Jets game 6 sec difference.
Pats however have both more yds running and passing than their opponents.

Pats many times score on 6 to 9 play drives that last 3/4 minutes.
Pats opponenets will go one 10 play drives taking 7 minutes and come away with a FG or less.
Off Pats are 28 th in ToP and 4th in points
Def the Pats 10th highest in ToP and 23rd in least points allowed.
 
ToP may seem like it means something but when you do not give up points it means little or nothing.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:



agree with eng adn atj,
    have stipulated these things to those who state yards yielded doesnt matter since ive been on here.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:


just gives up the whole game (time) and then wehn they score anyway that really hurts

after seeing gbp play today, i am thinking gbp vs. nwe, if they meet anytime soon, would be a very high scoring game.

right now i have a hard time seeing nwe stop gbp, given how quick rodgers gets rid of the ball even on 10-15 yard passes.

that said, i don't see gbp stoping ww and the two TEs.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:


i think their dbs are better than ours. and if they only havce to watch the middle of the field 20 yeards in that willhelp them a lot.

as a fan, if i could, id vote for either a championship or missing the playoffs so we can get higher draft picks next year.

give us a few more titles with bb and tb

ps the gb db'' shut down calvin johnson. we cannot.
again hey are beter in the secondary than we are.

This post has been removed.

In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:


he's one threat. big drop off on other offensive weapons. det does not have the dual threat of ww and gronk. i believe hern is superior to their third option. tb is better than stafford, who was also nursing a broken finger. i also believe that by playoff time pats run game will be much better (i am counting on cannon to be fully integrated in three weeks). their pass rush does not scare me. i think tb will have time to throw.

when i look at the match up between their OL and pats DL, i think pats have the advantage. nwe is just figuring out who their front four is so it's pretty underrated. however, i believe anderson, love (or warren), vw, carter is a better front 4 than detroit's and is a better matchup versus gbp's OL.