Re: Gruden's defense analysis
posted at 11/24/2011 12:23 PM EST
In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis
[QUOTE]Adding to the ToP discussion here... would anyone know how the Pats rank as to their average ToP per scoring drive? It wouldn't surprise me, given how often the Pats go into a no huddle offense scheme throughout the game, the Pats take the shortest amount of time per scoring drive. As a result, one would expect the Pats to lose most ToP statistics in their games. Of course, the negative effect is their defense is on the field longer for offenses who do not take so little time to score.
Posted by agcsbill[/QUOTE]
There is not a correlation between running the football and longer TOP.
OF the top ten TOP teams, five of them are in the top-ten pass-ratio, that is above 60% passes per game.
Of the ten teams that run the most, only three are in the top ten in TOP.
The remaining two teams in the top ten TOP are just outside the top ten in passing percent at 59% passing.
TOP is more strongly correlated with effective defense that prevents first downs and effective offense that gets a lot of first downs.
The strongest TOP correalation is with offenses with most yards per drive, period, combined. And with net yardage stats, least allowed most gained.
NE's offense is consistent with GB, New Orleans, and San Diego, all teams that have great TOPs.
That said, the margin between a bad TOP team and a good TOP team is about 2 to 3 minutes per game .... hardly a stat that would 'gas' a defense.
If the defense wants a breather, it should tighten up on first and thrid down.
Running as a clock killing strategy has its place, but not in the first quarter. You are far better off trying to score more and get a lead if you suspect your defense is leaky. Any defense would take a 14 point lead over 2 minutes extra rest.