Gruden's defense analysis

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : This seems like the most accurate post to me, while points are the most important stat, it's unwise to totally discount yardage, top, etc. But there's no way this is a top 10 D in football, just no way.  At least not right now it isn't.
    Posted by andrewmcintosh[/QUOTE]

    They've had flashes ... I think what you see by week 12 is it. I started a thread about the total overhaul. 

    NE didn't need to have a defense that is out of this world. They merely needed one that could stand up to bad/mediocre offenses like Baltimore and New Jersey.

    Jettisoning the junk like TBC and Cunningham went a long way toward that. 

    However, just like late last season ... take dominating Tyler Palko with a grain of salt ... he won't be in the playoffs.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]BB also says third down efficiency is an important stat, since it translates to keeping drives alive (which also translates into giving up more yards).  I haven't looked at the stats, but the Pats seem to be very poor on third down.  Maybe they've been getting better recently, but certainly at the beginning of the season they were allowing a lot of completions (and long gains) for first downs from third down.  Objectively, you have to admit that this defense has some serious weaknesses. The good thing is that they somewhat compensate for those weaknesses with the ability to create turnovers and better defense in a short field. This isn't a great defense by any means, but with BB's coaching you can't count it out.   ______ By the way, some people talk as if BB designed the defense to give up a lot of yards between the 20s and then get stout in the red zone. While it may be true that BB's defensive style puts more emphasis on preventing long plays and therefore may allow some more short gains, there's no way BB wants his defense to be giving up huge yards.  He's expecting the defense to make the stops on third down with enough consistency to kill drives and limit yardage gains.  He really doesn't want his opponents to get to the red zone.  And I'm sure he's not happy when the defense that gives up 350 or 400 passing yards.
    Posted by prolate0spheroid[/QUOTE]

    Redzone is important. I don't think BB cares much about the yardage as an abstract figure, but when it translates into 30 minutes TOP in three quarters for the opponent he probably is not happy.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from batou. Show batou's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    I'd love to do an analysis of TOP, yards allowed, turnovers,... and determine the correlation with win percentage across the league for the last few years.  Anyone know of a publicly available database that has this info?
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Couldn't find an all in one link but here's a couple that may provide some light:

    Turnovers:  http://twominutewarning.com/g13.htm

    Time of Possession:  http://www.stampedeblue.com/2009/4/14/834798/finding-the-winning-factors-time

    Couldn't really find anything on yards allowed. 

    Getting ready to head out to a family gathering otherwise I'd try to make some sense of those links.
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Adding to the ToP discussion here...  would anyone know how the Pats rank as to their average ToP per scoring drive?  It wouldn't surprise me, given how often the Pats go into a no huddle offense scheme throughout the game, the Pats take the shortest amount of time per scoring drive.  As a result, one would expect the Pats to lose most ToP statistics in their games.  Of course, the negative effect is their defense is on the field longer for offenses who do not take so little time to score. 
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis



    Bb was quoited as saying that he knew his defense was young
    andlong pass plays and thus get demoralized

    He brings these guys along slowly
    No team at the beginning of the season is as
    good as most teams at the end of the season

    pts allowed per game go down in the second half of the season
    under BB

    The talking heads will get lost on that fact and our defense
    will always be maligned even at the end of the year. Tell me
    our rank over the last 5 games

    Jaws gets it right saying that
    BB always knows what his team will look like at the end of the season

    we have also had alot of injuries and we will be getting them back

    On offense - i think BB is trying to design the offensive attack around his
    best players - who happen to be TE"S - Add that our #1 Oline pick
    is on the field as a TE, Gronk is set all ovet he field (FB even)
    hernadez is a WR etc - and the stats our WR pick up is not
    really as important as on other teasms. plus these big boys will
    help the run. - And we must run some.

    i think they also are learning when to use the spread and or no huddle.
    We have an umbelievalbe mix of offensive sets.

    Our problem as fans is that the schedule is so weak and that we have lost
    the last Playoff games , we will all be uneasy until we win in January/February
    But it seems our number one indicator is Our Turnovers in any of our losses

    btw I think GB a bit overrated - they have given up lots of points
    are bad against the run and cannot run the ball well - at least til now
    We found even with TB - eventually the odds and the luck go
    against you - and you lose-

    there maybe a front runner - but there really shouldn't be a favorite yet
    - all the top 10 teams are still in the hunt.

    happy turkey day


     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from provpats. Show provpats's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    I think I saw something that said the Pats were near the leaders in not giving up plays over 40 yards.  Someone made the point that this D is schemed to not give up the big play
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]I'd love to do an analysis of TOP, yards allowed, turnovers,... and determine the correlation with win percentage across the league for the last few years.  Anyone know of a publicly available database that has this info?
    Posted by batou[/QUOTE]
    < www.profootballreference.com usually has every stat cut up in every way you could ever want. By team, by year, by whatever.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from tcal2-. Show tcal2-'s posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    I believe in two stat's,  Points scored and Points allowed.  As so eloquently stated in a Metallica song.....Nothing else matters.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]Adding to the ToP discussion here...  would anyone know how the Pats rank as to their average ToP per scoring drive?  It wouldn't surprise me, given how often the Pats go into a no huddle offense scheme throughout the game, the Pats take the shortest amount of time per scoring drive.  As a result, one would expect the Pats to lose most ToP statistics in their games.  Of course, the negative effect is their defense is on the field longer for offenses who do not take so little time to score. 
    Posted by agcsbill[/QUOTE]

    There is not a correlation between running the football and longer TOP. 

    OF the top ten TOP teams, five of them are in the top-ten pass-ratio, that is above 60% passes per game. 

    Of the ten teams that run the most, only three are in the top ten in TOP.

    The remaining two teams in the top ten TOP are just outside the top ten in passing percent at 59% passing. 

    TOP is more strongly correlated with effective defense that prevents first downs and effective offense that gets a lot of first downs. 

    The strongest TOP correalation is with offenses with most yards per drive, period, combined. And with net yardage stats, least allowed most gained. 

    NE's offense is consistent with GB, New Orleans, and San Diego, all teams that have great TOPs. 

    That said, the margin between a bad TOP team and a good TOP team is about 2 to 3 minutes per game .... hardly a stat that would 'gas' a defense.

    If the defense wants a breather, it should tighten up on first and thrid down.

    Running as a clock killing strategy has its place, but not in the first quarter. You are far better off trying to score more and get a lead if you suspect your defense is leaky. Any defense would take a 14 point lead over 2 minutes extra rest.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Hetchinspete. Show Hetchinspete's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : Redzone is important. I don't think BB cares much about the yardage as an abstract figure, but when it translates into 30 minutes TOP in three quarters for the opponent he probably is not happy.
    Posted by zbellino[/QUOTE]

    Great point. Although the total yardage by itself may not mean a lot it does translate into one important aspect, a defense that is spending too much time on the field which means in the fourth quarter of a close game they might be all too winded to keep the opposition from scoring.
     
    Hetchinspete 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from Salcon. Show Salcon's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    I think yards allowed dosen't always correlate into TOP.

    Sometimes alot of yards are given up in a short amount of time especially if they are through the air.  

    I think red zone defense is the most important.  You can give up alot of yards but don't let the opposing team in the endzone then all those yards a pointless.  No pun intended.

    If you are giving up yards and time then you are more than likely in trouble.  Usually this is accomplished by running the ball alot and making alot of first downs. 

    That being said I think the Pats defense has been pretty decent getting off the field on third downs the last couple of games. 
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    Obviously stats have their place but they are not a tell all.

    Pats defensive third down efficiency in 2011,
    mia  2-14 win 38-24
    sdc 10-12 win 35-21
    buf  4-11 loss 34-31
    oak  8-13 win 31-19
    nyj  3-11 win 30-21
    dal  4-12 win 20-16
    pit 10-16 loss 25-17
    nyg  4-14 loss 24-20
    nyj  5-13 win 37-16
    kcc  6-14 win 34-3
    total 36-130 27.7%

    The Pats allowed the Chargers to convert 10-12 third downs and still won the game, yet they held the Bills and Giants to 4-11 and 4-14 and lost. The difference was turnovers. San Diego turned the ball over 4 times against us while the Patriots turned the ball over 4 times against the Bills and Giants.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from JimfromFlorida. Show JimfromFlorida's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Gruden's defense analysis : ppg is the #1 stat for me on D followed by turn over % per play. But, yards per game isn't useless imo. Not because of the yards but because of ToP. If most of those yards come in garbage time then it's completely useless but if it's average throughout the game then giving up a lot of yards typically means you are giving up long drives which takes up a lot of time. There is a direct corelation between ToP and odds of winning. Of course the higher ToP you have the better chance you have to win so giving up a lot of yards early takes the ball out of Brady's hand and lowers the chance to win (ie see Steelers game)
    Posted by PatsEng[/QUOTE]

    Top Pats are usually on the losing end every game.
    Last game they were 4 min less in ToP
    Jets game 6 sec difference.
    Pats however have both more yds running and passing than their opponents.

    Pats many times score on 6 to 9 play drives that last 3/4 minutes.
    Pats opponenets will go one 10 play drives taking 7 minutes and come away with a FG or less.
    Off Pats are 28 th in ToP and 4th in points
    Def the Pats 10th highest in ToP and 23rd in least points allowed.
     
    ToP may seem like it means something but when you do not give up points it means little or nothing.





     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis : I'm inclined to agree.  Points surrendered is indeed more important than yards surrendered.  That said, the time of possession issue can't be ignored.  In addition to the scoring opportunities issue the longer a defense is on the field the more worn down they become.  I give you the Giants game.  I'm convinced that the D didn't break down in that game so much as it wore down. My 2 cents.
    Posted by ATJ[/QUOTE]


    agree with eng adn atj,
        have stipulated these things to those who state yards yielded doesnt matter since ive been on here.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]I think I saw something that said the Pats were near the leaders in not giving up plays over 40 yards.  Someone made the point that this D is schemed to not give up the big play
    Posted by provpats[/QUOTE]

    just gives up the whole game (time) and then wehn they score anyway that really hurts
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    after seeing gbp play today, i am thinking gbp vs. nwe, if they meet anytime soon, would be a very high scoring game.

    right now i have a hard time seeing nwe stop gbp, given how quick rodgers gets rid of the ball even on 10-15 yard passes.

    that said, i don't see gbp stoping ww and the two TEs.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]after seeing gbp play today, i am thinking gbp vs. nwe, if they meet anytime soon, would be a very high scoring game. right now i have a hard time seeing nwe stop gbp, given how quick rodgers gets rid of the ball even on 10-15 yard passes. that said, i don't see gbp stoping ww and the two TEs.
    Posted by seattlepat70[/QUOTE]

    i think their dbs are better than ours. and if they only havce to watch the middle of the field 20 yeards in that willhelp them a lot.

    as a fan, if i could, id vote for either a championship or missing the playoffs so we can get higher draft picks next year.

    give us a few more titles with bb and tb
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    ps the gb db'' shut down calvin johnson. we cannot.
    again hey are beter in the secondary than we are.
     
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  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Gruden's defense analysis

    In Response to Re: Gruden's defense analysis:
    [QUOTE]ps the gb db'' shut down calvin johnson. we cannot. again hey are beter in the secondary than we are.
    Posted by brdbreu[/QUOTE]

    he's one threat. big drop off on other offensive weapons. det does not have the dual threat of ww and gronk. i believe hern is superior to their third option. tb is better than stafford, who was also nursing a broken finger. i also believe that by playoff time pats run game will be much better (i am counting on cannon to be fully integrated in three weeks). their pass rush does not scare me. i think tb will have time to throw.

    when i look at the match up between their OL and pats DL, i think pats have the advantage. nwe is just figuring out who their front four is so it's pretty underrated. however, i believe anderson, love (or warren), vw, carter is a better front 4 than detroit's and is a better matchup versus gbp's OL.
     
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