How Does BB Define Value?

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There will always be hits and misses in the draft, both by BB and any other GM.   No matter what metrics are applied in the final analysis it will come down to what the decision maker thinks.  This is true in the NFL and it is true in virtually every other business decision and that's exactly what a draft selection is - a business decision.  Every executive relies to one degree or another on a variety of sources in making important decisions.  I know of no executive in any field anywhere who hits on every decision that he or she makes.  Does that mean it wasn't the correct decision at the time the decision was made?  That is not always as easy an assessment to make as it appears.  What does matter is whether or not the executive is effective at what he does to the extent that his or her organization is successful.  That's the way I look at the draft.

    We will always be able to identify and isolate a specific decision (i.e. draft pick) that did not work out.  However measuring that in isolation is, in my opinion, not a valid measure of the decision maker's effectiveness.  In the specific case of BB and his draft choices, I would assert that labeling him as a 'poor drafter' because he hits on (define 'hits' and pick a percentage) 40% of his picks without an objective benchmark is akin to labeling Ted Williams a poor hitter because in 1941 he only got a base hit in 40% of his at bats.  Absent context such an evaluation is devoid of any meaning.  In short, cherry picking draft selections is no valid measure, IMO.

    My 2 cents.



    A reasonable analogy/perspective. Here is another way to look at it.

    Basically the picks are currency to acquire potential assets -- i.e, the talent. BB and his team decide how much of the currency is each talent worth. Other teams do the same. The thing is, every year it seems that a lot of teams' valuation of the talent converges -- establishing a "market" value. In the first round, that market valuation is historically very good. BB seems to refuse to recognize that. Because of it, I believe he had overpaid for some of the talent acquired, and missed on some.

    [/QUOTE]

    Or is it because the difference in draft position of 25-31 and mid 2nd round is not as great? Meaning, he feels like the talent level between those 2 areas is not as great as the money committed and the amount of extra picks he can acquire by trading down.

    If we drafted in the top 15 every year, I don't think we would trade down nearly as much. The talent or interpretation of talent is a broad spectrum after the 1st 15-20 picks in most years imo.

    Anyway, i don't think he refuses to recognize there is talent in the 1st round, I just think that as we go 12-4 or 13-3 on average it is prudent to trade down and acquire picks(from that draft postion) to draft guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman etc...If BB made all his picks the last 6 years we would be missing some pretty important players, and perhaps not made any of our last 3 afc championships in a row.

    Then fans would actually have something to complain about.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There will always be hits and misses in the draft, both by BB and any other GM.   No matter what metrics are applied in the final analysis it will come down to what the decision maker thinks.  This is true in the NFL and it is true in virtually every other business decision and that's exactly what a draft selection is - a business decision.  Every executive relies to one degree or another on a variety of sources in making important decisions.  I know of no executive in any field anywhere who hits on every decision that he or she makes.  Does that mean it wasn't the correct decision at the time the decision was made?  That is not always as easy an assessment to make as it appears.  What does matter is whether or not the executive is effective at what he does to the extent that his or her organization is successful.  That's the way I look at the draft.

    We will always be able to identify and isolate a specific decision (i.e. draft pick) that did not work out.  However measuring that in isolation is, in my opinion, not a valid measure of the decision maker's effectiveness.  In the specific case of BB and his draft choices, I would assert that labeling him as a 'poor drafter' because he hits on (define 'hits' and pick a percentage) 40% of his picks without an objective benchmark is akin to labeling Ted Williams a poor hitter because in 1941 he only got a base hit in 40% of his at bats.  Absent context such an evaluation is devoid of any meaning.  In short, cherry picking draft selections is no valid measure, IMO.

    My 2 cents.

     



    A reasonable analogy/perspective. Here is another way to look at it.

     

    Basically the picks are currency to acquire potential assets -- i.e, the talent. BB and his team decide how much of the currency is each talent worth. Other teams do the same. The thing is, every year it seems that a lot of teams' valuation of the talent converges -- establishing a "market" value. In the first round, that market valuation is historically very good. BB seems to refuse to recognize that. Because of it, I believe he had overpaid for some of the talent acquired, and missed on some.

    [/QUOTE]

    Or is it because the difference in draft position of 25-31 and mid 2nd round is not as great? Meaning, he feels like the talent level between those 2 areas is not as great as the money committed and the amount of extra picks he can acquire by trading down.

    If we drafted in the top 15 every year, I don't think we would trade down nearly as much. The talent or interpretation of talent is a broad spectrum after the 1st 15-20 picks in most years imo.

    Anyway, i don't think he refuses to recognize there is talent in the 1st round, I just think that as we go 12-4 or 13-3 on average it is prudent to trade down and acquire picks(from that draft postion) to draft guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman etc...If BB made all his picks the last 6 years we would be missing some pretty important players, and perhaps not made any of our last 3 afc championships in a row.

    Then fans would actually have something to complain about.

    [/QUOTE]

    I actually agree with this.  I think most years the success rate drops off pretty fast around pick 20 and that's one of the reasons Belichick trades down more because he doesn't see a huge difference between pick 29 and pick 37.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There will always be hits and misses in the draft, both by BB and any other GM.   No matter what metrics are applied in the final analysis it will come down to what the decision maker thinks.  This is true in the NFL and it is true in virtually every other business decision and that's exactly what a draft selection is - a business decision.  Every executive relies to one degree or another on a variety of sources in making important decisions.  I know of no executive in any field anywhere who hits on every decision that he or she makes.  Does that mean it wasn't the correct decision at the time the decision was made?  That is not always as easy an assessment to make as it appears.  What does matter is whether or not the executive is effective at what he does to the extent that his or her organization is successful.  That's the way I look at the draft.

    We will always be able to identify and isolate a specific decision (i.e. draft pick) that did not work out.  However measuring that in isolation is, in my opinion, not a valid measure of the decision maker's effectiveness.  In the specific case of BB and his draft choices, I would assert that labeling him as a 'poor drafter' because he hits on (define 'hits' and pick a percentage) 40% of his picks without an objective benchmark is akin to labeling Ted Williams a poor hitter because in 1941 he only got a base hit in 40% of his at bats.  Absent context such an evaluation is devoid of any meaning.  In short, cherry picking draft selections is no valid measure, IMO.

    My 2 cents.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A reasonable analogy/perspective. Here is another way to look at it.

     

     

    Basically the picks are currency to acquire potential assets -- i.e, the talent. BB and his team decide how much of the currency is each talent worth. Other teams do the same. The thing is, every year it seems that a lot of teams' valuation of the talent converges -- establishing a "market" value. In the first round, that market valuation is historically very good. BB seems to refuse to recognize that. Because of it, I believe he had overpaid for some of the talent acquired, and missed on some.

    [/QUOTE]

    Or is it because the difference in draft position of 25-31 and mid 2nd round is not as great? Meaning, he feels like the talent level between those 2 areas is not as great as the money committed and the amount of extra picks he can acquire by trading down.

    If we drafted in the top 15 every year, I don't think we would trade down nearly as much. The talent or interpretation of talent is a broad spectrum after the 1st 15-20 picks in most years imo.

    Anyway, i don't think he refuses to recognize there is talent in the 1st round, I just think that as we go 12-4 or 13-3 on average it is prudent to trade down and acquire picks(from that draft postion) to draft guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman etc...If BB made all his picks the last 6 years we would be missing some pretty important players, and perhaps not made any of our last 3 afc championships in a row.

    Then fans would actually have something to complain about.

    [/QUOTE]

    I actually agree with this.  I think most years the success rate drops off pretty fast around pick 20 and that's one of the reasons Belichick trades down more because he doesn't see a huge difference between pick 29 and pick 37.  

    [/QUOTE]

    We agreed on something!!??!!??.......prepare for Global Thermo Nuclear War!

    Bonus points if you know the movie reference..

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    There will always be hits and misses in the draft, both by BB and any other GM.   No matter what metrics are applied in the final analysis it will come down to what the decision maker thinks.  This is true in the NFL and it is true in virtually every other business decision and that's exactly what a draft selection is - a business decision.  Every executive relies to one degree or another on a variety of sources in making important decisions.  I know of no executive in any field anywhere who hits on every decision that he or she makes.  Does that mean it wasn't the correct decision at the time the decision was made?  That is not always as easy an assessment to make as it appears.  What does matter is whether or not the executive is effective at what he does to the extent that his or her organization is successful.  That's the way I look at the draft.

    We will always be able to identify and isolate a specific decision (i.e. draft pick) that did not work out.  However measuring that in isolation is, in my opinion, not a valid measure of the decision maker's effectiveness.  In the specific case of BB and his draft choices, I would assert that labeling him as a 'poor drafter' because he hits on (define 'hits' and pick a percentage) 40% of his picks without an objective benchmark is akin to labeling Ted Williams a poor hitter because in 1941 he only got a base hit in 40% of his at bats.  Absent context such an evaluation is devoid of any meaning.  In short, cherry picking draft selections is no valid measure, IMO.

    My 2 cents.

     

     

    [/QUOTE]

    A reasonable analogy/perspective. Here is another way to look at it.

     

     

    Basically the picks are currency to acquire potential assets -- i.e, the talent. BB and his team decide how much of the currency is each talent worth. Other teams do the same. The thing is, every year it seems that a lot of teams' valuation of the talent converges -- establishing a "market" value. In the first round, that market valuation is historically very good. BB seems to refuse to recognize that. Because of it, I believe he had overpaid for some of the talent acquired, and missed on some.

    [/QUOTE]

    Or is it because the difference in draft position of 25-31 and mid 2nd round is not as great? Meaning, he feels like the talent level between those 2 areas is not as great as the money committed and the amount of extra picks he can acquire by trading down.

    If we drafted in the top 15 every year, I don't think we would trade down nearly as much. The talent or interpretation of talent is a broad spectrum after the 1st 15-20 picks in most years imo.

    Anyway, i don't think he refuses to recognize there is talent in the 1st round, I just think that as we go 12-4 or 13-3 on average it is prudent to trade down and acquire picks(from that draft postion) to draft guys like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman etc...If BB made all his picks the last 6 years we would be missing some pretty important players, and perhaps not made any of our last 3 afc championships in a row.

    Then fans would actually have something to complain about.

    [/QUOTE]

    I actually agree with this.  I think most years the success rate drops off pretty fast around pick 20 and that's one of the reasons Belichick trades down more because he doesn't see a huge difference between pick 29 and pick 37.  

    [/QUOTE]

    We agreed on something!!??!!??.......prepare for Global Thermo Nuclear War!

    Bonus points if you know the movie reference..

    [/QUOTE]


    War Games

    Kindly credit my account.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll say one thing for this forum:  No one can ever accuse us of being in lock step.

    [/QUOTE]

    Rofl

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     I think most years the success rate drops off pretty fast around pick 20 and that's one of the reasons Belichick trades down more because he doesn't see a huge difference between pick 29 and pick 37.  

    [/QUOTE]

    That's why strategic trade-ups are the way to go. Too bad BB would still pick a stiff in that scenario.

    His best bet is to trade picks for players. That's been his greatest area of success as a GM.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?

    In response to ATJ's comment:
    [QUOTE]

    I'll say one thing for this forum:  No one can ever accuse us of being in lock step.

    [/QUOTE]


    Most used to be in lock step. But many now simply realize BB is not some genius that is way ahead of everybody else. Some realize his poor choices are in fact the problem.

    I was a pioneer in seeing through the BB myth, so I was out of lock step before it was cool.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: How Does BB Define Value?


    This alos goes with the "Cap" tread

    Every teams roster is nothing more than a "Futures" market, betting on what any player will be worth to the team during the season, and  with limitations on how many contracts you can purchase. And you have to have to have a ceratan mix of players/Contracts to put a full team , plus depth, on the field

    Every position in the NFL has current contracts, by year

    Every player is valued on current performance, and how they will get better, stay the same or get worse. .

    The only hedge against a loss is how much each contract is guranteed and the length, and they can alos be penalized for it too, plus the dead money with any deal that has gone bust.

    The value then comes into a range, which the team is trying to buy low,

    There was a thread here that showed a graphic by position of the perforance of each player under current contract, Argue a player here or there but the perormance and $ value is already done. then it i time to start betting on everything else.

    I imagine BB goes to his value charts of each player performance - and he has them on everybody, especially ones he has played, and against what the league is currently playing and the make up of his current contracts - he comes up with a $ value or range

    With Draft players - it is even less of a science. As we have seen with the % of each round that "make" it

    Drafting low, means by defintion the ability is less and the value of each player is less. And to get enough top talent on his team BB takes chances or educated guesses on every type of player, College or FA.

    Then he has to coach them up to the best of his ability, which is pretty da** good

    In the end it is nothing more than a Rubik's cube betting. And in this case there is never a perfect winner with all six sides being one color.

    The Rubiks Cube has 8 tile corners that have 3 colors each showing. And then the edge tiles which you need 2 colors and then the simple plane tiles with one color each.

    If you have fewer chances at the 3 color corner tiles  and the 2 sided ege tiles, you have to take chances. One thing we can say about BB. He has balls and is willing to take chances. He has a certain amount he wants in cap space for during the season, and a certain amount for top tier players past their prime ( like Rodney on the up side and Ocho on the down side).

    Then even if you could, except for a lucky draft year or two, you couldnt fit all the contracts within the cap for a few 3 color players, (See R Wilson for a small bet and a big payoff)

    For those that want ot kill BB on any one or all  transactions, go ahead, but

    Winning a SB is nothing but a series of bets. To get to the top on a consistent basis the leugue rules are stacked against you. No team has all star players at each position and depth for very long. Ok Seattle  and SF have it now, SF has not won  the SB and  we will see how long the seahags dont implode

    All I know is that every year we have a legit chance at winning it all. We were a scant few playes from winning 2 more SB's

    We have lost because of injury, bad luck, a few rare bad and ill timed plays by All Pro's, and a few coz,  the team wasnt ready. Very few because the talent alone was that much less than the other teams.

    On every team in the leauee , there always seems to be a chronic problem at a certain position - soem tems are just a chronic problem in themselves,

    When TB goes we won't be lucky to get a Luck - even Houston this year wont get one

    When BB goes, well get ready for a new life, and i hope I am wrong

     

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share