http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In all the above babble, not one of you addressed Eli's 75% completion rate on 40 passes. Guess what?  Passes completed in bounds run off more time than running plays. Think about that a bit, then get back to me.

     



    I did...albeit indirectly. The 75% completion rate matters only to the extent that it helped them extend their drives by a few additional plays (on aggregate, the nine more plays they had over NE), which in turn helped them gain a TOP advantage. Ultimately, that humungous TOP advantage did not translate to a lot of additional points. So it does not matter as much as you make it out to be.

    The 75% completion rate was not just about the D's failures. You also have to credit some of that to NYG playing well. Even that thrown to Manningham (?) along the sideline. Chung (was that him?) was late, but the mistake itself was small. What made that play was still a great throw by Manning. 

    All of that does not take away from the fact if not for that the safety they would have been within a FG of winning the game. And that had that INT not been throw, they could have scored that FG. You can even add to that the incompletion to WW. That was another FG opportunity (at least) thrown out of the window.

    As I said earlier, there will be highs and lows throughout a game. You are dinging the D for not playing a perfectly pretty game. There are many ways to play an effective D and some of them are not pretty. 

    By giving up only 19 points, that's what the D did - play effective even if not pretty. The 19 pts gave the Pats a close to 90% chance of winning the game (Low did the numbers a while back). Unfortunately, the offense scoring no more than 17 pts gave them a bigger probability of losing.

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    The 75% completion rate was not just about the D's failures. You also have to credit some of that to NYG playing well. Even that thrown to Manningham (?) along the sideline. Chung (was that him?) was late, but the mistake itself was small. What made that play was still a great throw by Manning.



    Look there is no doubt that Eli made a great throw and Manningham made a great catch on that play, but the mistake on that play was larger than you claim and was not committed by the player you think.  Yes Chung theoretically could have gotten there a half step earlier and knocked the ball loose with a better hit, but the real error was Sterling Moore's complete fail at the LoS.  He completely whiffed on the jam which is why Manningham was even open.  The window the ball fit into on that play was incredibly small and Eli probably wouldn't have even attempted the pass given the safety help on that side if Moore had made even a slightly better play.  Just my 2 cents.

     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    But I won't expect that to stand in your way.

    It was all the defense's fault for allowing 19 points.

    Now write us a long report on how it is the defense's fault that the 34 ppg offense has scored 14

    17

    13

    points in the last AFC home championship, and 2 Super Bowls.

    I'd love to hear it.

     



    Why don't you explain how the almost perfectly balanced offense in last season's AFC championship game (they ran the ball almost exactly as many times as they passed it before Ridley's fumble) put up 13 points in 3.5 quarters.  The "run the ball = win" crowd got completely owned by that game.  It isn't debatable.  Yeah Brady ended up with 54 passes, but almost 50% of them came in the last 8 minutes of the game when we were down by 2 TDs and had no choice.

     



    Drilling down on why the O could not score, is an entirely different conversation, worthy of another thread that I am not sure many here will have any appetite for. 

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    I thought the defense played good enough. After all, the Giant's strength all season was their passing offense(5th), not their defense(27th). Give the Giants credit, they had a good gameplan and Eli and the offense executed it well.

    The defense forced three fumbles that just bounced the wrong way. They were holding the Giants to field goals until time ran out.

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    The 75% completion rate was not just about the D's failures. You also have to credit some of that to NYG playing well. Even that thrown to Manningham (?) along the sideline. Chung (was that him?) was late, but the mistake itself was small. What made that play was still a great throw by Manning.

     



    Look there is no doubt that Eli made a great throw and Manningham made a great catch on that play, but the mistake on that play was larger than you claim and was not committed by the player you think.  Yes Chung theoretically could have gotten there a half step earlier and knocked the ball loose with a better hit, but the real error was Sterling Moore's complete fail at the LoS.  He completely whiffed on the jam which is why Manningham was even open.  The window the ball fit into on that play was incredibly small and Eli probably wouldn't have even attempted the pass given the safety help on that side if Moore had made even a slightly better play.  Just my 2 cents.

     



    Mistakes like that are pretty common. Even the best CBs and Ss make that kind of mistake pretty regularly. Ultimately, TOs are much bigger mistakes, especially ones that result in a 2 point score for the opponent (I am counting the safety as a TO even if it is not reflected that way on the score board).

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:


    One word:

     

    Shotgun.

    Go look at how many plays were run in the shotgun, dude. I am telling ya.  That's the reason. If he took the snaps far more under Center, that balance would have translated better, especially in the second half, because he would had playaction.



    Up until Ridley's fumble and not counting ST plays etc. the Patriots ran 61 plays of which 27 were in shotgun which is 44% of the time.  Of those 27 shotgun snaps 8 of them came on the hurry up drive where they scored right before the end of the half.  Excluding that drive (of 9 plays) they ran 52 plays of which 19 were in the shotgun which is 36% of the time.  Try again.

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    Drilling down on why the O could not score, is an entirely different conversation, worthy of another thread that I am not sure many here will have any appetite for. 



    I don't know how much you have following what has happened on this forum the past couple of years, but TC among others have not only been complaining about the offense, but insisting that if we simply ran the ball more we would have scored more and won.  Well last year's playoff loss pretty much put that to bed imo.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:


    But, you're picking on an UD rookie CB over looking at Tom Brady or Welker? Really?



    I'm not picking on anyone.  Just pointing out that I think most people misunderstand what happened on that play when they put the partial blame on Chung and the other partial "blame" on a great throw and catch.  Moore was at fault more than Chung and once the throw was made it was virtually undefendable, but that throw wouldn't have been made had Moore not whiffed.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    Drilling down on why the O could not score, is an entirely different conversation, worthy of another thread that I am not sure many here will have any appetite for. 

     



    I don't know how much you have following what has happened on this forum the past couple of years, but TC among others have not only been complaining about the offense, but insisting that if we simply ran the ball more we would have scored more and won.  Well last year's playoff loss pretty much put that to bed imo.

     



    I know dude. And I can see that the main topic has started to creep out of scope. I am not saying one is more right than the other, but more passing vs more running just is not what the thread was originally about. 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In all the above babble, not one of you addressed Eli's 75% completion rate on 40 passes. Guess what?  Passes completed in bounds run off more time than running plays. Think about that a bit, then get back to me.

     



    What does that prove exactly? 

    SD had a 72% completion rate and the Pats still won.

    Indy had a 84% completion rate and the Pats still won.

    I stopped looking after finding two quickly and easily addressing your point.

    The Pats still won those games because the offense did not puuuke all over themselves.

    Yeah we know and most if not all have said the D was what they were and played to what they were in the SB. They were the 31st rated pass defense in the league. They did what they did for most of the season.

    What is your point other than proving our point?

     

     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:


    Dude, don't make me post it.  I am talking first half.

     

    That's it, I am posting it:

    I got a count of 8 shotguns in the 1st qtr alone! 8 dude!  That's the base of their offense, because they ran no huddle alongside it, which means they're also throwing from that formation more than running it.

    Ridley had 4 carries, at least one frmo the shotgun itsel, but by the second series, Ridley was benched for Woodhead!  He then had only 4 more which isn't bad, but without better execution in the passing game, it still never established a true run game with him. IF you sub Woodhead at that rate, the D never buys they want to run.

    There it is! Ball game. Once I saw this, I knew they'd have a chance to blow it.

    Bye bye, Woodhead.

    Ugh.

    It's not so much the physical count of the shotguns, but the fact they never got a run game going with a lead back. The subbing was awful.

    Even look at last drive of the second qtr before half! Shotgun city and with plenty of time left. They were on Balt's 43 with 2:32 to go, but they preferred the shotgun:

     

     

    1st and 10 at BAL 43 S.Ridley left tackle to BLT 38 for 5 yards (C.Graham; P.Kruger).     2nd and 5 at BAL 38 (Shotgun) T.Brady scrambles left guard to BLT 36 for 2 yards (R.Lewis).     3rd and 3 at BAL 36 (Shotgun) D.Woodhead up the middle to BLT 34 for 2 yards (T.Suggs; P.Kruger).     4th and 1 at BAL 34 (Shotgun) Direct snap to D.Woodhead. D.Woodhead left guard to BLT 27 for 7 yards (C.Graham; B.Pollard).       Timeout #1 by NE at 00:44.     1st and 10 at BAL 27 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to A.Hernandez.     2nd and 10 at BAL 27 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to D.Branch.     3rd and 10 at BAL 27 (Shotgun) T.Brady pass short right to A.Hernandez to BLT 10 for 17 yards (J.Smith).       Timeout #2 by NE at 00:26.     1st and 10 at BAL 10 (Shotgun) T.Brady scrambles left tackle to BLT 7 for 3 yards (E.Reed).       Timeout #3 by NE at 00:04.     2nd and 7 at BAL 7 S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-D.Aiken, Holder-Z.Mesko. 7 13 DRIVE TOTALS: BAL 7, NE 13, 9 plays, 36 yards, 2:32 elapsed

    http://scores.espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=330120017&period=2

    Here is the premise: Woodhead should have never been subbed in as part of the gameplan in the 1st and 2nd qtrs. I am not saying "don't ever use Danny Woodhead", but he clearly doesn't affect these games in enough positive ways to justify the use of his skill set.

    When he and Welker were over used, we lost these kinds of games. Honest truth. We never lost a game from 2009-2012 when BJGE was the true lead back.

    Any time Woodhead would get too many plays, those are the games we'd lose or barely win.

    8 carries for BJGE in 2011's title game vs Baltimore, then benched for Woodhead to try to throw to a victory played right into Balt's handsm where they almost won at the end.

     



    Rusty wtf are you talking about.  Fine if you just want to look at the first half the Patrots ran 46 plays of which 19 were from shotgun.  That is 41%.  The last drive of the half where they were hurrying up to score they ran 9 plays of which 8 were from shotgun.  So ignoring that one drive they ran 37 plays of which 11 were from shotgun.  That is a little under 30%.  You can slice and dice it however you want.  I am correct.  You are not.

     
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  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

    Wow. So, a backpedal from you?

     

    What I am talking about? I am talking about a no huddle and or shotgun being a 90% of the time pass play and Woodhead used too much in the first, which blocked the establishment of the run game.

    You are looking at total passes attempted and rushes an I am saying that it's not good enough to do only that.

    You have to look at the subbing of the RBs in and out which is tied to the shotgun spread problem and predicatbility, which you darn well know is part of my premise.

     



    No you are the one who is backpedaling.  First it was the lack of rushing attempts.  Then it was too much shotgun.  Now it is too much shotgun AND hurryup and the use of Woodhead.  Just stop already.

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Low-FB-IQ. Show Low-FB-IQ's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to RidingWithTheKingII's comment:

     

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

     

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

     

    In all the above babble, not one of you addressed Eli's 75% completion rate on 40 passes. Guess what?  Passes completed in bounds run off more time than running plays. Think about that a bit, then get back to me.

     

     



    What does that prove exactly? 

     

    SD had a 72% completion rate and the Pats still won.

    Indy had a 84% completion rate and the Pats still won.

    I stopped looking after finding two quickly and easily addressing your point.

    The Pats still won those games because the offense did not puuuke all over themselves.

    Yeah we know and most if not all have said the D was what they were and played to what they were in the SB. They were the 31st rated pass defense in the league. They did what they did for most of the season.

    What is your point other than proving our point?

     

     




    Ouch!  LOL!

     

    Prolate bludgeoned in one fell swoop!

    Sadly, Prolate is a newer fan and doesn't realize BB likes to us ethe bend don't break, where it may yield a higher compl%, but the end result usually yields FGs, not TDs.

    Once the Giants kicked two FGs in the second half, I felt they were cooked.  Unfortunately, our offense crapped its collective pants in the 4th qtr, starting with that Brady INT.

     

     



    king i am not here to bludgeon anyone. I have had plenty of fine discussions will prolate in the past.

     

    The reason I take the time to answer back and or go look up additional information is that I am open to understanding what they are trying to say and see if it's accurate, proves out, etc.

    It just has not in this case.

    The sad part is that all this time I have spent looking at all the goofy numbers has only proven what my eyes told me in real time as the game was unfolding.

    I mean Pezz and prolate have BOTH in various forms in various posts listed or admitted the offenses problems in that game so I am not sure why they feel the need to continue to try and prove something more??

    I've always maintained that when I say the offense I mean the whole offense, including the OC, and HC. (yes admittedly the 2011 SB was the one game in which Brady whom I love really irritated me because it felt like he was feeling his own legacy and pressing. ...bu that is just a personal feeling)

    I want to use an analogy to explain my perception of this discussion.

    When you are with a woman and you make a compliment about another woman, whom you observe, to the woman you are with, the woman you are with will often say something like so what are you saying I am not "what ever the compliment was you gave the other woman".

    This is my perception of this discussions. It's like because I say the offense really underperformed that some people are taking exception to that as if I am some how saying the defense turned into the steel curtain in the SB. I never have.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to Low-FB-IQ's comment:

    ....I want to use an analogy to explain my perception of this discussion.

    When you are with a woman and you make a compliment about another woman, whom you observe, to the woman you are with, the woman you are with will often say something like so what are you saying I am not "what ever the compliment was you gave the other woman"...




    Funny.

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    I think this writer has been reading my posts.  This is exactly what I have been saying for quite some time now.  

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    Every team has problems. Their are no "great" teams anymore. Every team is some shade of average. The super bowl champion Ravens lost 4 of their last 5 games going into the playoffs and should have lost to Denver in the divisional round.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    But I won't expect that to stand in your way.

    It was all the defense's fault for allowing 19 points.

    Now write us a long report on how it is the defense's fault that the 34 ppg offense has scored 14

    17

    13

    points in the last AFC home championship, and 2 Super Bowls.

    I'd love to hear it.

     



    Why don't you explain how the almost perfectly balanced offense in last season's AFC championship game (they ran the ball almost exactly as many times as they passed it before Ridley's fumble) put up 13 points in 3.5 quarters.  The "run the ball = win" crowd got completely owned by that game.  It isn't debatable.  Yeah Brady ended up with 54 passes, but almost 50% of them came in the last 8 minutes of the game when we were down by 2 TDs and had no choice.

     




    It was always about being less predictable. Which for our offense meant running more as everybody knew we would pass more often then not for the past 6 years.

    Are you blaming the running game for our horrible showing in the afc game?

    I guess if you want to get right down to it I would say Tom Brady sucked, Hernandez sucked, Lloyd sucked, WW was contained and only showed up on the stat sheet because the Ravens gave him his 7 yard catches knowing he couldnt break a long 1, our O-line didn't get push, our RB's had no vision and couldn't make anything happen.

    Maybe you just think it is coincidence, or maybe you think we have no talent, but when I see a team score 35 ppg I know they have talent, they just couldn't play clutch football, and I know what that is, it's coaching/motivating guys to get up for the moment. Nothing more.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    With Washington and the current stable of backs there is no reason that Pats O shouldn't win a TOP/Field Position game. tailor the offense to exploit the opposing D. The Pats have the personel to do it. I might be happier with another WR, but I don't want BB to handcuff the team in the future (backloaded contract ideally) getting one.


    For me the worst game ever was when Rice gashed the Pats D for 200+ total yards. Everything stunk that day. This current D is great against the run, Jones looks great, and if everyone stays healthy the secondary will be better. The key for me is for the D to continue to create turnovers. I don't know why people think you need the best secondary in human history to win (failure to sign injury-prone Grimes....really.... even though the 2013 draft is projected to be deep at CB). If having the best CB dual meant anything the Jets Cro-Magnon and Revis Island State Prison would have won more than six games last year. Before that Champ Bailey and Dunta Robinson won nothing. I'd be very concerned if Belichick ever commited more than 16m/per year on two  DBs...could mean no extensions for Spikes or a FA pass rusher.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ - The Patriots Real Problem

    Low FQ. Insightful and hilarious.

     

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