I feel a draft..

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move.

    This sounds suspiciously like junk science.  Please provide some data to support this otherwise I call BS....

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to MattC05's comment:

     

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     


    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move. So statistically speaking that 1 1st has a better chance of hitting then a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th combined. Of course that doesn't take talent into account. If the talent lever from the back of the 1st to the early 4th is the same then yes taking more players is the better move, however, we have to see the talent drop off from #29 to #52 before making a decision to if that's the right move

     



    That hit rate also drops off for each third of the first round.  A #29 is much less likely to hit than a #9 or a #19.  And my feeling is that this year, that #29 pick would have been the talent level of a mid 2nd in years past.  Once Datone Jones came off the board, I think there wasn't really anyone who blew my panties off.

     

    Patterson?  Frederick?  Ogletree?  Elam?  If those are the 29-32 picks, I'll take my chances with 3 mid rounders.

     



    If that 2nd wasn't so far back in the round it would have been a great trade but as it stands being so far back does bring up the question if a J Williams, Hunt, Hankins, or Taylor come off the board before the Pats pick again and they turn into a solid starting caliber player or worse another Matthews was it the right move? We'll have to wait and see who they get with those picks and who might fall to them but I'm not going to proclaim itas a bad or good move right now until we see the picks first.

     



    making my point/concern

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from bredbruu. Show bredbruu's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to MattC05's comment:

     

    In response to UD6's comment:

     

    on the other hand, the pats haven't had an unproductive 1st rounder in the last 5 years.

     



    That's because they don't waste first rounders when there isn't a sure thing available.  There was no "first round talent" available at #29.

     

    "lest you forget - beguette, dowling, mallett, price, brace, butler, tate, mckenzie, orhnberger, wheatley, crable, oconnell, wilhite. " - and you forgot Dennard, Vereen, Ridley, Gronk, Spikes, Hernandez, Mesko, Deaderick, Vollmer, Edelman and Slater.  Gee, it's almost like they're 50/50 picking in the 2nd-6th rounds.  Makes sense to grab 3 additional picks in that range, then.

     



    hopw man sbs with those guys. jags are fine but you need playmakers and game changers. we need 2- 3 more at d line wr, def backfield and weve got a good chance at a sb

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move.

     

     

    This sounds suspiciously like junk science.  Please provide some data to support this otherwise I call BS....



    http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

     

    There you go Wozzy here's a chart too

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from poopsteo. Show poopsteo's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to agill1970's comment:

    Is Alfonzo Denard a JAG?

    How about Shane Vereen and Stephen Ridley?

    Or Gronkowski, Spikes, and Hernandez?

    Sebastian Vollmer?

    Julian Eldleman?

    My point?  1st rounders are no guarantee and in just the last few years BB has done very well outside of the 1st round. 

     

     



    Take a look at the 09 draft... Not a lot of players remain but nailed it with sea bass. 

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to wozzy's comment:

     

     

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    The problem with that is statistically the average hit rate drops by 2/3rds for each round you move.

     

     

    This sounds suspiciously like junk science.  Please provide some data to support this otherwise I call BS....

     

     



    http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

     

    There you go Wozzy here's a chart too



    Thanks Eng, I'll check it out...

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from poopsteo. Show poopsteo's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    Johnathan Hankins might be the best DT in the draft.  If not Johnathan Jenkins, Jessie Williams and TJ Barnes are right there.  Jamar Taylor is the second best corner in the draft after Trufant, if not Dwayne Gratz, Will Davis, David Amerson and Logan Ryan are all gamers.  Tavon Austin is the only good wide receiver to come off the board, the Pats could come away with two or even three WR's to bring to camp...



    I will be real disappointed if Pats don't land Hankins. Same with Jenkins kid from Georgia. Really want Justin hunter!!!! Hope it doesn't turn into 09 all over again.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to poopsteo's comment:

    I will be real disappointed if Pats don't land Hankins. Same with Jenkins kid from Georgia. Really want Justin hunter!!!! Hope it doesn't turn into 09 all over again.



    The way the first round played out and plethora of picks Minny was offering made the decision to trade down easy.  With every offensive lineman taken in the 1st I smiled a little more on the inside...

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to poopsteo's comment:

     

    I will be real disappointed if Pats don't land Hankins. Same with Jenkins kid from Georgia. Really want Justin hunter!!!! Hope it doesn't turn into 09 all over again.

     



    The way the first round played out and plethora of picks Minny was offering made the decision to trade down easy.  With every offensive lineman taken in the 1st I smiled a little more on the inside...

     



    If Minns 2nd was say in the top 42 range I'd agree but sitting so far back those we could possible have on our board could be gone. Now Caserio was commneted this morning that they cold trade up if they feel someone they want might be gone before they pick. This is good but then they are rolling the dice that someone won't fleece them to move up and someone wants to move back too not to mention that the player is still there. It's a big gambling tactic. One that could pay off big if they get the player they want and come away with a couple extra picks, however, it could also backfire and they could easily lose the players they want and be left with the second choices. We'll have to wait to see who they get but it's clear to me BB is a gambler in the draft. He's a craps player who's plays multiple lines instead of just playig the higher perchentage over

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from wozzy. Show wozzy's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

    If Minns 2nd was say in the top 42 range I'd agree but sitting so far back those we could possible have on our board could be gone. Now Caserio was commneted this morning that they cold trade up if they feel someone they want might be gone before they pick. This is good but then they are rolling the dice that someone won't fleece them to move up and someone wants to move back too not to mention that the player is still there. It's a big gambling tactic. One that could pay off big if they get the player they want and come away with a couple extra picks, however, it could also backfire and they could easily lose the players they want and be left with the second choices. We'll have to wait to see who they get but it's clear to me BB is a gambler in the draft. He's a craps player who's plays multiple lines instead of just playig the higher perchentage over



    The drafts not over yet, they could still package the 7's and move up into the top of the 2nd.  We don't need a ton of bodies for camp and I agree with your quality over quantity sentiment.  But I might add that the data in the chart above doesn't include undrafted free agents nor does it get personal, some GM's are better than others and find talent late, other GM's like the Vikings overspend for lesser talents in the 1st round which allows the more successful GM's to look good.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: I feel a draft..

    In response to wozzy's comment:

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

     

     

    If Minns 2nd was say in the top 42 range I'd agree but sitting so far back those we could possible have on our board could be gone. Now Caserio was commneted this morning that they cold trade up if they feel someone they want might be gone before they pick. This is good but then they are rolling the dice that someone won't fleece them to move up and someone wants to move back too not to mention that the player is still there. It's a big gambling tactic. One that could pay off big if they get the player they want and come away with a couple extra picks, however, it could also backfire and they could easily lose the players they want and be left with the second choices. We'll have to wait to see who they get but it's clear to me BB is a gambler in the draft. He's a craps player who's plays multiple lines instead of just playig the higher perchentage over

     



    The drafts not over yet, they could still package the 7's and move up into the top of the 2nd.  We don't need a ton of bodies for camp and I agree with your quality over quantity sentiment.  But I might add that the data in the chart above doesn't include undrafted free agents nor does it get personal, some GM's are better than others and find talent late, other GM's like the Vikings overspend for lesser talents in the 1st round which allows the more successful GM's to look good.

     



    sorry Wozzy but 3 7ths don't buy much and most teams toss them in as throw away pieces. 3 7ths is about the same value as a late 5th. If you want to move into the top of the 2nd you are looking at one of those 3rds with the early 2nd.

     

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