In response to ccnsd's comment:
Both teams had their best game of the year against solid competition so I understand why someone would pick Buffalo but I really think the Pats will play well and it's at home. I would take the points though that is more points than I would have expected.
I can understand why you would rate Miami as "solid competition" because it derailed the Pats' shot at the top seed in the conference and it's important to a certain kind of fan to make it seem like that's okay, but Baltimore stinks on ice and needed officiting that prompted an apology from the league to get by a horrible Vikings team and then exploded for six -- count 'em . . . six -- field goals to win a game it appeared neither them nor the Lions particularly cared to win, to keep their laughable playoff hopes alive.
Frankly, the number doesn't make sense to me, but you don't need me to tell you about the uncanny and inexplicable accuracy we often see from Vegas. I'm also not sure I put very much (any) stock in the Pats' supposed home-field advantage. I guess there's probably something to be said for the simple expedient of not being in the other team's building and having to deal with their fans, but when I see the lackluster attitude of so many of the Gillette faithful on television I have a hard time believing anybody gets too worried about having to visit Foxboro.
Frankly, the way this particular season has gone, New England looks set up to lose this one, but the problem with week 17 is you just never know who is going to show up and who isn't. I see the Pats squeaking this one out and those points just look too damned attractive, and when the numbers suggest that somebody knows something that I don't (which isn't nearly as rare as you might think), I stay away.