This is how I see things laying out.

Welker, Talib, and Vollmer, Edelman are all important FA's this coming season

Spikes I believe will be a FA the season after.

McCourty, Solder Ridley and Brady I believe after.

 

I think McCourty and Spikes are the "MUSTS". Brady isn't going to be around forever, need to lock up the core defensive players so that we can have a defense help with whoever the next young QB is. Establish a strong linebacking corp (Spikes, Hightower, Mayo), solid safety (McCourty) and other components and we may have a defense that can carry a good young QB like we did in the early 2000's.

Edelman I think should be available via a a short and cheap. Injury prone receiver who hasn't had eye popping numbers. That being said, wouldn't surprise me if someone like the Dolphins try to pick him from our team and overpay.

Talib and Vollmer are questionable. Talib has been a huge difference since coming in. However, he is a talented cb coming off his rookie deal. I'd be surprised if he isn't looking for a huge deal. Considering how shaky the cb position is around the league, wouldn't surprise me if he demands a Brandon Carr type contract (5 years 50 mil, 25 guaranteed). My personal opinion, franchise Talib for 2013 and hope Dennard can develop into your number 1.

Vollmer is questionable because he's a top 3 RT with an injury history. I have a feeling this will be a case of a player who you shouldn't give a big contract too, but someone will overpay for him. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Ridley, Solder and Brady can be a story for another day.

 

To me, if you're going to resign Welker, you're like going to have to front load the deal. That being said, Brady's cap hit will be larger in 2013 and 2014 because he took a cut this season. Don't see how you can afford Talib should that be the case.

As much as most of us want Wes, I just can't see how the Patriots can make it work. Can you name 5 MLB's better and as young as Spikes? Probably not. He's probably going to get a deal somewhere slightly south of Bowman (5 years 45 mil, 25 guaranteed). Same with McCourty, he is growing into the position. How many FS can you say are significantly better? He's going to get paid.

Only way I can see Welker staying is if he takes a discounted 2 year deal. I'm not sure if he would do it. And if he did, it might come at the cost of Talib.

 

From what I saw on ESPN on July 12th, Pats had 10 million in cap space. In 2013, Brady's cap hit rises from 8 to about 18. Don't know what the other numbers are, but I don't think it bolds well for Welker. Sucks to think that Welker may go, but these are the type of decisions you have to make to sustain a successful franchise

Our D-fence has been hugely improved since Talib arrived.

That can't be coincidence.

I would say Talib-Welker-Vollmer.

 

This, of course, assumes Talib will toe the party line and not get back to being a bonehead sometimes.

both :)

have to choose, need to wait till end of year. may lean talib. affects the whole de,. so does welker (affect whole off) , but we can develop, add more weapons on off. will wait to decide.

do you kno whow much the cap increases theis year. bradys #s can be pushed out. bifg increase in 2014.

id keep both

In response to bredbru's comment:

I know the cap increases, but by how much? That are quotes from Kraft that he does not belive the cap increase will be significant, not like 2006. Don't think you can push Brady's numbers without giving him another extension. After this season, only two more, unless you want to make his 2014 cap hit huge.

Also, not sure the numbers of Mayo's deals, but I'm pretty sure his extension kicks in after this season.

 

Perfect world, Patriots get to keep all their good players. Not gonna happen though. Didn't want to see Milloy, Law, Samuel and Seymour go but they did. Those players weren't let go because they were no good but because BB knew he had, arguably, more important contracts that he would need to tend to. I don't think BB wants to see WW go, but he knows he needs to let him go if he wants to keep a more competitive 53 man roster.

As for Talib, I am absolutely fearful of giving a guy with character issues getting a huge contract. Not only that, has he played at a level that you would pay him CB1 money? He's good, but he's not special good. Again, Dennard has looked good for a rookie. I would franchise Talib, let he and Dennard play together. Hopefully by year 3, Dennard has developed into a CB1 and you can be in the market to pay for a cb2 as opposed to a cb1. You'll have an extra 2 years of Dennard before you need to worry about his contract

I think we need to keep Talib, Welker, Vollmer in that order. I think Edelamn will be back because his injury will limit the market for him. The Pats should also be proactive and try to resign Spikes. Having said all that I think BB will restructure Brady and maybe Mayo's deals to help the team out. This can also push TB12's big paydays back to 2014 or 2015 whenever the cap is due to go up.

In response to Quagmire3's comment:

Brady's contract started in 2011, so 2011,2012,2013 and 2014. Correct me if I'm wrong. So really, only two seasons left, and as I read earlier, cap increase isn't expected to be significant.

I hope they extend Spikes and McCourty soon. By their career trajectory (Strictly safety for McCourty), they are improving over time. That means, the longer the Pats wait, the more expensive these guys get.

How much would you give Talib? And how much do you think he'll demand? I through out Carr's contract because it was the most recent contract for a cb at a similar skill level. I'm not too sure I want the Pats to give Talib that kind of contract.

Grimes, Porter, Cox, DRC, and I expect Asomugha will all be available FA cbs. (Pretty sure PHI will cut Asomugha).

Gut tells me Eagles will resign DRC and he may set the market for Talib

In response to Quagmire3's comment:

"Talib, Welker, Vollmer in that order"
what he said

 

re:

"I think Edelamn will be back because his injury will limit the market for him. The Pats should also be proactive and try to resign Spikes. Having said all that I think BB will restructure Brady and maybe Mayo's deals to help the team out. This can also push TB12's big paydays back to 2014 or 2015 whenever the cap is due to go up."

all things i have said on this site myself.

its awesome when some people can really see stuff deeply about football and the organization and you can actaully share that "sight", that seeing with another or a few others. one of the best things about sharing on a website like this (even though this particular one has some of the most emotionally immature, and thus needing to attack their own as some on this site).

exceptional post.

In response to dapats1281's comment:

i have been saying since the talib's first game here, extend him while he is still happy to be in the league and with the pats and before he gets conifidence in his play or think someone else will give him money (when his chips were lowest) woulda signe him to a 3-4 mil a year 4 year deal  with behavior and games played conditons, 2 yrs guaranteed.  

now id still try to do that, but might be harder and may have to yield and or give more. 

i too brought up spikes for consideration we have him for another year. i was discussing does he stay halthy and what does his perf look like.  at this point if we can extend him for a lot less than value id do that in offseason. if hes pushing op #s of what hes worth, i pay attn next season for opportunity (injury, performance, etc and leverage)

mccourty is tricky, though an easy call cause bb likes him so much. personally i knew he woudl be better at safety and said so last preseason (only spot i had for him on the team). i want to see more of what he is at safety because i dont know if we can get by on essentially 2 free safeties. maybe wilson develops and helps with that. anyway bb will keep him im sure and i believe hes not going anywhere else in his mind. 

mcc migh tbe next yers startign fs and we bring in a top vet in fa to play the other#1 safety position

In response to dapats1281's comment:

you need the height and the ability of talib. you dont have that in dennard. doesnt have the height to replace talib with denard so i dont see a 1 to 1 replacent.

re behavior/character you can put that in his contract

I hope both. We've seen the difference since Talib came on board. The secondary is almost completely different than early season. Arrington now covers the slot, Talib and Dennard replace McCourty and Arrington or Moore, while McCourty moves to safety which he's very good at. 

Welker is still money, keep them both if possible.

No way in hell BB is going to give Spikes $9 mil per unless he does something drasticall different than he has been. I doubt anybody else will give him that much either.

And McCourty is a few games away from looking like a rookie contract cut, much less a must sign. His more promising work at S for a few games needs to stick fro the rest of the year and the playoffs to be considered real. Don't forget how good he looked as a rook and then how badly he regressed. Much better to err to the side of letting him walk than to get stuck with a pricey bum.

Edelman is a backup. That's what he should get paid like.

Vollmer is not a good bet to sink any big money into. Career ending injury waiting to happen.

Talib is still unproven and if he is going to coat top dollar, no thanks. Rent somebody else for a year or two instead.

Welker is no kid so paying him top $$$ is probably ill advised. But a 2-3 year deal for 85% of the top money he can make seems doable. Despite his huge drop in the SB, I would hate to see him go.

 

I have a sneaking feeling about that. Somehow I think Wes is going to redeem himself bigtime. He just seems like that kind of guy.

 

In response to sporter81's comment:

the secondary is different sporter? the whole defense is different