Re: Interesting Offensive Stats: 2012 vs 2011
posted at 1/2/2013 8:43 AM EST
In response to zbellino's comment:
In response to coolade2's comment:
In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
In response to palookaski's comment:
Thanks for your good work and interesting indeed.
Wondering about the impact (2011 as opposed to 12) ie; O'B vs McD has any bearing? Gronk and Hern missing much time? Lot to think about dealing with details such as those.
Thanks again ...;-))
Good questions. It's possible the absence of Hern and Gronk are one reason the average yards per passing play is down. Those guys are good YAC guys.
As far as changes to playcalling and gameplanning, there clearly has been more emphasis on the run this year. I'm not sure that's purely a Bill O'Brien-Josh MacDaniels thing, though. I think the drafting of Ridley and Vereen showed the coaches (O'Brien and Belichick) felt the run needed to be improved after 2010 (a season in which O'Brien did try to emphasize the run). I think in 2011, the coaches felt they weren't there yet with two rookies, and so devised an offense that took advantage of the strengths in the short passing game. In the offseason last year, there was a stated desire to become more effective in the run. Josh probably had something to do with that, but I think O'Brien and Belichick would have done the same as well.
Regardless, the offense in 2012 is highly productive--but pretty much equally productive as in 2011. Even the offensive statistics suggest that the biggest change in the team has been in defense. The slight increase in scoring is in large part due to a doubling of defensive TDs. It also probably has to do with the increase in drives and TOP, which probably has to do with both the offense and defense being slightly more efficient. The offense has slightly extended its drives while the defense has decreased the yards given up per game by about 38.
good number crunching ... Except you left out first downs....
2011 . 369 first downs total(non penalty).
. . . 89 of 194 3rd down conversion. 45.9%
2012. 407 first downs (non penalty).
. . . . 110 of 226 3rd down conversions 48.7%.
These numbers are telling since the use of a running game makes 3 rd does easier to convert. Clearly this years offense is much better, even without gronk and Hernandez for long stretches. not even close.
Also , stop making excuses for O'Brien... He was terrible. Backs weren't ready ? Ridley was excellent, and the other guys bjge woodhead etc. were quite capable.
You need to justify this.
Your statement has no backing whatsoever. A use of running game makes getting third downs easier? Simply saying that doesn't make it true.
One doesn't logically follow the other. Sorry. I could just as easily say three step drops make getting third downs easier.
Clearly, the offense, given its efficiencies are almost *spot on* performs the same as O'Briens.
It's very, very easy to see ... more help from the defense (vastly improved in *real* numbers at gettting off the field on thrid down) + faster playcalling/play running = more posessions.
The first alone, going from 30th to 17th in DSR on defense *should* yeild you an extra handful or so possessions over the course of a season. That's the extra points, yards, plays, etc. The efficiencies of this offense and last years are basically identical.
The increase in 3rd down percentage probably has to do with the fact that Ridley carries at 4.1 YPC on first down, and BJGE (last season) was at 3.4 YPC on first down. But even then it's a nominal increase.
It could be rephrased, like 3rd down conversion increase is related to better play calling overall but also the use of a running game (90% of which happens on 1st and 2nd down) providing shorter 3rd downs to convert. this is logical to me and it is shown in the numbers.