Interesting quote I saw

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from dreighver. Show dreighver's posts

    Interesting quote I saw

    "I ran the numbers a few years ago to derive an average league-wide success rate for draft picks, round-by-round (can't find the file at the moment). IIRC, the percentages were something like this:


    1st - around 70% (with a significant difference between the top half and the bottom half, though I don't recall exactly what it was)
    2nd - around 40%
    3rd/4th - around 22%
    5th - under 10%
    6th/7th - slightly over 10%

    "Success" for a 3rd/4th rounder defined by the NFP Prospect Grading Scale (paraphrasing) is:

    Solid college player who becomes a long-term backup/rotational/depth guy for a championship team with some potential to become an adequate or better starter after a couple years development (anything more being a bonus).

    By that definition, BB has hit on about 10 of 33 3rd/4th round picks with the Pats, so slightly above league average."

     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    Yes, but do we really want to move back into that range as often as we do if you only expect backup/depth guys with potential to be adequate starters vs what you tend to trade away is a 1st or 2nd in which you are expectting a start within a couple years of development? Esp, with such a drop in success rate? If you trade a 2nd for a 3rd and 4th you are essentially trading a chance at a better overall starter for what a 4% chance of finding 2 players who might only play backup roles or take more time to become adequate starters?

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw


    Belichick is doing it wrong. It's so obvious. 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    Yeah, he's average. It's obvious.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from rtuinila. Show rtuinila's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    I can't understand why they don't fire BB and hire Babe!

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    In response to dreighver's comment:

    "I ran the numbers a few years ago to derive an average league-wide success rate for draft picks, round-by-round (can't find the file at the moment). IIRC, the percentages were something like this:


    1st - around 70% (with a significant difference between the top half and the bottom half, though I don't recall exactly what it was)
    2nd - around 40%
    3rd/4th - around 22%
    5th - under 10%
    6th/7th - slightly over 10%

    "Success" for a 3rd/4th rounder defined by the NFP Prospect Grading Scale (paraphrasing) is:

    Solid college player who becomes a long-term backup/rotational/depth guy for a championship team with some potential to become an adequate or better starter after a couple years development (anything more being a bonus).

    By that definition, BB has hit on about 10 of 33 3rd/4th round picks with the Pats, so slightly above league average."



    This seems directionally correct.  Success drops off fairly rapidly after the top part of the first round.  It's why if you're drafting lower in the draft, accumulating lots of picks is helpful, because your odds are so low.  That's what BB does.  However, there's also an argument to be made for trading up to get more first round picks, since the odds of success are so much higher in that round.  It sounds like the scale adjusts the definition of "success" by round, so there's a higher standard applied in the first round than the second round and subsequent rounds.  That makes the difference between the odds in the first round and lower rounds even more stark, because some players who would be counted as "successes" in the lower rounds would not be counted that way in the higher rounds. 

     

     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    And the debate continues while the Pats simply keep winning.  And this of course continues the other debate:  BB or TFB. 

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    lets not forget BB is not drafting best athlete. BB is drafting best player to fit the system, and if the player is not rated by the Pats of equal or greater value to their designated slot to choose, the Pats then trade down. 

    Case in point...Jaime Collins. Pats knew that they had the highest rating on him of any other team in the draft, yet that rating was 2nd round, so why take him in rd #1? Pats had no other player on their board rated a day 1 pick, so trade out

    Pats have traded up in the draft as well. Mayo, Hightowr, ChJones.

    I think BB does a good job maneuvering to what he wants in the draft. I just dont think you are going to see BB draft a player that does not fit his system. Other wise known here as the Clay Mathews debate  

     

      

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    lets not forget BB is not drafting best athlete. BB is drafting best player to fit the system, and if the player is not rated by the Pats of equal or greater value to their designated slot to choose, the Pats then trade down. 

    Case in point...Jaime Collins. Pats knew that they had the highest rating on him of any other team in the draft, yet that rating was 2nd round, so why take him in rd #1? Pats had no other player on their board rated a day 1 pick, so trade out

    Pats have traded up in the draft as well. Mayo, Hightowr, ChJones.

    I think BB does a good job maneuvering to what he wants in the draft. I just dont think you are going to see BB draft a player that does not fit his system. Other wise known here as the Clay Mathews debate    



    Pretty much sums it up.  Not as clearly understood in this forum as it might be.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    I do think BB's drafts are fairly league average. I fail to see why thinking BB's draft record being league average needs a reply of his seasonal winning percentage? His coaching and his coaching staff are more related to wins vs losses than his draft record 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    I guess my point, rkarp, was that the draft is but one component of team building and winning.  Without players that fit the system all the coaching in the world isn't going to produce year in and year out.  BB may very well be leauge average in drafting.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from rkarp. Show rkarp's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    In response to ATJ's comment:

    I guess my point, rkarp, was that the draft is but one component of team building and winning.  Without players that fit the system all the coaching in the world isn't going to produce year in and year out.  BB may very well be leauge average in drafting.



    totally agree with you...draft is but one component.

    I simply dont see how other posters here feel that BB blows away the other teams in the draft? Other posters seem to take it personally if I feel the Pats are league average in the draft.

    This team has some outstanding players, most notably Brady. But the team wins year in and year out because of the coach and Brady, not the draft.  

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from fourjays30. Show fourjays30's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    You might as well throw out all of this draft data going forward as we are entering a new world with a rookie salary cap. Come back in five years and see where we are.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    The unfortunate aspect of any discussion involving BB's drafting is that the discussion deterioriates so rapidly that it becomes an exercise in frustration just to get through the thread.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from fessin. Show fessin's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    lets not forget BB is not drafting best athlete. BB is drafting best player to fit the system, and if the player is not rated by the Pats of equal or greater value to their designated slot to choose, the Pats then trade down. 

    Case in point...Jaime Collins. Pats knew that they had the highest rating on him of any other team in the draft, yet that rating was 2nd round, so why take him in rd #1? Pats had no other player on their board rated a day 1 pick, so trade out

    Pats have traded up in the draft as well. Mayo, Hightowr, ChJones.

    I think BB does a good job maneuvering to what he wants in the draft. I just dont think you are going to see BB draft a player that does not fit his system. Other wise known here as the Clay Mathews debate  

     

      




    Pat's actually traded back in the draft to get Mayo.  They had a 7th but traded that to New Orleans for the 10th and a 3rd round pick.  Unfortunately I think they picked Crable with that 3rd round pick.  Still, great maneuvering.

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Interesting quote I saw

    I think it's great that he does such a good job finding guys who are a long-term backup/rotational/depth guy for a championship team with some potential to become an adequate or better starter after a couple years development

    How about finding some guys who can catch and/or defend a pass?


     

     
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