Is it just me or ...

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: Is it just me or ...

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to pcmIV's comment:

    Eng:

    Of course we see the trend.  The Pats ran the ball more on 2nd and short than 2nd and long.  What exactly is controversial about this?



    My point in the other thread (because you can't see it in the little portion Pro posted) was that last year even though they ran the ball they ran it in an extremely predictable manner which nuetralized the affect of having a running game and limited any potential gains from actually running the ball. With McDaniels even though the amount of times run might be similiar to under OB the fact that McDaniels will mix it up and run it in unpredictable situations (similiar to Weis) which in turn makes the running game that more affective and will increase the ypc total and help neutralize attacking D's.

    The Titans game was a clear indication of the difference. McDaniels ran the ball on all three downs regardless of yardage left and consistently ran it throughout the game leaving the oppossing D to guess when it was coming. OB last year on the other hand would only continue to run the ball if the first couple of series appeared affective or at the very end of the game when it was no longer in doubt. He was also extremely predictive in play calling where depending on situation you could say run or pass almost every time. These are clear trends that many pointed out that needed to change going into the year. Since the play predictor came out right before the game and was based on last years data that's when I posted about it. Pro, doesn't seem the trend that you or I see (see his comments he says he didn't) and Babe clearly refuses to acknowledge have inaffective OB's play calling in reference to running the ball was mearly pointing to amount they ran and not how they ran, so that's where the controversy lies

     



    The other piece is that last year if a run didn't gain or was stopped for a loss a couple of times O'Brien tended to abandon it for the rest of the game. McDaniels kept going back to the run which was why the first downs by run/pass was almost even.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Is it just me or ...

    In response to PatsEng's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    Eng,  I posted this on another thread about the Play Predictor, but I'm not seeing quite the predictability you are.   On 2 and less than 3, they ran about 6.5 out of 10 times.  So about 4.5 in 10 they were passing.   Yeah, it's skewed toward running on short yardage (as you'd expect--a lot of them were probably QB sneaks), but it's hardly run all the time. On second and 3,4, or 5, they are pretty balanced (nearly 50-50).  Beyond five yards, they passed more as you'd expect, but even at those distances there are quite a few runs mixed in.  In fact, at second and 10, they ran almost 4 in 10 times.  At second and 8, they were almost 50-50.  

    Here's my earlier post:

    ______________
    I just ran the numbers . . . yeah, on third and medium-to-long they passed a lot.  Every team does that. I didn't see the trend that Pats Eng describes on second down.  Here are the run percentages on second down: 

    2 and 1: 72% (32 plays) 
    2 and 2: 64% (28 plays) 
    2 and 3: 56% (18 plays) 
    2 and 4: 52% (27 plays) 
    2 and 5: 46% (35 plays) 
    2 and 6: 37% (27 plays) 
    2 and 7: 15% (27 plays) 
    2 and 8: 46% (24 plays) 
    2 and 9: 7% (28 plays) 
    2 and 10: 38% (73 plays) 
    2 and 11+:17% (53 plays) 



    You don't see the clear trend? there is a very linear trend with regard to running that if I was a D cord on another team on any 2nd and 5+ play I wouldn't even bother planning against the run and almost play the pass everytime. Just to average it out from 1-5 and 6-11+ they ran almost 60% of the time when under 5yds and ran it about 25% of the time over 5yds on 2nd down. There is a clear downward trend in running attempts split about 5yds. As a matter of fact at the 5yd mark is about their season average for running so except 2 and 8 they ran well below their season average and with less they 5 yds they ran well above there season average. If you were an opposing coach you could clearly guess what he was going to do. McDaniels the other night though ran it regardless of yards left on 2nd down and even ran a number of 3rd down plays with more then 3+yds. You have to mix it up

     



    I'm sure you'd see the same trend on almost every team in the league. On second and long you're trying to avoid third and long where a pass is almost essential and therefore terribly predictable.  Nonetheless, the Pats were still running more than three out of ten times on second and 6-8yards. If you just ignored the run you'd be burned between 30% and 40% of the time. 

    For all the complaining about bill O'Brien, he led an offense that was in the top three in points scored both years he was OC. It's funny to me how some of the same people who argue that "points" is all that really matters when they talk about the defense don't acknowledge that o'brien's offenseswere very good at producing points. For all the excitement about this week's opener, points scored by the offense were only 27--below what o'brien's offense scored in the first game last year and not enough to win many games with last year's defense.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: Is it just me or ...

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

    Btw Mt, Happen to catch BJGE run over Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, the other mlb, and Mcphee for a 6 yard td on 4rth 1 from the 6?

    18 carries 91 yards and a td for Law Firm...also known as more carries then he had in all but 2 games last year. Only difference is Cinci didn't have 2 pro bowl guards paving the way like we did last year.

    Timely play calling, formations, keeping the defense guessing is what makes a run game successful....jobs of a good O.C!


    Uhm, you realize the final score was 44 to 13 right? So hypothetically a career day for Benny ended up with his team only scoring 13 points and losing by 31 points. This supposed to support arguments? I mean we can start a Benny thread and track his progress/performance all year if you want, but what if he peaked in week one?
     
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