Re: Is it just me or ...
posted at 9/11/2012 4:08 PM EDT
In response to PatsEng's comment:
In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:
Eng, I posted this on another thread about the Play Predictor, but I'm not seeing quite the predictability you are. On 2 and less than 3, they ran about 6.5 out of 10 times. So about 4.5 in 10 they were passing. Yeah, it's skewed toward running on short yardage (as you'd expect--a lot of them were probably QB sneaks), but it's hardly run all the time. On second and 3,4, or 5, they are pretty balanced (nearly 50-50). Beyond five yards, they passed more as you'd expect, but even at those distances there are quite a few runs mixed in. In fact, at second and 10, they ran almost 4 in 10 times. At second and 8, they were almost 50-50.
Here's my earlier post:
I just ran the numbers . . . yeah, on third and medium-to-long they passed a lot. Every team does that. I didn't see the trend that Pats Eng describes on second down. Here are the run percentages on second down:
2 and 1: 72% (32 plays)
2 and 2: 64% (28 plays)
2 and 3: 56% (18 plays)
2 and 4: 52% (27 plays)
2 and 5: 46% (35 plays)
2 and 6: 37% (27 plays)
2 and 7: 15% (27 plays)
2 and 8: 46% (24 plays)
2 and 9: 7% (28 plays)
2 and 10: 38% (73 plays)
2 and 11+:17% (53 plays)
You don't see the clear trend? there is a very linear trend with regard to running that if I was a D cord on another team on any 2nd and 5+ play I wouldn't even bother planning against the run and almost play the pass everytime. Just to average it out from 1-5 and 6-11+ they ran almost 60% of the time when under 5yds and ran it about 25% of the time over 5yds on 2nd down. There is a clear downward trend in running attempts split about 5yds. As a matter of fact at the 5yd mark is about their season average for running so except 2 and 8 they ran well below their season average and with less they 5 yds they ran well above there season average. If you were an opposing coach you could clearly guess what he was going to do. McDaniels the other night though ran it regardless of yards left on 2nd down and even ran a number of 3rd down plays with more then 3+yds. You have to mix it up
I'm sure you'd see the same trend on almost every team in the league. On second and long you're trying to avoid third and long where a pass is almost essential and therefore terribly predictable. Nonetheless, the Pats were still running more than three out of ten times on second and 6-8yards. If you just ignored the run you'd be burned between 30% and 40% of the time.
For all the complaining about bill O'Brien, he led an offense that was in the top three in points scored both years he was OC. It's funny to me how some of the same people who argue that "points" is all that really matters when they talk about the defense don't acknowledge that o'brien's offenseswere very good at producing points. For all the excitement about this week's opener, points scored by the offense were only 27--below what o'brien's offense scored in the first game last year and not enough to win many games with last year's defense.