Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football

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    Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football

    In Response to Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football:
    [QUOTE]TROX 1 I could use your help in Fantasy this year - I will follow up with you later- thx BSIOFAN
    Posted by BS10FAN[/QUOTE]


    I'm down to talk draft strategy with you whenever just let me know.  I've drafted 13 teams so far and will probably do another 12 not to mention at least 100 mock drafts lol yeah I'm most definitely a fantasy addict.  

    If any of you enjoy fantasy football/gambling I highly suggest you check out www.ffoc.com 1st prize is 1 million and you can have a chance to win that for as little at $10.  Also my 2 favorite sites for great fantasy content is www.footballguys.com  and  http://ownersedge.fanball.com/
     
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    Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football

    In Response to Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football:
    [QUOTE]Remember last year's draft? how many of you took or wished you took brady through picks 1-5? This year it seems that running backs (some with big question marks on them) are going into the top 5 picks. Do you think its worth taking brady if you got a #5 pick? then grab a running back in the second? For me there arent that many QBs out there and to grab one that could legit put up 40 TDs is well worth the gamble. What do you guys think??
    Posted by Boston-kyle[/QUOTE]

    depends on your leagues scoring system.   Personally, Brady would be my first pick.  Last time he was healthy for a seaon he broke records.  This year he has more weapons.

    Running backs are less attractive for me as teams are all starting to run offenses designed on the "running back by committee" approach.  You can pick a yardage guy or you can pick a bruiser to get points, either way, it's rare to find a team with a primary back who gets more than 25 hand offs a game.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from dtb-sf. Show dtb-sf's posts

    Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football

    I think it is worth considering.  It comes down to these two issues:

    1.  Do you think Brady will replicate his 2007 success?

    2.  How much better will Brady be than the average QB?

    You win Fantasy Football by creating as much separation as possible between you and your opponent each week.  A few years ago, QBs tended to score pretty close to each other.  The top 3 QBs would outscore QBs 11-13 by only five or six point a game.  However, the top 3 RBs would outscore RBs 11-13 by 10 points a game.  So if you want to beat someone, you needed a good RB, because your QBs usually cancelled out.

    Now, the scoring distribution for RBs has collapsed a little, or as people are saying above, "RBs are deep this year."  You have 10-15 quality RBs that could conceivably finish close together.  Clinton Portis may be ranked 12 but are you really sure that MJD is going to have more points than Portis?  I think the odds of that are only slightly better than 50-50.

    In 2007 though, Brady was so far above the rest of the QB field, that in retrospect he should have been the number one pick overall.  He gave you 10-20 points above the QB for whoever you were playing that week.  A RB you get in the second round will be within 5 points of the guy you could have gotten in the first round, so you come out ahead.

    So, my final answer is that if you think Brady will replicate his 2007 success (the best year ever by a QB by the way, so it's no sure thing), then take him in round 1, #1 overall if necessary.  If you think he will tail off and throw for "only" 35 TDs or so, then you should probably go for an RB in the top 5, and not start looking at Brady until 7 or so.

    People who say that "someone in my league took Brady 3 overall last year, look where that got them" makes no sense, injuries can happen to anyone, there is no telling how he would have done.  The same thing could happen to AP this year, but that doesn't mean it was stupid to take him #1.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from m1020us. Show m1020us's posts

    Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football

    In Response to Re: Is Tom Brady worth Top #5 in Fantasy Football:
    [QUOTE]I think it is worth considering.  It comes down to these two issues: 1.  Do you think Brady will replicate his 2007 success? 2.  How much better will Brady be than the average QB? You win Fantasy Football by creating as much separation as possible between you and your opponent each week.  A few years ago, QBs tended to score pretty close to each other.  The top 3 QBs would outscore QBs 11-13 by only five or six point a game.  However, the top 3 RBs would outscore RBs 11-13 by 10 points a game.  So if you want to beat someone, you needed a good RB, because your QBs usually cancelled out. Now, the scoring distribution for RBs has collapsed a little, or as people are saying above, "RBs are deep this year."  You have 10-15 quality RBs that could conceivably finish close together.  Clinton Portis may be ranked 12 but are you really sure that MJD is going to have more points than Portis?  I think the odds of that are only slightly better than 50-50. In 2007 though, Brady was so far above the rest of the QB field, that in retrospect he should have been the number one pick overall.  He gave you 10-20 points above the QB for whoever you were playing that week.  A RB you get in the second round will be within 5 points of the guy you could have gotten in the first round, so you come out ahead. So, my final answer is that if you think Brady will replicate his 2007 success (the best year ever by a QB by the way, so it's no sure thing), then take him in round 1, #1 overall if necessary.  If you think he will tail off and throw for "only" 35 TDs or so, then you should probably go for an RB in the top 5, and not start looking at Brady until 7 or so. People who say that "someone in my league took Brady 3 overall last year, look where that got them" makes no sense, injuries can happen to anyone, there is no telling how he would have done.  The same thing could happen to AP this year, but that doesn't mean it was stupid to take him #1.
    Posted by dtb_sf[/QUOTE]


    The Perfect analysis....great job.
     

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