Re: Looks like the 49ers might be done
posted at 12/28/2012 12:47 AM EST
At any point in the season the tendancy is to overweight the most recent game(s). This is not necessarily wrong but it sometimes is not truly indicative of the team in question (for better or worse). This tendancy can be even more significant in the last couple of games of the season.
Sometimes it is accurate as a team may not be able to overcome injuries that are impacting them. If those players are not coming back in time then the impact should be expected to translate into the playoff performance.
Also, some teams just start to fall by the roadside as other teams start to figure out how to play them or counteract a key player or package. If they have no answer to how the league is adjusting to playing them then again it translates into performance in the playoffs.
But sometimes teams just have a bad stretch of 1 or 2 or 3 games. It happens. Not so aften does a really really good team have a 3 game stretch of really weak performance but it can happen. A short slump does not always translate into bad playoff performance. But there is that danger.
You want to be getting healthy now. You want to be playing good football now. The Seahawks are looking good. But is some of that based on flat opponents? Even if that is a factor they are playing very well. How good are they? One reason it is ahrd to say is because they have a rookie QB who has played hugely well recently. Is that because he is really that good right now or that he is a good rookie who is just very hot right now?
SF - are they played out? Is injury too much for them to overcome? Are they going to get a second wind? I would guess that they are a real threat and not a mirage.
GB - that offense is for real. In this league that is enough to make you a bonifide challenger. Hard to say just how good the team is as a whole but if they are healthy they should be dangerous. I agree that their O line is a potential achilles heel. THeir secondary too.
Atlanta - For some reason I just do not yet believe in them! But I am not far from it.
Denver - a very real contender.
NE - if healthy... if focused... they could beat any team. But the Pats do not have a lot of room for bad play if they are going to win it all.
I am not expecting much from Houston. Baltimore played so well last week that they make me wonder whether they should be considered in the same way they were early in the year. I do not think too much of any team from the NFC East.
My expectation is either Denver or NE from the AFC. SF, GB or maybe even Seattle from the NFC. I slightly favor NE and SF. ANd I slightly favor NE over SF. But the actual odds for any one specific team is less than 50-50.