Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    From Cold Hard Football Facts:
    "The misconception is that New England doesn’t throw deep more because of the personnel around Brady. Chad Ochocinco was a major disappointment, catching just 15 passes in the regular season. “When they had Randy Moss, Brady threw deep like crazy!”
     
    No he didn’t.
     
    Using data from the Elias Sports Bureau and STATS LLC, here are Brady’s starting seasons broken down by the percentage of pass attempts he threw that were either 10 yards or shorter, or more than 20 yards in the air. Note: regular season only.
     
    Tom Brady - Pass Length %
    Season <10 yards % 21+ yards %
    2001 69.3 12.5
    2002 73.0 8.5
    2003 63.6 12.0
    2004 53.0 16.0
    2005 61.1 11.7
    2006 67.6 12.2
    2007 67.3 11.9
    2009 68.4 10.7
    2010 72.1 7.3
    2011 70.9 7.4
     
    That’s right. The 2006 Patriots, with Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Ben Watson, a 35-year old Troy Brown, and Kevin Faulk had a higher rate of passes more than 20 yards down the field than the 2007 Patriots did with Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth.
     
    “But how could that be? The 2006 Patriots had a terrible receiving corps. Randy Moss caught a record 23 touchdowns in 2007. That was a vertical offense! I saw Brady’s deep balls!”
     
    No, you saw highlights. Specifically, you saw Brady throw 15 touchdown passes that year on passes of 20+ yards. In 2006 he had only 7. Throw in the Moss factor and the opportunity for the spectacular catch, and it’s likely you saw a lot more of these plays than you would have the previous year.
     
    • 2006: Brady was 23/63 for 735 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2007: Brady was 28/69 for 1,112 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2009: Brady was 16/60 for 701 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2010: Brady was 14/36 for 537 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2011: Brady was 13/45 for 474 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    By comparison, Eli Manning led the league with 96 attempts of 20+ yards this season, completing 35 of those passes.
     
    Sure, Randy Moss can make you a more effective downfield passer, but the offense Brady is more comfortable with revolves around the short passing game because it plays to his strengths better."
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    I've been saying this for a while and good find on the chart.

    Now get ready for a heavy dose of the spin from a few here.

    Btw Tom Brady just had his highest yards per reception of his career, more then 2007, but we need a deep threat?

    The best deep threat in NFL history didn't do much for us in the 07 playoffs as our one dimensional offense was successfully game planned against.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Me too the further you get from the LOS the lower completion % there is and higher % of an INT.

    Like Willie said all season long, Patriots are not too proud to win.  They don't mind, prefer a 12 play drive than 2 plays.  Ball control, time off clock and they usually do not self destruct.
     
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  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    you are right, but it is also missing since they dont have the personell to do it....brady tried throwing a deep ball to matthew freakin slater in the afc cg and to a hobbled gronk in the super bowl....im sure brady wants to throw deep, but he has noone to throw it to deep.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]I've been saying this for a while and good find on the chart. Now get ready for a heavy dose of the spin from a few here. Btw Tom Brady just had his highest yards per reception of his career, more then 2007, but we need a deep threat? The best deep threat in NFL history didn't do much for us in the 07 playoffs as our one dimensional offense was successfully game planned against.
    Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]


    What is there to spin? When they had better deep threats, they were more effective deep. Duh.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    I don't see anything here that shows the deep ball being missing because of choice. There is no choice when you don't have the choice because you don't have the people to do it effectively.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Put all the analysis out there you want. But, the Patriots need a vertical threat with at least two big WRs who can out run outjump and get points quick.

    I don't mind the dink and dunk, or run game. But I want all the weapons we need to score at will and score points fast. I don't want a repeat of 2011.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from SilverSun. Show SilverSun's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]I agree, it's a myth. I also think it's a mistake when you know Ochocinco could get deep in man coverage, but you never really used him because Brady wanted to make easier throws to Gronk, Welker and Hernandez for YAC opps. It's true.  It makes sense, but it definitely doesn't make sense if you are playing into a team's D that knows that for 4 qtrs. NE's longest pass in the SB?  Ochocinco, 21 yards.   You can't "stretch the field" (hate this over-used, bloted phrase) if your field stretcher isn't out there being targeted on short routes and on the field enough to be a core contributor.  Playaction was also not able to be used when BJGE only had 10 carries, total. The deep ball is missing by choice.
    Posted by RustyGriswold[/QUOTE]

    Rusty you are dead on!  The problem here is that our Tom can't throw a good long ball anymore and was never great at it even when younger!  He missed Grong  - badly underthrown which could have been a TD.  He has always had a lot of misses when throwing over 20 yards.  He is not in the class of the Manning boys - not even close in this part of the passing game.  So, it is not really a receiver issue at all imo.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    It's all about the threat of doing it.

    They have no downfield threat, Ds don't defend against it, making shorter throws, and running, harder to do.

    Short passes, long passes, and a consistent running attack. Teams need to at least threaten all three of these to be truly effective in my estimation, or be historically good at 1 or 2.

    Bledsoe actually offers a perfect example. Even with Curtis Martin, Terry Glenn, Ben Coates, Shawn Jefferson, etc...the offense was never as good as, say, the 03 or 04 Pats. Bledsoe could not, to save his life, throw good short passes. Awesome on longer ones, but check downs? Oh god, my hands hurt just thinking about it.

    Pats in 03/04 had Brady, either Smith or Dillon, and some mix of: Branch/Brown/Givens/Graham/Watson etc, and moved tha ball seemingly at will. They could throw, run, basically do whatever they wanted because they threatened all 3 levels of the defense. This current offense threatens the first level a LOT, the second level some, and the 3rd hardly ever.

    The incredible shrinking field.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    OK, now run 30+

    NE has basically dropped the long pass the last couple seasons.

    The stats you are showing illustrate this.

    And yeah it's by choice ... they choose not to execute plays that aren't working well. NE's rating above 30 yards has plummeted, and those are the pass plays that force a defense to correct it's safeties position.

    I mean, seriously, watch the games. Safeties never, ever set up deep. They basically give NE the deep portion.

    If you have a credible threat back there, it forces them off the line. 
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    You should also print the remainder of the article ...

    Those 2004 Patriots with Deion Branch, David Patten and David Givens were easily the most vertical of the New England offenses under Brady. Go figure that was his best postseason (and last Super Bowl win).
     
    You can see the strong dink and dunk tendencies of early Brady (2001-02), and you can see what’s happened the last two years as they moved to a two-tight end offense. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been outstanding in their first two seasons, but there’s really no other offense in the league that’s based on two tight ends and a slot receiver.
     
    For the final drive in the Super Bowl, Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs, who had a lot to say this week (including making Albert Breer’s mouth quiver in fear), said that Brady “does a great job with the guys he has. But if that was Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers on the other side, with those big play outfits, 57 seconds would have been plenty enough time for those guys.” He said the Patriots passes are much shorter. “They needed a helluva lot more than 57 seconds to be able to win the football game,” Jacobs said. “So I wasn’t worried at all.”
     
    Defenses don’t have to be as worried either. It’s hard to imagine why any of them wouldn’t have played tight, single-coverage on the outside, rarely blitzed, and just flood the middle with defenders to stop all the inside receivers.
     
    Not being able to stretch the field isn’t something alarmingly new for the Patriots, but it becomes more of a problem when you no longer have an elite defense, and are put in more difficult positions (long fields) where you have to score, and you need big plays to do it.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    jacobs is an idiot, he can say that now....but ya know damn well noone on the nyg sideline thought it was over
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    "2 TEs and a slot receiver"

    translated

    "3 players using the same part of the field"

    We need something complimentary....anything really. We have nothing.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from Grogan77. Show Grogan77's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Hard to go deep without a deep threat.  Just my two cents.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]Put all the analysis out there you want. But, the Patriots need a vertical threat with at least two big WRs who can out run outjump and get points quick. I don't mind the dink and dunk, or run game. But I want all the weapons we need to score at will and score points fast. I don't want a repeat of 2011.
    Posted by kansaspatriot[/QUOTE]

    Kansas do you not see how this is ironic?

    If we get all the weapons we need to score at will and score fast we will see 2011 all over again as that is what just happened.

    What we really need is to protect our best asset...Tom Brady by using the run game more then we have the past 5 years and holding the football longer on O to protect our suspect defense.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    "Those 2004 Patriots with Deion Branch, David Patten and David Givens were easily the most vertical of the New England offenses under Brady. Go figure that was his best postseason (and last Super Bowl win)."

    Go figure it was also when we had the best run game. hmm.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Perhaps I should I have elaborated on what I think this article demonstrates.  I think it demonstrates that the argument of deep shots down the field being completely driven by personnel is misguided.  NE has been throwing deep less and less since 2006 even though they had Randy Moss arguably the greatest deep threat of all time in 2007 and 2009.  I think the Pats have chosen to throw deep less regardless of the personnel.

    In any event even if you don't agree with that perspective the 2004 offense demonstrates that you do not need elite personnel to throw the ball deep as I would classify everyone on that squad as solid, but not elite by any means.  This begs the question as to whether there really isn't anyone readily available or already on the roster that can be a solid "deep threat" or whether NE has made a philosophical choice to throw deep less.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]"2 TEs and a slot receiver" translated "3 players using the same part of the field" We need something complimentary....anything really. We have nothing.
    Posted by ma6dragon9[/QUOTE]

    Exactly. I've been saying this since last season.

    It's a wierd group of talent. They are good players, but they al, in an odd way, are similar in range. None of them challenge vertically, and none of them challenge the perimeter. Add in a RB who doesn't represent a threat to actually break a run, has zero speed to turn the corner consistently, and there you have it:

    NE's entire offense runs from 20 yards in, and around the hash marks. 

    Granted, they are great in that spot, but if you can wrap that spot up, the offense can be contained. 

    A better RB and WR (or two) who can truly challenge the perimeter would work wonders for diversifying the unit. 
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from LazarusintheSanatorium. Show LazarusintheSanatorium's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    "You can see the strong dink and dunk tendencies of early Brady (2001-02), and you can see what’s happened the last two years as they moved to a two-tight end offense. Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been outstanding in their first two seasons, but there’s really no other offense in the league that’s based on two tight ends and a slot receiver."

    "'2 TEs and a slot receiver'
    translated
    '3 players using the same part of the field'
    We need something complimentary....anything really. We have nothin
    g
    ."

    Right...See, HERE'S our problem then:

    5 O-Linemen + 1 Quarterback + 2 TE set + 1 Slot Receiver + 1 Runningback

    See?!?  We're only putting 10 players on the field!!!  They allow us to put up to 11, ya know... 

    Look people, 35+ year old Randy Moss isn't the answer...  He had already lost 1 step back when he retired at age 33.  When within THAT year, Safeties were creeping up, or simply affording Moss less and ever less of any double coverage, WHY then (InTH?) do ya think things'll be different now?!?  Now that Brady's deep ball with 2 years added onto career arm injury issues, we've seen less accuracy on his 15+ yard throws?  Why will it be different NOW as opposed to 2010, with Randy Moss even 2 years older, with 2 added years to his slowing down a step (even just a step, ya know?), added along and into his already SOooo 1 dimensional wideout skill-set (+20 yards Moss along the sidelines...+30 yards, and mayyyybe Moss will cross the deep, deep middle too=Wow).  The players mentioned above COULD go over the middle, and they WOULD go over the middle...  Were these guys (Patton, Givens, Branch) the vertical threat that Moss was (PRE 2010-for those counting, that'll be 4 seasons prior come next year)?  No...Moss was certainly better than them (back in the days of yore).  But guess what these guys DID have, which Moss hasn't offered in a very long time?  A: They had more than 1 single dimension to their game.  Randy Moss is an awful answer to a half loaded question. 

    ~Btw Ma6dragon...  You need an answer RE: Moss "Quitting", right?  Well, here (below) this should suffice a bit better than your Moss Music Video (check out his final year stats on BOTH Minnesotta...And Oakland...annnd New England, 'kay?  Yards per game, receptions per game-these are the best and utterly objective judges (in 3 seperate instances), considering that these are simply off of "total games in which he played" <as oppossed to years when someone was out in any game(s)):

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MossRa00.htm
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]Perhaps I should I have elaborated on what I think this article demonstrates.  I think it demonstrates that the argument of deep shots down the field being completely driven by personnel is misguided.  NE has been throwing deep less and less since 2006 even though they had Randy Moss arguably the greatest deep threat of all time in 2007 and 2009.  I think the Pats have chosen to throw deep less regardless of the personnel. In any event even if you don't agree with that perspective the 2004 offense demonstrates that you do not need elite personnel to throw the ball deep as I would classify everyone on that squad as solid, but not elite by any means.  This begs the question as to whether there really isn't anyone readily available or already on the roster that can be a solid "deep threat" or whether NE has made a philosophical choice to throw deep less.
    Posted by pcmIV[/QUOTE]

    To me it was obviously a choice made by BB and co. Send Moss away and build around the middle of the field. 2 great TE's the best slot/flanker(cuz WW cannot be called just a slot any longer) and what I though would be a return to Brady's strong suit the play action pass.

    I really don't think Brady's deep ball will ever be the same since the knee injury.

    If we wanted a deep threat Chad O looked fine with his 18.4 average, but that is not what they wanted. They wanted the high % passing game. Now find a running back that they have faith in to allow an opportunity to tote the rock and lets win another championship.


     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ayisyen. Show Ayisyen's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    This doesn't surprise me, because Brady has never been good at throwing the deep pass.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ayisyen. Show Ayisyen's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice : To me it was obviously a choice made by BB and co. Send Moss away and build around the middle of the field. 2 great TE's the best slot/flanker(cuz WW cannot be called just a slot any longer) and what I though would be a return to Brady's strong suit the play action pass. I really don't think Brady's deep ball will ever be the same since the knee injury. If we wanted a deep threat Chad O looked fine with his 18.4 average, but that is not what they wanted. They wanted the high % passing game. Now find a running back that they have faith in to allow an opportunity to tote the rock and lets win another championship.
    Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]

    It's hard to do play action, where there is no running back in the backfield.  



     
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