Notice: All Boston.com forums will be retired as of May 31st, 2016 and will not be archived. Thank you for your participation in this community, and we hope you continue to enjoy other content at Boston.com.

Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    From Cold Hard Football Facts:
    "The misconception is that New England doesn’t throw deep more because of the personnel around Brady. Chad Ochocinco was a major disappointment, catching just 15 passes in the regular season. “When they had Randy Moss, Brady threw deep like crazy!”
     
    No he didn’t.
     
    Using data from the Elias Sports Bureau and STATS LLC, here are Brady’s starting seasons broken down by the percentage of pass attempts he threw that were either 10 yards or shorter, or more than 20 yards in the air. Note: regular season only.
     
    Tom Brady - Pass Length %
    Season <10 yards % 21+ yards %
    2001 69.3 12.5
    2002 73.0 8.5
    2003 63.6 12.0
    2004 53.0 16.0
    2005 61.1 11.7
    2006 67.6 12.2
    2007 67.3 11.9
    2009 68.4 10.7
    2010 72.1 7.3
    2011 70.9 7.4
     
    That’s right. The 2006 Patriots, with Reche Caldwell, Jabar Gaffney, Ben Watson, a 35-year old Troy Brown, and Kevin Faulk had a higher rate of passes more than 20 yards down the field than the 2007 Patriots did with Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth.
     
    “But how could that be? The 2006 Patriots had a terrible receiving corps. Randy Moss caught a record 23 touchdowns in 2007. That was a vertical offense! I saw Brady’s deep balls!”
     
    No, you saw highlights. Specifically, you saw Brady throw 15 touchdown passes that year on passes of 20+ yards. In 2006 he had only 7. Throw in the Moss factor and the opportunity for the spectacular catch, and it’s likely you saw a lot more of these plays than you would have the previous year.
     
    • 2006: Brady was 23/63 for 735 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2007: Brady was 28/69 for 1,112 yards, 15 TD, 5 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2009: Brady was 16/60 for 701 yards, 9 TD, 6 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2010: Brady was 14/36 for 537 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    • 2011: Brady was 13/45 for 474 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT on passes thrown 20+ yards.
    By comparison, Eli Manning led the league with 96 attempts of 20+ yards this season, completing 35 of those passes.
     
    Sure, Randy Moss can make you a more effective downfield passer, but the offense Brady is more comfortable with revolves around the short passing game because it plays to his strengths better."
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    I've been saying this for a while and good find on the chart.

    Now get ready for a heavy dose of the spin from a few here.

    Btw Tom Brady just had his highest yards per reception of his career, more then 2007, but we need a deep threat?

    The best deep threat in NFL history didn't do much for us in the 07 playoffs as our one dimensional offense was successfully game planned against.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Me too the further you get from the LOS the lower completion % there is and higher % of an INT.

    Like Willie said all season long, Patriots are not too proud to win.  They don't mind, prefer a 12 play drive than 2 plays.  Ball control, time off clock and they usually do not self destruct.
     
  4. This post has been removed.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    you are right, but it is also missing since they dont have the personell to do it....brady tried throwing a deep ball to matthew freakin slater in the afc cg and to a hobbled gronk in the super bowl....im sure brady wants to throw deep, but he has noone to throw it to deep.
     
  6. This post has been removed.

     
  7. This post has been removed.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Put all the analysis out there you want. But, the Patriots need a vertical threat with at least two big WRs who can out run outjump and get points quick.

    I don't mind the dink and dunk, or run game. But I want all the weapons we need to score at will and score points fast. I don't want a repeat of 2011.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from SilverSun. Show SilverSun's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    I agree, it's a myth. I also think it's a mistake when you know Ochocinco could get deep in man coverage, but you never really used him because Brady wanted to make easier throws to Gronk, Welker and Hernandez for YAC opps. It's true.  It makes sense, but it definitely doesn't make sense if you are playing into a team's D that knows that for 4 qtrs. NE's longest pass in the SB?  Ochocinco, 21 yards.   You can't "stretch the field" (hate this over-used, bloted phrase) if your field stretcher isn't out there being targeted on short routes and on the field enough to be a core contributor.  Playaction was also not able to be used when BJGE only had 10 carries, total. The deep ball is missing by choice.
    Posted by RustyGriswold


    Rusty you are dead on!  The problem here is that our Tom can't throw a good long ball anymore and was never great at it even when younger!  He missed Grong  - badly underthrown which could have been a TD.  He has always had a lot of misses when throwing over 20 yards.  He is not in the class of the Manning boys - not even close in this part of the passing game.  So, it is not really a receiver issue at all imo.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    It's all about the threat of doing it.

    They have no downfield threat, Ds don't defend against it, making shorter throws, and running, harder to do.

    Short passes, long passes, and a consistent running attack. Teams need to at least threaten all three of these to be truly effective in my estimation, or be historically good at 1 or 2.

    Bledsoe actually offers a perfect example. Even with Curtis Martin, Terry Glenn, Ben Coates, Shawn Jefferson, etc...the offense was never as good as, say, the 03 or 04 Pats. Bledsoe could not, to save his life, throw good short passes. Awesome on longer ones, but check downs? Oh god, my hands hurt just thinking about it.

    Pats in 03/04 had Brady, either Smith or Dillon, and some mix of: Branch/Brown/Givens/Graham/Watson etc, and moved tha ball seemingly at will. They could throw, run, basically do whatever they wanted because they threatened all 3 levels of the defense. This current offense threatens the first level a LOT, the second level some, and the 3rd hardly ever.

    The incredible shrinking field.
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from redsoxfan94. Show redsoxfan94's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    jacobs is an idiot, he can say that now....but ya know damn well noone on the nyg sideline thought it was over
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from ma6dragon9. Show ma6dragon9's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    "2 TEs and a slot receiver"

    translated

    "3 players using the same part of the field"

    We need something complimentary....anything really. We have nothing.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from Grogan77. Show Grogan77's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Hard to go deep without a deep threat.  Just my two cents.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    Put all the analysis out there you want. But, the Patriots need a vertical threat with at least two big WRs who can out run outjump and get points quick. I don't mind the dink and dunk, or run game. But I want all the weapons we need to score at will and score points fast. I don't want a repeat of 2011.
    Posted by kansaspatriot


    Kansas do you not see how this is ironic?

    If we get all the weapons we need to score at will and score fast we will see 2011 all over again as that is what just happened.

    What we really need is to protect our best asset...Tom Brady by using the run game more then we have the past 5 years and holding the football longer on O to protect our suspect defense.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    "Those 2004 Patriots with Deion Branch, David Patten and David Givens were easily the most vertical of the New England offenses under Brady. Go figure that was his best postseason (and last Super Bowl win)."

    Go figure it was also when we had the best run game. hmm.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    Perhaps I should I have elaborated on what I think this article demonstrates.  I think it demonstrates that the argument of deep shots down the field being completely driven by personnel is misguided.  NE has been throwing deep less and less since 2006 even though they had Randy Moss arguably the greatest deep threat of all time in 2007 and 2009.  I think the Pats have chosen to throw deep less regardless of the personnel.

    In any event even if you don't agree with that perspective the 2004 offense demonstrates that you do not need elite personnel to throw the ball deep as I would classify everyone on that squad as solid, but not elite by any means.  This begs the question as to whether there really isn't anyone readily available or already on the roster that can be a solid "deep threat" or whether NE has made a philosophical choice to throw deep less.
     
  17. This post has been removed.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    Perhaps I should I have elaborated on what I think this article demonstrates.  I think it demonstrates that the argument of deep shots down the field being completely driven by personnel is misguided.  NE has been throwing deep less and less since 2006 even though they had Randy Moss arguably the greatest deep threat of all time in 2007 and 2009.  I think the Pats have chosen to throw deep less regardless of the personnel. In any event even if you don't agree with that perspective the 2004 offense demonstrates that you do not need elite personnel to throw the ball deep as I would classify everyone on that squad as solid, but not elite by any means.  This begs the question as to whether there really isn't anyone readily available or already on the roster that can be a solid "deep threat" or whether NE has made a philosophical choice to throw deep less.
    Posted by pcmIV


    To me it was obviously a choice made by BB and co. Send Moss away and build around the middle of the field. 2 great TE's the best slot/flanker(cuz WW cannot be called just a slot any longer) and what I though would be a return to Brady's strong suit the play action pass.

    I really don't think Brady's deep ball will ever be the same since the knee injury.

    If we wanted a deep threat Chad O looked fine with his 18.4 average, but that is not what they wanted. They wanted the high % passing game. Now find a running back that they have faith in to allow an opportunity to tote the rock and lets win another championship.


     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ayisyen. Show Ayisyen's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    This doesn't surprise me, because Brady has never been good at throwing the deep pass.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ayisyen. Show Ayisyen's posts

    Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice

    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice:
    In Response to Re: Maybe the deep ball is missing by choice : To me it was obviously a choice made by BB and co. Send Moss away and build around the middle of the field. 2 great TE's the best slot/flanker(cuz WW cannot be called just a slot any longer) and what I though would be a return to Brady's strong suit the play action pass. I really don't think Brady's deep ball will ever be the same since the knee injury. If we wanted a deep threat Chad O looked fine with his 18.4 average, but that is not what they wanted. They wanted the high % passing game. Now find a running back that they have faith in to allow an opportunity to tote the rock and lets win another championship.
    Posted by TrueChamp

    It's hard to do play action, where there is no running back in the backfield.  



     
  21. This post has been removed.

     
Sections
Shortcuts