NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from USMCM1A1. Show USMCM1A1's posts

    NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    If you don't follow Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-6-dvoa-ratings), you won't be familiar with their ranking system, Defense-adjusted Value Over Avergae (DVOA), but you should be.  It's a statiscal comparison of every down played by a team, matched to the league average for the same down, distance, and score.  DVOA tells you how a team facing 2d and 10 from it's own 30, down 3 points, fares vs. how teams as a whole do.  This is important because getting 1-6 yards here sux, but 7+ is good, and gross stats don't account for this.  DVOA, especially as the season goes on, gives you a really clear picture of the relative strength of teams: you might have two teams that have both wound up 3-2, but are worlds apart in how good they are actually playing.  In terms of DVOA on offense, the Pats are way ahead of the entire NFL, significantly better than the next best teams offensively (Houston and Indy).  Defensively we are pretty horrible (27th in the league), but on ST we are a solid 4th:

    TEAM TOTAL
    DVOA
    LAST
    WEEK
    TOTAL
    DAVE
    RANK W-L OFFENSE
    DVOA
    OFF.
    RANK
    DEFENSE
    DVOA
    DEF.
    RANK
    S.T.
    DVOA
    S.T.
    RANK
    1 PIT 32.6% 4 31.0% 1 4-1 7.7% 14 -21.1% 3 3.8% 8
    2 NYG 30.0% 5 26.5% 3 4-2 11.6% 11 -24.5% 1 -6.1% 30
    3 NE 29.0% 1 27.1% 2 4-1 35.7% 1 14.3% 27 7.6% 4
    4 TEN 27.6% 8 21.6% 5 4-2 2.9% 18 -21.2% 2 3.5% 9
    5 NYJ 23.3% 3 21.0% 6 5-1 16.4% 6 -0.6% 15 6.3% 6
    6 PHI 23.3% 10 21.8% 4 4-2 26.1% 4 -1.1% 14 -4.0% 26
    7 KC 20.2% 2 14.6% 9 3-2 11.6% 10 -3.1% 12 5.4% 7
    8 IND 14.3% 11 15.4% 8 4-2 26.6% 3 6.8% 21 -5.6% 28
    9 NO 13.4% 14 12.7% 11 4-2 14.1% 8 -0.3% 17 -1.1% 17
    10 ATL 13.2% 6 13.9% 10 4-2 9.7% 13 -5.0% 8 -1.5% 19


    DAVE is a significant stat right now because we have a pretty small sample (something like 500 snaps total for the season), and so DAVE includes projections (20% of the data for the Pats on DAVE) are projections.  Anyway, given our strengths and weaknesses, if you look at how our team actually performs based on real situations (accounting for 2 minute drives, for garbage time, starting pinned on your own 5 or with happily on your 42, etc), we are either the 2d or third best team in the league.

    And I think that Defense rating is going to get better all year long...

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from USMCM1A1. Show USMCM1A1's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Blargh.  I can't format this right--the header row is one over to the left and not lining up properly.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Yeah. It kind of matches the latest power rankings that have NE in #3 (ESPN/FOX).

    I think the case to be made, given how well the special teams have played, and how well the defense has played the last two weeks, is that NE could be the most fundamentally balanced team in the NFL. Although the Jests, Gints, & Steelers have balanced units too. 
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    I have New England at 3rd, with the NFL's top six all bunched tightly together.  Small arguments could nudge New England to #1 or to #6. 

    P.S. Fox's ratings are usually a joke, but even a dart board might get it right once in a while.
     
  5. This post has been removed.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Excellent post.  Football Outsiders seem to be the only people that use real, intelligent analysis in their rankings (unlike all the popular websites and the b*ll sh*t report cards on here).

    I'm confused, how can our offense be so good without Charlie Weiss?  I thought our offense went downhill big time after Weiss?  Isn't O'Brien the worst coordinator in the world?
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from ronf. Show ronf's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    This may be a little too optimistic. I say 5th.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from btownteamsrking. Show btownteamsrking's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    I think it is just unclear how good they are. I believe the Patriots will improve tremendously towards december. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Getzo. Show Getzo's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    In Response to Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League:
    This may be a little too optimistic. I say 5th.
    Posted by RonF


    I agree 100%, but I do also feel we will get better defensively throughout the year.  Besides the Steelers getting Big Ben back, I believe the Pats can improve the most than anyother team. 
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    This just in ... Pats still #1 in offensive efficiency.  That O'Brien must be doing a horrible job.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Indylove. Show Indylove's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    In Response to Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League:
    Excellent post.  Football Outsiders seem to be the only people that use real, intelligent analysis in their rankings (unlike all the popular websites and the b*ll sh*t report cards on here). I'm confused, how can our offense be so good without Charlie Weiss?  I thought our offense went downhill big time after Weiss?  Isn't O'Brien the worst coordinator in the world?
    Posted by themightypatriotz

    No No.  The offense is actually great.  Its the playcalling that stinks.
     
  12. This post has been removed.

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from flutie66. Show flutie66's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    In Response to Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League:
    In Response to Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League : and who have the Jests beaten? 
    Posted by Patsfansince1966


    us
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from SShoreLurker. Show SShoreLurker's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    PHATREX is right!  Some of the Yahoos in here love stats when it favors you and when it doesn't you just say its biased.

    The Patriots are playing well right now. But so isn't Tennessee, NY Giants, and Atlanta.  These three teams along with the obvious PITT/NYJ, are clearly pulling away as high end contenders.  But its still October!!  Indy, Philly, Skins, Chiefs, and Saints will all be there come December. 

    There's a long ways to go!!  Rankings are cute but dont mean a thing in January.  They are media fabrications used to generate viewership.  Remember that.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    The only stat that matters is the final score.  If nothing else the Bolts game was a clear demonstration of that.

    That said, the rating system is interesting to me because it does provide a sense of context.  Thanks, USMC, for the time and effort it took to place the table in this thread.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from MarcW1. Show MarcW1's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Hey, I'll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher's asss by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather to take his word for it?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from croc. Show croc's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Unlike the writers polls at ESPN/Fox etc, which is a popularity contest this is actually based on stats...scant though they are.

    Good info, but it's still about wins and losses. Jets fans are probably more upset about the G men than the Pats.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from crono420. Show crono420's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    When we play the colts and steelers minus moss then we will see how good we are.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    In Response to NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League:
    If you don't follow Football Outsiders ( http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-6-dvoa-ratings), you won't be familiar with their ranking system, Defense-adjusted Value Over Avergae (DVOA), but you should be.  It's a statiscal comparison of every down played by a team, matched to the league average for the same down, distance, and score.  DVOA tells you how a team facing 2d and 10 from it's own 30, down 3 points, fares vs. how teams as a whole do.  This is important because getting 1-6 yards here sux, but 7+ is good, and gross stats don't account for this.  DVOA, especially as the season goes on, gives you a really clear picture of the relative strength of teams: you might have two teams that have both wound up 3-2, but are worlds apart in how good they are actually playing.  In terms of DVOA on offense, the Pats are way ahead of the entire NFL, significantly better than the next best teams offensively (Houston and Indy).  Defensively we are pretty horrible (27th in the league), but on ST we are a solid 4th: TEAM TOTAL DVOA LAST WEEK TOTAL DAVE RANK W-L OFFENSE DVOA OFF. RANK DEFENSE DVOA DEF. RANK S.T. DVOA S.T. RANK 1 PIT 32.6% 4 31.0% 1 4-1 7.7% 14 -21.1% 3 3.8% 8 2 NYG 30.0% 5 26.5% 3 4-2 11.6% 11 -24.5% 1 -6.1% 30 3 NE 29.0% 1 27.1% 2 4-1 35.7% 1 14.3% 27 7.6% 4 4 TEN 27.6% 8 21.6% 5 4-2 2.9% 18 -21.2% 2 3.5% 9 5 NYJ 23.3% 3 21.0% 6 5-1 16.4% 6 -0.6% 15 6.3% 6 6 PHI 23.3% 10 21.8% 4 4-2 26.1% 4 -1.1% 14 -4.0% 26 7 KC 20.2% 2 14.6% 9 3-2 11.6% 10 -3.1% 12 5.4% 7 8 IND 14.3% 11 15.4% 8 4-2 26.6% 3 6.8% 21 -5.6% 28 9 NO 13.4% 14 12.7% 11 4-2 14.1% 8 -0.3% 17 -1.1% 17 10 ATL 13.2% 6 13.9% 10 4-2 9.7% 13 -5.0% 8 -1.5% 19 DAVE is a significant stat right now because we have a pretty small sample (something like 500 snaps total for the season), and so DAVE includes projections (20% of the data for the Pats on DAVE) are projections.  Anyway, given our strengths and weaknesses, if you look at how our team actually performs based on real situations (accounting for 2 minute drives, for garbage time, starting pinned on your own 5 or with happily on your 42, etc), we are either the 2d or third best team in the league. And I think that Defense rating is going to get better all year long...
    Posted by USMCM1A1



    thanks for the post. Unfortunately, some folks on here have difficulty backing up their statements up.

    Here is some other info, not quite as sophisticated as the stuff you posted, but interesting anyway.

    "In the opening half, the Patriots had six first downs (three by penalty), went 0 for 6 on third down, and gained 38 yards of total offense. They scored just 13 points despite starting their seven possessions, on average, at midfield.

    New England couldn’t run the ball before the break — BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead picked up 27 yards on nine combined carries — nor could Brady effectively throw it, completing just 6 of 16 passes for 35 yards."

     

     


     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    I'd say fifth. With two caveats. Brady has yet to play his best football and the defense continues to improve. We have won games with defense, offense and special teams (Miami) and its still a good idea to be proficient in all three phases of the game. With some teams they can stop the run and run the ball (KC and the Jets) if you can stop the run and force them out of their gameplan you can win. For example, the Chargers can get an early lead (passing) and force KC to throw the ball more often than theu are comfortable with. Both Sanchez and Cassell are game managing; if they were put in position were they had to win the game by passing the ball and winning by coming from behind, could they do it ?
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from RushThePillPopper. Show RushThePillPopper's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Hanna.......can't say about Cassells but if it were last year with Sanchez, I would say doubtful. This year is a different story though. While still having problems, Sanchez has improved greatly and HAS been able to move the ball late. Remove some of the bad throws he's made in the last few games, and he's a much better game manager than his rookie season though he still has a lot of improving to do
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    In Response to Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League:
    In Response to NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League : thanks for the post. Unfortunately, some folks on here have difficulty backing up their statements up. Here is some other info, not quite as sophisticated as the stuff you posted, but interesting anyway. "In the opening half, the Patriots had six first downs (three by penalty), went 0 for 6 on third down, and gained 38 yards of total offense. They scored just 13 points despite starting their seven possessions, on average, at midfield. New England couldn’t run the ball before the break — BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead picked up 27 yards on nine combined carries — nor could Brady effectively throw it, completing just 6 of 16 passes for 35 yards."    
    Posted by BubbaInHawaii


    All your posts are negative.  You sound like a troll.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    SD had at least 8 players (and sometimes 12) in the box on nearly every running play. And we still won. Any time Brady does not play has A game and we win, it's definitely a good thing.
     
  24. This post has been removed.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from WelkerRules. Show WelkerRules's posts

    Re: NE Patriots are the 2d or 3rd Best Team in the League

    Geez I though Phat Rex found something else to do then get on a Patriots thread and run his mouth.

    Go to your Yets boards Fat and be the sidekick to Ryan.

    Pats over Vikes Sunday. As well as AFC EAST CHAMPS.

    Nobody wins AFC EAST DIVISION TITLES BETTER THEN BRADY.
     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share