Went three of 4 against the spread this week. The Bengals failed me, by 2 points. Here are my picks for next weekends' games:

1.) (11-6) Baltimore Ravens (+9) @ (13-3) Denver Broncos:  The Buzzards did what they had to do in disposing of the Luck led Colts, 24-9. Bernard Pierce and Ray Rice gained 173 yards on 28 carries, in averaging over 5 yards per carry. But, Rice lost two fumbles...something that they can't afford to have happen, in Denver. Anquan Boldin had a big game, with 5 catches for 145 yards...which included a 50 yard reception, and a TD catch. But, they'll need to involve deep threat Torrie Smith and their TEs more, if they want to have a legitimate chance at beating the Broncos. On defense, they managed to get good pressure on Andrew Luck...sacking him three times., and hitting him 7 times more.                    Three weeks ago, the Buzzards were crushed in Baltimore by the Broncos, 34-17, in a game that was not as close as even that lopsided score indicates. Nontheless, the Ravens are a proud veteran team. If Joe Flacco brings his "A" game to the "Mile High City", they could pull the upset. Baltimore must also do a better job at stopping the run than they did against Indy (152 yards gained on 30 carries), and must mess up Peyton Manning's hair. Since Manning doesn't have the mobility of Andrew Luck, they can likely do the former.               The question is, can they get consistent pressure on Manning, that they got on Luck? Given time to throw, the deadly accurate Horseface will pick them apart. That...and the really big "if" regarding Joe Flacco bringing his "A' game, appear to be long shots. Flacco threw a horrible 98 yard pick six from the Broncos' 3 yard line in that previous loss, which proved to be the turning point of that game. The pressure is really on Joe. His performance in Denver will set the parameters regarding the number of zeroes on his new contract: PICK: Broncos;

2.) (12-5) Green Bay Packers (+3) @ (11-4-1) San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are not the team that the Packers were hoping to see in this round. They have the pass rushers necessary to take advantage of the weaknesses on Green Bay's OL. They also have big, physical DBs to beat on the sleek Packer WRs. What would concern me if I were a Packers' fan is the recent difficulty that the Pack had in containing Adrian Peterson, and the Vikings' pass rush. Though Frank Gore is no AP, he's tough, and effective. To win this game, Green Bay must jump out to an early lead. If they're forced to play catch-up, it could get ugly: PICK: 49ers;

3.) (12-5) Seattle Seahawks (+2) @ (13-3) Atlanta Falcons: Tough game to predict, because of the unpredictability of the Atlanta Falcons. For the past couple of years, they've been world beaters in the regular season, and wimps in the play-offs. This is a huge game for Matt Ryan. If he hopes to retain the nick-name of Matty Ice, he must come up big in this one. Yet, as always when the play-offs come around, the Falcons have concerns. They are not running the ball well, as RB Michael Turner looks like he's spent. CB Dunta Robinson (concussion) and their sole pass-rusher, John Abraham (ankle), both went down in the final week of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks appear to be getting stronger, and gathering confidence each week. They have great balance on both sides of the ball, and appear to be the team to beat in the NFC: PICK: Seahawks;

4.) (13-4) Houston Texans (+9.5) @ (12-4) New England Patriots:  It's simple. Stop Arien Foster, and you stop the Houston Texans. Everything the Texans do on offense stems from their great RB. Look for the Texans to try to open up their offense a bit by throwing to their TEs, and to Foster, coming out of the backfield. But, make no mistake. Shutting down the Texans' running game is the key to beating them. On defense, the man to contain remains DE J.J. Watt, the best defender in the game. Watt is good enough that he alone can disrupt an offense.                                                                                                             

     To win this game, the Patriots not be over confident. They must put aside the memories of that glorious 42-14 shellacking they gave the Texans early in December...and remember the 2010 season...when the 14-2, #1 seeded Patriots lost at home to the Jets, 28-21...a team they had crushed and humiliated just several weeks prior, 45-3. Though the Texans have not played as dominantly as they did early in the season, they are coming into Foxborough looking for revenge, respect, and redemption. The Pats must nip that quest in the bud immediately by starting fast, and jumping off to an early lead. Their offensive line must protect Tom Brady. This game will likely be decided by turnovers, and redzone defense. I look for the Patriots to win...but, win by 10 points or more?: PICK: Texans.

     As always, your comments and predictions are welcome...particularly on the Pats' game.       

                                                                                                                               

TexPat agree on all your picks except Baltimore. I expect them to go to Denver and not only cover the spread but be within striking distance of upseting the Broncos (or maybe thats just wishful thinking!)

     Here's what the Texans are thinking, as they make preparations to invade Foxborough: http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/01/texans-looking-forward-to-rematch-with-patriots/ 

This years Falcons team looks a lot mentally tougher than before. The beat down of the Giants was very impressive a week after the Giants put 52 on the board against the Saints. I think the Falcons win. Atlanta is one of the few home field advantages that is on par with Seattle's. if the Seahawks win I think Atlanta may have to think long and hard about a coaching change. Mike Smith may be the new Marty Schottenheimer, a great regular season coach who struggles in the playoffs. 

In response to ccnsd's comment:

     The Falcons have a mediocre OL, and can't rush the passer. When the better teams square off, the games are usually decided in the trenches. That's why I like Seattle to win.

 

I think this is the Falcons time.  They won't blow it this year in the playoffs.  Falcons by 8

Patriots don't play their best coming off a bye week so this one has me a little nervous.  Well, that was until I seen the Texans play terrible against the Bengals.  Patriots 31 Texans 20

49'ers are going to lose against the Packers.  The 49'ers have ran their course for the season.  They haven't looked good since the first half against the Patriots.  Packers by 7.

Broncos are going to steam roll the Ravens late in the game.  It will be close for a while but come the middle of the 3rd qtr those older Ravens players are going to be gassed.  Broncos by 17.

In response to TFB12's comment:

     The Pats have to bring their "A" game over the next two weeks to advance to the SB. I see them doing that, and meeting and beating Seattle, in SB 47. 

 

1.) Broncos win...I'm talking a near blow out since they like to Blitz and blitzing Peyton Manning is a bad idea. Joe Flacco sucks eggs...those loop passes are all he knows how to do and I think Bailey will do well enough against them. Though, I think Bailey will lose a 1-1 against Torrey Smith 9/10 times. 35-14 seems likely, but the Ravens won't stop hitting since it's Ray Lewis' last game. It also wouldn't surprise me if the Ravens win this game since Peyton Manning sucks eggs in the playoffs. I hope it snows...hard! 

2.) San Francisco wins because...

 

A.) San Fran already whippped the Packers at Lambeau. 

B.) San Fran beat the Packers with Alex Smith as their QB, Alex Smith is a joke. 

C.) Packers Defense is terrible, no excuse for struggling with The Vikings when they were no threat to pass. 

D.) Aaron Rogers is a bag of tools. 

 

27-24 49ers...

3.) Seattle beats the living hell out of the Falcons. I'm talking a damn good shalacking. It won't be close, that's how bad they're going to get it IMHO. Seattle is a darn good team with a great RB, good set of WRs/TEs, great OL, fantastic defense and a dynamic QB. 

35-10 Seahawks. 

4.) Pats win. That's it, Patriots win. A healthy Dennard, Talib, Gronk, Spikes and Vollmer. 

24-10, Patriots. 

In response to Quagmire3's comment:

     The Texans seek revenge next weekend:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000122631/article/houston-texans-seek-revenge-vs-new-england-patriots

In response to TexasPat's comment:

Man, I hope so.  If they beat the Bronco's in Denver and then beat the Seahawks in the SB they will have deserved the Championship! 

If this happens, do you think this team will go down as the best Patriots team ever?

Solid analysis based on the spreads Vegas thinks both AFC game will be over early in the forth with both NFC games coming down to the wire.

Food for thought.

Seattle's secondary matches up well with Atlanta's stregnths on offense. Offensively the Hawks want to run the ball early, then use play action and attack the middle of the field. To stop them you have to get penetration "run blitz"...the key is hitting Lynch before he turns upfield and levels his pads.

Green Bay is a one dimentional team with Rodgers the head of the snake, cut off the head and the snakes dies. Can San Franciso get sustained pressure on him? Haven't seen the injury report but last I checked Jusitn Smith was questionable? Sans Justin Smith getting doubled in the middle the other Smith, Alton is less effective coming off the edge. The Packers defesne is much improved with Woodson back in the mix and he'll be the key guy (spy) in helping them contain the run option. This one sets up as a Packers upset if they can, put a couple TD's on the board early, contain the run option and force the niners to throw the ball...

Ravens have all the tools in the box to upset the Broncos just wondering if like the tin man they lack "heart" Flaco in particular. The game plan for the Ravens should be simple enough. Punch Manning in the mouth and run Rice until his legs fall off...executing it is another matter entirely...

The Blue Print for stopping the Broncos isn't much different than the Packers and the Patriots...You gotta disquise the coverages and get sustained pressure on the QB. A defesne the Ravens devised to stop the Patriots, that has been used by team with the right personell packages since 2007 (Giants). Which stop the run, they play press on the outside and get after the QB.

Texans played like a determined Supererbowl team vs the Bengals. Was it the quality of the opponant or was it the Texans simply playing inspired football for the first time in a month? They looked like a different team and out physicaled (if thats a word?). The Bengals and the most telling thing that came from that game was the pressure they were able to generate to knock Dalton on his can more than a half dozen times...See above for the key for Houtons defense...On Offense it's simple...they have to run the ball early and often with success to the right side...if they can't then it limmits what they can do in the passing game in particular the play action...Take away Foster and you al but kill the snake...

All for games should be fun...I like

Ravens, Patriots, Seahawks and Green Bay....

In response to Beantowne's comment:

In response to Quagmire3's comment:

Think the Pats will win, but not by blowout. Id like to see Balt take down Gomer, but am not holding my breath. I go with Seattle and SF also.

In response to TheExaminer's comment:

     The winner of the Patriots/Texans game appears to be the only team capable of stopping Gomer from going to another SB. Can you imagine the media love feast if the Horseface makes it to New Orleans? YUCK! 

     Here's what's being said in the Houston press, about the upcoming Pats' game: http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/01/are-you-betting-on-the-texans/ 

Joe Flacco has an A game?

I'd be interested to see that.

In response to p-mike's comment:

     LOL!!! He did play well against the Patriots in last years' AFC title game.    

 

Well . . .  I suppose you could say -- fairly -- that Flacco did everything he needed to do to get the win, and Lee Evans and the idiot kicker let him down . . .  but people who get their kicks making anonymous snide remarks (me) aren't so very much interested in what's "fair."

; )

     The Houston media is still sifting through the rubble of the Dec. 10th blowout loss to the Patriots...42-14, in Foxborough. They point out five (5) plays that, if they had gone the other way, or never happened, would have turned the game. But, isn't this the case with nearly every game...where a few big plays decide a game?

     Still, it's a pretty good article, which also maps out what the Texans must do, in order to win: http://blog.chron.com/ultimatetexans/2013/01/patriots%e2%80%99-rout-of-texans-turned-on-five-plays/  

I agree with Quag, I think Balt goes into Den and beats them outright. Manning in cold weather, in the playoffs, against good D's tends to wet himself. If manning turns it over twice then Den is done. Everyone thinks Den is going to roll because of Manning haven't looked at Mannings history in the playoffs. Additionally, who has Den really beaten in their 11 games streak? They haven't had to play tough opponents in the last 11 games. It's still 50/50 but given everything together it's going to be a much closer game coming down to 1 possession.

Alt I think finally gets 1 playoff win. Sea is coming off an emotional victory and I think Wilson is due for a let down. Should be a very close game in the end but I think Atl pulls it out

I agree with the 49ers. They are running emotionally high and their D should slow Rodgers enough for the 49ers to get past GB

One I don't agree with is Hou covering. The 1st will determine what happens but Hou's going to come in with a major chip on their shoulders but with the thought of what happened fresh in their heads. If the Pats come out quick and go up by 2 scores I think Hou will crumble and fall apart. That chip will become a ton weight and keep them down. I also expect BB to pull out the 10' Jets games and pile drive those games into the Pats heads. I think the Pats are going to want to come out and bury them early and move on. If Hou keeps it close after the 1st then it will be a game and Hou will at least cover but I see the Pats putting them away quick and Hou killed by shell shock 

In response to PatsEng's comment:

My predictions: Pats 30 Texans 21

Ravens 31 Broncos 30 in a shocker! (I know, i know..there is a snowballs chance in hell of this happeneing!!)

Seahawks 35 Falcolns 13 (more on this below)

49ers 24 Packers 23 (this one could go either way)

So about Seattle, I live out here and obviuosly grow sick of all of the Seahwaks talk and the word on the street is that they are going to win it all. As reluctant as I am to give them credit I must admit that this team is growing into a heavy weight title contender. I know football people (my friend that gambles alot) that swear that this would be the worst possible match up for the Pats as they bring a heavy hard hitting D. Part of me wants the Falcolns to squeak by and face off with the Pats. Is this what we should be hoping for!!?? Sadly, I see more of the same from Atlanta on Sunday. Do not expect the Seahawks to fall behind in this one.

 

     Tom Brady and the Patriots understand that the Dec. 10th 42-14 win over the Texans will have little to do with the outcome of the rematch: http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/8820462/2013-nfl-playoffs-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-expects-different-game-vs-houston-texans

TP - you are right Den went into Balt and beat them up but I'd contend in that game Balt didn't have a lot to play for, had a lot of people coming back/off becaues of injury, and the weather conditions weren't nearly as bad as expected this weekend (22 and snow). Unlike Hou, Balt can take a hit then swing back. I expect them to come out swinging and make Manning uncomfortable in conditions he already doesn't like. Plus, we know that regular season Manning and post-season Manning are two completely different players. Should be interesting to say the least

In response to PatsEng's comment: