NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

    First off, buzzards are raptors.  Atlanta has buzzards.  Seattle has buzzards.  Baltimore has corn-eaters.

    Seattle got a quarterback-free opponent as an Epiphany present (traditionally, the 12th day of Christmas, also the day the three wise men dished out their gifties).  Nevertheless, my system only counts points, so officially Seattle edges its way ahead of New England on the strength of their great performance against a wounded duck.  They already were the #2 team before the latest win. 

    Here are my ratings:

    1          sea            13.7            (last wk. 2)

    2          ne            13.2            (last wk. 1)

    3          sf            12.3            (last wk. 4)

    4          den            12.1            (last wk. 3)

    5          gb            11.7            (last wk. 5)

    6          atl            10.7            (last wk. 6)

    . . .

    11        bal            9.2            (last wk. 14)

    13        hou            9.0            (last wk. 15)

     

    My point spreads:

    Visitor / Home / My Points / The Gambling Public's Opinion / Difference

    bal   den   13.8   9.0   4.8

    gb   sf   14.4   3.0   11.4

    sea   atl   7.3   2.0   5.3

    hou   ne   13.1   9.5   3.6

    Home team, home team, home team, home team.  Bye weeks are as much killers in the postseason as they are in the regular season.  Players get healthy, and then they practice, practice, practice.  In the last 20 years the #1 or the #2 teams have advanced to a Super Bowl berth over 70% of the time.  I know of no better (otherwise neglected) predictor of victory than the bye week.  My point-spread numbers reflect this inequality.  Life isn't very fair to teams without bye weeks, and that includes Seattle.

    The big shocker is San Francisco to crush Green Bay.  SF and GB are the #1 and #3 home cooking kings in the NFL, great at home but puppies on the road.  Baltimore is #2.  Seattle is #4.  Atlanta is #6.  The other three teams don't spray any magic voodoo powder into the visitor's locker room.  New England is only #20, Denver is #22 and Houston is #24.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

         I see the 49ers beating the Pack too, Paul.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

    In response to NY-PATS-FAN4's comment:
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    In response to jjmsphd43's comment:
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    In response to TexasPat's comment:
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    In response to jjmsphd43's comment:
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    My picks:

    Texans 33 - Patriots 28: much like the 49ers game Patriots stumble early and cannot fully recover enough to comeback and win it

    Broncos 24 - Ravens 20: Manning does not play well, but Flacco throws at least one pick six and Denver's defense wins the game

    49ers 17 - Packers 16: Packers have to settle for too many FGs in an ugly game

    Falcons 24 - Seahawks 20: Seattle's luck runs out. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez both have 100+ yard games.

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         If the Patriots don't bring their "A" game, they can be beat.

     

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    Unfortunately for Patriots fans, that is what I see happening. I think it will be a lot like the SF game. I think regardless of how they try to prepare the Patriots will come out slow thinking all they have to do is show up. The Pats did that against the 49ers after they beat up the Texans. They did it against Jacksonvile but that team is so untalented the Patriots were able to over come it.  They actually did not start out that great against the Dolphins (ran out of steam on the first drive and turned it over on downs and followed that with a 6 play 19 yard drive), but again the Dolphins were not a good enough team to take advantage of it.

    The Houston game was the last time the Patriots started a game well. 

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    jj, just curious, please provide us a synopsis of the strengths and weaknesses of the Texans' O-Line and linebacking corps.

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         The Texans have a strong OL. But, their LB corps is vunerable. Losing Brian Cushing for the season has really hurt. Brady James is tough and makes some big hits, but he's lost a step. Tim Dobbins is on IR. In other words, if Gronk is healthy, the Texans likely will have to use man coverage on the Pats' WRs, and use their FS to help out on the Pats' TE dynamic duo.  BUT...they tried that last time...and Lloyd, Welker, and the injured Donte' Stallworth burnt them badly. So...my guess is that they'll try exotic blitzes to get to Brady, and play their FS deep. The return of LB Brooks Reid will help. Look for Houston to dare the Pats to run. 

         If I were game planning for the Texans, I'd look at film of that putrid Arizona Cardinal game, and see what the Cards did to block a punt. Houston will need a big special teams play, or a huge defensive play, to win.        

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from dwhite1220. Show dwhite1220's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

     

        

     

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       I think you're right. The Texans are going to have to loosen up the Pats "D" a bit by passing. While Andre Johnson is a great receiver, he's all the Texans have. Look for Schaub to throw a lot to his TEs, and to Foster, coming out of the backfield.  

     

    [/QUOTE]Agree- If I was the Texans OC I would dink & dunk,throw medium range passes all day. Our LB corp can't cover!! Plain & Simple.


     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TexasPat. Show TexasPat's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

    In response to dwhite1220's comment:
    [QUOTE]

     

        

     

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       I think you're right. The Texans are going to have to loosen up the Pats "D" a bit by passing. While Andre Johnson is a great receiver, he's all the Texans have. Look for Schaub to throw a lot to his TEs, and to Foster, coming out of the backfield.  

     

    [/QUOTE]Agree- If I was the Texans OC I would dink & dunk,throw medium range passes all day. Our LB corp can't cover!! Plain & Simple.

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         Job one is stopping the running game with Foster. But, the Pats will also have to deal with Foster as a receiver, and the Texan TEs on mid-short range passes.

     

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions

    The NFC side is tough to get a handle on and for me, the hardest game to predict is GB/SF.  Toss up.  SF not playing their best, but at home I think their defense will play well.  GB, despite having all the weapons on offense and the best QB, is not playing lights out football on that side of the ball. They don't seem to be hitting on all cylinders for whatever reason. I don't think they find their mojo against SF's defense that will be rested and primed. And I think SF will lean on the ground game and wear out the GB defense. SF 28-21.

    I'm not picking Atlanta until they prove it in the playoffs. Seattle will pound the rock and as with SF, I see them wearing out the Atlanta front seven over the course of the game.  Seattle's secondary will be a match for Atlanta's big receivers, and their pass rush, even without Clemons, will get after Ryan.  If Atlanta gets down, I can see it being a long day for them and could get ugly.  But I think it will be relatively close.  Seattle 31-20.


    Baltimore in the thin air, worn out after an emotional week, old, tired, hurt. Not a good formula. I can't see this one being very competitive.  Denver 34-17.


    I see Houston playing a lot better than they did last time they were in Foxboro, just well enough to keep it interesting. But Pats offense too much, Schaub not enough, defense chips in with a pick-6. Pats 41-27.

     
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