NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

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    NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

         At last...real football!! Doesn't the start of this season eerily feel like the start of the 2003 season? Remember when, just before the opening game against the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo, the Pats released popular SS Lawyer Milloy. Thereafter, the kicked to the curb Milloy, was pick up by the Bills...and helped lead them to a 31-0 pasting of our boys. 

         Now, in 2009, Richard Seymour has been sent packing in a blockbuster trade with the Raiders, on the eve of the season. The opponent once again...the Buffalo Bills. It will be interesting to see how the distraction, and loss of Seymour, impacts the Pats.    

         Which brings us to my selection for the Game of the Week: 

    1.) Buffalo Bills (+11) @ New England Patriots: Yeah, I know...I'm showing a bit of bias by picking this as the weeks' top game. But, this game is intriguing for several reasons, besides the above mentioned Seymour situation. How will Tom Brady react to being under fire for his first NFL game in a year? Will the Pats' secondary continue to play as pathetically as they played during the preseason? Will T.O. put on a show? No! It will be Tom Brady who will put on a show:
    PICK: PATRIOTS;

    2.) Tennessee Titans (+6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I can't see the Titans being a better club than they were last year without Albert Haynesworth, and with QB Kerry Collins yet another year older. The only questions regarding the Goths is whether their OL can adequately protect Ben Roethlisburger, and whether they can establish the run. In any event, the Steelers are better offensively and defensively than the Titans. After a close game early, they'll win win going away:
    PICK: STEELERS;

    3.) Miami Dolphins (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: Many prognosticators really like the Falcons. Offensively, they have weapons galore. QB Matt Ryan has WR Roddy White, RB Michael Turner, and veteran TE Tony Gonzalez. But...what do the Falcons have on defense? Meanwhile, Miami can run the football. Look for them to try to establish the run, to keep Ryan and company off the field. On defense, Joey Porter and Jason Taylor are back as a tag-team. It will be interesting to see if Taylor has anything left, and if Porter can come close to duplicating his great year in 2009: 
    PICK: FALCONS;

    4.) Kansas City Chiefs (+13) @ Baltimore Ravens: Though I'm not sold on the 2009 Ravens, the Chiefs will be Cassel-less. The Chiefs' defense will be improved. But their offense?? 
    PICK: RAVENS;

    5.) Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5): I can't get over how much dough the Panthers forked over to retain 34 year old QB, Jake DelHomme. Nothing is expected from the Falcons. But, anything short of a SB will be a disappointment in Philly. Desean Jackson has developed into one of the most dangerous players in the game. Panthers want to erase their memories of their awful playoff loss to Arizona: 
    PICK: EAGLES;

    6.) Denver Broncos (+4.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Don't know whether Bengals' QB Carson Palmer, or Denver RB Knowshown Moreno, are healthy. But, I do know that Denver QB, Kyle Orton, is out with a finger injury: 
    PICK: BENGALS;

    7.) Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns (+4): Tough opener for Mangina's Browns. Too much Adrian Peterson: 
    PICK: VIKINGS;

    8.) NY Jets (+4.5) @ Houston Texans: Do you believe that some "experts" are actually picking the Texans to win the AFC South? Having seen Matt Schaub play during the infrequent times that he's been healthy, I must say that I'm not impressed. Sage Rosenfelds was as good or better than Schaub. Rookie Mark Sanchez has shown potential: 
    PICK: JETS;

    9.) Jacksonville Jaguars (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts: Not the marquee match-up this once was...as both teams are on a bit of a decline. The presence of rookie RB Donald Brown will make the Colts a much better running/screen team. Maurice Jones-Drew is not healthy...what other offensive weapons do the Jags have?
    PICK: COLTS;

    10.) Detroit Lions (+13) @ New Orleans Saints: Matt Stafford adds to the list of wasted high #1, Lions' picks. Drew Brees may throw for 500 yards in this one:
    PICK: SAINTS;

    11.) Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers (+6): I don't have much faith in Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys. Jerry Jones' meddling has devoided this team of the leadership that all the great teams seem to have:
    PICK: Bucaneers;

    12.) San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) @ Arizona Cardinals: 
    The Crabtree fiasco really hurts the 49ers. Its' really too bad...because the 49ers were on the rise at the close of last season. Too much Larry Fitzgerald:
    PICK: CARDINALS;

    13.) Washington Redskins (+6.5) @ NY Giants: Look for teams to stack the line of scrimmage...and force Eli Manning to beat them. How soon the Giants young WRs develop could tell the tale of their season:
    PICK: GIANTS;

    14.) St. Louis Rams (+8.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: The 'Hawks should score more points in 2009, with a healthy Matt Hasselback at the helm. The Rams need WRs, and a new QB:
    PICK: SEAHAWKS;

    15.) Chicago Bears (+3.5) @ Green Bay Packers: If the Packers are anywhere near as good as they looked in the preseason, they'll be the team to beat in the NFC North. This should be a fun game to watch.
    PICK: BEARS;

    16.) San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+9.5): Richard Seymour will be in a Raiders' uniform in time for this one. But, will it matter? Unless the Raiders can establish a passing game, the Black Hole will grow larger, as the season progresses.
    PICK: CHARGERS.  

         BEST BET: Saints

         Thoughts?
          
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    I agree with the Buffalo prediction. Tom's first game back will have the entire league watching for any "decline" or hesitation when he's in the pocket. Tom knows this, and will want to show them all he's still the man. With Moss and Welker he should be able to exploit the Bills' mediocre defense. Owens is a great WR (at least as far as on the field), but they have a bunch of rookies and second year guys on the O-line. Edwards won't be able to get the ball to Owens if he's on his back most of the game. I smell a blowout in Foxboro on Monday!

    Tonight's game: If I were going by the point spread I'd take the Titans all day long. I actually think they have a great shot at winning outright. While they may have lost Haynesworth, VandenBosch is back healthy. I still don't like the Steelers O-line, and it's only a matter of time before it takes it's toll on Ben. Tennessee's defense matches up well with Pittsburgh. So though I think Tomlin will do a much better job than Cowher did at having them ready to defend their title, the Titans will be a tough hurdle. If the Steelers are to win this one they will have to have Ben come through again on a game winning drive in the closing minute. But he's proven that he can do that pretty well, at least in 08. I'm going to take the Titans, but it will surely be a great game.

    I'm on the edge about the Falcons and Dolphins. Can Matt Ryan escape the "sophomore slump"? I don't think the Fins are as good as they seemed last season. The game being in Atlanta I sort of lean towards the Falcons. If Ryan doesn't digress in his second season they will be a force in the NFC. Adding Gonzo really helps them out, too.


    Chiefs and Ravens? Though I heard last night Cassel is 50/50 on playing Sunday, this is a no brainer. I'll take Baltimore.


    The Panthers and Eagles will be an interesting game (of course, after an entire offseason even the Lions and Raiders might be mildly amusing). I was also puzzled by Jake's fat contract...especially after the Cardinals game. And that's not the first time he's blown an important game with turnovers. I'm going with the Eagles, though. With the threat of the dog killer behind him, McNabb is going to come out hot. Carolina did too well last year to be elite in 09, IMO. In any case, I'm picking the Eagles to win the NFC East, and I believe they can handle the Panthers.


    The Bungles are hard to read. If Palmer is healthy, they will have a decent offense, despite losing TJ. It's their defense that is a huge question mark. But Orton didn't impress me in the preseason. With healthy RBs they should have a good ground game. But their defense was awful, and though they aquired some new guys, it will take a bit to gel. I'll do with Cincinatti, too.


    Though I'm not sold on Favre, he will at least start out well. Cleveland is a mess. Quinn may become a good QB, but he's inexperienced. The Vikings defense will have a field day. So will AP if Favre will hand him the ball instead of trying to sling it downfield. I'd say the Vikings walk away with this one.


    I kind of like the Texans against the Jests. Though they do not have a QB they can depend on, their defense is quite good. It will be Sanchez's first NFL game and with a hostile crowd. Also they don't have Rosenfels to hand the game to the opposition in the 4th quarter!



    Well, time has caught up to me. I have to go jump in the shower and get ready for work. I'll address the other eight games this afternoon around 4. I can't believe the season is finally here!!! Y'all have a good day!

     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    TP3:
    My only disagreement is re: Bucs-Cowboys game. As flighty as Romo may be, he is still better than either one of Tampa's QB's (until and if, Josh Freeman picks up the NFL game quickly), after an extensive "tuneup" the team's "Cadillac" still has the jury out, plus Antonio Bryant is still hurt - leaving TB without an ace receiver. Flighty Romo has more than enough receivers. Thus, sadly, I'll have to pick Dallas on this one.
     
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    In Response to Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]I agree with the Buffalo prediction. Tom's first game back will have the entire league watching for any "decline" or hesitation when he's in the pocket. Tom knows this, and will want to show them all he's still the man. With Moss and Welker he should be able to exploit the Bills' mediocre defense. Owens is a great WR (at least as far as on the field), but they have a bunch of rookies and second year guys on the O-line. Edwards won't be able to get the ball to Owens if he's on his back most of the game. I smell a blowout in Foxboro on Monday!

    RESPONSE: I don't see the Bills being able to mount the type of pass-rush necessary to bother Brady. Plus, their offense, even with the addition of TO, doesn't scare me (because Trent Edwards is their QB). Whether the game becomes a blowout will depend on the play of the Pats' young, untested seconday...which looked terrible in the preseason. 

    Tonight's game: If I were going by the point spread I'd take the Titans all day long. I actually think they have a great shot at winning outright. While they may have lost Haynesworth, VandenBosch is back healthy. I still don't like the Steelers O-line, and it's only a matter of time before it takes it's toll on Ben. Tennessee's defense matches up well with Pittsburgh. So though I think Tomlin will do a much better job than Cowher did at having them ready to defend their title, the Titans will be a tough hurdle. If the Steelers are to win this one they will have to have Ben come through again on a game winning drive in the closing minute. But he's proven that he can do that pretty well, at least in 08. I'm going to take the Titans, but it will surely be a great game.

    RESPONSE: The Titans can't play from behind if they hope to win tonight. No way veteran QB Kerry Collins duplicates what he did last year. I'm torn who to root for in this one. Though I'm inclined to root against the Steelers, I'm reminded that the Patriots own Tennessee's 2nd round pick next year. So, the worse the Titans do in 2009, the better for the Pats.

    I'm on the edge about the Falcons and Dolphins. Can Matt Ryan escape the "sophomore slump"? I don't think the Fins are as good as they seemed last season. The game being in Atlanta I sort of lean towards the Falcons. If Ryan doesn't digress in his second season they will be a force in the NFC. Adding Gonzo really helps them out, too.

    RESPONSE: This was a tough game for me to pick a winner. My gut tells me to go with Miami. But, like the Titans, Miami is a team that will not play well ffrom behind...and they're going to have to score at least 21 points to beat Atlanta.

    Chiefs and Ravens? Though I heard last night Cassel is 50/50 on playing Sunday, this is a no brainer. I'll take Baltimore.

    RESPONSE: Matt doesn't have the receivers to work with that he had in NE. The Chiefs need a huge game from RB Larry to have any chance.

    The Panthers and Eagles will be an interesting game (of course, after an entire offseason even the Lions and Raiders might be mildly amusing). I was also puzzled by Jake's fat contract...especially after the Cardinals game. And that's not the first time he's blown an important game with turnovers. I'm going with the Eagles, though. With the threat of the dog killer behind him, McNabb is going to come out hot. Carolina did too well last year to be elite in 09, IMO. In any case, I'm picking the Eagles to win the NFC East, and I believe they can handle the Panthers.

    RESPONSE: Eagles' WR Desean Jackson is a major league homerun threat. The Panthers must establish the run to have a chance. 

    The Bungles are hard to read. If Palmer is healthy, they will have a decent offense, despite losing TJ. It's their defense that is a huge question mark. But Orton didn't impress me in the preseason. With healthy RBs they should have a good ground game. But their defense was awful, and though they aquired some new guys, it will take a bit to gel. I'll do with Cincinatti, too.

    RESPONSE: I see Denver's defense as much improved. But, if Orton doesn't go, who will be their QB? Former USC LBs Maualuga and Rivers should add speed and toughness to the Bengals' defense.

    Though I'm not sold on Favre, he will at least start out well. Cleveland is a mess. Quinn may become a good QB, but he's inexperienced. The Vikings defense will have a field day. So will AP if Favre will hand him the ball instead of trying to sling it downfield. I'd say the Vikings walk away with this one.

    RESPONSE: I can't see the Browns being able to handle Adrian Peterson. That should make things easy for Farve...who exacts revenge on Eric Mangini.

    I kind of like the Texans against the Jests. Though they do not have a QB they can depend on, their defense is quite good. It will be Sanchez's first NFL game and with a hostile crowd. Also they don't have Rosenfels to hand the game to the opposition in the 4th quarter!

    RESPONSE: The Titans seem to be snakebit with injuries every year. The injury bug has bitten their #1 draft choice, LB Brian Cushing. Though I  suspect Cushing to be a bit overated and roids aided, its' still a blow to their defense. Matt Schaub is too inconsistent and injury prone for me to be sold on the Texans. 

    Well, time has caught up to me. I have to go jump in the shower and get ready for work. I'll address the other eight games this afternoon around 4. I can't believe the season is finally here!!! Y'all have a good day!
    Posted by bubthegrub2[/QUOTE]

         Every team in the NFL knows that Tom Brady is the key to Pats. The Patriots must be ready to handle a variety of blitz packages from every angle...by every team they play.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    Tex I hate the Cowboys, but Tampa has no QB and they lost way too much on Defense. Plus they fired their O-Cordinator 1 week ago, that spells Panic.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    four differences with TexasPat:

    1)  Oilers over Jets
    2)  Cowboys over Bucs
    3)  Panthers over Philly
    4)  Packers over Bears

     
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         I can see the Packers beating the Bears. But, The Oilers are beating nobody. Theres' no such team anymore. The Houston Oilers moved to Tennessee, and became the Titans, over 10 years ago. Houston was thereafter awarded an expansion franchise...which was named the Texans.

         I can also see the Texans beating the Jets. I'm just not sold on Texan QB, Matt Schaub.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    Well, I guess it's time to choose my final eight. Here goes:

    Jags/Colts. Jacksonville usually gives Indy a rough go, no matter what the final standings turn out to be. I guess what is really key here is whose O-line struggles. The Jags fell way off last season, and that was due to all the injuries on the line, IMO. But I still don't see Garrard as a franchise type QB. Since both teams should be relatively healthy, I have to take the Colts. They are simply a better team top to bottom, despite all the coaching changes.


    Saints/Lions. The Saints have had a lot of issues on defense. But the Lions have had more. With Drew Brees under center I don't see how the Lions can hope to win this one. Unless rookie QB Stafford can throw for 600 yards and 6 TDs, my money would be on NO.


    Boys/Bucks. Tampa is in real trouble. They no longer have the defense that kept them in games a few years ago. They don't even have a legitimate QB. Romo may bite the big one in December, but he's usually hot up until Thanksgiving. They'll miss TO, but I don't think the Bucs are much of a challenge to them in September.


    49ers/Cardinals. Who is playing QB in SF? That is what Singletary needs to address. Though the 49ers aren't bad defensively, the Cardinals are still a top ten offense. They should win easily.


    Redskins/Giants. This is going to be a tough division (again). But they haven't replaced Plax with anyone but unproven guys. Eli is not as good as his brother, though he may not seem to choke as much in the big games. The Skins have upgraded their defense, and I think Haynesworth will cause trouble for Manning while he's searching for a receiver. The only way the giants can win this is to get a lead, then run the ball effectively and eat up the clock. I'll go with Washington.


    Rams/Seahawks. That's a big spread, and may even this one out if you're betting on the game. But I think the Seahawks will win by at least a TD. Hasselbeck is good when healthy, and the Rams have a long way to go before they can hope to go 8-8 or better.


    Bears/Packers. GB all the way. I'm not buying into all the Cutler hype. Sure, he has impressive numbers, except for the most important category...WINS! Aaron Rodgers "took his lumps" last season. He still did pretty well. They had a ton of injuries on defense. GB is the youngest team in the league, and they have a lot of talent. I'm predicting that while all the "experts" are hanging onto Cutler and Favre's jocks and claiming they are the "missing piece", Rodgers will lead the Packers all the way to SB44 (where, of course, they will lose to the Patriots). IMO they are the team to watch in the NFC. Barring injuries like they had last year I think they'll get a playoff bye. Both Favre and Cutler will tank as the year closes, and the Packers will walk away with the division.


    Chargers/Raiders. As much as I hate the pansies and crybabies (not to mention 'roid heads and women beaters) in SD, I don't see them having any competition in their division. I doubt even Norv could keep them from winning 10 or 11 games!

     
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         Quite a heavyweight fight between the Titans and Steelers tonight. After watching this game, one has to wonder whether the Patriots are physical enough to compete with these teams. That said, here are my observations regarding these two heavyweights:

         1.) Steelers are no longer the smashmouth, run it down your throat offensive juggernaut. They have neither the line, or the RBs for that type of offense. What they seem most effective doing is dinking and dunking to their TEs and RBs...and going to Santonio Holmes on various intermediate range passes. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the top five QBs in the NFL. 

         On defense, LaMarr Woodley appears to be their most dominant OLB. Only 24 years old, the 6'2", 265 pound OLB is a beast. Troy Polamalu is their Bob Sanders. Polamalu appeared to suffer a serious knee tonight...and any extended loss would be devastating to the Steelers. 

         2.) Tennessee Titans: Even though they lost tonight, they acquitted themselves well. On offense, Kerry Collins did a fine job of managing the game. But, the strengths of the Titan offense is their OL, TEs, and rushing attack. This is a team that will not play well when behind. But for an uncharacteristic poor game from placekicker Rob Bironas, the Titans might have won tonight. 

         On defense, the Titans appear to have a quantity of good interior defensive lineman...so the Albert Haynesworth loss might not be as detrimental as initially feared. Even though Tennessee has a good secondary, the decision to rush just 3 or 4 men against Roethlisberger hurt them.   


         3.) What does this mean for the Patriots? Neither the Steelers or Titans are great teams...but are good, very physical teams. Both are beatable...but are the Pats physical enough to get it done in 2009? BBs choice of TEs seems to indicate that the Pats will try to run the ball more in 2009...thereby keeping their suspect defense off the field. 

         The Titans rushing just three against Big Ben reminds me of the decision by the Patriots to rush just three men against Bret Farve in OT last year, on a 3rd and long from inside the Jets' 20 yard line. Of course, Farve had all day to throw...and completed the key 3rd down pass. In retrospect, that play may have cost the Patriots the AFC East title...and a legitimate shot at the SB.

         I bring this up because I noticed a thread calling for the firing of Pats' defensive coordinator Dean Pees. If we see more of those types of ultra conservative defensive schemes in 2009...I too may join in calling for Pees to be sacked. 

        
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]       On defense, LaMarr Woodley appears to be their most dominant OLB. Only 24 years old, the 6'2", 265 pound OLB is a beast.

    STOP REMINDING ME, he could of been a Patriot.

         The Titans rushing just three against Big Ben reminds me of the decision by the Patriots to rush just three men against Bret Farve in OT last year, on a 3rd and long from inside the Jets' 20 yard line. Of course, Farve had all day to throw...and completed the key 3rd down pass. In retrospect, that play may have cost the Patriots the AFC East title...and a legitimate shot at the SB.      I bring this up because I noticed a thread calling for the firing of Pats' defensive coordinator Dean Pees. If we see more of those types of ultra conservative defensive schemes in 2009...I too may join in calling for Pees to be sacked.      
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    It did cost the Patriots the AFC East, on Troy Brown night no less.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    Falcons over Dolphins --Sorry Joey-big mouth-Porter you're not going to win this game  and you are not better than the Patriots
    Ravens over Chiefs--Coach Haley if you care at all about your 63m$ qb let him heal another week.
    Texans over Jets--Look out Sanchez, Super Mario' coming to getcha.
    Broncos over Bungals--McDaniels may just be able to string together three straight wins.
    Colts over Jags--hate this pick
    Vikings over Browns--,but I'd love to see Quinn outplay Farve (even tho I hate the Rat)
    Eagles over Panthers--The Panther defense stinks! Hey,Meeks you're not in Indianapolia any more,don't expect Peppers to whirl a gig to the qb. It's smashmouth football i'm talking about! Growl!!
    Saints over Lions--Why do so many think Brees is better than Brady!, It's fantasy I say.
    Cardinals over 49ers--Do Cardinals really live in AZ?
    Giants over Redskins--I just can't figure out the Rdskins.
    Seahawks over Rams--For some reason I like Jim Mora. Good luck this season Jim.
    Pats over Bills--I feel sorry for Buffalo fans, I mean it's bad enough living in Buffalo, but your team really stinks and now you have to deal with TO.
    Chargers over Raiders--unless Big Sey blows in by Monday nite and saves the day.

    and the game of the week---

    Packers over Bears--Hope to see Cutler on his a** a lot. But this should be a high scoring game with these two gun slingers.

     
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    OOps how could I forget them Cowboys over the Bucs-- Would the Boys dare to lose this game??
     
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    Well maybe I should modify my Chargers over the Raiders---NAWW

    Chargers over Raiders--unless Big Sey blows in by Monday nite and saves the day.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    For the 1:00 games I'll take Atlanta at -4 ,Phily at -2 1/2 and Houston at -4
     
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    In Response to Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]...The Panthers and Eagles will be an interesting game (of course, after an entire offseason even the Lions and Raiders might be mildly amusing). I was also puzzled by Jake's fat contract...especially after the Cardinals game. And that's not the first time he's blown an important game with turnovers. I'm going with the Eagles, though. With the threat of the dog killer behind him, McNabb is going to come out hot. Carolina did too well last year to be elite in 09, IMO. In any case, I'm picking the Eagles to win the NFC East, and I believe they can handle the Panthers. 
    Posted by bubthegrub2[/QUOTE]

         Bub and All:

         Apparently Jake DelHomme is at it again...with two picks and a fumble, in the just the first half!! Is "DelHomme" a French word for turnover?? LOL!!: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/09/13/apparently-delhomme-is-french-for-turnover/
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    4:00 picks I'll take  Arizona at - 5 1/2,Seatlle at -7 1/2 and NYG at -7
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    In Response to Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week :      Bub and All:      Apparently Jake DelHomme is at it again...with two picks and a fumble, in the just the first half!! Is "DelHomme" French for turnover?? LOL!!: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2009/09/13/apparently-delhomme-is-french-for-turnover/
    Posted by TexasPat3[/QUOTE]

    Perhaps he should be called Jake Del Homee chiffre d'affaires.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    I can not believe the Jets are that good!! I should have known!!  Messing up my picks.
     
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    Re: NFL Week One Picks and Game of the Week

    i got GB at -4 1/2

     
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