Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft
posted at 4/28/2013 2:48 PM EDT
Love the Draftmetrics analyses and one of the better articles I have found on their site is the 'The Real Seven Rounds of the NFL Draft. Using analysis of 20 tears of drafting they posit the following breaks for thinking about rounds in the draft and the expectations for players drafted by round. Each year the variation in talent pool probably shifts the round breaks by one or two, up or down, but over time these are where the breaks occur in the performance of the players drafted.
The numbers below are draft picks, % playing 3+ years, and % starting 3+ years, % making 1 pro bowl, and % making 3 probowls. They have addition metrics in their table but ...
Round 1 - #1-13 / 90% / 74% / 44% / 21%
Round 2 - #14-40 / 84% / 61% / 19% / 9%
Round 3 - #41-66 / 78% / 44% / 13% / 4%
Round 4 - #67-86 / 75% / 30% / 6% / 3%
Round 5 - #87-149 / 61% / 19% / 4% / 1%
Round 6 - #150-189 / 47% / 12% / 3% / 1%
Round 7 - #190 + / 39% / 8% / 2% / 1%
So ... the trade we made was a '2nd rouner' for 1 each 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th. The cummulative chance of the #29 pick we gave up vs the 4 picks we got are:
3 year on roster - 84% vs 253%
3 year starter - 61% vs 101%
at least one pro bowl - 19% vs. 25%
at least three pro bowls - 9% vs. 9 %
So everything being equal - BB increased his chance of finding a starter and a good starter by a significant amount by making the trade. And the chance of finding a really good player was equal.
The other point to take away is the chance finding a 3 year starter from late 2nd/ very early third round picks (using standard round definitions) - 44% so more than 50% of those chosen are scrubs, by the third round the scub percentage has risen to 70% and by the #91 pick everyone is jumping off a cliff over - only 1 in 5 draft picks are going to make it. Personally I am not jumping anywhere for a 20% chance.
Wed for their draft articles: http://www.draftmetrics.com/draft.asp?f=2
and for the 7 round article http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/THE%20REAL%20SEVEN%20ROUNDS%20OF%20THE%20NFL%20DRAFT.pdf