Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

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    Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    For those numbers people...

    http://web.cs.wpi.edu/~cew/papers/nfldraft13.pdf

     

     
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    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to anonymis' comment:

    For those numbers people...

    http://web.cs.wpi.edu/~cew/papers/nfldraft13.pdf

     




    Cool, I scanned this, sure any decent NFL team get more into than this. Considering the money involved I would hope so. Not sure they decoupled player development and coaching enough from player value.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsbandwagonsince76. Show patsbandwagonsince76's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    Brought this up again to note one thing about the conclusions of this link posted by anonymis.

    For everyone who thinks the PAts draft poorly..they are ranked 1 or 2 in most categories and overall have had the second best draft value based on position from 2000-2102 of all teams!

    Whos ranking list is more accurate BB or the collective ranking list in the media?

    Apparently there are a lot of busts across the board, they are memorable for sure, but despite that the Patriots have fewer than almost all teams.

    The question is when BB's top guy is a 3rd roundr on his list and a UDFA on the collective knowlege list...does he makes sure to get him still in the 3rd round or take a small chance and push him off to the 7th round?

     
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    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to patsbandwagonsince76's comment:

    Whos ranking list is more accurate BB or the collective ranking list in the media?

    The funny part is that early in BB's tenure the "experts" were dogging all his picks, now as you watch the draft in real time you can see Kiper and the rest biting their lip as the Pats make their picks.  

    They've been made to look the fool once too often, now they usually give BB a B grade just so they don't look even dumber in hindsight.

     
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    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    Love the Draftmetrics analyses and one of the better articles I have found on their site is the 'The Real Seven Rounds of the NFL Draft. Using analysis of 20 tears of drafting they posit the following breaks for thinking about rounds in the draft and the expectations for players drafted by round. Each year the variation in talent pool probably shifts the round breaks by one or two, up or down, but over time these are where the breaks occur in the performance of the players drafted. 

    The numbers below are draft picks, % playing 3+ years, and % starting 3+ years, % making 1 pro bowl, and % making 3 probowls. They have addition metrics in their table but ...

    Round 1 - #1-13 / 90% / 74% / 44% / 21%

    Round 2 - #14-40 / 84% / 61% / 19% / 9%

    Round 3 - #41-66 / 78% / 44% / 13% / 4%

    Round 4 - #67-86 / 75% / 30% / 6% / 3%

    Round 5 - #87-149 / 61% / 19% / 4% / 1%

    Round 6 - #150-189 / 47% / 12% / 3% / 1%

    Round 7 - #190 + / 39% / 8% / 2% / 1%

    So ... the trade we made was a '2nd rouner' for 1 each 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th. The cummulative chance of the #29 pick we gave up vs the 4 picks we got are:

    3 year on roster - 84% vs 253%

    3 year starter - 61% vs 101%

    at least one pro bowl - 19% vs. 25%

    at least three pro bowls - 9% vs. 9 %

    So everything being equal - BB increased his chance of finding a starter and a good starter by a significant amount by making the trade. And the chance of finding a really good player was equal.

    The other point to take away is the chance finding a 3 year starter from late 2nd/ very early third round picks (using standard round definitions) - 44% so more than 50% of those chosen are scrubs, by the third round the scub percentage has risen to 70% and by the #91 pick everyone is jumping off a cliff over - only 1 in 5 draft picks are going to make it. Personally I am not jumping anywhere for a 20% chance.

    Wed for their draft articles: http://www.draftmetrics.com/draft.asp?f=2

    and for the 7 round article http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/THE%20REAL%20SEVEN%20ROUNDS%20OF%20THE%20NFL%20DRAFT.pdf

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.




    agreed babe...it's amazing in this era of techno overload that every nerd with a pc puts together some convoluted mathematical "formula" and thinks that is the way athletics and athletes should be quantified and judged...I bet a lot of these nerds aren't even fans of sports just geeks feeding hard "data" into a pc according to some algorithm/program

    worse yet is how fans-especially older fans-use this as more than it is or as the basis for what takes place on the field, much less in the heart of an athlete or the mind of a coach at crunch time...I mean how the great teams and players and gms and coaches of yore ever did anything without this I will never know...imagine how great Lombardi or Noll could have been if only they had these nerds and their know-it-all technology!

    ok rant over thank you all for your time

    PS: Billy Beane's teams will NEVER win anything

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.

    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to digger0862's comment:

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

     




    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from digger0862. Show digger0862's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to digger0862's comment:

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

    but i get ur point

     

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to digger0862's comment:

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

     




    Oh gee. You must be right. Drafting has nothing to do with winning Lombardis. My bad. lmao

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

     

     




    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that

     




    When you win 2 of the last 6 Lombardis you must be doing something right on draft day.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     



    Allah aka bar troll 

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

     

     




    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that

     

     




    When you win 2 of the last 6 Lombardis you must be doing something right on draft day.

     




    not according to rusty

    he says the reese doesn't "get" the salary cap

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

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    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     

     



    Allah aka bar troll 

     




    F**k You  Smile

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     

     



    Allah aka bar troll 

     

     




    F**k You  Smile

     



    What's the matter self proclaimed board cop? Get under your skin?  Maybe mom and dad will take you off the island to Disney  so you can get worldly.  Apparently you have something against Christians.  go ask your giants questions some where else al sharpton of BDC. Self proclaimed as you are.  

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from 42AND46. Show 42AND46's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to Philskiw1's comment:

     

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    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     

     



    Allah aka bar troll 

     

     




    F**k You  Smile

     

     



    What's the matter self proclaimed board cop? Get under your skin?  Maybe mom and dad will take you off the island to Disney  so you can get worldly.  Apparently you have something against Christians.  go ask your giants questions some where else al sharpton of BDC. Self proclaimed as you are.  

     




    Phil ur the perfect "Christian" that we too often see in America: ignorant and hateful

    and thats my last comment on the topic b/c I dont talk this stuff here

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsbandwagonsince76. Show patsbandwagonsince76's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

     

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.

     




    agreed babe...it's amazing in this era of techno overload that every nerd with a pc puts together some convoluted mathematical "formula" and thinks that is the way athletics and athletes should be quantified and judged...I bet a lot of these nerds aren't even fans of sports just geeks feeding hard "data" into a pc according to some algorithm/program

     

    worse yet is how fans-especially older fans-use this as more than it is or as the basis for what takes place on the field, much less in the heart of an athlete or the mind of a coach at crunch time...I mean how the great teams and players and gms and coaches of yore ever did anything without this I will never know...imagine how great Lombardi or Noll could have been if only they had these nerds and their know-it-all technology!

    ok rant over thank you all for your time

    PS: Billy Beane's teams will NEVER win anything

     


    The stats presented above are not meant to choose the best players they simply are a way of showing how far off they are from the idealized case of drafting perfectly from most sucessful to least sucessfull.

    It shows they still have a ways to go which means great opportunity for the team out there that can evaluate talent..theoretically there is a star availible in every round.

    The statistical approach might work in baseball but for football I think a face to face meeting and 10 minutes of film will always be better than  the most sophisticated  number crunching in the world.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Philskiw1. Show Philskiw1's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

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    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to digger0862's comment:

     

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.


    Right Babe. The best team always wins. I guess that makes the Ravens the best drafters even though they lost 4 of their last 5 regular season games and should have lost to the Broncos in the divisional round. Last year the Giants were the best drafters. What happened to the Giants this year? Sound logic you have there.

    who said the giants were the best drfters last year? i dont remember hearing that


    From Babe's post. Simple deduction my dear watson.

     

     




    well that would mean they were the best drafters two years ago not last year

     

    but i get ur point

     

     



    Maybe you can go to a giants site and find that info.  This is a pats site troll.  

     

     



    not very Christian of you phil

     

     



    Allah aka bar troll 

     

     




    F**k You  Smile

     

     



    What's the matter self proclaimed board cop? Get under your skin?  Maybe mom and dad will take you off the island to Disney  so you can get worldly.  Apparently you have something against Christians.  go ask your giants questions some where else al sharpton of BDC. Self proclaimed as you are.  

     

     




    Phil ur the perfect "Christian" that we too often see in America: ignorant and hateful

     

    and thats my last comment on the topic b/c I dont talk this stuff here



    You assume im a Christian your broad brush stroke of what a Christian is shows your ignorance. You probably have never been off Long Island.  I've filled 5 passports already and working on my 6 th. go to the giants board where you belong. All you do here is stalk rusty and make comments you have no right making.  Maybe someone should stalk you.  

     
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  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from anonymis. Show anonymis's posts

    Re: Number Crunchers - Evaluating Talent Acquisitions via NFL Draft

    In response to 42AND46's comment:

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

     

    The only statistic that means anything relative to the draft is Lombardi Trophys won.

     




    agreed babe...it's amazing in this era of techno overload that every nerd with a pc puts together some convoluted mathematical "formula" and thinks that is the way athletics and athletes should be quantified and judged...I bet a lot of these nerds aren't even fans of sports just geeks feeding hard "data" into a pc according to some algorithm/program

     

    worse yet is how fans-especially older fans-use this as more than it is or as the basis for what takes place on the field, much less in the heart of an athlete or the mind of a coach at crunch time...I mean how the great teams and players and gms and coaches of yore ever did anything without this I will never know...imagine how great Lombardi or Noll could have been if only they had these nerds and their know-it-all technology!

    ok rant over thank you all for your time

    PS: Billy Beane's teams will NEVER win anything




    I don't think that was the point of the article/study.

     
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