Re: Patriots are almost sure to drade down.
posted at 4/21/2014 2:40 PM EDT
In response to mthurl's comment:
In response to mellymel3's comment:
Can't agree...I think they will trade down as often as possible...there are only, roughly, a half dozen true difference makers in this draft...between the end of the first round, about #22-25, the same good level of player is available from late 1 to mid 4th round, even 5th round.....the QB's available are NOT as good as in prior years, so those needing Qb'S MAY WELL PASS ON TAKING THEM IN THE FIRST 8-10 PICKS TO GRAB GUYS THEY TRULY NEED TO IMPROVE THEIR TALENT BASE (SORRY, caps)...that means 2, 3 even 4 teams will want to grab a late #1, early #2 for a QB...and that's where the trade back chaNCES WILL COME AS TEAMS JOCKEY TO GET IN FRONT OF EACH OTHER FOR THE qb THEY PASSED ON EARLY IN THE DRAFT..
We'll see...the but the single ruliling caveat with the Pats every year in the draft is BB himself...only he knows what he's likely to do.
You bring up some good points, the only thing I can say is...this "deep draft" talk happens every year, but after the draft you hear a whole different side of the story. A day after the draft we'll hear things like...they just didn't think any of the defensive ends after the top 6 guys were draftable players...aside from a handful of defensive tackles there really wasn't any guys that had the skill set that would translate well to a NFL scheme...there were only a few tight ends that could block and catch...although there were some good corners, there were no blue chip guys...the safety class was weak, etc, etc ,etc.
I've heard this all before, the question mell, is this year truly different?? Because we don't really know how these teams view this draft...or how it will unfold. It seems most teams have a very different draft board than the ones we see in magazines and on draft websites, I can guarantee you that 1/3rd of the players we watch on draftbreakdown aren't the players most of these teams value so highly. There will probably be 10 players drafted in the first two rounds that none of us thought would go that high...and that happens every year. Between rounds three and four there will be 20 players none of us thought would go in those rounds....usually corners and offensive linemen.
You're right, only Belichick knows what he's likely to do, but even he doesn't really know what's going to happen. I hope we can trade back and land a first round talent in the second - because I think you're right - there are only a half dozen true difference makers, but then again a guy like Belichick might see one (a blue chip guy) that we don't outside that number. A few years ago it was rumored that we were very interested in Aldon Smith - he went in the teens - I would call him a difference maker. Now I didn't think he was a blue chip prospect before that draft, but Bill did...and he was right. Of course no one knew Aldon was crazier than a cup of tea, but he certainly is a outstanding player. Chandler Jones is another guy who many weren't calling a difference maker prior to that draft - then a couple of days before the draft we started hearing how this guy was going from a second round prospect, to maybe a top 15 pick. Turns out he was very much worth trading up for...and should of went much higher. The draft is unpredictable, it's why I find it so interesting.
I agree we hear this "deep draft" stuff on a regular basis...I agree we don't have the professional insight these guys have on all the players in this draft, the film of these guys the pros have ripped apart, the coaches interviewed and "off the record" comments and the interviews with the guys themselves...neither do most of the talking head types...I mean I think the Pats should draft a center because I think Wendell is the weakest link and a dangerously weak link on a team facing 330-350 lb. behemoths in the middle of D lines around the league, and most of these guys can move as well as stand their ground.....but when I hear about the Pats considering Martin of USC with the first pick I shake my head...good player, just not worth a first, IMO, not when they have more pressing needs (PASS RUSH and young , talented interior DL)
It's all just guessing regardless of what sources you have and what draft sites you canvass....and yes, BB's draft board is ALWAYS different than others, and we always get smacked down by it...personally, I do not again want to watch the draft coverage all night long and find out they've drafted Joe Stinkbottom from State U that everyone else had going in the 4th round, or see them trade down yet again......but it's his show....the rest is us entertaining ourselves, albeit fairly educated entertainment....I have to admit spending more time this year than prior years reviewing film on guys and the general absorption of info on players...I feel confident that for a pedestrian my knowledge base is pretty good...but no, I have no more of a clue about what BB and the other teams will do at all.....I cannot be objective about the Pats and won't pretend to be...everything I see them doing I can only see through the eyes of a loyal Pats fan.....
It will be interesting and entertaining no matter who goes where in the draft...I LOVE THIS STUFF!