Re: Patriots moves making me think...
posted at 3/19/2012 8:36 AM EDT
In Response to Re: Patriots moves making me think...
[QUOTE]PatsEng~ You know very well that I was fanatically on the NFL Players' sides during this past lockout. Honestly, they actually had to FIGHT their way, in the greatest money making sport, to STILL come away in the end with a 49% share (which is still I believe, the LEAST % take for players of any of the other 3 major pro sports- see- pro-basketball divas trying to force a lockout because they were only currently just getting a 60% take...madness, with absolutely no pity or support from me). But in terms of The NE Patriots and The NFL's hard team salary cap? I believe in ruthlessly cold business when it comes to the lone individual verses MY team. Welker's got about 10 mil of the 120 million dollar cap...that's insane for the amount to be able to spend on those 52 other guys. Welker's what...either 30 or 31 years old? Welker plays a position at his 5 foot 9 a buck 80 something size, that he can and HAS and very OFTEN, gets crushed while doing. You just HAVE to consider these things... And once you take the personal out of it, ya end up remembering that Richard Seymour at around that same age, but coming off of something like 4 outta 5 injury riddled seasons of pretty cr#ppy production on NE at a HUGE 2nd contract price, verses Wes Welker's 4 outta 5 Seasons of constant and consistant and pro-bowl production--- And IF NE still acquired a 1st Rd Pick for the Richard Seymour of that time...then ya gotta at least entertain what ya might nab for the guy currently producing at the ALL-Pro level- yet who's 10 mil price tag and 30+ year old, 5 foot 9 frame is much more likely to get injured within his on-field job...leaving you with nuthin'. It's a market like any...buy low, sell high. When you become too attached to something, and/or when ya try to ride the shares out and up for just a bit too long, You might just come away with incredibly less than you coulda had.
Posted by LazarusintheSanatorium[/QUOTE]
Laz value lies in what they provide to the team not in the amount they get paid relative to the other players on the team.
For instance, even though there are 52 other players on the team not everyone is equal. Obviously Brady should get paid more, same with Wilfork, and same with Mayo, etc. In the end though you have to pick and chose who means what to the team as a whole. You are right I don't think Welker means 10mil to the team long term but if the Pats were willing to toss 10mil at him for 1 year of production, knowing that he might not be able to be extended long term then they must see the value he presents in the short term is worth what he currently provides.
Another question to ask is if they do save the 10mil by trading him what else will the use the money on? Is that 10mil more valuable then say letting Ocho go after June 1st (saving 3mil this year), Light (5mil), Brace (.75mil), and Barrett (1mil)? That should be the question asked. If you need the 10mil to spend on other players to upgrade other positions is Welker more valuable to the team then the 4 players above. With the exception of Light you would say yes to all. Given they have Solder, Vollmer, and Cannon in the T position you can make a vary reasonable argument that Light isn't as important as Welker either. So, if the cash is why you would get rid of Welker then that's pretty poor reasoning when you have alternatives that would less affect the team.
Now, if you are talking that someone gives you a deal you can't refuse for a trade then lets look at that. You currently have picks #27 and #31 so realistically you can get anyone you want that will fall in the 20+ pick range with little effort, so you are really discussing trading Welker for a top 20 pick in order to get the value back compared to what you can already afford and would be worth losing your #1 WR over. Looking at that perspective the first question asked will be what teams would give up a top 20 pick to get Welker (as you said he is entering his 30's). The second question is for whom? There as some front 7 help but none that scream top 20 talent, and none that you might not be able to move up into the 20's and get someone with similar talent level. Of course you also have Claiborne and Blackmon but both might go in the top 7 picks and I don't think you are getting a top 10 pick for Welker, do you? So if you are looking at picks 10-20 who do you think would be there that you would want over anyone in the 20-31 range that you are willing to give up Welker (I know long term value the pick might be a better shot but picks are still gambles while Welkers a known). The other thing you have to factor is that this is a team that was 2mins from winning a SB. A draft picks takes time to work into the system. You have already upgraded 3 positions from last year so would it be beneficial to take away a big piece. It's like going into a game of chess where you lost to an opponent by a couple of moves then the next game you replace your rook with a extra bishop.
Given Brady's limited window and that we already have a championship team I would not want to change out one of the most consistent and productive WR's in the market for an unknown under fear he might leave without compensation