Patriots offense will be fine.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to NedBraden's comment:

    In response to pezz4pats's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     

    Oh jeeze!

    Anyone who thinks this O is just going to "hum along", needs to get their koolaid checked for ketamine.

    LQQk at the roster, people!

    Not ONE returning starting WR or TE from the #1 offense.  NOT ONE!

    A few 3/4 receivers that were dumped by lesser teams

    2 rookies that are injured and reportedly FAR behind.  Did I mention they are rookies?

    A slot receiver who was the teams second choice, because he is prone to being more absent than not.

     Hope ST can score a lot of points with Edelman and Slater and ghost  (who lost them games last year)

    Whoman?  Fells?  Ballard who is making an impression in camp for all the wrong reasons and may very well get beat out by a guy that's had 7 surgeries, which isn't much more than GRonk.  (who might never be Gronk again)

    Oh, and a QB, who according to some, has sucked since 2004/05, with awesome receivers that other teams drool over.  lol  Who the hel1 is drooling now?  The other teams?

    Last years O had their problems but it worked because most of them played together for 3 years., not 3 weeks.

    RB's that can't punch it in from the 1 and when they tried to feature them, resulted in low scoring games.

    A defense who can't get off the field and whose only claim to fame is interceptions when the O has afforded them a 3 score lead.  Don't think they'll be many of those in the near future.

    Ya, every thing is just peachy.  If you drink peach flavored koolaid, laced with hallucinogens and drugs that render you unconscious, that is.

     

    Really, really hope I'm wrong.....just not feeling it.  Wish I was.
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    Pezz, there is a difference between people being optimistic, people being sensisble and people who are in denial, or have an axe to grind.

     

     

    I think what some people are saying is that, while AH is a loss of talent, other people will be able to contribute to pick up the slack. What others are saying is that, while he is a loss of talent, NE will still be good without him, even if they are slightly diminished. 

    I can only think of a couple people *actually* saying that Hernandez is no great loss, coming into the season with nearly zero system experience at WR is no big deal, and NE should just hum along. 




    Well, I understand people have differing views.  Believe it or not, I am still optimistic as far as hoping for the best but expecting the worst, is optimistic.  I have to be.  I am a fan.

     

    I just believe the team is going to have to rely more on the D this year which is scary as they haven't been able to for years.  Perhaps we will be surprised.  It was that way, long ago.  I'm just not counting on it.

    I understand motivation, playing with a chip on your shoulder, coaching and a great QB help.

    It's just that sometimes TALENT is needed.  Not seeing a whole lot of it right now and that was before the Hernandez mess.  That was just the icing or the nail in the coffin, which ever you prefer.

     



    I love how you deem what BB brings in here as "no talent". LMAO

     

    Leave it to you to think arguably the best OL or RBs in the NFL at this point, one of the better TE groups with Gronk, Ballard, etc, is somehow "no talent".

    The only question is depth at WR.   You had no idea who Wes Welker was in the spring of 2007, you fraud.

     




    ALL no talent 3rd or 4th receivers or injured ones.  Yes that is correct.   One starting TE who underwent 5 surgeries this year.  That might be YOUR idea of a good O but to realist, it's an O full of scrubs.  You probably love it though because every time there is an incomplete pass, you can bash Brady more.

    Who is the fraud?  I'd say the guy that credits BB for the wins and Brady for the defeats, is the fraud.   Can't get more fraud than that.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    It's just that sometimes TALENT is needed.  Not seeing a whole lot of it right now and that was before the Hernandez mess.  



    I see talent, just not proven talent. I actually like Dobson and Boyce, and I like Sudfeld too. If I have time, I'm actually going to prep a look at what he did for Nevada in the pistol offense, and what NE does/has done from the Erhardt-Perkins offense, and how they actually blend really well, making it little surprise that he is already getting first team reps over other kids. And Amendola will fit. 

    I think a comparison to 2006 is in order. They came into that season having drafted Maroney, Chad Jackson, David Thomas, and Garrett Mills. They had recently jettisoned Givens and Branch, and were obviously not thrilled with Ben Watson's ball control issues and poor hands. Dillon, the star piece, was coming off an injury and to some was in decline.

    OK, so all of those players were busts. Fine. It's history.

    Here are four reasons why NE is much better off:

    1.) I do not think Dobson, Boyce, and Sudfeld will all be busts. I think NE gets two players out of that, and possible a bona-fide star. It's a better haul, in my opinion, by a long shot, than Jack, Thomas, and Mills. I think Dobson and Boyce are far better selections at WR than anyone they've taken since they took Branch and Givens. They aren't glorified KRs like Tate or Bethel Johnson that fans laud because of their versatility, but get analysts scratching their head because they never showed anything much at WR in college. They aren't "value" people like Taylor Price from DIVII schools who have other worldly triangle numbers, but who played in high-school caliber offenses. And they are not Florida WRs, who are usually a product of the spread-multiple system. They are two guys, brought here to catch passes. It's what they did in college, and what they are expected to do here.   

    2.) Gronk has a way, way better prognosis going forward than Dillon who was coming off an inury, but was an aging center-piece. A 32 year old running back is basically cooked. A TE coming off a broken arm is not. As long as they let his injury heal this time, Gronk will be Gronk down the road. 

    3.) Amendola is really a tremendous "fit" here. He has experience with the Erhardt-Perkins system from McD's tenure in St Louis. He has the skill-set that NE has always used well (Brown, Branch, Welker, et al). And he should meld well with Brady with all of the extra work they've been putting in this off-season. In 2006 NE didn' have a single guy that season that seemed to fit as well, even half way through the season. 

    4.) The RBs are better, much better, than 2006. Dillon was slow and aged. Maroney was a flat out bust. He had a decent average per carry, but he was a stupid runner, and would lose yardage too often. He may have been capable of getting Ridley's 1200 yards ... but not with the same effect. Ridley earns his yards, Maroney gambled for his causing the team to lose yardage. That doesn't even address the effect Vereen could have on this offense if he can pick up his assignemnts well enough to get 15-20 touches. he is like lightning in a bottle with the ball in his hands ... the Texans game last January proved what he can do to a top-notch defense. Maybe he never "gets it" well enough to move past being a sub, but the way he was in that game was not a flash in the pan ... it's what he brings to the table if you can make him a focal point of your offense.  

    So most of this focuses on Gronk.

    I actually don't have any concerns about Gronk returning at full strength. The major injury here was a broken arm that was a freak injury. The discectomy was something that wasn't really necessary and was planned for *next* offseason as a maintenance surgery (the kind of thing OL and TEs go through all the time). The question is will there be another injury? Well, he could play a whole season or two, three games, or a whole career without another significant injury. He came into the leauge and played  a ton of games before hurting his foot. 

    But make no mistake: in 2013 he will be back. He will be back at full strength. He will be back before the 6th week. Gronk has about 10 weeks recovery time scheduled. As long as there are no setbacks, and the team seems optimistic he can start trainging before that even, that that puts him in line to come off the PUP before the Aug 31 deadline that would keep him off the roster until week 7. 

    And that is where it should focus: Gronkowski. In short, after Brady he IS New England's offense. He is a devastating blocker, a devastating RZ target, and a devastating seam target. He makes the run game work and he makes the passing game work.

    When Hernandez was out ... NE was 5-1 and Brady chucked 14TDs, zero picks, and had a 113 rating, and NE's sole loss was the missed FG game against Baltimore, which had nothing to do with Hernandez being gone as the offense scored 30 points.  It was just another defensive meltdown. Without Gronk NE was NE was 4-2 and Brady had an 84.6 rating with 12 TDs and 7 picks. I know part of this is skewed by the two desperation picks in the final 5 minutes against Baltimore, but it falls in line with what you expect. Brady has about a 90 rating and NE has about a 4-3 record in games that Gronk is not there or is injured. Considering this team has lost only something like 8 games the past couple of seasons, and almost half of them are when Gronkowski isn't an option, you have to realize that he is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense after Brady. All of the records set, and gaudy numbers after Moss left, the improved rushing attack etc, all if can be attributed to this kid.

    As he goes, the rest of the targets go.  

    This kind of comes back to what I've said (and been dressed down over) about Welker or Hernandez being expensive spare parts for each other. Losing Hernandez is a huge blow if you assume NE suffers another injury, but as it stands Welker and Hernandez ran a lot of duplicate assignments. There are only so many reps over the middle of the field. Losing Hernandez is as much a hit to NE's depth (perhaps moreso) as he is to the front line starters.

    Now, two things about two of these "ifs".

    "IF" a dynamic outside target emerges it's *better* than having Hernandez.

    "IF" the defense does improve a little from last season continuing an upward trend it's better than having Hernandez.

    Having a team that relies almost solely on its defense or its offense is like putting all your chips on black ... if NE's offense is slightly diminished, but it's defense is slightly improved ... it is a NET win in my mind ... because it's like hedging your bet.

    I will say the same about the edge player. Let's say Boyce emerges as a legitimate perimeter threat ... not a guy who can be old-reliable catching 60-70 balls, but doing little else, but a guy that forces defenses to protect the edge and the deeper portion of the feild, it's a NET win even if he isn't quite the threat Hernandez was. Even if you can only get 50 balls his way. It's a net win. It's a win because it forces the defense to protect more real-estate, rather than merely cramming another quality target between the hash marks and from 15 and down. And maybe, just maybe, out of these draft selections they will get a bona-fide outside threat like a young Branch/Givens/Patten were, or like Moss/Gaffney were.  

    I get it, it's real easy to IF back about Amendola's and Gronk's reliabilty, that is where the concern goes. But you can file me into the NE isn't taking as huge a hit as Hernandez's talent would indicate camp. They'll be able to do the things they did with Welker and Hern with Amendola and Edelman. Maybe not 100% but close enough.  

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to RallyC's comment:

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

     

    The media is spinning the arrest/release of Hernandez as a devastating blow to our offense this coming season.  Many of you will probably call me a "homer" or "kool-aid drinker" for disagreeing, but I think we will score more than enough points to win games this year.  Remember, Hernandez missed a handful of games last year with his bum shoulder, and we averaged over 42 pts per contest in his absence!  I think we will see our offense sputter a bit for the first month or so of the season while Brady and his young weapons develop chemistry, but fortunantely we open up with Bills, Jets, & Bucs so we will have a great shot at beating those teams even if we aren't firing on all cylinders offensively right out of the chute.  Also,  our running attack will be much improved this year and I think that Brady/McDaniels will be able to devise a prolific play-action attack because of the stronger ground game.   One more thing, the 2 TE set isn't dead, folks.  Gronk is still the best in the buisness, and I expect him back and better than ever after Week 6 at the latest, and likely sooner.  One of Ballard/Fells/Hooman/Sudfeld will emerge as a very good #2 TE and we'll still have a ton of production from our TEs.  Look for some of the young play-makers on our team, like Vereen, Boyce, Dobson, and maybe even Sudfeld or Harrison to step up and become key contributers this season.  Our OL is still very good, and it all starts there anyway.  If we have reasonable health (isn't that the key for every team?) then I have no doubt that we will be just as prolific as ever offensively by the mid-point of the season.  I also believe that we will be better suited than ever to suceed in the playoffs with a stronger run game.  Vegas agrees, too.  As of this morning, vegasinsider.com has NE as the odds-on favorite to win the SB at 5/1.  The Hernandez deal was a tragedy on many levels, but the Pats won't let it ruin their season.

     


    For as long as BB is at the helm, the PATRIOTS will be there. No matter the QB, no matter the matter. 

     




    He was "there" in 2000, how did that work out Einstein? He was "there" in 2008, no playoffs Rusty.

     

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    The offense will be fine once we can run the ball when we need to run the ball. Padding stats against weak foes and at points in the game that running is simply less expected doesn't evince that we have a good running game.

     

     

     photo BBandtheRat_zpsc338a3a1.gif

     

     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    Great post Z.  Very thorough analysis and pretty much sums up how I feel as well.  Like I said on another thread, I'm neither positive nor negative about next year's offense, just uncertain.  Everything depends on Gronk's health, Amendola's ability to stay healthy, and the emergence of some other receivers.  If those things work out in the Pats favour, then the loss of Hernandez won't be all that significant.  

    Hern was a unique player with versatile skills that presented some difficult challenges for defenses.  But in some ways, Hern's prevalence in the offense was a much the result of the lack of two good outside receivers as it was because of Hern's own skills.  Had the Pats had two good outside threats, Hern probably would have been rotating with those receivers more than he was.  Given the lack of good outside receivers, Hern stayed in on most plays because he could be used not just as a TE/FB/H-back and slot receiver, but also as an outside receiver.  Bring in two good outside receivers, and AH would have been more a rotational player I think.

     

    I also thought Hern's productivity was declining last year.  Most of that was certainly due to injury, but his hands (or concentration) also seemed less reliable to me.  If the drops (and occasional fumbles) had continued, I think BB would have been increasingly looking for other options in the passing game.  

     
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  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from Not-A-Shot. Show Not-A-Shot's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to NedBraden's comment:



    Last tine I checked, pre 2007, when all of this "BRady must have All Star players all around him" like a whiny bunch of little girls (which Brady reportedly was after 2006), which is a big reason why he lost his balls, no one cared how legendry his receivers were.  That's back when he could ice a game or our offense could ice a game. Remember the sideline pass to Caldwell on 3rd down in SD in the 2006 Divisionals?  Yep, I do too.  When was the last time Brady made a pass like that even in a regular season game?????!

     

    Answer? NEVER!

    At least not since 2006.  

    Sad, isn't it?

    There is more to football than an easy pass for 5 yards to a great player who runs routes out of the slot or from the TE position. LEarn the game.

    This year, you might LEARN a lot about the game of football because it won't be like the video games you play.   I cannot wait.   You pink helmets have had your day in the sun for 6 seasons. The rest of us diehards have cringed since SB 42.

    ll about Brady and ego now. Check it at the door and let's go win a SB .



    I sure wish the Pats had a coach and/or GM who had the nuts to stand up to this rogue QB and tell him what plays to run.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from RallyC. Show RallyC's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to NedBraden's comment:

    In response to BabeParilli's comment:

     

    In response to RallyC's comment:

     

    In response to WazzuWheatfarmer's comment:

     

     

    The media is spinning the arrest/release of Hernandez as a devastating blow to our offense this coming season.  Many of you will probably call me a "homer" or "kool-aid drinker" for disagreeing, but I think we will score more than enough points to win games this year.  Remember, Hernandez missed a handful of games last year with his bum shoulder, and we averaged over 42 pts per contest in his absence!  I think we will see our offense sputter a bit for the first month or so of the season while Brady and his young weapons develop chemistry, but fortunantely we open up with Bills, Jets, & Bucs so we will have a great shot at beating those teams even if we aren't firing on all cylinders offensively right out of the chute.  Also,  our running attack will be much improved this year and I think that Brady/McDaniels will be able to devise a prolific play-action attack because of the stronger ground game.   One more thing, the 2 TE set isn't dead, folks.  Gronk is still the best in the buisness, and I expect him back and better than ever after Week 6 at the latest, and likely sooner.  One of Ballard/Fells/Hooman/Sudfeld will emerge as a very good #2 TE and we'll still have a ton of production from our TEs.  Look for some of the young play-makers on our team, like Vereen, Boyce, Dobson, and maybe even Sudfeld or Harrison to step up and become key contributers this season.  Our OL is still very good, and it all starts there anyway.  If we have reasonable health (isn't that the key for every team?) then I have no doubt that we will be just as prolific as ever offensively by the mid-point of the season.  I also believe that we will be better suited than ever to suceed in the playoffs with a stronger run game.  Vegas agrees, too.  As of this morning, vegasinsider.com has NE as the odds-on favorite to win the SB at 5/1.  The Hernandez deal was a tragedy on many levels, but the Pats won't let it ruin their season.

     

     


    For as long as BB is at the helm, the PATRIOTS will be there. No matter the QB, no matter the matter. 

     

     




    He was "there" in 2000, how did that work out Einstein? He was "there" in 2008, no playoffs Rusty.

     

     

     

     



    99.9% of the time, Diapers, an 11-5 record is a playoff record. Nice try.  Denver in 1985 I believe is the only team in history that went 11-5 and did not make the playoffs in a 16 game shchedule was has lasted over 30 years now.

     

    Even though you called him "Rusty", glad I could help dispel another lie of yours.



    Do you think he actually ralizes what he's saying and doing anymore? its almost like a comedy routine. 

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    Great post Z.  Very thorough analysis and pretty much sums up how I feel as well.  Like I said on another thread, I'm neither positive nor negative about next year's offense, just uncertain.  Everything depends on Gronk's health, Amendola's ability to stay healthy, and the emergence of some other receivers.  If those things work out in the Pats favour, then the loss of Hernandez won't be all that significant.  

    Hern was a unique player with versatile skills that presented some difficult challenges for defenses.  But in some ways, Hern's prevalence in the offense was a much the result of the lack of two good outside receivers as it was because of Hern's own skills.  Had the Pats had two good outside threats, Hern probably would have been rotating with those receivers more than he was.  Given the lack of good outside receivers, Hern stayed in on most plays because he could be used not just as a TE/FB/H-back and slot receiver, but also as an outside receiver.  Bring in two good outside receivers, and AH would have been more a rotational player I think.

     

    I also thought Hern's productivity was declining last year.  Most of that was certainly due to injury, but his hands (or concentration) also seemed less reliable to me.  If the drops (and occasional fumbles) had continued, I think BB would have been increasingly looking for other options in the passing game.  



    His hands were never great. His skills were in how he could get open, and what he could do with the ball. He also understood what defenses were trying to do to cover him. 

    I would say neither negative nor positive but uncertain is a good middle of the road. If you think they are somehow better, you are on too much laughing gas. But if you think losing Hernandez rspells the end, you need some laughing gas.

    RE: outside threats ... I don't know if NE would have made Hern rotational, I think they might have let Welker go without franchising him for a season though.

    Thanks, Prolate.

    NE has question marks, that is sure. The veterans they brought in (outside of Amendola) are really just retreads. Sure they are "vets" but they aren't and weren't great players. Sure they might benefit a bit from playing around Brady and Gronk, and they could be servicable, but none of them will be threats like Hernandez. They are the typcial JAGS BB likes to bring in as insurance policies to back rookie development. It's his way, and I actually like it, draft a guy, sign a vet in case the kid can't go. 

    But then, after that, I DO see talent added.

    The talent is there in the draft selections really. That and Amedola who is a great fit here for a number of reasons.

    Dobson and Boyce have raw ability that blows the doors off of what Jones and Jenkins and even Lloyd brought. They are both fast, one of them is a huge target with wingspan and a great ability to adjust to the ball, and the other is extremely agile with a great ability to get past folks with the ball in his hands. Does that mean they can pick up the offense? No it's no sure thing. Especially this offense. But it is *talent* even if it needs to be developed by BB, McDaniels, and *especially* Chad O'Shea need to get cracking on. 

    And I am willing to give NE the benefit of the doubt here.

    1.) Chad O'Shea is not Brian Daboll.

    2.) The Scouts that locked on to Dobson and Boyce aren't the same guys who gave NE Tate, Johnson, and Jackson. That was Dimitrioff, who was great at scouting defenders, but not so great at spotting offensive talent. It's John Robinson who brought in Gronkowski, Hern, Ridley, Solder, et al. In short, the guy has been white hot drafting offense.  Also, these aren't "value" picks that had great KR resumes like Tate and Bethel Johnson, or rough-around-the-edges options with sky-high triangle numbers and upside like Price, and they aren't over-rated products of the Gators' spread or spread-multiple offense like Jaquez Green, Riedel Anthony, Ike Hilliard, Travis Taylor, Reche Caldwell, and Chad Jackson. Only Percy Harvin and Jabar Gaffney have ever come close to living up to their billing as day one selections, but neither of them reached the ceiling people thought they would have. Harvin was supposed to be the next Steve Smith and Gaffney was supposed to be a pro-bowler. 

    3.) And the last time NE threw a mess of WRs at Josh McDaniels as OC, even taking away Moss, he got them all on the same page and broke some records.  

    4.) Dobson and Boyce come from programs that have a better track record working with NE (BIG12 style spread teams like Texas Tech and the Thundering Herd brought NE Welker, Brown, and Moss.) 

    5.) Sudfeld has freak triangle numbers like Gronk, and comes from a quirky Nevada pistol-offense that, oddly enough, uses it's TEs a lot like the Erhardt-Perkins offense has traditionally done. 

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

    It's just that sometimes TALENT is needed.  Not seeing a whole lot of it right now and that was before the Hernandez mess.  

     



    I see talent, just not proven talent. I actually like Dobson and Boyce, and I like Sudfeld too. If I have time, I'm actually going to prep a look at what he did for Nevada in the pistol offense, and what NE does/has done from the Erhardt-Perkins offense, and how they actually blend really well, making it little surprise that he is already getting first team reps over other kids. And Amendola will fit. 

     

    I think a comparison to 2006 is in order. They came into that season having drafted Maroney, Chad Jackson, David Thomas, and Garrett Mills. They had recently jettisoned Givens and Branch, and were obviously not thrilled with Ben Watson's ball control issues and poor hands. Dillon, the star piece, was coming off an injury and to some was in decline.

    OK, so all of those players were busts. Fine. It's history.

    Here are four reasons why NE is much better off:

    1.) I do not think Dobson, Boyce, and Sudfeld will all be busts. I think NE gets two players out of that, and possible a bona-fide star. It's a better haul, in my opinion, by a long shot, than Jack, Thomas, and Mills. I think Dobson and Boyce are far better selections at WR than anyone they've taken since they took Branch and Givens. They aren't glorified KRs like Tate or Bethel Johnson that fans laud because of their versatility, but get analysts scratching their head because they never showed anything much at WR in college. They aren't "value" people like Taylor Price from DIVII schools who have other worldly triangle numbers, but who played in high-school caliber offenses. And they are not Florida WRs, who are usually a product of the spread-multiple system. They are two guys, brought here to catch passes. It's what they did in college, and what they are expected to do here.   

    2.) Gronk has a way, way better prognosis going forward than Dillon who was coming off an inury, but was an aging center-piece. A 32 year old running back is basically cooked. A TE coming off a broken arm is not. As long as they let his injury heal this time, Gronk will be Gronk down the road. 

    3.) Amendola is really a tremendous "fit" here. He has experience with the Erhardt-Perkins system from McD's tenure in St Louis. He has the skill-set that NE has always used well (Brown, Branch, Welker, et al). And he should meld well with Brady with all of the extra work they've been putting in this off-season. In 2006 NE didn' have a single guy that season that seemed to fit as well, even half way through the season. 

    4.) The RBs are better, much better, than 2006. Dillon was slow and aged. Maroney was a flat out bust. He had a decent average per carry, but he was a stupid runner, and would lose yardage too often. He may have been capable of getting Ridley's 1200 yards ... but not with the same effect. Ridley earns his yards, Maroney gambled for his causing the team to lose yardage. That doesn't even address the effect Vereen could have on this offense if he can pick up his assignemnts well enough to get 15-20 touches. he is like lightning in a bottle with the ball in his hands ... the Texans game last January proved what he can do to a top-notch defense. Maybe he never "gets it" well enough to move past being a sub, but the way he was in that game was not a flash in the pan ... it's what he brings to the table if you can make him a focal point of your offense.  

    So most of this focuses on Gronk.

    I actually don't have any concerns about Gronk returning at full strength. The major injury here was a broken arm that was a freak injury. The discectomy was something that wasn't really necessary and was planned for *next* offseason as a maintenance surgery (the kind of thing OL and TEs go through all the time). The question is will there be another injury? Well, he could play a whole season or two, three games, or a whole career without another significant injury. He came into the leauge and played  a ton of games before hurting his foot. 

    But make no mistake: in 2013 he will be back. He will be back at full strength. He will be back before the 6th week. Gronk has about 10 weeks recovery time scheduled. As long as there are no setbacks, and the team seems optimistic he can start trainging before that even, that that puts him in line to come off the PUP before the Aug 31 deadline that would keep him off the roster until week 7. 

    And that is where it should focus: Gronkowski. In short, after Brady he IS New England's offense. He is a devastating blocker, a devastating RZ target, and a devastating seam target. He makes the run game work and he makes the passing game work.

    When Hernandez was out ... NE was 5-1 and Brady chucked 14TDs, zero picks, and had a 113 rating, and NE's sole loss was the missed FG game against Baltimore, which had nothing to do with Hernandez being gone as the offense scored 30 points.  It was just another defensive meltdown. Without Gronk NE was NE was 4-2 and Brady had an 84.6 rating with 12 TDs and 7 picks. I know part of this is skewed by the two desperation picks in the final 5 minutes against Baltimore, but it falls in line with what you expect. Brady has about a 90 rating and NE has about a 4-3 record in games that Gronk is not there or is injured. Considering this team has lost only something like 8 games the past couple of seasons, and almost half of them are when Gronkowski isn't an option, you have to realize that he is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense after Brady. All of the records set, and gaudy numbers after Moss left, the improved rushing attack etc, all if can be attributed to this kid.

    As he goes, the rest of the targets go.  

    This kind of comes back to what I've said (and been dressed down over) about Welker or Hernandez being expensive spare parts for each other. Losing Hernandez is a huge blow if you assume NE suffers another injury, but as it stands Welker and Hernandez ran a lot of duplicate assignments. There are only so many reps over the middle of the field. Losing Hernandez is as much a hit to NE's depth (perhaps moreso) as he is to the front line starters.

    Now, two things about two of these "ifs".

    "IF" a dynamic outside target emerges it's *better* than having Hernandez.

    "IF" the defense does improve a little from last season continuing an upward trend it's better than having Hernandez.

    Having a team that relies almost solely on its defense or its offense is like putting all your chips on black ... if NE's offense is slightly diminished, but it's defense is slightly improved ... it is a NET win in my mind ... because it's like hedging your bet.

    I will say the same about the edge player. Let's say Boyce emerges as a legitimate perimeter threat ... not a guy who can be old-reliable catching 60-70 balls, but doing little else, but a guy that forces defenses to protect the edge and the deeper portion of the feild, it's a NET win even if he isn't quite the threat Hernandez was. Even if you can only get 50 balls his way. It's a net win. It's a win because it forces the defense to protect more real-estate, rather than merely cramming another quality target between the hash marks and from 15 and down. And maybe, just maybe, out of these draft selections they will get a bona-fide outside threat like a young Branch/Givens/Patten were, or like Moss/Gaffney were.  

    I get it, it's real easy to IF back about Amendola's and Gronk's reliabilty, that is where the concern goes. But you can file me into the NE isn't taking as huge a hit as Hernandez's talent would indicate camp. They'll be able to do the things they did with Welker and Hern with Amendola and Edelman. Maybe not 100% but close enough.  




    Thanks Z

    Always appreciate your posts.  They are always well thought out, logical and with great analysis.

    However, it is all those "If's" that concern me.  That's a lot to wish for IMO and what if Boyce or Dobson can't pick up the system.   It's not like BB has a great track record there. although they are probably not what we've seen in the past.  ST guys.

    What if Amandola, who is prone to missing games, follows suit.  It's always concerned me that a team that is always top of the league in injuries (whether fabricated or not), goes for this type of player.  I just don't get that.  Right now they have Gronk, Ballard, Boyce, Dobson,  more....already injured.  That doesn't even begin to account for the multiple more that will be.

    Gronk is young and plays with reckless abandon, but you'd be mistaken to think the arm and especially the discectomy won't hinder him.  Take it from someone who's had three.  The first one is almost always the cause of the second or the 3rd as the removal of the disc, places added pressure on the healthy ones.  Those things take their toll, especially when you are flying through the air and landing on your head.

    Then, what if none or little works out?  Where's the depth?   With the exception of Fells, Amandola and molasses Mike, these are all NON-starters on other teams or guys that have never taken a NFL snap.

    They might turn out to be great.  I'd just feel more comfortable if not relying on a bunch of "ifs".

    Probably wasn't fair to say NO talent, they have some or they wouldn't be there.

    I think unproven or even less talented than what they had before is more accurate.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    Again, I'm going to reiterate my feelings on Dobson and Boyce. NE might miss with them ... but they will have missed in the right way.

    You grab KR prospects of the waiver wire or low in the draft, or you try and convert a great WR prospect into a KR. You don't use day one selections on them. NE got what they bargained for with the 2nd rounder they used on Bethel Johnson and the 3rd rounder they used for Brandon Tate ... good KRs who are either returning kicks for other teams or out of the league because even "very good" KRs are a dime a dozen. Yeah, they busted as WRs and NE *did* get solid returns out of them ... but they should have been selecting guys that were just plain old good WR prospects like Mike Wallace and Anquan Boldin who were taken just a pick or two after them, had much less diverse resumes, but didn't leave people scratching their head.

    NE saw a WR with second round talent and took him. Sure Dobson never returned kicks, but I've seen him run credible drags, drives, corners, fades, flies, posts, flags, and comebacks, and make some pretty spectacular catches in the process. That is a lot more than Chad Jackson ever ran at Florida or Price ever ran at the Ohio Voc-Tech Intramural team he played for.

    They saw a TCU WR with 3rd round round resume and took him very high in the 4th. Sure Boyce might be a product of TCUs offense ... but he isn't a high second and has metrics and a resume as good as Chad Jackson. A lot less risk for a similar player.

     
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     

    In response to pezz4pats' comment:

     

     

     

    It's just that sometimes TALENT is needed.  Not seeing a whole lot of it right now and that was before the Hernandez mess.  

     

     



    I see talent, just not proven talent. I actually like Dobson and Boyce, and I like Sudfeld too. If I have time, I'm actually going to prep a look at what he did for Nevada in the pistol offense, and what NE does/has done from the Erhardt-Perkins offense, and how they actually blend really well, making it little surprise that he is already getting first team reps over other kids. And Amendola will fit. 

     

     

    I think a comparison to 2006 is in order. They came into that season having drafted Maroney, Chad Jackson, David Thomas, and Garrett Mills. They had recently jettisoned Givens and Branch, and were obviously not thrilled with Ben Watson's ball control issues and poor hands. Dillon, the star piece, was coming off an injury and to some was in decline.

    OK, so all of those players were busts. Fine. It's history.

    Here are four reasons why NE is much better off:

    1.) I do not think Dobson, Boyce, and Sudfeld will all be busts. I think NE gets two players out of that, and possible a bona-fide star. It's a better haul, in my opinion, by a long shot, than Jack, Thomas, and Mills. I think Dobson and Boyce are far better selections at WR than anyone they've taken since they took Branch and Givens. They aren't glorified KRs like Tate or Bethel Johnson that fans laud because of their versatility, but get analysts scratching their head because they never showed anything much at WR in college. They aren't "value" people like Taylor Price from DIVII schools who have other worldly triangle numbers, but who played in high-school caliber offenses. And they are not Florida WRs, who are usually a product of the spread-multiple system. They are two guys, brought here to catch passes. It's what they did in college, and what they are expected to do here.   

    2.) Gronk has a way, way better prognosis going forward than Dillon who was coming off an inury, but was an aging center-piece. A 32 year old running back is basically cooked. A TE coming off a broken arm is not. As long as they let his injury heal this time, Gronk will be Gronk down the road. 

    3.) Amendola is really a tremendous "fit" here. He has experience with the Erhardt-Perkins system from McD's tenure in St Louis. He has the skill-set that NE has always used well (Brown, Branch, Welker, et al). And he should meld well with Brady with all of the extra work they've been putting in this off-season. In 2006 NE didn' have a single guy that season that seemed to fit as well, even half way through the season. 

    4.) The RBs are better, much better, than 2006. Dillon was slow and aged. Maroney was a flat out bust. He had a decent average per carry, but he was a stupid runner, and would lose yardage too often. He may have been capable of getting Ridley's 1200 yards ... but not with the same effect. Ridley earns his yards, Maroney gambled for his causing the team to lose yardage. That doesn't even address the effect Vereen could have on this offense if he can pick up his assignemnts well enough to get 15-20 touches. he is like lightning in a bottle with the ball in his hands ... the Texans game last January proved what he can do to a top-notch defense. Maybe he never "gets it" well enough to move past being a sub, but the way he was in that game was not a flash in the pan ... it's what he brings to the table if you can make him a focal point of your offense.  

    So most of this focuses on Gronk.

    I actually don't have any concerns about Gronk returning at full strength. The major injury here was a broken arm that was a freak injury. The discectomy was something that wasn't really necessary and was planned for *next* offseason as a maintenance surgery (the kind of thing OL and TEs go through all the time). The question is will there be another injury? Well, he could play a whole season or two, three games, or a whole career without another significant injury. He came into the leauge and played  a ton of games before hurting his foot. 

    But make no mistake: in 2013 he will be back. He will be back at full strength. He will be back before the 6th week. Gronk has about 10 weeks recovery time scheduled. As long as there are no setbacks, and the team seems optimistic he can start trainging before that even, that that puts him in line to come off the PUP before the Aug 31 deadline that would keep him off the roster until week 7. 

    And that is where it should focus: Gronkowski. In short, after Brady he IS New England's offense. He is a devastating blocker, a devastating RZ target, and a devastating seam target. He makes the run game work and he makes the passing game work.

    When Hernandez was out ... NE was 5-1 and Brady chucked 14TDs, zero picks, and had a 113 rating, and NE's sole loss was the missed FG game against Baltimore, which had nothing to do with Hernandez being gone as the offense scored 30 points.  It was just another defensive meltdown. Without Gronk NE was NE was 4-2 and Brady had an 84.6 rating with 12 TDs and 7 picks. I know part of this is skewed by the two desperation picks in the final 5 minutes against Baltimore, but it falls in line with what you expect. Brady has about a 90 rating and NE has about a 4-3 record in games that Gronk is not there or is injured. Considering this team has lost only something like 8 games the past couple of seasons, and almost half of them are when Gronkowski isn't an option, you have to realize that he is the straw that stirs the drink for this offense after Brady. All of the records set, and gaudy numbers after Moss left, the improved rushing attack etc, all if can be attributed to this kid.

    As he goes, the rest of the targets go.  

    This kind of comes back to what I've said (and been dressed down over) about Welker or Hernandez being expensive spare parts for each other. Losing Hernandez is a huge blow if you assume NE suffers another injury, but as it stands Welker and Hernandez ran a lot of duplicate assignments. There are only so many reps over the middle of the field. Losing Hernandez is as much a hit to NE's depth (perhaps moreso) as he is to the front line starters.

    Now, two things about two of these "ifs".

    "IF" a dynamic outside target emerges it's *better* than having Hernandez.

    "IF" the defense does improve a little from last season continuing an upward trend it's better than having Hernandez.

    Having a team that relies almost solely on its defense or its offense is like putting all your chips on black ... if NE's offense is slightly diminished, but it's defense is slightly improved ... it is a NET win in my mind ... because it's like hedging your bet.

    I will say the same about the edge player. Let's say Boyce emerges as a legitimate perimeter threat ... not a guy who can be old-reliable catching 60-70 balls, but doing little else, but a guy that forces defenses to protect the edge and the deeper portion of the feild, it's a NET win even if he isn't quite the threat Hernandez was. Even if you can only get 50 balls his way. It's a net win. It's a win because it forces the defense to protect more real-estate, rather than merely cramming another quality target between the hash marks and from 15 and down. And maybe, just maybe, out of these draft selections they will get a bona-fide outside threat like a young Branch/Givens/Patten were, or like Moss/Gaffney were.  

    I get it, it's real easy to IF back about Amendola's and Gronk's reliabilty, that is where the concern goes. But you can file me into the NE isn't taking as huge a hit as Hernandez's talent would indicate camp. They'll be able to do the things they did with Welker and Hern with Amendola and Edelman. Maybe not 100% but close enough.  

     




    Thanks Z

     

    Always appreciate your posts.  They are always well thought out, logical and with great analysis.

    However, it is all those "If's" that concern me.  That's a lot to wish for IMO and what if Boyce or Dobson can't pick up the system.   It's not like BB has a great track record there. although they are probably not what we've seen in the past.  ST guys.

    What if Amandola, who is prone to missing games, follows suit.  It's always concerned me that a team that is always top of the league in injuries (whether fabricated or not), goes for this type of player.  I just don't get that.  Right now they have Gronk, Ballard, Boyce, Dobson,  more....already injured.  That doesn't even begin to account for the multiple more that will be.

    Gronk is young and plays with reckless abandon, but you'd be mistaken to think the arm and especially the discectomy won't hinder him.  Take it from someone who's had three.  The first one is almost always the cause of the second or the 3rd as the removal of the disc, places added pressure on the healthy ones.  Those things take their toll, especially when you are flying through the air and landing on your head.

    Then, what if none or little works out?  Where's the depth?   With the exception of Fells, Amandola and molasses Mike, these are all NON-starters on other teams or guys that have never taken a NFL snap.

    They might turn out to be great.  I'd just feel more comfortable if not relying on a bunch of "ifs".

    Probably wasn't fair to say NO talent, they have some or they wouldn't be there.

    I think unproven or even less talented than what they had before is more accurate.



    Thanks Pezz.

    Well, half of those conditionals are about NE being a *better* offense than it was before. 

    The only conditional about NE basically being a push is Amendola and Gronk being healthy. I dont' see either of them being injured as a high probability. Sure it is higher than other players, but not particularly high given the nature of their injuries. 

    Some combination of Jenkins and Jones should give NE at least something close what it's gotten out of Lloyd, even if I can't figure out why he is gone. After that ... Ne set some records last season and Gronk, Lloyd and Welker only played a couple of games on the same field at the same time.  

    The big conditional is about NE really hitting a home run with Dobson, Boyce, and Sudfeld, who could open the offense up in new ways. 

    But yeah, I can acknowledge, the loss of talent and depth will be felt, cruelly felt, if Amendola or Gronk is lost for the season. Get those two guys healthy down the stretch and NE will have the ponies. 

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to zbellino's comment:

     


    His hands were never great. His skills were in how he could get open, and what he could do with the ball. He also understood what defenses were trying to do to cover him. 

    Agree.  He was a challenge to cover and could run well after the catch.  If I'm not mistaken he was a running back in high school.  The Pats also used to slide him inside at the snap on running plays and use him as a lead blocker like a fullback.  There was a lot of versatility in his skills that made him as good as he was.  Still, I think fans tended to ignore his drops while being highly critical of Welker's.  Welker had a few key drops, but it seems to me that Hernandez was more prone to drops than Welker.  

    RE: outside threats ... I don't know if NE would have made Hern rotational, I think they might have let Welker go without franchising him for a season though.

    This of course is a possibility.  But I think if the Pats had had Welker, Hern, Gronk, Lloyd, and one other good outside receiver, you would have seen more formations with the two outside receivers (Lloyd and the other guy) on the field together and this would have probably meant fewer snaps for both Hern and Welker. 



     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    [QUOTE]

     

     


    His hands were never great. His skills were in how he could get open, and what he could do with the ball. He also understood what defenses were trying to do to cover him. 

    Agree.  He was a challenge to cover and could run well after the catch.  If I'm not mistaken he was a running back in high school.  The Pats also used to slide him inside at the snap on running plays and use him as a lead blocker like a fullback.  There was a lot of versatility in his skills that made him as good as he was.  Still, I think fans tended to ignore his drops while being highly critical of Welker's.  Welker had a few key drops, but it seems to me that Hernandez was more prone to drops than Welker.  

    RE: outside threats ... I don't know if NE would have made Hern rotational, I think they might have let Welker go without franchising him for a season though.

    This of course is a possibility.  But I think if the Pats had had Welker, Hern, Gronk, Lloyd, and one other good outside receiver, you would have seen more formations with the two outside receivers (Lloyd and the other guy) on the field together and this would have probably meant fewer snaps for both Hern and Welker. 

     




    Well. Sure. There would only be so many reps to go around. But if NE had another threat outside, they wouldn't have invested all that money into Amendola/Welker/Hernandez. One or two of them wouldn't have gotten the contracts they have.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Patriots offense will be fine.

    In response to NedBraden's comment:

    In response to PatsLifer's comment:

     

    For those that think the pats offense will just hum along, I don't believe so, especially without Gronk on the field. Yes, we scored 42 without Hernandez, but we also had welker, Gronk and Lloyd. 

    The loss of Hernandez is devastating, in that it forces us to do things differently. No one on this roster in the TE group is close to Hernandez skill set. Couple that with Gronk and as the other team fan said, it changes the game of football. Missing one, we get by. Missing both plus welker and Lloyd will be an uphill battle for sure.

    if the defense can get out of the gate fast, not wait until November to start playing well, they may be able to compensate for the offense until they get comfortable . To me, thinking the pats will put up points the way they have in the recent past is nieve, at least in the early part,of the season. It's time the defense carried this team early On in the season.

     




    No. No, it's not devatstating. It hurts losing another piece like Hernandez, but this dramatic word choice like "devastating" is a joke. An absolute drama queen joke.  We went 5-1 without Hernandez last year.  The only reason why it wasn't 6-0 is because Brady sucked and Gostkowski missed a FG. A week later, our best WR was Edelman in Baltimore. And guess who got the ball in open space, but from the perimeter position?  Julian Edelman.  Amendola is Welker, but also someone you can move around and don't need to use a shotgun position to be able to target, due the fact they are each taller.

     

    Edelman has a knowledge of the system as does Amendola.  We'll see if BB brings back Lloyd or if he feels Dobson, Boyce, Jones, Jenkins, Hawkins, Thompkins or Harrison find a spot in here somewhere.

    One or two of those guys will need to be a back up or a spot guy for the likely X and Z starters with a great RB and TE group.  Gronk only has 38 TDs since 2010 for crying out loud. Ballard will be even better with Brady as his QB over Eli Manning, too.

     



    AH coupled with Gronk injury, loss of welker and Lloyd is devastating. How do you give up all your pass catchers and still hum along? You don't Initially. The defense needs to step up early until the offense gets going. I am optimistic in that I think Brady and mcd can get the best from this group, but as of now, they are unproven. If that doesn't give you concern, or you can't see the potential effect of this, then rusty you may be dodging reality. It's really simple. we are putting all of our eggs in baskets that have either been perennially injured, unproven in our system or both. What exactly can't you see here?

     
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