Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

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    Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    We'll find out what kind of team New England really is during the next chunk of the season, as we face a series of high quality opponents, starting with a good Ravens team.

    The Ravens are 4-1, with 3 quality wins over the Steelers, Broncos, Jets and Browns (clearly they dominate teams whose names start with "B," and I consider Cleveland a quality win).  They've made a pretty good acquisition to their offense with Anquan Boldin, and they get super-safety Ed Ed Reed back for their game against NE.

    But here are some statistics I find telling:

    1. QB Play: While it has been good enough to win, Joe Flacco's play has been really mediocre:
    Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating
    Joe Flacco 170 97 1116 57.1 6.6 5 2.9 6 3.5 58 5 39 72.1

    Compare that to Brady's numbers:
    Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating
    Tom Brady 122 85 911 69.7 7.5 9 7.4 2 1.6 46 5 23 109.0

    Flacco's 57% completion ratio pales in comparison to Brady's near 70%, and Brady is clearly more productive and more careful with the ball.  In this case, we have a mediocre QB going against one performing at a truly elite level: advantage Patriots.

    2. Turnover Differential: This is huge, and favors the the Patriots.  Baltimore has not been careful with the ball, and has not had the opportunistic defense of old that forced turnovers.  The defense has only forced four turnovers (a measly 1 INT all season), and the Ravens are -6 turnover differential.  New England on the other hand is +4, with 8 defensive forced turnovers: advantage Patriots.

    3. Third Down Efficiency:  This is one of the few stats that matters, and this one is complex for these teams.  On the one hand, the Ravens are having some success on third down, converting a respectable 46%.  However that is nothing like the Patriots 55% mark.  But the Ravens flip the script on defense, allowing their opponents a puny 26% conversion ratio on third down.  The Pats on the other hand are very generous on third down, allowing their opponents a 55% third down conversion rate: advantage Ravens.

    That's my three key statistical comparisons: the Patriots have a huge advantage in QB play and are winning the turnover battle.  That's important, and is why the Patriots are favored in this contest.  But the Ravens are very stingy on third down, and the Pats aren't, and that's a huge part of who will win this game.  I expect this game to be fairly close, and the difference will be that one team makes a couple key stops on third down, and makes a couple more key conversions.

    Prediction: Patriots 28, Ravens 17.


    EDIT: Blarghh I forgot about Jets win
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    The Ravens will win ... nevermore.
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from patriotzking18. Show patriotzking18's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Ed Reed comes back week 7 not this week
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from JohnHannahrulz. Show JohnHannahrulz's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    The Pats D needs to stop the run and at least hurry Flacco into making poor decisions. On O we have to move the ball against a good defense. We really haven't faced a good defense since the Jets (ugghhh).  The Ravens secondary looks like it would be susceptible to the play action pass. I could see Hernandez becoming very important to this offense with Moss gone. I would also suggest that the O Line has to stop the Ravens pass rush and by Brady enough time to hit receivers on short-intermediate routes.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]We'll find out what kind of team New England really is during the next chunk of the season, as we face a series of high quality opponents, starting with a good Ravens team. The Ravens are 4-1, with 3 quality wins over the Steelers, Broncos, Jets and Browns (clearly they dominate teams whose names start with "B," and I consider Cleveland a quality win).  They've made a pretty good acquisition to their offense with Anquan Boldin, and they get super-safety Ed Ed Reed back for their game against NE. But here are some statistics I find telling: 1. QB Play : While it has been good enough to win, Joe Flacco's play has been really mediocre: Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating Joe Flacco 170 97 1116 57.1 6.6 5 2.9 6 3.5 58 5 39 72.1 Compare that to Brady's numbers: Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating Tom Brady 122 85 911 69.7 7.5 9 7.4 2 1.6 46 5 23 109.0 Flacco's 57% completion ratio pales in comparison to Brady's near 70%, and Brady is clearly more productive and more careful with the ball.  In this case, we have a mediocre QB going against one performing at a truly elite level: advantage Patriots. 2. Turnover Differential : This is huge, and favors the the Patriots.  Baltimore has not been careful with the ball, and has not had the opportunistic defense of old that forced turnovers.  The defense has only forced four turnovers (a measly 1 INT all season), and the Ravens are -6 turnover differential.  New England on the other hand is +4, with 8 defensive forced turnovers: advantage Patriots . 3. Third Down Efficiency:  This is one of the few stats that matters, and this one is complex for these teams.  On the one hand, the Ravens are having some success on third down, converting a respectable 46%.  However that is nothing like the Patriots 55% mark.  But the Ravens flip the script on defense, allowing their opponents a puny 26% conversion ratio on third down.  The Pats on the other hand are very generous on third down, allowing their opponents a 55% third down conversion rate: advantage Ravens. That's my three key statistical comparisons: the Patriots have a huge advantage in QB play and are winning the turnover battle.  That's important, and is why the Patriots are favored in this contest.  But the Ravens are very stingy on third down, and the Pats aren't, and that's a huge part of who will win this game.  I expect this game to be fairly close, and the difference will be that one team makes a couple key stops on third down, and makes a couple more key conversions. Prediction : Patriots 28, Ravens 17. EDIT: Blarghh I forgot about Jets win
    Posted by USMCM1A1[/QUOTE] Though I didn't research as much as you did,I concur with the Patriots winning the game. the ravens will not see the ball as much as they need to in order for them to win the game. The Patriots are reverting to what won them football games: Ball control offense. BJGE is a straight forward style running back and with the addition of Branch the little WR  offense has returned to New England. The Patriots now have a plethora of slot receivers which is the type of WR's they had from 2000-2006. This offense might actually be better suited for the dink and dunk than those teams. I kind of see this game as a touchdown difference in favor of the Patriots,so my prediction is 27-20 New England.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from patriotway1. Show patriotway1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    The Ravens will want to set the tempo with rushing Brady, if the Patriots use the quick pass system with Welker, Hernandez, Gonk, Edelman and Woodhead and get 5 to 8 yards each time they will beat the Ravens.
    I doubt BJGE will get more than 50 yards this game, straight up running against the Ravens doesnt work. If the Patriots could mount  5 yard out screen type dump offs it would kill the Ravens all day.
    I guess only time is going to tell on this one.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from USMCM1A1. Show USMCM1A1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]Ed Reed comes back week 7 not this week
    Posted by patriotzking18[/QUOTE]

    Oops, my bad.  Better for us, then :)
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Clay73. Show Clay73's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Ball Control = Clock Control.  Bill and his staff now have better a knowledge of just how much these kids are capable of and he has had two weeks to prepare for them.  I say we beat the Ravens in a close game.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from harleyroadking1. Show harleyroadking1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Hannahrulz has it right...two tall orders for the defense 1. stop their run 2. pressure Flacko  if they can have any success in that our O should be able to do enough to win
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from beavis. Show beavis's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Brady, as he is in the shot gun formation and steering right at Ray Lewis and thinking, oh, boy this the one of the best, if not the best line backer that ever played in the NFL, I better avoid him...

    Ray Lewis is one of my favorite, and his view on how the team wins:

    Good Defense, having 3 and out is key...

    Quick points by the Offense...

    Good Speacial Teams...

    Good Offensive Line to give Flacco time...

    Pretty basic stuff that any idiot should realize...

    GET AT FLACCO, HE IS NOT WHAT HE IS OR WHAT THE LEAGUE WANTS HIM TO BE...IF YOU GIVE HIM TIME HE HAS THE ARM TO HURT YOU...HE CANNOT READ MORE THAN TWO RECEIVERS...

    BLITZ HIM EARLY AND OFTEN...GET CHUNG TO DO A SAFTY BLITZ...

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from USMCM1A1. Show USMCM1A1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    This is what I'm really worried about:

    Defensive Comparison


    Total Yards Per Game Allowed
    • Ravens: 257.8
    • Patriots: 384.5
    Passing Yards Per Game Allowed
    •   Ravens: 156.6
    •   Patriots: 272.2
    Rush Yards Per Game Allowed
    •   Ravens: 101.2
    •   Patriots: 112.2
    Points Per Game Allowed
    •   Ravens: 14.4
    •   Patriots: 24.0
    Third Down Conversion % Allowed
    •   Ravens: 26.6%
    •   Patriots: 54.7%
      As much as some other things, like turnovers and QB play are on our side, man their defense is getting people off the field, and ours has not been.  We'll see how that plays out on Sunday.
     

     

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from sportsbozo1. Show sportsbozo1's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]This is what I'm really worried about: Defensive Comparison Total Yards Per Game Allowed Ravens: 257.8 Patriots: 384.5 Passing Yards Per Game Allowed   Ravens: 156.6   Patriots: 272.2 Rush Yards Per Game Allowed   Ravens: 101.2   Patriots: 112.2 Points Per Game Allowed   Ravens: 14.4   Patriots: 24.0 Third Down Conversion % Allowed   Ravens: 26.6%   Patriots: 54.7%   As much as some other things, like turnovers and QB play are on our side, man their defense is getting people off the field, and ours has not been.  We'll see how that plays out on Sunday.    
    Posted by USMCM1A1[/QUOTE]Did you happen to notice the offenses that the Ravens Defenses had to slow down? The Jets offense stinks,The Broncos Offense is going to improve but they were'nt ready for the Ravens Defense,The Browns don't have an Offense and the Steelers played them with either Batch or Dixon at QB, not exactly the leagues toip offenses in fact I'd say that when the ravens played each of these teams all 4 of them stunk.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from carolinagrad. Show carolinagrad's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Denver 4th in the NFL total offense Orton second in the league in passing Bengals 9th in the NFL in Offense. Having said that i do think we can move the ball particularly with Ed Reed out. I think having two weeks to prepare and playing at home will be the difference. But I think it will be a very close game. The Ravens offensive diversity with Ray Rice and two other good backs coupled with their receivers make this a very difficult game. Flacco really played well when we played them in the regular season last year. He drove the length of the field in the last two minutes only to have his receiver drop the ball. We got  totally dominated in the playoffs which also worries me.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Macrawn. Show Macrawn's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    3rd down conversion against the Pats D is pathetic. 

    The Ravens have potential to shut Brady down. They have done it before. 

    The Pats D, though I really like our future outlook could be vulnerable against a mediocre quarterback who has time in the pocket and some running game to soften them up. 

    The Pats have a tough stretch ahead against some very good teams and they could take some losses. If everyone was in panic mode after a 3-1 start I hate to see what they do after a couple tough losses that could happen. 
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from chrisakawoody. Show chrisakawoody's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    I don't know what to think, now that Moss is gone and Branch is here.  Who woulda' guessed that scenario?

    My brain tells me that the O should be worse equipped w/o Moss, but my heart tells me they will play more like a team...the way they won Super Bowls.

    My brain tells me the Ravens totally owned the Pats in January, but my heart tells me that Welker, Woody, Branch and the three new T/Es can make a difference.

    I like that they are playing at home.  I like that they virtually always win after a bye. I like that Flacco plays poorly on the road. I like that we don't have to worry about a bomb play being called every five offensive downs. I like that the rookies have more experience than they did in the Jets loss.  I like that the rookies got to see the Vikes DBs and LB s miss all those potential picks Monday because they were not playing the ball off of Sanchez and that the Pats DBs will have learned from this and get some picks off of Flacco.  I like that the Pats are coming off a huge victory.  I like that the spoiled fans actually showed some spirit in the last two wins...even down in Miami.  

    I guess I like the Pats to win this, and convincingly.  This is a defining game for the reformulated Pats.  The whole league is waiting for this one. Something tells me the Pats rise to the occasion in a big way.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from DaveNorthShore. Show DaveNorthShore's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    I think we see the game we expected for the playoffs last year - a tough close game with the Pats pulling it out by 3-7 pts at home.  Welker is back (his recent loss definitely negative affected the Pats in playoff game) and the new crop of receivers are better suited to deal with Baltimore's defense than the Moss ony option offense of last year.  As for the Pats D last year's poor defense held Flacco to under 100 yds passing - this year they will do better.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pancakespwn. Show Pancakespwn's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    As long as we can LIMIT Ray Rice we will be fine. Flacco shouldnt be scaring anyone on this team. As well as limiting Boldin and Housh down field plays we will be fine.

    31-21 Pats
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from speaksthetruth99. Show speaksthetruth99's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview : Did you happen to notice the offenses that the Ravens Defenses had to slow down? The Jets offense stinks,The Broncos Offense is going to improve but they were'nt ready for the Ravens Defense,The Browns don't have an Offense and the Steelers played them with either Batch or Dixon at QB, not exactly the leagues toip offenses in fact I'd say that when the ravens played each of these teams all 4 of them stunk.
    Posted by sportsbozo1[/QUOTE]

    did you notice what offenses the Pats played?  Buffalo? Miami? Jets? Cincy?(and you guys gave up 28 points to the Jets, the Ravens gave up 9)
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    what i can remember from the playoff game were the following:

    1) welker was out, so brady was still struggling to find real options
    2) vw was ineffective. even though he was drawing the double team, the double team was setting him right where they wanted him. that said i believe he was not healthy then.
    3) ad thomas was not giving his full effort

    this year...
    first, on offense
    1) no moss but you have a much more versatile receiver replacing him
    2) welker's back and tate seems to be turning out to a good third option
    3) the TEs give tb more options
    4) ellis/woodhead running crew seems more effective than last year

    on defense..
    1) vw seems healthy and has been able to get through the OL a few times this year. he is not giving in easily to the double. i did not see that a lot last year, particularly in the second half
    2) related to the vw comment, the DL is playing better than last year
    3) all defenders will give it their full effort
    4) i believe this year's secondary is better than last year's
    5) all of the above comments on d has been resulting in forced turnovers - turnovers were also missing last year

    and of course...st
    1) excellent return game
    2) excellent blocking against the kicks and punts
    3) result: they may already have achieved this year more good things than the st for all of last year.

    add to that...
    1) bb had two weeks to prepare, which usually is a good thing.

    i believe the table gets turned....the pats by more than a td
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Pats have a terrific offense but the Ravens have a very tough defense.  I don't see the Pats scoring more than 20 points against that D.  Perhaps a special teams score again will produce more.  Key on D will be containing the run and placing Flacco in more 3rd and longs than 3rd and shorts.  Mix it up enough so that he has to be aware of pressure on 3rd down.

    Pats 20 - Ravens 17.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from fourjays30. Show fourjays30's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview : did you notice what offenses the Pats played?  Buffalo? Miami? Jets? Cincy?(and you guys gave up 28 points to the Jets, the Ravens gave up 9)
    Posted by speaksthetruth99[/QUOTE]
    Who did you loose too again?
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from ulsterman37. Show ulsterman37's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    Pats fans are in thier own little world. 3 weeks ago Moss was the greatest of alltime and pats were going to super bowl. Now he stinks and the pats are better without him. HAHAH joke. Stop listen to the locals on radio. Tune into a national station and listen what peeps are saying. You have no chance against the Ravens. I'm betting the house. You think one of the top defenses over the last 10 years is going to be confused by Pats game plan cuz they dont know what to expect? Thats every week for defenses dummies. Balt 34 Pats 13
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from fourjays30. Show fourjays30's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]Pats fans are in thier own little world. 3 weeks ago Moss was the greatest of alltime and pats were going to super bowl. Now he stinks and the pats are better without him. HAHAH joke. Stop listen to the locals on radio. Tune into a national station and listen what peeps are saying. You have no chance against the Ravens. I'm betting the house. You think one of the top defenses over the last 10 years is going to be confused by Pats game plan cuz they dont know what to expect? Thats every week for defenses dummies. Balt 34 Pats 13
    Posted by ulsterman37[/QUOTE]
    Who did you lose to again!
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from ulsterman37. Show ulsterman37's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview : Who did you lose to again!
    Posted by fourjays30[/QUOTE]

    Who are you going to lose to this weekend? And next weekend. I see pats only winning 2 more games till Dec. Check out the schedule.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from newenglanderinexile. Show newenglanderinexile's posts

    Re: Patriots vs. Baltimore Preview

    In two of the four games the Patriots have played, they have gotten touchdowns from the defense and special teams as well as the offense.  This seems like a winning formula to use against the Ravens.

     
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