Pats Chances...Right Now.

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from CaptnFoxboro. Show CaptnFoxboro's posts

    Pats Chances...Right Now.

     The Pats upcoming home games vs Mia/ Buf should allow us to secure Home Field Advantage - which means once the playoffs start the Patriots will only need to win 2 home playoff games to earn a trip to the Super Bowl.

      Right now I'd give us a 90% chance of gaining Home Field and a 70% chance of getting to the SB . 

       I'd give the Ravens an 80% chance of securing the 2nd seed ( Home to Browns / At Cinc ) and a 50% chance of reaching the SB .

    How much do you like the Pats' chances ?
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    Sky's the limit. 100% Champions
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from MacaroniFan. Show MacaroniFan's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I think the Pats will secure the #1 seed and I think they can beat any team in the AFC if during the bye week they prepair well and are hungry. Eye of the tiger Rocky
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from kildog. Show kildog's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    It always comes down to who wants it the most.........kildog
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from JayShizzle45. Show JayShizzle45's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I Honestly feel our biggest challenge is our first playoff game. If we somehow can get that first one, I think it propell us for a long playoff run, getting the bye actually makes it a short run. Time to get back to basics,. 3 games to Glory!

    I remember the only thing I used to worry about was getting a bye. Everything else after that was mute. Give B.B. a bye week and he is in that thang!

    I feel like our biggest threats are Ravens and Steelers and both would represent a bit of a revenge factor and i like that.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dessalines. Show Dessalines's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I kind of agree with JayShizz, we need to get past the first playoff game.  As far as the regular season games that are left, Miami worries me.
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    What is worrying so many fans here, as well as the opinions of all the talking heads, is the "statistical" standings of the Patriots defense.  Yes, they give up GOBS of yardage, but, aren't they keeping the other team out of the endzone enough to give the offense time to score and stay ahead?  I know we all want a D like we saw Monday night in the 49'ers.  Many also point to the Ravens and Pittsburgh defenses as good and they didn't exactly do well against offenses which could not be considered as powerful as the Patriots'.  If the Pats win out and get home field throughout the playoffs, I think BB will have the defense playing at a level that will get them deep into the playoffs and beyond.  You have to go with the confidence BB MUST have in that team. 
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from tompenny. Show tompenny's posts

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    As good as GB, NO, Bal, Pitt and SF. They need to get that playoff monkey off their back as Jay said. That is obvious. If lose 4 playoff games in a row with 3 at home then you have oficially become a regular season wonder and that's it.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from patriots44. Show patriots44's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    What is worrying so many fans here, as well as the opinions of all the talking heads, is the "statistical" standings of the Patriots defense.  Yes, they give up GOBS of yardage, but, aren't they keeping the other team out of the endzone enough to give the offense time to score and stay ahead?  I know we all want a D like we saw Monday night in the 49'ers.  Many also point to the Ravens and Pittsburgh defenses as good and they didn't exactly do well against offenses which could not be considered as powerful as the Patriots'.  If the Pats win out and get home field throughout the playoffs, I think BB will have the defense playing at a level that will get them deep into the playoffs and beyond.  You have to go with the confidence BB MUST have in that team.  Posted by agcsbill
    What happens if the Pats have a Bad Offensive game, in the playofs. Like the last 2 years
     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from JayShizzle45. Show JayShizzle45's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I think Bill brings up a good point about how the Ravens and others havent faird well against teams with lesser offenses, so you would think thats a good sign for us, but the reason teams can defend our all world offense better than others is....here is goes - Predictability.

    I watch every week as inferior teams with  much less fire power find ways to hand around by calling unique plays, running the ball and playaction.

    Some teams with less actually take more chances and they work.

    Case in point, every time I watch Seattle play, I say wow!  Not much talent on offense besides M.Lynch  but they get it done. They fight on every play and Im impressed with that Carrol has done the last 2 years with that team.

    last year they won more playoff games than us. So when you have ol Petey who we were glad to see go making noise, I cant fathom how we arent more successful, and I think it all comes back to us being too arrogant to balance it out and underestimate what great defenses can do to one dimensional teams.


    Lets hope things change this time
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

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    A Pats fan giving props to Pete Carroll?  Never thought I'd see the day... :)
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from jimijazz. Show jimijazz's posts

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    Current odds to WIN Super Bowl below. When you consider that the ROI for San Fran is almost four times what it is on the Patriots I'd have to say that Patriots are over bet. To me the best value is the Saints and best long shot (other than SF) is the NYG.

    Green Bay Packers 1.80 to 1
    New England Patriots 4.00 to 1
    New Orleans Saints 6 to 1
    Baltimore Ravens 11 to 1
    Pittsburgh Steelers 14 to 1
    San Francisco 49ers 15 to 1
    Houston Texans 32 to 1
    Dallas Cowboys 33 to 1
    Atlanta Falcons 34 to 1
    San Diego Chargers 45 to 1
    Denver Broncos 55 to 1
    Philadelphia Eagles 55 to 1
    Detroit Lions 58 to 1
    New York Giants 66 to 1
    New York Jets 66 to 1
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Pats Chances...Right Now.:
     The Pats upcoming home games vs Mia/ Buf should allow us to secure Home Field Advantage - which means once the playoffs start the Patriots will only need to win 2 home playoff games to earn a trip to the Super Bowl.   Right now I'd give us a 90% chance of gaining Home Field and a 70% chance of getting to the SB .     I'd give the Ravens an 80% chance of securing the 2nd seed ( Home to Browns / At Cinc ) and a 50% chance of reaching the SB . How much do you like the Pats' chances ?
    Posted by CaptnFoxboro


    I am pretty sure that if the Patriots have a 70% chance of making the Super Bowl that means that all the other teams have a combined 30% chance.

    Realistically (in my opinion),
    Patriots 30%
    Ravens 25%
    Steelers 20%
    Texans 10%
    Jets 10%
    Broncos 5%

    I give the Patriots the best chance because of home field. I think the Texans have an outside chance because of their running game and defense. I give the Jets that chance because, let's face it, they have (under Ryan) played their best football in the playoffs. I give the Broncos (or whoever takes the AFC West) a slight chance only because all the teams in the AFC have weakness and I think any team who puts together three consecutive good games can come out of the AFC.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from MattC05. Show MattC05's posts

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    In Response to Pats Chances...Right Now.:
     The Pats upcoming home games vs Mia/ Buf should allow us to secure Home Field Advantage - which means once the playoffs start the Patriots will only need to win 2 home playoff games to earn a trip to the Super Bowl.   Right now I'd give us a 90% chance of gaining Home Field and a 70% chance of getting to the SB .     I'd give the Ravens an 80% chance of securing the 2nd seed ( Home to Browns / At Cinc ) and a 50% chance of reaching the SB . How much do you like the Pats' chances ?
    Posted by CaptnFoxboro

    I don't think you understand how math works.  How can the Pats have a 70% chance to make it to the big game, and the Ravens have a 50% chance?
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from FrnkBnhm. Show FrnkBnhm's posts

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    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    Current odds to WIN Super Bowl below. When you consider that the ROI for San Fran is almost four times what it is on the Patriots I'd have to say that Patriots are over bet. To me the best value is the Saints and best long shot (other than SF) is the NYG. Green Bay Packers 1.80 to 1 New England Patriots 4.00 to 1 New Orleans Saints 6 to 1 Baltimore Ravens 11 to 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 14 to 1 San Francisco 49ers 15 to 1 Houston Texans 32 to 1 Dallas Cowboys 33 to 1 Atlanta Falcons 34 to 1 San Diego Chargers 45 to 1 Denver Broncos 55 to 1 Philadelphia Eagles 55 to 1 Detroit Lions 58 to 1 New York Giants 66 to 1 New York Jets 66 to 1
    Posted by jimijazz


    I am not suprised by these. I definitely think the Patriots and Packers are both being over bet. Looking at is specifically as a gambling proposition, you have to like SF at 15 to 1.

    Gamblers obviously like offenses because otherwise how are the Saints that much favored over the Ravens, Steelers, and 49ers?
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from Tomhab. Show Tomhab's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    Do the players get the same time off during the Playoff Bye week as they did the regular season Bye?  The Pats had their worst two performances after the Bye this year and I think it was due to the Players getting three days off.  Anyone know?

    BB was great after the bye prior to the new rule to give the plays time off.  They need to work for two weeks to get ready for the first playoff game if they get the Bye they can't be at the Mall looking for after Christmas sales...
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    Patriots by 8.4 points over Miami works out to about a 90% chance of victory. 
    Patriots by 16.8 points over Buffalo works out to .. forget about it.

    Given a bye week, I'd give the Patriots about a 95% chance of winning their first game.  Nobody in the AFC is significantly better than the Dolphins right now, except the Patriots of course, so I'd give a 90% chance of winning the championship game. 

    Assuming that New England makes it to the Super Bowl, I have New England by 1.7 point over Green Bay and 2.3 points over New Orleans.  San Fran is a 3.1 point underdog.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from jeffab. Show jeffab's posts

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    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    In Response to Pats Chances...Right Now. : I don't think you understand how math works.  How can the Pats have a 70% chance to make it to the big game, and the Ravens have a 50% chance?
    Posted by MattC05



    It's like "Sex Panther" cologne: 60% of the time, it works every time!
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from knoxvillepat. Show knoxvillepat's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I, like others worry about playogg game #1. At this time it looks like that may be the Steelers. Assume everybody involved wins out, they would get the wildcard #1 and play probably at Denver. Well, I don't see Tebow magic working on the Steelers, so they come to New England, unless the Jets beat probably Baltimore, then we would get them. chances there are slim. I like the Pats chances back in Foxboro against Pittsburgh, but still will be hard-nosed game. Big Ben will probably be limping the rest of the season and this will be a factor. This said, I thin kwe end up with Baltimore in AFCCC game here and again another test. I feel good here if we can limit Ray Rice and make Flacco beat us, then I see that as a "W". Brings us to Super Bowl and rematch from 96 against Packers. Good Luck here as this could be highest scoring SB in history. Last team with the ball wins.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from sheldong. Show sheldong's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    I, like others worry about playogg game #1. At this time it looks like that may be the Steelers. Assume everybody involved wins out, they would get the wildcard #1 and play probably at Denver. Well, I don't see Tebow magic working on the Steelers, so they come to New England, unless the Jets beat probably Baltimore, then we would get them. chances there are slim. I like the Pats chances back in Foxboro against Pittsburgh, but still will be hard-nosed game. Big Ben will probably be limping the rest of the season and this will be a factor. This said, I thin kwe end up with Baltimore in AFCCC game here and again another test. I feel good here if we can limit Ray Rice and make Flacco beat us, then I see that as a "W". Brings us to Super Bowl and rematch from 96 against Packers. Good Luck here as this could be highest scoring SB in history. Last team with the ball wins.
    Posted by knoxvillepat


    If everyone wins their remaing two games, it would be Pat #1, Balt #2, Hous #3, Denver #4, Pitt #5 and Jets #6.  Baltimore beats out Houston for #2 because they beat them in head to head -- the first criterion.

    So, if Pitt beats Denver we will play them if Houston beats the Jets.  Otherwise we would play the Jets.  If Denver wins, we play them unless the Jets beat Houston.

    In any event, the Jets don't play Baltimore in the wild card game (assuming both Baltimore and Houston win out).

    Also, it may not even be the Jets for #6.  If they lose on Saturday and Oakland, Tennessee, San Diego and Cincinatti all win, there will be a four way tie at 8-7, with Cincy at 9-6 (but they have to play Baltimore in the final game).
     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now. : What happens if the Pats have a Bad Offensive game, in the playofs. Like the last 2 years
    Posted by patriots44

    What "if" the Pats have a GREAT defensive game and win 3 - 0?  We can what if all we want on this topic.  In a big picture scenario, you either like their chances or not.  If you limit the scenario to something like "if the defense needs to play well because the offense isn't.", does that diminish their chances?  Obviously!
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Sam-Adams. Show Sam-Adams's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    I can see the Pats going to Indy. I'll tell you the only team that worries me a little right now is the Chargers. I know.....laugh laugh but these guys seem to be the only ones heading in the right direction and if they make it they could be trouble. It's good they have an idiot for a head coach, he reminds me of Henry Winkler in Waterboy.
     
    Big Ben's injury takes them out and the Ravens and Jets just don't have what it takes to win a shootout with Brady.

    Once they get to Indy my optimisim is greatly diminished. Brees and/or Rogers will feast on thissecondary and both offenses have what it takes to win a shootout.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    I Honestly feel our biggest challenge is our first playoff game. If we somehow can get that first one, I think it propell us for a long playoff run, getting the bye actually makes it a short run. Time to get back to basics,. 3 games to Glory! I remember the only thing I used to worry about was getting a bye. Everything else after that was mute. Give B.B. a bye week and he is in that thang! I feel like our biggest threats are Ravens and Steelers and both would represent a bit of a revenge factor and i like that.
    Posted by JayShizzle45


    Great point Jay. Winning the 1st one is key.

    However, BB had a bye week last year, and didn't fare so well. The only reason I want a bye this year is to rest some guys up.

    As it stands today, I believe the Pats have a greater than 50% chance to make it to the SB. I think they can beat anyone in the AFC, or be beat by the teams that will make the playoffs in the AFC as well. If TB can string 3 great games together and the defense holds, this will be a fun ride.
     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from chrisakawoody. Show chrisakawoody's posts

    Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.

    In Response to Re: Pats Chances...Right Now.:
    I kind of agree with JayShizz, we need to get past the first playoff game.  As far as the regular season games that are left, Miami worries me.
    Posted by Dessalines

    XEROX.

     
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