Prediction.........

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Prediction.........

    The versatility of Aaron Hernandez will help cushion the loss of Kevin Faulk.  He lined up in the back field quite a bit at Florida and while he doesn't have a ton of experience as a between the tackles back, he does have value on, inside delays and shuffle passes and should do some damage catching the ball out of the back field, especially on third down. I think you'll see BB and BO use some creativity to get the ball in this kid's hands as his combo of size, speed, quickness and athleticism will create mismatches all over the field.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from MatildaWanna. Show MatildaWanna's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    In Response to Re: Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]Bill O'Brien hasn't used any creativity in 19 games now... what makes you think he's going to start using any now?
    Posted by manowar333[/QUOTE]
    Bill Obrien couldnt hit water if he fell out of a boat. TO say that he suks would be an understatement
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from Rockdog1293000. Show Rockdog1293000's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    mb I haven't seen you around much here, but I must praise you on your analysis on Hernandez way back in Feb. You were 100% correct. Hopefully Brady targets Hernandez more and Moss less (the completion percentage for Moss in terrible and I believe Hernandez is 6/7 or 7/8. 


    In Response to Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]The versatility of Aaron Hernandez will help cushion the loss of Kevin Faulk.  He lined up in the back field quite a bit at Florida and while he doesn't have a ton of experience as a between the tackles back, he does have value on, inside delays and shuffle passes and should do some damage catching the ball out of the back field, especially on third down. I think you'll see BB and BO use some creativity to get the ball in this kid's hands as his combo of size, speed, quickness and athleticism will create mismatches all over the field.
    Posted by mbeaulieu07[/QUOTE]
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from wfdog. Show wfdog's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    Hey MB thanks for the positive spin on the Faulk injury! However, since Aaron Hernandez is really built more like a Receiver than a Tight end, do you think he can also pick up the blitzes coming in on Brady like Faulk did?
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from longhairjoe. Show longhairjoe's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    I wish they would throw the rock to Hernandez at least 10 or 12 times a game.
    Rally get Hernandez acclimated in the offense.
    and "Gronk" as well.
    On 3rd and long, one would think they would use a big  strong athletic guy like "Gronk" to sustain the drive. Throw Gronk the rock on 3rd and long.
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from longhairjoe. Show longhairjoe's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    Well, put it this way, by the time it's week 10, Gronk and Hernandez should be averaging 5 or 6 receptions a game each. If NOT, something is definitely WRONG.
    Split those plays up that would utilize Faulk to Gronk and Hernandez.
    any defender one on one with Gronk would be a mismatch, Gronk would have the advantage 90% of the time. He's 6'6", 260 lb. It would have to be someone like Brain Urlacher to match up with Gronk.
    But, one would think Bill O'Brien is too mentally challeged to figure that one out.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from barcolounga. Show barcolounga's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    In Response to Re: Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]Well, put it this way, by the time it's week 10, Gronk and Hernandez should be averaging 5 or 6 receptions a game each. If NOT, something is definitely WRONG. Split those plays up that would utilize Faulk to Gronk and Hernandez. any defender one on one with Gronk would be a mismatch, Gronk would have the advantage 90% of the time. He's 6'6", 260 lb. It would have to be someone like Brain Urlacher to match up with Gronk. But, one would think Bill O'Brien is too mentally challeged to figure that one out.
    Posted by longhairjoe[/QUOTE]
    I think you may see Edelman pick up a few of Faulks plays. He was a running QB in college and although he won't block like Faulk he may provide some interesting football. That is if Brady would stop locking down on Moss and spread the wealth.
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from reegz04. Show reegz04's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    What about this dude Woodhead..Seems like he has played a similar role in college and what limited time he saw in NY..Rex was high on the kid, but had to cut him to make more room..The Pats tend to use undersized players better anyways, and really bring out their skillsets.. I could see the Pats trying him out a little maybe this weekend against Buffalo..
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from BubbaInHawaii. Show BubbaInHawaii's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    In Response to Re: Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]I wish they would throw the rock to Hernandez at least 10 or 12 times a game. Rally get Hernandez acclimated in the offense. and "Gronk" as well. On 3rd and long, one would think they would use a big  strong athletic guy like "Gronk" to sustain the drive. Throw Gronk the rock on 3rd and long.
    Posted by longhairjoe[/QUOTE]


    I sort of agree. I don't think it should be dictated how many touches any one receiver gets. Brady should pass to whoever is open - regardless of who the receiver is.  That being said, Gronk and Hernandez should open more possibilities for Brady.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Prediction.........


    MB,
    Nice to see a positive post here, and couldn't agree with you more. Hernandez did a lot in the Florida offense, and I have seem him line up in the backfield on many an occasion and slip out for a pass, or take a shufflepass or pitch from Tebow like it was a run play. 

    Hernandez at 6'1", 245lbs is much larger than Faulk, so he should be able to help in blitz pickup/blocking assignments. I don't think he has yet matured as a reliable blocker, but this was the part of his game we all knew he needed to improve when we drafted him. He should be adequate blocking when needed. 

    When we heard Faulk was out, a lot of us looked at Woodhead, Morris, Edelman as the logical replacements. But, like you pointed out MB, I think Hernandez is much better suited in the "Faulk" role than any of those 3. Us taking him in the 4th is proving to be a draft coup. We need some more of those by the way....


     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Pats7393. Show Pats7393's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    IF big IF, we had someone calling O plays who could be creative I would not be worried about lossing Kevin because as mb mentioned there's Hernandez and also Edelman but does anyone thing O calling for dummies will be that creative?  O'Brian's play book is right out of Ofensive calling for dummies.

    Not only hernandez and Edelman, Taylor would provide that veteran pass protection or Morris.  These guys do a good job at it and will need to be that guy.

    Regardless what happens, I just don't have confidence in Billy to get creative with personnel and formations.  Could you imagine a shotgun two back formation with Edelman and Hernandez one on each side of brady? Too many weapons on this team. 

    Does anyone know much of the RB they got from the Jets?  From what I read he could be a nice 3rd down style back but can he pass protect?  That's where Kevin made his money more so than his great hands.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Prediction.........


    The RB we got from the Jets (Danny Woodhead) could be a very productive 3rd down or more back. He is small at 5'9", 200lbs, but only a few pounds lighter than Faulk, so roughly the same size. I have not seem him pass protect in college or while with the Jets, so the jury is out there. 

    he is ultra fast and quick, so he could be a nice compliment to this offense IF used properly. 

    Pats7393....A lot of folks here have criticized O'Brien's playcalling, me being one of them. As I think about the Jets game in particular, I now wonder if it was less about the playcalling and strategy, and more about the execution (or ability for guys to get open, and Brady locating them effectively) ? ....

    O'Brien's plays do seem to be transparent to a defense...If for a moment we considered an offensive genius like a Weis or perhaps Martz as our OC, would the outcomes from either game this year or last be that much different? This is the question I struggle with as like most, I like to cast the blame on O'Brien.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    In Response to Re: Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]The RB we got from the Jets (Danny Woodhead) could be a very productive 3rd down or more back. He is small at 5'9", 200lbs, but only a few pounds lighter than Faulk, so roughly the same size. I have not seem him pass protect in college or while with the Jets, so the jury is out there.  he is ultra fast and quick, so he could be a nice compliment to this offense IF used properly. Pats7393....A lot of folks here have criticized O'Brien's playcalling, me being one of them. As I think about the Jets game in particular, I now wonder if it was less about the playcalling and strategy, and more about the execution (or ability for guys to get open, and Brady locating them effectively) ?.... O'Brien's plays do seem to be transparent to a defense...If for a moment we considered an offensive genius like a Weis or perhaps Martz as our OC, would the outcomes from either game this year or last be that much different? This is the question I struggle with as like most, I like to cast the blame on O'Brien.
    Posted by PatsLifer[/QUOTE]

    PatsLifer,
    I've thought about this myself.  I'm wondering if the execution issue has more to do with un-imaginative, predictable play calling, lack of any running threat or poor decision making by Brady and/or continually forcing the ball into Moss etc....the easy answer is, a combo of all three.    IMO, the offense seems to run far more efficiently when Brady targets the open receiver vs. trying to go over the top regularly to Moss.  No doubt the long ball is exciting and they hit on one big time in the first half, but the second half was a different story as Moss was targeted 5 times, resulting in 0 catches and 2 INT's.
     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from boomerst3. Show boomerst3's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    If Woodhead is as good as some hope he is, why did the Jets get rid of him? They do not seem to be so deep in that area.
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from matty37111. Show matty37111's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    I feel like I do this on all of my posts, but when the Patriots were winning Super Bowls and being serious contenders year after year, Brady was hitting all of his WR.

    Granted the defense was better and more experienced and that had alot to do with the winning seasons, but I distinctly remember Brady saying he would throw the ball to whoever was open. Now it seems that the offense is in such a one dimensional state of dumping it to Wes or going deep to Moss that they forgot how unpredictable the offense was when Givens was the #1 one week, then Brown, then Branch, then Patten, then Faulk etc.
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from mbeaulieu07. Show mbeaulieu07's posts

    Re: Prediction.........

    In Response to Re: Prediction.........:
    [QUOTE]mb I haven't seen you around much here, but I must praise you on your analysis on Hernandez way back in Feb. You were 100% correct. Hopefully Brady targets Hernandez more and Moss less (the completion percentage for Moss in terrible and I believe Hernandez is 6/7 or 7/8.  In Response to Prediction......... :
    Posted by Rockdog1293000[/QUOTE]

    Rockdog,
    Thanks!  I agree with spreading the ball around, if Moss is the open guy, great, hit him, but if he isn't don't force the ball into him.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Prediction.........


    MB and others,

    yeah, i'm trying like heck to understand the drop off from 1st half to 2nd half. I posted some stats on another board, that are relevant to this discussion. 

    What i can't find, and not sure even if it is available is stats to look at playcalling, or the amount times the Pats run vs. pass between halves and efficiency in each. 

    what i did find (easy to locate) is Brady's situational stats from 2009, which I think are telling, as the 2nd half lapse has continued into 2010. Of course this is a different team, but there are some same personnel, and the strategy hasn't changed too much with O'Brien at the helm. 

    I look at it as a 3 pronged problem first off....offensive execution led by Brady, O'Brien strategy and playcalling and Defense. 

    Consider prong 1....
    - 1st half of games compared to 2nd half of games, Brady's QB rating drops by 8 points in the 2nd half of games, TD's drop and but so do interceptions. His total pass yards from 1st half to 2nd half declines by roughly 23%, favoring the 1st half. He has more fumbles in 2nd halves, and plays much better in terms of QB rating when he is playing ahead in games (104 rating) vs. trying to come from behind (87 rating). 
    Also, when comparing home vs. away, Brady's QB rating goes from 109 at home to 81 on the road. He is 10% better at home than away in terms of completion percentage. He threw 7 more interception last year on the road vs. at home. 

    Trying to find any stats that would support prongs 2 & 3....anything that anyone has would be helpful. I lot of us are saying things drop off in the 2nd half, and we can clearly see that by the lack of points being scored, points being scored by other teams, etc....above is just a snapshot into the offensive leaders execution in terms of 1st vs. 2nd half...
     
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