Call me an optimist...but if the Patriots remain reasonably healthy this season, I see no reason why they can't repeat last year's 14-2 record.

     Here are ten (10) predictions from Mike Reiss, with my comments interlaced therein, in bold black:

Ten predictions for the 2011 New England Patriots season to file away and laugh at come early January:

1. The Patriots will win 12 games. With a revamped defense and multifaceted offense, the Patriots are positioned among the NFL's elite once again. They know they can't count on the defense to force 38 turnovers again, but with a pressure-oriented approach, they should dictate play on a more regular basis and generate more pressure. Quarterback Tom Bradywon't win the MVP award, but he'll turn in another solid season.
RESPONSE: The Pats forced 28 turnovers last season, not 38. If Tom Brady stays healthy, I see no reason why the Pats can't win more than 12 games, particularly if some of the other predictions made by Mike below come true.

2. Seven sacks for Albert Haynesworth.The way the Patriots plan to rotate defensive linemen this season, Haynesworth might not even play 50 percent of the snaps. The approach could be perfect for him, keeping him fresh and allowing him to turn it on when he is on the field. Haynesworth's career high for sacks was 8.5 in 2008 when he was playing for the Tennessee Titans, and playing for a contract.
RESPONSE: I agree that Haynesworth will be an excellent addition to the "D". But, 7 sacks? If he does that, I'll be doing back-flips, and the Pats will win more than 12 games.

3. Fifty catches for Chad Ochocinco.Over his 10-year career, Ochocinco has averaged 75 receptions per season. He won't hit that mark because of a combination of factors -- learning the offense, struggles to separate from defensive backs and the Patriots' style to spread the ball around. A 50-catch season would be his lowest total since his 28 in his rookie campaign
RESPONSE: At age 33, Ocho's skills appear to be vastly diminished. A 50 catch year from him won't help the team improve. If he doesn't start contributing by game two, he may be released. 

4. Contract extension for Jerod Mayo.The fourth-year linebacker, whose deal extends through the 2012 season, will ink a long-term contract sometime before the end of the team's off week in late October. Mayo is primed to build on his first Pro Bowl berth and become one of the game's stars at the position, and he's everything Bill Belichick wants his players to be. The Patriots have the maneuverability to make it happen now, so why wait?
RESPONSE: Agreed. It makes no sense to let contract issues with him linger.

5. Randy Moss will not play for the team.While Moss almost surely would come out of retirement if the Patriots called him, it would take an unexpected run of injuries for such a scenario to be considered. And even then, Belichick would hesitate, in part because of the off-field volatility that would come with such a move. The closest Moss gets to the field this season is as a spectator.RESPONSE:  Much depends on how Deion Branch and Ochocincho perform.

6. Eighty catches for Aaron Hernandez. If he stays healthy, the second-year tight end is in position to have a monster season. His presence in the 2-minute offense, plus regular packages, means he should be on the field for most of the offensive snaps. Outside of Wes Welker, who said he is in the best condition of his career, he is on the verge of becoming Brady's favorite target.
RESPONSE: Agreed.If he stays healthy, I'm expecting big things from Hernandez.

7. Splitting with the Jets. In the much anticipated rivalry between the Patriots and New York Jets, each team will hold its ground at home -- the Patriots winning in Week 5 and the Jets evening the score in Week 10. In a side note, Welker will pass on speaking with the media in the week leading up to a game.
RESPONSE: I see the Patriots as the better team. If they beat the Jets in week 5, I expect them to sweep.  

8. Julian Edelman -- 2 punt returns for touchdowns.If he stays healthy, the third-year receiver will be recognized as one of the league's more dangerous returners on both kickoffs and punts. Just a hunch that he'll take two back to the house. Edelman is dangerous with the ball in his hands and will be an upgrade over Brandon Tate, who declined rapidly from the midpoint of the 2010 season. 
RESPONSE: Agreed. Edelman is an excellent punt returner. But, I'd like to see him contribute a little more as a receiver. 

9. Lonie Paxton again won't be forgotten. Three years later, the Patriots still haven't decisively filled the void created when Paxton, the reliable long snapper, signed with the Broncos as a free agent. Snappers aren't talked about unless they cost their team points (or a game), and the Patriots enter the season with rookie free agent Danny Aiken, who spent training camp with the Bills. It's risky.

RESPONSE: I disagree. No way that BB would allow this sort of problem. He must have full confidence that Aiken can do the job.

10. Playoff questions will be answered. After losing their first playoff game in each of the past two seasons, the Patriots can't answer one of their biggest questions until January. Their new look on defense, coupled with better offensive line play, should help them get over the playoff hump. This team will be in the mix to win a Super Bowl ring in Indianapolis
RESPONSE: Agreed. But, for this to happen, the Pats must win their division. I expect the Jets to be their main competition this season. If they win the AFC East, they'll earn a bye week, and will break their playoff losing streak. I'll go a step further...if Brady stays healthy, Haynesworth helps, Hernandez has a big year, and the Pats can get 60 or more catches from either Deion Branch or Ochocincho, the Pats will win the AFC championship...and advance to Indy. Surprised that Reiss didn't comment about the Pats' rushing attack. I'm excited about the Patriots' stable of RBs. But, their secondary and OL must pull their weight.  

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/6938508/ten-predictions-new-england-patriots-season

One of the Pats' biggest problem isn't even on their schedule.

Outside of having to play each other twice, Bitchburgh and Baltimore have a relative tulip-walk through the schedule (apart from New England and New Jersey, respectively). One or both of those teams could easily win 13 or 14 games. That leaves San Dago in the woeful AFC Worst, and of course, New Jersey, as New England's primary competition for a potential bye in the playoffs (unless Kerry Collins pulls several large rabbits out of his jock).

At the risk of putting the cart before the wh*res, I'm thinking that puts a disproportionate bullseye on the week two matchup against San Dago in Foxboro. We're hearing all the usual "on paper" arguments about the Chargers (and where the hell is jbolt?), but early in the season is usually the best time to get them, but I'm wondering even now if 12 wins (although I'm only predicting 11) will be enough to get one of the top two seeds.

Then again, maybe all of this is premature blue-skying and we'll all be in here wondering what went wrong Tuesday morning.






(p.s. -- apparently you can't say whoors)

 BB has said that in order to play good defense you need an effective pass rush and good coverage in the secondary. Both of those elements have been missing in recent years. I can see where Haynesworth and Ellis should help the pass rush, but I'm not so sure about the secondary. We've lost 2 safeties and I'm not convinced yet that that's addition by subtraction. Bodden's ability to stay off the DL also seems critical. The offense will be fine but the defense stills appears questionnable to me.

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:


     True. But, don't forget that the Pats offense is the best in the AFC. It's a lot easier playing the game when you're playing with a lead.

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:


    I really don't see the Pats' schedule being all that tough, Mike. But, you are correct about the first two games being potentially dangerous. Miami can be  tough at home, and the Chargers have, at least on paper, an explosive offense.

     That said, I don't see the Pats losing on opening night to the Dolphins. As you correctly pointed out, the Chargers have started slow for the past several years...so I like the Pats' chances against them at home. After that, the Pats have what appear to be two very winable road games...at Buffalo and at Oakland.

     Next comes the meat of the Pats' schedule: two home games against the Jets and Cowboys, at Pittsburgh, home against the injury plagued Giants, on the road against the Jets, home against the Chiefs, Philly on the road, and home against Indy.

     The final four games of the year appear to be, relatively speaking, cupcakes. Two road games, at Washington and Denver, followed by home games against the Dolphins and Bills. 

     I predict that the Pats will go 4-0, before facing off against the Jets....and will win their final four games. If they can do that, they're a cinch to win at least 12 games. They'll probably need to win at least 13 to win their division, and clinch a bye.

     Here's their schedule: http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots  

Texas Pat you Koolaider.

Agree with responses Texpat. Would love to see Edelman do his Welker-lite imatation on offense. I am sticking with 13-3 and homefield throughout the playoffs. One major problem. I;m in Brazil during the NFL playoffs and I doubt the got the dish network down there so I might need to monitor the game threads on the Ipad.......I can't complain, but some times I still do....

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:


     There are a lot better things to watch in Brazil than a bunch of dinosaur-like sweaty guys, wearing helmuts. Just ask Tom Brady...LOL!!!

19-0

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:


LOL. he always refers to some around here as kool-aid guzzlers, now you call him one.

Hilarous

Last time I was in the southern hemisphere the Pats went to the Super Bowl (2008).

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:


     Champ, a/k/a Glass Joe...a guy who is too much of a coward to give straight answers to questions, misrepresents and lies, and refers to anyone who in any way criticizes the Patriots as a troll...calls me a koolaid-guzzler?? 

     You're right, Kansas...that is hilarious!!    

I see that PATS going 12 and 4 if we all Drink the Kool -aid and Randy Moss Returns....   

13-3 at worst, I want 19-0.

Yes, I drink the koolaid. Always have, always will.

This team can get it done, superbowl baby.

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:

 It is also true that you can't get the lead when you can't get the defense off the field. Weren't we last in the league in stopping 3rd down conversions last year?

In Response to Re: Predictions on 2011 Patriots:

2011 Patriots = Superbowl Champs!!!

it's the first week so perhaps teams are still trying to shake off some rust. however, if this week was any indication, i have to say that 16-0 is very achievable.

my biggest concern if at all is the interior OL (right side), but only against bal (ngata will hard to stop), which the pats won't be playing in the reg season.

pats front 7 will eat up sanchez; with a better backfield, pats o should overrun jets d
bills could be a handfu but not good enough to beat the pats
mia is the only team i have not seen but i do not think they beat the pats

colts without manning is pathetic
pitt suddenly looks old; pats owned them even before getting old

kcc is suddenly ordinary; and i believe they will stay that way
oak is oak
sdc is racking up injuries. also believe they were overrated before the injuries
den is also trying to figure things out

phi OL does not stand a chance vs pats DL
dallas OL does a little better but still will not stand up to the pats DL. romo gets rattled into the same mistakes he made today
speaking of getting rattled, it would be worse for eli
interestingly, the biggest challenge could be from was. unfortunately for them, albert will be relentless

the road to the sb will be through bal. i believe unless the pats OL excels at paving the way between tackles for a good running game, it will be hard to beat bal. hopefully, canon, mankins, ridley and bjge will get it done. we will eventually see.

Pats go 11-5, jets go 8-8.

13-3 dont care about 16-0 19-0 BS

Brady gets 37 TD
Haynesworth 4.5 sacks
Ocho 45 catches
Yes to a Mayo contract extension
No Moss
Split the Jests
A Bomb 72 catches
Edelman 0 to the house
LS wont be as bad a Reiss wants us to believe
Sweep in the playoffs and beat the Green Bay Packers 37 - 28

I won't add much if anything to the predictions, I'd rather speak to what has prevented us from advancing the last two seasons and if frankly if you back to our undeafeated seasons and before...My personal feeling is that our scheme on both sides of the ball is at the heart of why we haven't won a Superbowl since clock killin Cory Dillion pounded the Colt's into submission in the AFC champoinship game...

Offense;
1) We've morphed into a finesse team and with that our inabilty to keep Brady clean against teams with a good pass rushes have led to our demise (Colts, Giants, Ravens & Jets). It all about tendencies how many times have we thrown the ball on 3 and 2 or gone 3 and out with less than 3 minutes to go in a playoff game with the lead without even attempting a run play? So while I agree that our offense is stout and will once again feast on teams that lack the personal to utelize the Rex Defense...if we are to go deep and be a legit superbowl team IMHO we must devise a game plan to break the Rex defensive code and my take is you do so by pounding the rock and I'd also like to see us use the 2 and 3 tightend packages! 
       />Patriots Strength: mulitple weapons and the games best QB..
       />Patriots Achillies....lack of a true power running game...

Defense;
2) Bend but don't break simply hasn't worked...Perhaps it's due to personnal but if we're to be a legit Superbowl team we must reverse a now almost 5 year trend and that's our defenses inability to get off the field on 3rd downs and hold teams to feild goals in the Red Zone...The scheme is part of the problem and our lack of a pass rush or rather being able to presuure the QB without needing to send more guys than they can block is our achillies...I'm also not a big fan of playing the corners 5 to 10 yards off the recievers with the "cover 2" safties over the top...

           />Patriots Stregnth; Playing with a large lead....
           />Patriots Achilles; getting pressure on the opposing QB

10-6

I believe this team has the ability to win it all this season.  I see 13-3 regular season.  I think the new defense will need time to jell.  They will struggle for the first few games so I predict 3-1 in the first 4 games.  I see splitting with the Jets and one loss coming from an unexpected team such as Buffalo.   The defense will be strong going into the playoffs as typical of BB lead teams getting better as the season progresses.  The offense has a couple of issues with the OL and the receivers not on the same page with Brady.  This will lead to a couple of close games early on.  The offense will be clicking later in the season.
I agree a good running game and an attacking defense will be what wins the superbowl.