Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

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    Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    With rookie camp right around the corner, I figured it’d be a good time to try and forecast what we can potentially expect from each player heading into the 2010 season (assuming the players are healthy). 

     

    *PLEASE FEEL FREE TO AGREE OR DISAGREE*

     

    22- CB Devin McCourty:

     

    What the scouting reports say:  He has a ton of game experience is tough, physical, smart, fast and quick and has shut-down potential in both man and zone schemes.  He also profiles as a potential pro-bowl special team player.

     

    2010 Projection:  I think he projects as atleast their #3 CB, potentially their #2 and should give them great production on most all special teams, especially as a potential return man and gunner.  45 TACK- 2 INT- 2 FF

      

    42- TE Rob Gronkowski:

     

    What the scouting reports say: Great size/speed combo, profiles as a good dual purpose TE with the ability to dominate as a blocker and stretch the seam and create match up problems in the red zone as a receiver.  He had great production in 2008 47-672-10.

     

    2010 Projection:  While he didn’t play in 2009 due to a back injury, he’ll have the opportunity to come in and play right away due to the lack of NFL caliber TE’s on the NE roster.  Learning from a true pro like Alge Crumpler can only help to accelerate his acclimation.  Early on, I think he provides great value as a blocker and red zone target while the rest of his game catches up.  25 REC- 325 YDS- 4 TD

      

    53- OLB/DE Jermaine Cunningham:

     

    What the scouting reports say:  Athletic, tough and consistent defender that plays with a great motor, has a good burst off the edge and uses his hands well.  Decent production in the SEC with 33 TFL and 18.5 sacks.

     
    2010 Projection:  Due to the lack of quality edge players on the team, he may have the opportunity to impact from day one. I think he’ll see consistent playing time as part of the OLB rotation and also play on special teams.  25 TACK- 5 SACKS- 1 FF 


    62- ILB Brandon Spikes
    :

     

    What the scouting reports say:  Great leadership ability and size for the position, tough and physical at the POA and great against the run.  Has good instincts and awareness and looks to have decent ability and ball skills in coverage (6 career INT’s, 4 returned for TD).  

     2010 Projection:  Has the opportunity to start from day 1 opposite Mayo and would be an immediate impact at the ILB position.  He should at least provide value as a 2 down run stuffer early on and has the ability to develop into a 3 down backer with is ability in coverage.  55 TACK- 1 INT- 1 SACK- 1 FF 

    90- WR Taylor Price:
     

    What the scouting reports say: 
    Good size, great speed and athleticsim and was underutilized in college.  Tough, competitive, hard working kid with a lot of upside and potential as a vertical thread.
     

    2010 Projection
    :
      Will join Edelman and Tate on the list of talented young receivers in Foxboro and will likely compete with Tate for reps as the # 4 along side Randy, Julian and Tory.  15 REC- 225 YDS- 1 TD
      

    113- TE Aaron Hernandez:
     


    What the scouting reports say:
    Fast, quick, strong and athletic TE prospect with great versatility and ability after the catch.

     
    2010 Projection:  I think this kid will impact from day one, as mentioned above he has the skill set to be utilized in a variety of formations and alignments and could develop into a big play threat for TB and make a killing out of the slot.  The loss of Welker and any sort of productive TE opens the door for a potential big year.  40 REC- 520 YDS- 5 TDS 

    The Rest:
     

    I think Mesko will prove his worth at their new #1 punter and both Deadrick and Weston could potentially see some time in the DE/DT rotation.

    My assumed catch totals per player below, this nets out to 390 (last year TB completed 390 passes):

    WR's
    Randy Moss- 80
    Julian Edelman- 60
    Torry Holt- 50
    Brandon Tate- 25
    Taylor Price- 15
    Sam Aiken- 10

    TE's
    Alge Crumpler- 20
    Rob Gronkowski- 25
    Aaron Hernandez- 40

    RB's
    Kevin Faulk- 35
    Sammy Morris- 15
    Laurence Maroney- 10
    Fred Taylor- 5

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from SLDubbs. Show SLDubbs's posts

    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Well I hope that those Stats will turn out that way, I don't think the Patriots have ever hit on their 5 picks or so so well before. I think at least one of these players will be a bust, just thinking realisticly
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    65 receptions from the TE position is high, I doubt Cunningham will see the field that much, especially if Burgess is signed.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    65 receptions from the TE position is high, I doubt Cunningham will see the field that much, especially if Burgess is signed.
    Posted by HRK103


    The toughest part of this exercise was trying to determine how many receptions would go to the TE's based on their previous history.  At the same time, I don't think they've ever had this much TE talent at the postion at one time.  I do agree though, I have 85 total receptions between the three but it wouldn't shock to me to see them total 65 or so total.

    Burgess may take up some of his field time and I'll change my projections if he's resigned.  Outside of TBC and potentially Burgess, there isn't a lot to compete with on the roster unless Crable is finally able to stay healthy and busts out. 
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Well I hope that those Stats will turn out that way, I don't think the Patriots have ever hit on their 5 picks or so so well before. I think at least one of these players will be a bust, just thinking realisticly
    Posted by SLDubbs


    I don't disagree, tough to project who the bust would be though.  At the same time, I didn't exactly project rookie of the year type numbers for any of the players.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    McCourty: special teamer to start the year, maybe in the nickel mid-season.  Kick returner? 

    Gronkowski:  I can buy the projection.

    Spikes:  Starter by game 4.  I'll take the over on the # of tackles.
     
    Cunningham:  I too think that there's a vet on the way to teach him the ropes, his conversion may take some time. 

    Price:  While I think that's a reasonable expectation for catches, I'll say less.  

    Hernandez:  Bit high, think he has less catches.  I'm not fully sure the Pats know how to utilize tight ends or if they care to.     

    Less catches for Holt, more for Tate.  Crumpler will not break 20 catches.   

     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    I can see Gronkowski being more successful at first inside the redzone where as Hernandez will be more of a 20 to 20 yardline type of receiver.  I think Hernandez will take some time adjusting to running NFL routes at first.  Gronkowski will take time shaking off the rust of not playing for a year.  I expect them to make a bigger impact the second half of the season.  You're right mbeaulie Alge Crumpler will do wonders for these two.

    I think Brandon Spikes will have the most impact.  I could see him making 80 tackles this year.  For being slow he seems to get his fair share of interceptions and running the back for TD's. 

    As far as McCourty I think he'll first make most contributions on special teams while working on being the nickel corner.  Hopefully by the end of the season he is pushing Bodden and Butler for a starting spot.  I like our future though at corner with Butler and now McCourty. 

    With Cunningham I'm not sure what to expect with him.  He could get a lot of playing time because of our depth at OLB unless we pick up another veteran.  He has to adjust to a new position so it may take some time.

    Hopefully Taylor Price could pick up a few things regarding running routes from Tory Holt.  Holt is the best in the business at running routes so he will work wonders for Price, Brandon Tate and make Edelman better.  If healthy he could get 20-30 catches.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    McCourty: special teamer to start the year, maybe in the nickel mid-season.  Kick returner?  Gronkowski:   I can buy the projection. Spikes:   Starter by game 4.  I'll take the over on the # of tackles.   Cunningham:   I too think that there's a vet on the way to teach him the ropes, his conversion may take some time.  Price:   While I think that's a reasonable expectation for catches, I'll say less.   Hernandez:   Bit high, think he has less catches.  I'm not fully sure the Pats know how to utilize tight ends or if they care to.      Less catches for Holt, more for Tate.  Crumpler will not break 20 catches.   
    Posted by BrooklineRob


    I initially wanted to put 70-75, so I'd agree. 

    I don't think Hernandez is a traditional TE, so I think more often than not he'll be spread out wide, in the slot out line up in the backfield, I think this versatility will allow him to be more productive.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    McCourty: special teamer to start the year, maybe in the nickel mid-season.  Kick returner?  Gronkowski:   I can buy the projection. Spikes:   Starter by game 4.  I'll take the over on the # of tackles.   Cunningham:   I too think that there's a vet on the way to teach him the ropes, his conversion may take some time.  Price:   While I think that's a reasonable expectation for catches, I'll say less.   Hernandez:   Bit high, think he has less catches.  I'm not fully sure the Pats know how to utilize tight ends or if they care to.      Less catches for Holt, more for Tate.  Crumpler will not break 20 catches.   
    Posted by BrooklineRob
    Just based on skill set I think that McCourty will replace Wilhite as the Nickel back and that Wilhite moves to the dime package. He also will lead the team in special teams play both as a KR/PR and as an edge rusher on punts and field goal attempts. His specialty as a DB is that there is no such a thing as YAC against him,his average yardage per catch allowed was 2.75 yards per catch,and that my friends is not very much yardage per catch. Also for all of the naysayers don't sell any of the tree team players short ! These guys all played for associates of BB: Deaderick,Spikes,Cunningham,Hernandez, McCourty and Larsen and as players from those teams that BB has affiliations with they have a working knowledge of how his schemes are run,translation they already have elapsed the learning curve necessary too play immediately on a BB coached team. I see Hernandez as the pick of the litter as far receiving TE's are concerned this kid has serious ball catching skills and was the go to guy for Tebow last year. Spikes will get a lot of reps at the WILB,and Cunningham has a chance too be special but he won't start off the top if Crable is finally healthy. The biggest surprise might very well be Deaderick he was the guy who set the edge for the Bama MLB McClain who got all the publicity and he was the guy who hit Colt McCoy on the play that put him out of the national championship game. At least one if not two of the UDFA's will make the team,my guess is that Pat Paschall and Dane Fletcher will be those two that make it on determination.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Randy Moss 100 1500 15
    Julian Edelman 60 660 5
    Wes Welker 45 540 4
    Brandon Tate 25 375 4
    Torry Holt 25 275 3
    Taylor Price 15 225 1
    Sam Aiken 5 60 0
    Aaron Hernandez 35 420 4
    Rob Gronkowski 25 275 4
    Alge Crumpler 5 40 0
    Kevin Faulk 30 240 3
    Sammy Morris 15 120 1
    Laurence Maroney 15 120 1
    Fred Taylor 5 40 0
      405 4890 45
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Wow, way to put a lot of time and thinking in that original post. good on you bro
    Posted by MVPKilla2009


    Killa, thanks!
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Good post MB !!! I have big hopes for this class, let´s hope for the best. This year schedule is very hard so this rookies will be baptised with fire!!! 22- CB Devin McCourty :                                     45 TACK- 2 INT- 2 FF  (Solid Rookie season AGREE)   42- TE Rob Gronkowski :                                             25 REC- 325 YDS- 4 TD    (For a second rounder that would be kind of low for me, i think he can be between 30 - 40 REC 2 per game avg. he´s gonna see a los of play time if healthy)   53- OLB/DE Jermaine Cunningham :                                  25 TACK- 5 SACKS- 1 FF    (The Sacks number likes me a lot, but i also hope some more tackles out of him, 35 - 40 something similar to what Larry English did last year in tackles)   62- ILB Brandon Spikes :                  55 TACK- 1 INT- 1 SACK- 1 FF (20 more tackles i spect him to be an starter after the bye week) 90- WR Taylor Price:                                    15 REC- 225 YDS- 1 TD    (Agree) 113- TE Aaron Hernandez:                                             40 REC- 520 YDS- 5 TDS  (Agree) WR's Randy Moss- 80   AGREE Julian Edelman- 60 LESS - 10 Torry Holt- 50 LESS - 10 Brandon Tate- 25 MORE + 15 Taylor Price- 15 AGREE Sam Aiken- 10 MORE + 10 TE's Alge Crumpler- 20 LESS - 5 Rob Gronkowski- 25 MORE + 15 Aaron Hernandez- 40 AGREE RB's Kevin Faulk- 35 LESS - 10 Sammy Morris- 15 AGREE LESS 5 Laurence Maroney- 10 AGREE Fred Taylor- 5 MORE +5 390 TO 405 COMPLETE PASSES... GREAT NUMBER FOR ANY ELITE QB TEAM OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR = AARON HERNANDEZ TEAM DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR = SPIKES TEAM OFFENSIVE 2ND YEAR PLAYER OF THE YEAR = SEA BASS TEAM DEFENSIVE 2ND YEAR PLAYER OF THE YEAR = P. CHUNG
    Posted by auchhhhhhhhhhh



    Auchhhh,
    Thanks man!  I agree that I may have been a little low on my tackle total for Spikes and it wouldn't suprise me at all if he was up around 75.

    I'd love to see Chung elevate his game this year and take some snaps away from McGowan and even Sanders for that matter.  I think they drafted him high in rd 2 with the idea that he'd develop into a starter and leader in the secondary.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Today we get out first look at the rookies.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Nice breakdown you put alot of thought into it. I think McCourty will be a starter eventually but the edge has to go to Butler right now with a year in the system already and an offseason in the Patriots training program. He may start right away in some dime packages and eventually nickle but I feel Bill will work him in slowly..but you never can tell. He could be a starter from day one. I have no doubts though he will contribute on special teams right away. Gronkowski will probably start by week 3 if not sooner if he is healthy. The Patriots must have done a thorough check on his back. If healthy he could have 30 or more catches and 6 tds. Cunningham I hope will be a later contributer. I would like to see Crable healthy and starting but there is no reason to think that will happen so Cunningham will probably be in the rotation in some sort. He has a quick first step and a nice cut move to get to the QB. He also has a long reach. Spikes will start from day one and will probably be in a rotaton with a healthy McKenzie. Price could be a big surprise. He has great hands and can position himself for the catch on poorly thrown balls. If he can pick up our offense there is a chance he is our fourth until welker comes back. Maybe 35 catches if he can he make the the gameday roster. HerNandez was a steal and will have 40 or more catches this year and I'm predicting 8 redzone tds. I dont know enough about the other guys to comment but I hope one or two turn out to be diamonds in the rough. GO PATS!!! 
    Posted by dshort3333


    d,
    Thanks.  Good stuff.

    Overall, I'd say this is as excited as I've been about a draft class.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Good Job, MB. Who makes the rotation for 4-3 sets ?
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Good Job, MB. Who makes the rotation for 4-3 sets ?
    Posted by JohnHannahrulz


    JHR,
    Thanks.  The rotation from a rookie perspective?  I think you could see Spikes in the middle when they go 4-3 where his size, physicality, stack/shed abilitiy and toughness against the run would also be utilized with Mayo, Guyton/McKenzie on the outside where they could use their speed to chase plays down.  You might even see Cunningham at DE (his position in college) where he could potentially provide some pressure off the edge (he has a good burst) as a pass rusher.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Pretty realistic I think. I think that if Gronokowski were to stay healthy he has the potential to catch more passes and Bill I'm sure likes his skill set, so he should be on the field alot if healthy. Honestly though it looks to be pretty realistic.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from titletownfan. Show titletownfan's posts

    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Posts: 1722
    First: 7/20/2006
    Last: 4/30/2010

    With rookie camp right around the corner, I figured it’d be a good time to try and forecast what we can potentially expect from each player heading into the 2010 season (assuming the players are healthy). 

     

    *PLEASE FEEL FREE TO AGREE OR DISAGREE*

     

    22- CB Devin McCourty:

     

    What the scouting reports say:  He has a ton of game experience is tough, physical, smart, fast and quick and has shut-down potential in both man and zone schemes.  He also profiles as a potential pro-bowl special team player.

     

    2010 Projection:  I think he projects as atleast their #3 CB, potentially their #2 and should give them great production on most all special teams, especially as a potential return man and gunner.  45 TACK- 2 INT- 2 FF

      

    42- TE Rob Gronkowski:

     

    What the scouting reports say: Great size/speed combo, profiles as a good dual purpose TE with the ability to dominate as a blocker and stretch the seam and create match up problems in the red zone as a receiver.  He had great production in 2008 47-672-10.

     

    2010 Projection:  While he didn’t play in 2009 due to a back injury, he’ll have the opportunity to come in and play right away due to the lack of NFL caliber TE’s on the NE roster.  Learning from a true pro like Alge Crumpler can only help to accelerate his acclimation.  Early on, I think he provides great value as a blocker and red zone target while the rest of his game catches up.  30 REC- 375 YDS- 4 TD

      

    53- OLB/DE Jermaine Cunningham:

     

    What the scouting reports say:  Athletic, tough and consistent defender that plays with a great motor, has a good burst off the edge and uses his hands well.  Decent production in the SEC with 33 TFL and 18.5 sacks.

     
    2010 Projection:  Due to the lack of quality edge players on the team, he may have the opportunity to impact from day one. I think he’ll see consistent playing time as part of the OLB rotation and also play on special teams.  25 TACK- 6 SACKS- 1 FF 


    62- ILB Brandon Spikes
    :

     

    What the scouting reports say:  Great leadership ability and size for the position, tough and physical at the POA and great against the run.  Has good instincts and awareness and looks to have decent ability and ball skills in coverage (6 career INT’s, 4 returned for TD).  

     2010 Projection:  Has the opportunity to start from day 1 opposite Mayo and would be an immediate impact at the ILB position.  He should at least provide value as a 2 down run stuffer early on and has the ability to develop into a 3 down backer with is ability in coverage.  80 TACK- 1 INT- 1 SACK- 1 FF 

    90- WR Taylor Price:
     

    What the scouting reports say: 
    Good size, great speed and athleticsim and was underutilized in college.  Tough, competitive, hard working kid with a lot of upside and potential as a vertical thread.
     

    2010 Projection
    :
      Will join Edelman and Tate on the list of talented young receivers in Foxboro and will likely compete with Tate for reps as the # 4 along side Randy, Julian and Tory.  20 REC- 250 YDS- 1 TD
      

    113- TE Aaron Hernandez:
     


    What the scouting reports say:
    Fast, quick, strong and athletic TE prospect with great versatility and ability after the catch.

     
    2010 Projection:  I think this kid will impact from day one, as mentioned above he has the skill set to be utilized in a variety of formations and alignments and could develop into a big play threat for TB and make a killing out of the slot.  The loss of Welker and any sort of productive TE opens the door for a potential big year.  40 REC- 520 YDS- 5 TDS 

    The Rest:
     

    I think Mesko will prove his worth at their new #1 punter (Agree) and both Deadrick and Weston could potentially see some time in the DE/DT rotation (Practice Squad this year).

    My assumed catch totals per player below, this nets out to 390 (last year TB completed 390 passes):

    WR's
    Randy Moss- 80
    Julian Edelman- 60
    Torry Holt- 40
    Brandon Tate- 30
    Taylor Price- 20
    Sam Aiken- 10

    TE's
    Alge Crumpler- 10
    Rob Gronkowski- 30
    Aaron Hernandez- 40

    RB's
    Kevin Faulk- 35
    Sammy Morris- 10
    Laurence Maroney- 5
    Fred Taylor- 5

     

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsLifer. Show PatsLifer's posts

    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class


    MB,

    Great way to start off the post as usual. Thanks man.

    I think this is the year the TE position returns to NE. To think this was a position of serious weakness prior to the draft and we turned it into a position of strength is amazing. We cashed in big time, drafting I think the best TE in the class (Gronk), and the best pass catching TE in Hernandez. The 2 of them on the field should be very interesting to watch. If we could sure up the running game, we would be lethal. 

    I think Cunningham's playing time is going to be challenged based on how/where they use him. Also, if Crable is healthy, and breaks up as we all wish. With Mayo and Spikes inside, I'd hate to take either one of them off the field as they are both playmakers. This is why I think we might see more of McKenzie as an OLB, especially when we run 4-3. He and Guyton outside in a 4-3 would be good. If Cunningham mans the DE spot in the 4-3, I agree with your numbers for Cunningham. I think 5 sacks is reasonable. 

    I got to think Mayoand Spikes are going to be dominant together. With this combination, you would think BB would run more 3-4 to keep them both on the field, and nickel/dime on 3rd and medium/long. If Spikes is at least a 2 downer and plays lets say 60% of the defensive plays, I think he ends up with 70-80 tackles. 

    Based on your post MB, I think there is an assumption Tory Holt is our #2. Is there a chance he is surpassed by Tate or even Price? I got to think the vet has some tread left on the tire. if he does, I think Price's numbers fall roughly where you have him..15 catches on the year. 


     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Very good read from you all.  I think the loss of Welker and given the new TE talent that we will see Brady utilize the TE much more next year than in the recent past.  We are already getting a glimpse of how Hernandez will be used, lined up in the slot, out wide, at the H at FB, etc.  BB will move him all around and use him the way Keller and Clark are used.  I think Edelman's numbers will be done from the 60 or so that most are projecting here. 

    Don't count out Gronk either.  He is nearly as fast as Hernandez.  I see Gronk being used a ton in the red zone and 3rd and short.  He is so tall with such a huge wing span, it will be such an inviting target for Brady.  Just when the D thinks they've figured him out, he'll go deep and beat the safety cheating up.  Guys, I really think these two young TEs will do better than you all are predicting.  I think Moss's numbers will be down to around 60/900. 


    Kyle is predicting a near repeat of 2007 from Brady and the passing game.  I think he's close but I'd bring it in a lower lower, like 4250 yards 38 TDs.  This should still be good for top 5 offense.  The running game will decline some.  The big improvement I see is on defense.  A lot of people have been critical of us not getting an elite pass rusher.  What they fail to realize is we really haven't had an elite pass rusher in a long time.  The sacks we've gotten this decade have come predominately from excellent coverage.  We've had some really solid secondaries allowing the McGinests and Vrabels of the world to over achieve.  I think McCourty solidifies the CB position and I expect more out of Chung coming on the blitz this year to get pressure. 


    All in all, the Patriots are a better team and are now one of the youngest.  The team that worries me most in the division isn't the Jets, it is the Dolphins.  Their defense will be dramatically better with Odrick, Misi, Edds and Dansby.  Brandon Marshall gives them a huge vertical threat and their running game is always good.  I think 11-5 wins the division with everyone but BUF at least 9-7.   

     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    McCourty:  Starts at CB in November.  Only average this year.

    Gronk:  Starts yesterday.  He will be just plain huge on the field.  His back seems to be fine, and he almost flipped over a tackling sled at rookie camp.  Attach a sign on his helmet that says, "Yoo hoo, Tommy, I'm open again!"  Not that everybody else won't be open too, but we haven't seen this from a Patriots tight end in years. 

    Cunningham:  Plays in September on passing downs only.  10 sacks this year.

    Spikes:  Starts in September.

    Price:  Will be a #4 receiver in September.  Note the huge logjam for being a starter on this team.

    Hernandez:  Plays about 30% of all offensive plays, starting in September.  He's good, but there's a logjam at receiver unless you're a running back, which Hernandez isn't.  BB will be running Hernandez all day if there's a good matchup against the opponent, and the next week Hernandez will get maybe two plays all game.  When you're competing against Randy Moss, a healthy Welker, Gronk, Edelman and maybe Price too, you take what you can get.

    Zoltan: He's won the job.

    Zak:  He has an outside shot at the roster, but he also might hit the practice squad.


     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    Hey - like the effort and work in the calculations on 390 completitions - if I'm honest though the first post with a receiver breakdown has a flaw (No Welker!) I imagine just an oversight and might cut back the Edelman numbers.

    Also would second the general theme on this and other threads, am genuinely excited about the TE talent and potential production there, however, given prior practice and gameplans (and don't forget who has the OC coat on), I have my doubts as to whether they will get thrown to as much as anticipated here.

    Lastly, just as a general thought, I would be delighted if the 390 number is a little lower this year - as hopefully same would suggest a little more balance with the run game. I know injuries and Maroney fumbles didn't help confidence in this last year, but if we can establish and apply the run game more consistency, hopefully it opens up less receptions (but far more yards!) in the passing game. ((Just imagine if we can open up some meaningful play-action and have Moss / Tate / Price / Hernandez flying downfield!!))
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    MB, Great way to start off the post as usual. Thanks man. I think this is the year the TE position returns to NE. To think this was a position of serious weakness prior to the draft and we turned it into a position of strength is amazing. We cashed in big time, drafting I think the best TE in the class (Gronk), and the best pass catching TE in Hernandez. The 2 of them on the field should be very interesting to watch. If we could sure up the running game, we would be lethal.  I think Cunningham's playing time is going to be challenged based on how/where they use him. Also, if Crable is healthy, and breaks up as we all wish. With Mayo and Spikes inside, I'd hate to take either one of them off the field as they are both playmakers. This is why I think we might see more of McKenzie as an OLB, especially when we run 4-3. He and Guyton outside in a 4-3 would be good. If Cunningham mans the DE spot in the 4-3, I agree with your numbers for Cunningham. I think 5 sacks is reasonable.  I got to think Mayoand Spikes are going to be dominant together. With this combination, you would think BB would run more 3-4 to keep them both on the field, and nickel/dime on 3rd and medium/long. If Spikes is at least a 2 downer and plays lets say 60% of the defensive plays, I think he ends up with 70-80 tackles.  Based on your post MB, I think there is an assumption Tory Holt is our #2. Is there a chance he is surpassed by Tate or even Price? I got to think the vet has some tread left on the tire. if he does, I think Price's numbers fall roughly where you have him..15 catches on the year. 
    Posted by PatsLifer


    Pats, thanks!  In regards to the run game, I'm intrigued to see if Pat Paschall will surpass BJGE as the most popular non-starter on the roster.  Productive kid at the 1AA level (which he completely dominated), is the only back in rookie camp so he'll get a lot of attention.

    Yes, my assumption is that Holt will be the #2 for a a good part of the season.  While it's possible for Tate or Price to surpass him, I think you'd be more likely to see that next season, though anything is possible.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    Hey - like the effort and work in the calculations on 390 completitions - if I'm honest though the first post with a receiver breakdown has a flaw (No Welker!) I imagine just an oversight and might cut back the Edelman numbers. Also would second the general theme on this and other threads, am genuinely excited about the TE talent and potential production there, however, given prior practice and gameplans (and don't forget who has the OC coat on), I have my doubts as to whether they will get thrown to as much as anticipated here. Lastly, just as a general thought, I would be delighted if the 390 number is a little lower this year - as hopefully same would suggest a little more balance with the run game. I know injuries and Maroney fumbles didn't help confidence in this last year, but if we can establish and apply the run game more consistency, hopefully it opens up less receptions (but far more yards!) in the passing game. ((Just imagine if we can open up some meaningful play-action and have Moss / Tate / Price / Hernandez flying downfield!!))
    Posted by paddypatriot83


    paddy,
    Thanks for the feedback, though I didn't type it in this thread, my assumption is that Welker provides little to no production this year as he recovers from his knee injury.  His entire game is predicated on speed, quickness and shiftiness which involves him being able to stop and cut on a dime, something that will be tough if his knee isn't at or close to 100%.  If he does play, I'd agree that Edelman's numbers would go down.  I too would love to see more balance on offense as  being less predictable should in theory give opposing defenses more to prepare for and a successful running game is good for controlling the clock and dictating the tempo of the game.
     
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    Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class

    In Response to Re: Projections for the 2010 Draft Class:
    McCourty:  Starts at CB in November.  Only average this year. Gronk:  Starts yesterday.  He will be just plain huge on the field.  His back seems to be fine, and he almost flipped over a tackling sled at rookie camp.  Attach a sign on his helmet that says, "Yoo hoo, Tommy, I'm open again!"  Not that everybody else won't be open too, but we haven't seen this from a Patriots tight end in years.  Cunningham:  Plays in September on passing downs only.  10 sacks this year. Spikes:  Starts in September. Price:  Will be a #4 receiver in September.  Note the huge logjam for being a starter on this team. Hernandez:  Plays about 30% of all offensive plays, starting in September.  He's good, but there's a logjam at receiver unless you're a running back, which Hernandez isn't.  BB will be running Hernandez all day if there's a good matchup against the opponent, and the next week Hernandez will get maybe two plays all game.  When you're competing against Randy Moss, a healthy Welker, Gronk, Edelman and maybe Price too, you take what you can get. Zoltan: He's won the job. Zak:  He has an outside shot at the roster, but he also might hit the practice squad.
    Posted by Paul_K


    Paul_K,
    Thanks for the feedback, I think Hernandez will be more productive and/or see the field more than you are predicting.  His versatility and ability to line up almost anywhere on the field should provide a huge value to this offense as you can put him outside the numbers, in the slot, in the backfield and off tackle inline in a three point stance or as an h-back.  This versatility will allow BB to utilize him in almost any scheme and alignment.
     

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