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SAM MONSON:"Brady is no longer a top 5 qb (behind BIG BEN)..wins don't matter!" agree?
Re: SAM MONSON:
posted at 6/3/2014 1:30 PM EDT
Sam Monson is Rusty?
Re: SAM MONSON:
posted at 6/3/2014 5:35 PM EDT
I respect Sam Monson's conclusions because, unlike most sports analysts and columnists, he didn't just toss out an opinion and instead uses numbers to back them up. But while numbers don't lie, people do. I doubt Monson has anything against Brady, but just because he uses stats doesn't mean his conclusions aren't still very much subjective. To be fair, that is often the nature of statistical analysis.
I haven't read his piece, but from what I've heard, he puts a lot of stock in the 2013 Brady performing poorly under pressure. His argument is that Brady has had excellent numbers against pressure in the past, and the drop in those numbers this past season is evidence of his decline.
Baseball is a sport where stats are very valuable and meaningful, because a play typically involves an one-on-one matchup between the pitcher and batter. Unfortunately, as we all know, football stats are borderline meaningless because each play is a complex 11-on-11. It doesn't make sense to put a lot of weight into comparing Brady's historical numbers under pressure with his numbers in 2013. His offense have changed (mostly for the worse), which introduces a lot of new variables that can account for the decline in numbers.
So while Monson has his point, he is jumping to conclusions with the analysis that he's done. At most, he can say that Brady is no longer top 5 in the category of completion percentage while under pressure (and even that's up for debate depending on how he constructed that metric). To say that Brady has declined and no longer a top 5 QB is just a statistician being sensationalist. And while I applaud Sam's effort to use quantitative analysis and empirical evidence, I wish he would've left the exaggeration to the "experts" at ESPN.