Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from Artist-Frmrly-Knwn-As-NickC1188. Show Artist-Frmrly-Knwn-As-NickC1188's posts

    Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I put "?'s" next to the games I think will be tougher.  Tougher games are in bold and I break them down below.  These are the games that will determine seeding and home field.

    I'd be disappointed if this team finished any worse than 13-3 given the talent and the depth at almost every position other than safety, outside linebacker, and guard, especially after going 14-2 against a tougher schedule last year without a defense.


    W  @Miami - toughest part is the hot weather; they have no QB
    ?   San Diego
    W  @Buffalo - their best player is their punter; early visit negates weather
    W  @Oakland - toughest part is the travel out west
    W  NY Jets - last year's playoff game still fresh on their minds; revenge?
    ?  Dallas
    ?   @Pittsburgh
    W  NY Giants - home, with 2007 on their minds; Giants lost a lot of talent
    ?   @NY Jets
    W  Kansas City Chiefs - could be sneaky-tough; Brady />Cassel & @home
    ?  @Philadelphia Eagles
    ?  Indianapolis Colts

    W  @Washington Redskins - it's a trap!
    W  @Denver Broncos - in mile-high Denver; Orton underrated
    W  Miami Dolphins - Miami comes here in the cold w/o a QB
    W  Buffalo Bills - Bills will be playing for Andrew Luck


    I like the Pats against San Diego at home, but Antonio Gates is the first of many elite tight ends we face this year and we let Jarrad Page and Brandon McGowan walk.  Does Guyton step up in that role?  Chung?  The Chargers' offense has the potential to initiate a shootout, at which point it's a cr@pshoot.  The Chargers' defense could be underrated, too, especially if Bob Sanders can stay healthy next to Eric Weddle (with Jammer at cornerback).  Takeo Spikes, despite age, could also contribute at LB and Shaun Phillips is the kind of speed rusher that always gives Matt Light problems (assuming he's still the starter, which early in the season is safe to assume).  A big part of it will also be the Pats' improved pass rush - can they get to Rivers?  Otherwise, Vincent Jackson is a good deep threat against almost anybody.  We'll find out very quickly whether our safety corps is vulnerable and how bad - Gates and Jackson really test safeties and Norv Turner for all his faults is a decent playcaller.

    I put perennially overhyped Dallas as a question mark for a lot of the same reasons as San Diego.  Romo is a much lesser QB than Rivers (IMO), but I view Felix Jones as a better run threat and I think the Cowboys' offense with maligned-but-talented Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten could also instigate a shootout (and because of Felix Jones, is a more balanced offense than San Diego with Ryan Matthews).  The Pats should be able to exploit their secondary, but Ware is a beast and their d-line is very underrated.  The Pats' tight ends will play a big role in this game testing their mediocre safeties and linebackers.

    I like our chances against Pittsburgh just because they've only beaten the Pats once with Brady healthy (back in 2004, and we beat them in the AFC Championship later on).  The Steelers will also be suffering the Super Bowl hangover this year (although I think their years of contending will reduce its effect versus a Cinderella appearing in a Super Bowl and having increased expectations).  The biggest thing: the Steelers have no offensive identity if Hines Ward is aging.  Mike Wallace is a deep threat, but the Steelers' identity was smash mouth running until recently when they started spreading it out.  Emmanuel Sanders is their other possession guy, but he's hurt with a broken foot.  And they have no offensive line.  I'd still take their linebacker corps in a quick second over almost anybody on the Patriots not named Jerod Mayo or possibly Brandon Spikes, but their cornerbacks are still a weakness (Ike Taylor's not a true #1 shutdown CB) and Polamalu can't stay healthy while the other safety has always been "the other safety" next to Polamalu.  Still, it's at their house.

    We always lose one to the Jets.  As much as I'd love a sweep and think last year's playoffs provided the necessary motivation, I could see the Pats losing in the Meadowlands.  And personally, while I always want to beat the Jets, I'd rather have our revenge in this year's playoffs, kind and merciful God permitting. 

    The scariest part of Philadelphia's defense isn't their cornerbacks - it's their DEFENSIVE LINE.  If you watched their preseason game against Baltimore, Flacco was pressured in 4 seconds or less on almost every passing play.  Cullen Jenkins was a HUGE pickup for them (in my humble opinion, even bigger than Asomugha), as was Justin Babin.  Jenkins was all over Flacco in the limited time they saw.  The KEY to beating Philadelphia is finding ways to exploit their mediocre safeties and sub-par linebacker corps.  I wouldn't mind losing this one if it reveals matchup problems that can be exploited if we see the Eagles again.  They're a talented team and it would be a game on the road for a young Patriots team.  I don't think our receivers match up very favorably, though.  Philly will test the Patriots' running game and tight end play action against their smaller defensive line and mediocre linebackers and safeties.

    Indianapolis always plays us tough and they're trying to put together a run game this year.  A balanced offense would bring back that play action pass that defined the early part of Peyton Manning's career with Edgerrin James at RB.  One of the following needs to step up to support Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne if the Colts' offense is going to keep up its pace: Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie, or Blair White.  While I think Tommie Harris was a good signing as a role player, their defense has been losing guys to free agency and wasn't even that great to begin with.  I think they'll be more vulnerable this year than they were even last year, but I expect them to play us tough, especially if everyone stays healthy (Dallas Clark presents a much bigger problem since we let Brandon McGowan and Jarrad Page walk when they were our TE coverage specialists in subpackages)

    THE LAST FOUR GAMES ARE ALL TRAP GAMES - if it's possible to have four trap games in a row, these are them.  Stay healthy and leave with W's while setting up momentum into the playoffs.  None of these teams SHOULD beat the Pats, but it's a young team, so I'd hate to see them asleep at the wheel when it could cost them seeding and home field.
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    re:
    " like the Pats against San Diego at home, but Antonio Gates is the first of many elite tight ends we face this year and we let Jarrad Page and Brandon McGowan walk.  Does Guyton step up in that role?  Chung?"

    watching chung, he cannot cover.
     
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    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    In Response to Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win:
    re: " like the Pats against San Diego at home, but Antonio Gates is the first of many elite tight ends we face this year and we let Jarrad Page and Brandon McGowan walk.  Does Guyton step up in that role?  Chung?" watching chung, he cannot cover.
    Posted by brdbreu


    Yea I remember Blair White of the Colts burning him on a skinny post / seam route last year for a touchdown.

    I wonder if one of the bigger corners (Dowling or Bodden) would move inside to play the slot against better tight ends.  I remember reading that Bodden was playing the slot in training camp and had a nice pick in a jump ball with Gronkowski, albeit on an underthrown pass.  But then you're susceptible to the run with a d-back in the box, or you have a spread out secondary with just the two  corners and a safety over the top.  That's why I liked Jarrad Page - he was 6'2" and 225, so he didn't look out of place in the box.
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from USMCM1A1. Show USMCM1A1's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    My prediction is 13-3 also.  That being said, no way we lose to Dallas or Pittsburgh.  Especially Pittsburgh.  Schematically our offense is just too tough a nut for them to crack.  I think we'll put on another offensive clinic against them.  I got a lot of respect for Mike Wallace and their deep game, but BB will limit them there.
     
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  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ChasaB. Show ChasaB's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    the denver game shouldnt be to much of an issue, that late in the season you are looking at a denver team that if its out of playoff contention will have either quinn or tebow starting.

    People are underselling the bills. Fitz was one of the better Qb's in the league last year, and another offseason jelling with his number 1 reciver stevie johnson, and the improvement of the defense. I also expect cj spiller to perform like the first round pick that he is. Expect the bills to steal one game from us.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from seawolfxs. Show seawolfxs's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I think the 10 /6 is correct and your analysis is hard to
    argue with.

    It will be interesting to see if Dallas and the Jets implode?

    According to Rex
      His Dline is the strength of his D 
      He wouldn't trade his top 7 OLmen for anyone
      Sanchez has improved so much that the overall 
           talent on the Jests is the best ever

                      yeah right

    What QB will Philly have available then?
    One of these years S.D. may live up to there talent


    I do see our OLine and Dline much bigger and more physical
    in some time - I don't see any real weakness - save injuries
      just like anyone else
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from JulesWinfield. Show JulesWinfield's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    In Response to Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win:
    I have em at 13-3 with losses @ Philly, @ NY and @ Denver.  I think they can win all 3 of these, obviously, but each will be the toughest road tests, so I think they lose them. I don't see them losing any home games, and if they do it will be to Dallas or KC. Agreed on Pitt. They could easily lose that one, too, but it's just such a bad matchup for Pitt, NE would have to come in unprepared, which I don't see. Also, that game comes after their Bye week, which is 99% a slam dunk win for BB.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKing


    Denver?  I don't think Denver will give the Pats (or any other good team) a run for their money this year.  Not a very good team IMHO...
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from arodrambone. Show arodrambone's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    14-2 - 16-0, with potential losses to only Philly, Pitt, and NYJ.

    We are a juggernaut. Behold.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from themightypatriotz. Show themightypatriotz's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    Wow people still throw last year's D under the bus.  I guess anything short of the 2000 Ravens isn't good enough.  Try watching the Rams or Cardinals or any other defense that isn't the Steelers or Packers before you whine about our D. 
     
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  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from pauldeba. Show pauldeba's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    Colts, Chargers and Cowboys are not tough games

    Pittsburgh were pretender last year, I'll reserve judgment until a few weeks into the season

    Jets and Eagles will be tough, we'll win both.

    19-0
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from tompenny. Show tompenny's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I just want 3-0 or 4-0 in the playoffs. .

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I'll put question marks on both Jets games.  The Jets seem to have a philosophy of dogging three games against anybody else in the NFL, and then they come out firing on all cylinders against the Patriots.  Rex Ryan and the players understand that they have to beat the Patriots to get a cap and T-shirt (we in New England are soo used to picking up the division crown that it's, oh, another cap and T-shirt to put on), but in the process the Jets pretty much ignore everyone else and pull off these 7-7 season records.  If that's what they want...

    Dallas is not that good a team.  I have them as winning 7.3 victories next year.  That's a home game.

    I have San Diego as winning 8.6 victories next year.  That's a home game too.  There is no road trip worse than flying in from the west coast to New England.  The time zone change is worse from west to east for some reason. 

    The Colts are a 9.0 team, and that's a home game too, late in the season and not in a dome where Peyton feels more comfortable and with crowd noise piped in.

    My numbers list New England, deliberately for calculating point spreads, at 15.6 victories next season.  They were blowing good teams out right and left last year.  This year they also have Nate Solder, Leigh Bodden, Albert Haynesworth, Chad Ochocinco, Price, Gronk got much better, a bunch of neat pass rushers, Stevan Ridley, Vereen should be up and running by September, maybe Ras-I Dowling, and their backup quarterbacks already look like any other team's starters.  I put the Patriots at 15-1 only because they physically can't achieve 17 regular season victories and negative one losses, so I'm pretty well covered deep.  In any case, this is not a team you want to play if you're an 8-8 team.

    So that leaves Pittsburgh away, with Pittsburgh at 12.4 victories, the two Jets games, where the Jets are estimated at 11.5 victories, and Philadelphia away, with Philly at 10.5 victories but at least Philly got some new toys to play with.  None of these games are even-up contests but they can possibly be lost.

    This does not include pity factor games like the Bills at week 17, and probably the Dolphins at week 16 and Denver at week 15 too. 

    That's my list.
     
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  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I agree when looking at the schedule.  I like the Pats against the Cowboys but think the Chiefs will be tough.

    We will probably split w/l with the Jets.  Eagles worry me, San Diego worries me this year, Steelers always worry me, Colts I will wait and see but we always have a hard time with them and the Chiefs game will be tough.   

    Teams always win a game or two they were picked to lose and loss a game or two they were picked to win.  I'm thinking 11-5 and a much better playoff run then previous years.  But after last season nothing will surprise me by what BB and the Pats can do.  Add into the fact that the Pats look like a team that has done much more this short training camp then other teams have done so 13-3 wouldn't be a stretch.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from WelkerRules. Show WelkerRules's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I don't get people who are pats fans saying we won't win against the jets. the jets are NOT good.
    They talk like they are but they are not. Just because they won that one play off game against us last year doesn't make them good by any stretch. They had one lucky game.

    you all were on here before saying how they were not good and now since they won that afc game against us I keep reading the jets are good and how we will lose to them.

    Well I am still sticking with the Pats CAN beat the Jets in BOTH games this year. Just cause we play on there doesn't mean we can't win it. Have some faith in the team you say you back.

    We are improved they are essentially the same. Only rex thinks they are better and I can tell  you Sanzhez isn't so I am hoping for both wins against the Jets and if we play them in playoffs we will beat them there too. You can bet bill won't let that happen again.
     
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    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    In Response to Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win:
    I don't get people who are pats fans saying we won't win against the jets. the jets are NOT good. They talk like they are but they are not. Just because they won that one play off game against us last year doesn't make them good by any stretch. They had one lucky game. you all were on here before saying how they were not good and now since they won that afc game against us I keep reading the jets are good and how we will lose to them. Well I am still sticking with the Pats CAN beat the Jets in BOTH games this year. Just cause we play on there doesn't mean we can't win it. Have some faith in the team you say you back. We are improved they are essentially the same. Only rex thinks they are better and I can tell  you Sanzhez isn't so I am hoping for both wins against the Jets and if we play them in playoffs we will beat them there too. You can bet bill won't let that happen again.
    Posted by WelkerRules


    Did I say we COULDN'T win the game?  No.  I put a f***ing question mark next to it.  Get off your soap box.  I'll believe the Pats are definitely better and can definitely win both games against the Jets if and when they do it.  Until then, they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt until they EARN it.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from Michael02127. Show Michael02127's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    I would be more inclined to call NY Giants a "tougher" game than Dallas.  Dallas has been regressing since Parcells left.  New coach shortened training camp, romo coming off injury...  They don't look very tough to me.
     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from FishTaco64. Show FishTaco64's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    People are betting on 19-0 again? Gotta love it, that means we got a great team!
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from auchhhhhhhhhhh. Show auchhhhhhhhhhh's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    Split the ?    3 - 3

    Win 9 of the other 10  

     

    12 - 4 Record... #1 seed !!!!

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from brdbreu. Show brdbreu's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    In Response to Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win:
    In Response to Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win : Denver?  I don't think Denver will give the Pats (or any other good team) a run for their money this year.  Not a very good team IMHO...
    Posted by JulesWinfield


    coaching in denver looks worse this year not better. tebow is what he is, but they're going to wast what they have in him, whether they play him or not. they are al lmixed up and just barking.

    dener should not be a problem.

    15-1 to 12-4
    i like 2 or 3 losses, even favorable (2-3) find out what needs improvement, not get your head too high, etc
    don't want an undefeated season. too much pressure to carry. puts focus on the wrong thing as well.
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from Haxker. Show Haxker's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    14-2 ...

    anyhow, not sure why so many people have pitts as a ?; its a a good team that is an ? for everyone else, not for NE
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from Paul_K. Show Paul_K's posts

    Re: Schedule Breakdown: six truly tough games and ten we *should* win

    From last year's numbers I have New England by 3.2 points at the Jets, and NE by 9.2 points at home versus the Jets.  Add to this a moderately horrid showing in the Jets' first stringers versus Houston, and New England's 47-12 stomping of Jacksonville didn't tarnish their reputation at all.  Then subtract the Jets' traditional A game against New England.  
     
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