From the all knowing Miguel
Here’s a breakdown of some of the more interesting cap issues facing the Patriots in 2015 and beyond:
The big leaps: Four contracts will have huge salary-cap increases in 2015 — cornerback Darrelle Revis, left tackle Nate Solder, linebacker Jerod Mayo and tight end Rob Gronkowski. Revis’ cap cost will go from $7 million this year to $25 million next year. Solder’s cap cost will go from $2,717,429 to a projected $8,720,594 depending on the Patriots picking up Solder’s option for the 2015 season. If they do not, Solder will become an UFA after the 2014 season. Mayo’s cap cost will go from $7,287,500 in 2014 to $10,287,500 in 2015. Mayo’s 2015 cap number may go higher. If he makes the Pro Bowl in 2014, it would make his $300,000 Pro Bowl incentive LTBE for 2015 making it count against the 2015 cap. Right now, Mayo’s 46-man active roster bonuses count $187,500 against the 2014 cap. If Mayo were to play in 16 games in 2014, the 46-game active roster bonuses cost against the 2015 cap would increase from $187,500 to $500,000. Gronk’s cap cost will go from $5,400,000 in 2014 to $8,650,000 in 2015.
Smaller bounces: The other cap jumps in 2015 are more modest. Vince Wilfork, Danny Amendola, Kyle Arrington, Rob Ninkovich, Julian Edelman and Brandon Browner are all scheduled for increases between $1 million and $3 million. No one else on the roster is scheduled to go up by more than $500,000.
Big decisions coming right around the start of the 2015 League Year
Darrelle Revis – The Patriots have an option on Revis’ April 1, 2015 roster bonus. They must decide to pick up the option or not by the end of the 2014 League Year.
Brandon Browner – Brandon Brown earns a $2 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots 90-man roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
Vince Wilfork – Vince Wilfork earns a $4 million roster bonus if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year
Rob Gronkowski – Gronk’s 2015 $4.75 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year. Also, if Gronk is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year there will be a $2 million proration of his 2016 million option bonus that will officially hit the Patriots 2015 cap.
Rob Ninkovich – 1 million of Ninkovich’s 2015 salary becomes fully guaranteed the 5th day of the Patriots league year.
Nate Solder – Solder’s 2015 $7.438 million salary becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the Patriots roster the first day of the 2015 League Year.
A look at the Patriots’ 2015 contracts shows that 14 players make up over eighty percent of the 2015 projected cap number. Those 14 players have a combined 2015 cap hit of $114,033,833, or 81 percent of the projected cap number of $140 million. Excluding Revis, the 13 players have a combined 2015 cap hit of $89,033,833, or 64 percent of the $140 million figure.
$25,000,000 ……Darrelle Revis
$13,000,000 ……Tom Brady
$11,000,000 ……Logan Mankins
$10,287,500 ……Jerod Mayo
$8,650,000 ……Rob Gronkowski
$8,058,333 ……Vince Wilfork
$7,438,000 ……Nate Solder
$5,575,000 ……Danny Amendola
$4,700,000 ……Brandon Browner
$4,625,000 ……Kyle Arrington
$4,500,000 ……Sebastian Vollmer
$4,250,000 ……Julian Edelman
$3,950,000 ……Rob Ninkovich
$3,000,000 ……Brandon Lafell
Safe to say that anybody on that list, other than Brady and Solder, could become a cap casualty after this upcoming season.
Any player the Patriots release or trade after June 1, 2014 season will give the Patriots dead money on the 2015 cap if the player had a signing bonus that was still being pro-rated over the 2015 season. To determine the amount of dead money add the remaining pro-rated amounts and any guaranteed salaries. The longer the player is still under contract and the larger his initial signing bonus, the higher that number will be.
How much dead oney in 2015 would the Patriots have after releasing some of their higher-priced players after June 1, 2014?
$5,000,000 …..Darrelle Revis * dead money increases to $17,000,000 the begining of the 2015 League Year
$4,000,000 …..Logan Mankins
$6,000,000 …..Jerod Mayo
$3,300,000 …..Rob Gronkowski * dead money increases to $10,050,000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
$866,667 …..Vince Wilfork * dead money increases to $4,866,667 the begininng of the 2015 League Year
$0 …..Nate Solder * dead money increases to $7,438, 000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
$3,600,000 …..Danny Amendola
$0 …..Brandon Browner * dead money increases to $2,000,000 the beginning of the 2015 League Year
$3,250,000 …..Kyle Arrington
$3,500,000 …..Sebastian Vollmer
$3,750,000 …..Julian Edelman
$2,500,000 …..Rob Ninkovich * dead money increases to $3,500,000 the 5th day of the 2015 League Year
$2,000,000 …..Brandon Lafell
Subtract dead money and $435,000 (salary of the player who will take released player’s spot in the Top 51 list) from the player’s 2015 cap number to get the potential cap savings. Example, Mankins has a 2015 cap number of $11,000,000. Subtract 4,000,000 from that and you get $7,000,000. Subtract $435,000 from $7,000,000 and you get $6,565,000 in cap savings. If the Patriots released with, say, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Logan Mankins, Jerod Mayo, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Vince Wilfork in February of 2015, they would have a net gain of $44,459,166 in cap space.
Of course, the Patriots could reach extensions with some Patriots to lower their 2015 cap numbers, most notably Revis and Solder.
I started off this post stating that the Patriots are going to have to make several difficult and most likely unpopular decisions in the next year to become active participants in 2015 free agency. I would like to end up this post with my predictions.
Pick up Revis’ option? No.
Extend Revis’ option? Only if the APY of the real money in the deal is $13 million or lower.
Pick up Browner’s option? If he plays well in 2014, Yes. Otherwise, no.
If Revis and Browner are part of the Patriots’ long term plans, Arrington will probably be released sometime in 2015
Release Gronk before the start of the 2015 League Year? Yes, if he continues to miss games in 2014.
Keep the running back duo of Ridley and Vereen? No. One will remain a Patriot. The other will attempt to find success elsewhere in the NFL.
Keep the trio of Lafell, Amendola and Edelman for the 2015 season? One maybe two will have to go to create cap space and roster space for the younger wideouts on the team.
Keep or extend Mankins? His play in 2014 will decide the answer. I am guessing the latter.
Keep Mayo? If Mayo has a repeat of the 2013 season and Jamie Collins steps up in 2014 Mayo may be too expensive to keep in 2015
Reach a deal with McCourty? Yes
- See more at: http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=377#.U9JtzWdOWM8