SI Expert Picks

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    SI Expert Picks

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/football/nfl/01/04/playoff.predictions/index.html?xid=cnnbin


    Link is to SI expert play-off picks. 

    Interesting point is that NO is now the favored pick to win it all (4 to 3 over GB).

    Everyone picks either NE or Balt in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl.  Looks like the injuries to Pitt have them out of favor.

    Look out but the dreaded Peter King (the supposed Pat's hater) has the Pats getting to the SB.  Only 1 person picks them to win it all.
     
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  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from NYC. Show NYC's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Am I the only one that thinks SF has a very good chance of beating NOs at home? Brees has 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the road this year.   He's a different player. NOs has some RB depth issues now with Ingram out even if ivory and Thomas are fine lead backs. They're pass D is sketchy and their Run D is bad.  They're a BAD matchup for SF as is GB. Don't be surprised at all if SF's recipe takes down NOs (or Detroit) and then their style gives GB all kinds of problems, maybe enough for a SB berth. SF vs NE in the Super Bowl for me.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]

    King 
    I can see it. Is Patrick Willis back in the line-up for SF?
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    I love how the 49ers play defense..they're relentless and tough.  That will definitely pose some problems for those high flying offenses.  The big question for them is if their offense will be able to step up enough.

    I wouldn't call Peter King a Pats hater...i think he's got a pro Northeast bias if anything.  Rodney called the Pats defense the worst he's seen.  Is he a hater too?  I wouldn't say so.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Am I the only one that thinks SF has a very good chance of beating NOs at home? Brees has 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the road this year.   He's a different player. NOs has some RB depth issues now with Ingram out even if ivory and Thomas are fine lead backs. Their pass D is sketchy and their Run D is bad.  They're a BAD matchup for SF as is GB. Don't be surprised at all if SF's recipe takes down NOs (or Detroit) and then their style gives GB all kinds of problems, maybe enough for a SB berth. SF vs NE in the Super Bowl for me.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]

    No, you aren't.

    I watch that team all the time ... their circus act vertical game fizzles out outside of the dome, and they don't play as well without the Dome noise hurting their opponent's offense. They crush teams in the Superdome ... but have played pretty terrible-average, against an overall easy schedule, on the road. 

    They won't survive SF and GB on the road. 
     
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  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from Patsman3. Show Patsman3's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : P. King is a hater. Something happened when he lied about Spygate like 99% of the media after his WEEI interview with Dale and Holley. He used to have intriguing inside info and since then, zilch. Too coincidental. It's pretty obvious his inside line to Foxborough has been scaled way back and he's got some bitterness about it.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]

    SF is my upset special (as in going to get upset).  Very inexperienced team in the play-offs, shaky QB.  Some high seed is going to lose in the first two rounds and I think SF will be the one. (thou I guess losing to NO isn't a huge upset).
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from Dessalines. Show Dessalines's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    PATS chances are as good as any other team in the field.  If your in the tournament you have a chance and I don't see the teams in the tournament as all that much better one from the other.  People should keep an eye on the Giants though, they'll be touigh.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]I love how the media is hammering NE's D, ignores that GBs is worse.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]

    I posted this yesterday, but it applies here as well. GB's D was slightly worse statistically, but the opponents the Packers faced were much tougher offensively. The Packers faced 7 teams in the top 10 in points scored, #2 (NO), #4 twice (Detroit), #5 (SD), #6 (Carolina), #7 (Atlanta) and #9 (NY Giants), and had 4 more games with teams that were between 11 and 20th in points scored. They beat them all. Pats only faced 3 in the top 10,  SD, #8 Philly and the Giants. They had 8 games with teams that were between 11 and 20th in points scored. They won 10 of those 11 games.

    The 49ers D only faced 3 of the top 10 point producing offenses, and a full 10 of their games were against offenses that ranked 24th or lower in points per game. Remains to be seen how good they will be against the real offenses, GB, NO or the Pats in the Super Bowl.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    If the picks highlight one thing, it is that the AFC has turned into a 2 team race, with Pittsburgh now being the "reach pick" and the other 3 being irrelevant, except for determing who Pittsburgh travels to in the division round.

    3-6 the NFC presents far more intriguing teams and the projected N.O./SF game is a legitmate toss up.
     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from jeffab. Show jeffab's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    I would like to see a team like San Fran. make it to the Super Bowl although I'm not sure that their offense will be able to keep up.  The Saints -   I was watching NFL Turning Point last night and there was a bit where Brees was mic'd on the sideline listing off to another player all of the records that New Orleans and their players had set this season including his own passing record (he named Jimmy Grahams yard by a tight end record, little did he know...).  As an illogical fan, this makes me want to see Brees and the Saints get hit in the mouth.  Why not the Pats?  I'm taking a positive attitude.  The SB loss to the Giants was as bad a feeling as you can get as a Pats fan, so I'm telling myself I'm just going to relax and enjoy this years playoffs.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]I wonder if the Giants play a game like 2 weeks ago against Washington at home.
    Posted by bobbysu[/QUOTE]

    Yeah, I picked NYG but I'm rethinking that one.  I think it really comes down to ATL's ability to run the ball, if they can keep the pass rush honest they have the WR's/TE to take advantage of the Giants questionable secondary.  I think the winner of this game really has a legit shot @ GB, both played them well in the regular season.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    People who picked the Ravens over the Pats baffle me.  This team is a slightly better version of the NJ Jests, as far as I can tell.  
     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    Great D's always hampers great O's in the playoffs the only question is if the other teams O can take advantage of weaker D's.

    NFC - This division is truly up for grabs in reality

    NO - decent D but mainly a great O. They have a very tough road to the SB. Det is a team that is very comparable to NO for both their O and D, this is going to be the game of the week and imo is really a toss up that could go to either team by 1 mistake or bad call

    Det - When the O is functioning it's hard to bet them and when the D wants to get dirty and racket it down it's becomes a bruising bloody game. The only thing holding Det back is themselves. Mental mistakes and stupid penalties. If the refs keep the flags in their pockets and Det doesn't do anything stupid they have a more then fair shot at NO's

    SF - All D and no O. But, at this time of the year the D benefits more then the O does. If the O can muster in the mid 20's against weaker D's they should be able to beat any team in the NFC these playoffs

    GB - All O no D. The thing that makes GB dangerous is not their O but their impact players on D. As we saw last year in the playoffs GB's D has the ability to make those 1 or 2 critical plays to win them the game. This year the D really hasn't been tested and forced to make those plays yet though in the playoffs the O's always take a hit. If GB's D does what it did last year and creates those couple of critical plays they are a tough team to beat but if the D can't create the turnovers I don't know if they will have enough to get past a NO or SF

    Atl - good all around team but can't get in shootouts vs Det, NO, or GB and can't overcome SF D. They have a shot at NYG but if Manning comes to play then they will be out quick

    NYG - their post-season is completely on Mannings shoulders. Their D is good enough to limit the high scoring O's to a mid 20's score so it's up to Manning with his Jekyll and Hyde ways to win the game. When Mannings on he can put up points against weaker D's and put up enough points against stronger D's to win the game but when he's not clicking then the Giants just don't score at all.

    My prediction:

    WC round - NO beats Det, NYG beats Atl
    Div round - GB beats NYG, SF beats NO
    CC round - SF beats GB in a slug fest

    AFC - Bal and NE are the head of the class

    Pit - without Mend and with Ben on 1 leg that O is going to stall. Without the O going the D might not be able to win it for them. The one big advantage they have is they first meet Den

    Den - the little engine that could has found out that faith will only get you so far. Without a real QB their running game and D aren't good enough to get them far in the playoffs

    Bal - Great D but the question becomes what happens if Rice gets shut down? Can Flacco produce enough points to win a game? Against weaker O's Bal should have no trouble scoring enough points but if they need to be in the mid to high 20's against NE can they do it? It's the only question mark heading into the playoffs from what I can see

    Cin - This is a young and exciting team but like Den it can only take them so far. Fortunately for them they are going against a Hou team limping into the playoffs. If Cin doesn't get over excited and doesn't commit stupid penalties they should make it out of the first round

    Hou - talk about the walking wounded. In 3 weeks they went from #1 seed to 1 and done. At least their fans can say they made the dance but unless Tate has a career day Yates just isn't going to be enough

    NE - NE is a lot like GB with a minor exception. They don't have impact players like GB. NE's D is all about limiting scoring inside the 20's and solid play capitalizing on mistakes and adjustments. The D has shown ability to lockdown and not panic even after giving up a couple of scoring drives. The big key is adjustments. If the D makes the proper adjustments, capitalizes on the other teams mistakes, and doesn't panic if they get down early then they should be fine. The biggest adjustment for the O is the stellar year of the TE's and the emergence of Ridley. If Ridley and BJGE share 20-30 carries a game and Woodhead filling in as a change of pace/hurry up back it should take pressure off of Brady. This O will steam roll if opponents can't get pressure on Brady early and often.  One huge advantage the Pats have over last year is that Hernandez has learned how to read zone and find the open holes while also being healthy. The name of the game though is to keep Brady clean. If they use Ridley and BJGE effectively to keep the D honest and give time for Hernandez, Gronk, and Welker to find the soft spots Brady will tear any team in the AFC apart. No other team in the AFC will be able to go stride for stride on O with the Pats

    My Prediction:

    WC round - Pit beats Den, Cin beats Hou
    Div round - NE beats Cin, Bal beats Pit
    CC round - NE beats Bal


    SB - NE beats SF
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]People who picked the Ravens over the Pats baffle me.  This team is a slightly better version of the NJ Jests, as far as I can tell.  
    Posted by Davedsone[/QUOTE]

    Replace "slightly" with "significantly".
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from agcsbill. Show agcsbill's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    What is blinding many pundits to the defensive woes of GB and NO is their offenses, which is funny considering NEs is right there with them.  There is more "love" towards these two teams than NE.  Also, I agree, the 49'ers in the NFC could surprise a lot of folks with their D in the same fashion many point to BAL and PIT in the AFC versus the high powered offenses of GB, NE, NO.
     
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  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from ATJ. Show ATJ's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    One thing that has been posted repeatedly on this board by Shenanigan and several others is that NE is a mentally tough team.  Yes, they could lose but this team will not fold in doing so.  If intangibles matter, and they certainly did in the Pats' first SB win, then it is foolish to count out NE.

    I also like the 49ers.  Very tough, tenacious D and arguably opportunistic offense despite Alex Smith under center.  Only thing that gives me pause about 'em is 1st year HC and a very young team.  Be interesting to watch.
     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from pcmIV. Show pcmIV's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    I think San Fran is overrated.  They have an excellent defense, but they play in arguably the worst division in the NFL and only played against one team with a top 10 scoring offense.  Their offense is ranked in the top 3rd in scoring, but the bottom 3rd in yards which means they rely on their D to set them up.  I'd be surprised if they make it to the SB.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]I think San Fran is overrated.  They have an excellent defense, but they play in arguably the worst division in the NFL and only played against one team with a top 10 scoring offense.  Their offense is ranked in the top 3rd in scoring, but the bottom 3rd in yards which means they rely on their D to set them up.  I'd be surprised if they make it to the SB.
    Posted by pcmIV[/QUOTE]

    They played against:

    Det #4 scoring O
    Phi #8 scoring O
    NYG #9 scoring O

    so comparable to most of the rest of the league as far as top 10 O faced yet they averaged giving up less then 15 points a game. I don't care who you face, if you average less then 2 scores a game and only had 2 games total where you gave up more then 24 points a game (1 being a meaningless last game of the season game) you have a pretty good D
     
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  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from NCPatsFan1971. Show NCPatsFan1971's posts

    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : I posted this yesterday, but it applies here as well. GB's D was slightly worse statistically, but the opponents the Packers faced were much tougher offensively. The Packers faced 7 teams in the top 10 in points scored, #2 (NO), #4 twice (Detroit), #5 (SD), #6 (Carolina), #7 (Atlanta) and #9 (NY Giants), and had 4 more games with teams that were between 11 and 20th in points scored. They beat them all. Pats only faced 3 in the top 10,  SD, #8 Philly and the Giants. They had 8 games with teams that were between 11 and 20th in points scored. They won 10 of those 11 games. The 49ers D only faced 3 of the top 10 point producing offenses, and a full 10 of their games were against offenses that ranked 24th or lower in points per game . Remains to be seen how good they will be against the real offenses, GB, NO or the Pats in the Super Bowl.
    Posted by BostonSportsFan111[/QUOTE]



    Great Statistics.  But of the 7 Top Ten Teams in Scoring that GB beat, which of these 7 teams do you think are better all around teams than the Patriots right now?  And which of these teams would beat the Patriots in a game that was played right now at Foxboro or at a Neutral Site? 

     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    Rusty/Eng:

    Fair enough.  I didn't realize Philly and NYG had snuck into the top 10 of points scored after this week as I don't think they were there after week 16.  Though to be fair I conceded that they have an excellent D in my previous post.  I just think their stats have been padded slightly by a few near shutouts against terrible offensive teams.
     
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