SI Expert Picks

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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    I see the 49ers problem being 2 things 

    1. At some point against presumeable N.O. and GB Alex Smith is going to have to at least hold his own against Brees and Rodgers and 2 defenses that have won Super Bowls.  I really question whether Smith can do that.  If S.F. finds themselves behind 10+ points, I think they are in real trouble.  GB and N.O. share the same weakness, pass defense, but SF isn't exactly builty to exploit that weakness.

    2.  San Francisco does not have a great pass defense.  They rush the QB well but they have holes in the secondary and when you think about the 2 teams they will likely face, that becomes a major concern.  They have seen AZ, STL, SEA, CLE, BALT, a hobbled Rapistburger over the past couple months, none of those teams prepares them to stop Brees or Rodgers.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : Great Statistics.  But of the 7 Top Ten Teams in Scoring that GB beat, which of these 7 teams do you think are better all around teams than the Patriots right now?  And which of these teams would beat the Patriots in a game that was played right now at Foxboro or at a Neutral Site? 
    Posted by NCPatsFan1971[/QUOTE]

    My only point was that the Packers faced better offensive teams (I am not going to argue RWTKs point of view), which was a factor as to why their defensive stats were (slightly) worse than the Pats. Of those 7 two are indoor teams, New Orleans and Detroit. One of them loses this weekend, and whoever is left is going to have problems with SF or GB outdoors, especially if weather is a factor. GB is not strong vs the run, but that is not NO or Detroits strength either. The Pats are also better overall than Atlanta, Carolina, San Diego and, at this point, the Giants. I believe they will beat Cinci, Pittsburgh or Denver in their first playoff game, and if they stay healthy in that game, should have a very strong possibility of making it to the Super Bowl. No reason they cant beat Baltimore, especially if they can get a lead.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : My only point was that the Packers faced better offensive teams (I am not going to argue RWTKs point of view), which was a factor as to why their defensive stats were (slightly) worse than the Pats. Of those 7 two are indoor teams, New Orleans and Detroit. One of them loses this weekend, and whoever is left is going to have problems with SF or GB outdoors, especially if weather is a factor. GB is not strong vs the run, but that is not NO or Detroits strength either. The Pats are also better overall than Atlanta, Carolina, San Diego and, at this point, the Giants. I believe they will beat Cinci, Pittsburgh or Denver in their first playoff game, and if they stay healthy in that game, should have a very strong possibility of making it to the Super Bowl. No reason they cant beat Baltimore, especially if they can get a lead.
    Posted by BostonSportsFan111[/QUOTE]

    The outdoor factor is interesting and 1 team no one is really talking about regarding that is ATL.  Yes, they play in a dome, but they are a run first, play action type offense more than any other NFC team besides S.F.  They have a QB who we all know played at B.C., so he can play in the cold and a RB who went to school in Illinois. 
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]I would like to see a team like San Fran. make it to the Super Bowl although I'm not sure that their offense will be able to keep up.  The Saints -   I was watching NFL Turning Point last night and there was a bit where Brees was mic'd on the sideline listing off to another player all of the records that New Orleans and their players had set this season including his own passing record (he named Jimmy Grahams yard by a tight end record, little did he know...).  As an illogical fan, this makes me want to see Brees and the Saints get hit in the mouth.  Why not the Pats?  I'm taking a positive attitude.  The SB loss to the Giants was as bad a feeling as you can get as a Pats fan, so I'm telling myself I'm just going to relax and enjoy this years playoffs.
    Posted by jeffab[/QUOTE]I hear you on that. That loss was a wound that cut deep and will not heal. I still cannot watch Strahan. About the Saints, when we played them a couple of years ago and got handled in NO, I will not soon forget the arrogance portrayed on Payton's ugly mug. To get a chance to paste a frown on both his and Brees' face, would be an elixer to be savored so sweetly.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : I hear you on that. That loss was a wound that cut deep and will not heal. I still cannot watch Strahan. About the Saints, when we played them a couple of years ago and got handled in NO, I will not soon forget the arrogance portrayed on Payton's ugly mug. To get a chance to paste a frown on both his and Brees' face, would be an elixer to be savored so sweetly.
    Posted by xBruzer77[/QUOTE]

    Actually would like to see the Giants get back then so the Pats could get revenge on them. 
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]PCIV, Disagree a bit. We heard similar comments about Arizona in 2008.  Then you look at how NOs looked against Seattle last year on the road, outdoors.  SF is built pretty solidly and keeps game close when they play. SF went undefeated if I am not mistaken on the road this year. Very mentally tough, weak division or not. The high plus takeaway number reminds me of NE last year. Their flaw, like Houston's, is inexperience.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]SF lost to the Ravens in the Brothers bowl in Baltimore.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : SF lost to the Ravens in the Brothers bowl in Baltimore.
    Posted by xBruzer77[/QUOTE]

    True, but that was a Thursday night game in Baltimore, meaning SF traveled cross country and had a real short week.  No excuses but that is a real tough game for SF, schedule wise.

     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : True, but that was a Thursday night game in Baltimore, meaning SF traveled cross country and had a real short week.  No excuses but that is a real tough game for SF, schedule wise.
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]
    No doubt. But they only mustered 3 points.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : My only point was that the Packers faced better offensive teams (I am not going to argue RWTKs point of view), which was a factor as to why their defensive stats were (slightly) worse than the Pats. Of those 7 two are indoor teams, New Orleans and Detroit. One of them loses this weekend, and whoever is left is going to have problems with SF or GB outdoors, especially if weather is a factor. GB is not strong vs the run, but that is not NO or Detroits strength either. The Pats are also better overall than Atlanta, Carolina, San Diego and, at this point, the Giants. I believe they will beat Cinci, Pittsburgh or Denver in their first playoff game, and if they stay healthy in that game, should have a very strong possibility of making it to the Super Bowl. No reason they cant beat Baltimore, especially if they can get a lead.
    Posted by BostonSportsFan111[/QUOTE]



    FWIW, that is a well thought out answer and I agree with it.  I just get a little leery of statistics.  Someone might have already said it but if statistics were that accurate in predicting major game outcomes, we wouldn't have to play any games because the outcomes would already have been decided.  :)




     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : No doubt. But they only mustered 3 points.
    Posted by xBruzer77[/QUOTE]

    In fairness i think it was 6 points, 16-6.  I personally don't think Smith or Flacco will win 2 tough play-off games.  In Flacco's case he may only need to win 1 to get to the Super Bowl I suppose. 
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : FWIW, that is a well thought out answer and I agree with it.  I just get a little leery of statistics.  Someone might have already said it but if statistics were that accurate in predicting major game outcomes, we wouldn't have to play any games because the outcomes would already have been decided.  :)
    Posted by NCPatsFan1971[/QUOTE]

    Stats say the Pats have the 2nd worst defense in the league, many of us still believe they will make it to and win the Super Bowl. Thats why we all love they play the games!!
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    Pats fan living in 49 County:

    The Niners are for real, folks. I'm picking them to go to the SB. Despite all the yak, yak about the highflying offenses of NE, NO and GB . . . I've watched too much football to buy the latest rap.

    Defense wins championships. Have you forgotten 2007 all ready? And don't fans remembe the Pats' first Super Bowl vs 'The Greatest Show on Turf?'

    Come on. People in New England are supposed to be fans of history.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Pats fan living in 49 County: The Niners are for real, folks. I'm picking them to go to the SB. Despite all the yak, yak about the highflying offenses of NE, NO and GB . . . I've watched too much football to buy the latest rap. Defense wins championships. Have you forgotten 2007 all ready? And don't fans remembe the Pats' first Super Bowl vs 'The Greatest Show on Turf?' Come on. People in New England are supposed to be fans of history.
    Posted by tjwoods[/QUOTE]

    10 of the games the Niners played were against the bottom 11 scoring offenses in the league. Not saying they cant stop NO, GB and the Pats consecutively, but playing Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis twice each, Cleveland, Washington, Tampa and a beat down Steelers team is not the same level of competition. It will be a great feat if they can pull it off. Dont forget, Alex Smith is also the QB who would have to make fewer mistakes than Brees, Rogers and Brady...
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : 10 of the games the Niners played were against the bottom 11 scoring offenses in the league. Not saying they cant stop NO, GB and the Pats consecutively, but playing Seattle, Arizona and St. Louis twice each, Cleveland, Washington, Tampa and a beat down Steelers team is not the same level of competition. It will be a great feat if they can pull it off. Dont forget, Alex Smith is also the QB who would have to make fewer mistakes than Brees, Rogers and Brady...
    Posted by BostonSportsFan111[/QUOTE]

    Yup.  And when you look at the better Qb's they faced, Romo, Eli, Stafford, all had close to over 300 yard games against them.  Even Skelton had a big game a couple weeks back.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks : In fairness i think it was 6 points, 16-6.  I personally don't think Smith or Flacco will win 2 tough play-off games.  In Flacco's case he may only need to win 1 to get to the Super Bowl I suppose. 
    Posted by Thesemenarecowards[/QUOTE]

    You are correct. As a Pats fan out here near SF, I am used to the 9ers being inept. They were pitiful under Mike Singletary, but are essentially the same team. I cannot help feeling that they are over acheiving. That is not to say they won't be a force for the next few years, but change is usually not that fast. I would love to see them face the Pats in the SB.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In response to "Re: SI Expert Picks": [QUOTE]Pats fan living in 49 County: The Niners are for real, folks. I'm picking them to go to the SB. Despite all the yak, yak about the highflying offenses of NE, NO and GB . . . I've watched too much football to buy the latest rap. Defense wins championships. Have you forgotten 2007 all ready? And don't fans remembe the Pats' first Super Bowl vs 'The Greatest Show on Turf?' Come on. People in New England are supposed to be fans of history. Posted by tjwoods[/QUOTE] Of course NE was the better defense, maybe not that day but throughout the season which is what we're talking about. NE was 4th and NYG 17th in defense. So the better defense did not win that day. And the Greatest show on turf had a defense that was nearly identical to the Pats allowing 273 points during the season vs the Pats 272. It's all about how they play in the game because neither the Pats great offensive number or the 49ers defensive numbers mean they anything. Offensive teams most certainly can win, Colts, Saints, GB, defensive teams can lose (Ravens haven't even been to a SB in 10 years). Just have wait and see.
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Am I the only one that thinks SF has a very good chance of beating NOs at home? Brees has 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the road this year.   He's a different player. NOs has some RB depth issues now with Ingram out even if ivory and Thomas are fine lead backs. Their pass D is sketchy and their Run D is bad.  They're a BAD matchup for SF as is GB. Don't be surprised at all if SF's recipe takes down NOs (or Detroit) and then their style gives GB all kinds of problems, maybe enough for a SB berth. SF vs NE in the Super Bowl for me.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]


    I agree with you Rusty.  I think Brees is more likely to turn the ball over than either Rogers or Brady.  He's been helped by the diversity of talent on NO's offense, but a good defensive team like SF could give him trouble, particularly with SF playing at home and the crowd behind them. 

    I guess if I were betting, I might still lean slightly to NO, but SF has a very good shot at upsetting them.  
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

     I do think New Orleans is a terrible match up for the Pats but i do not see New Orleans as the NFC favorite. The Saints will have to win two brutal games and then most likely have to play in a very cold Lambeau field to make it. The one team that will probably be able to handle a road game in Green Bay without huge discomfort is the Giants. A talented Saints squad laid an egg against a terrible Seahawks team last year in the play offs. There are no teams as bad as the Seahawks in the playoffs this year (except the Broncos when Tebow is playing bad).
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    San Fran will lose their first playoff game-you heard it here first! No way they outscore NO.I don't care where it's played.In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Am I the only one that thinks SF has a very good chance of beating NOs at home? Brees has 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the road this year.   He's a different player. NOs has some RB depth issues now with Ingram out even if ivory and Thomas are fine lead backs. Their pass D is sketchy and their Run D is bad.  They're a BAD matchup for SF as is GB. Don't be surprised at all if SF's recipe takes down NOs (or Detroit) and then their style gives GB all kinds of problems, maybe enough for a SB berth. SF vs NE in the Super Bowl for me.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    In Response to Re: SI Expert Picks:
    [QUOTE]Am I the only one that thinks SF has a very good chance of beating NOs at home? Brees has 9 TDs and 6 INTs on the road this year.   He's a different player. NOs has some RB depth issues now with Ingram out even if ivory and Thomas are fine lead backs. Their pass D is sketchy and their Run D is bad.  They're a BAD matchup for SF as is GB. Don't be surprised at all if SF's recipe takes down NOs (or Detroit) and then their style gives GB all kinds of problems, maybe enough for a SB berth. SF vs NE in the Super Bowl for me.
    Posted by RidingWithTheKingII[/QUOTE]
    I completely agree.  The 49ers defense is monstrous.  No rushing touchdowns allowed for 14 straight games until Marshon in Seattle, NFL record by the way.  No hundred yard rushers allowed in first 14 games Marshon again stopped that run.  Most takeaways in NFL history tying the Pats of 2010.  Isnt it often said defense wins championsips. 

         I grew up and went to college in Ma.  but have lived in SF bay area for 20 years.  My dream Superbowl is Pats vs Niners and my dream World Series is Giants vs Red Sox as my handle states. 
     
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    Re: SI Expert Picks

    Brees actually has 17 touchdown passes on the road, and more passing yards than at home (albeit in more attempts).  His overall numbers are better at home, but he's definitely capable on the road.
     

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