In response to TexasPat's comment:

 

In response to wmasschilly's comment:

 

my question Tex, is do you think BB is going to go ape sh** again and build another juggernaught?

 

     Yes, I do. BB is likely as frustrated and angry about the way the Pats' 2012 season ended as the rest of us. So...I expect some big changes. But, unlike in 2007, where BB went crazy adding offensive weapons for Tom Brady, in this off-season, he'll focus on defense. The signings of CFL products Armond Armstead and OLB Vega are just a start.

 

     The next order of business is to determine what he's going to do with his own key free agents...RT Sebastien Vollmer, and WRs Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Whether he resigns C-Bass or not depends on what the prognosis is on Vollmer's back. His back injury has limited his effectiveness, and his playing time. This is a really tough call...because when Vollmer is healthy, he's one of the best RTs in the game. If he's healthy, he'll be resigned. If not, the Pats will be in the market for a replacement. 

     There's no way that the Pats will franchise Wes Welker, and pay him over $11mil. for the 2013 season. They'll either sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal, or send him packing. My guess is that a deal will be reached. At this stage of Welker's career, does it really make sense for him to go elsewhere, for a few million more? He and Brady are close friends. Welker stays, at, say, a 3 year, $20mil. deal, of which $12mil. is guaranteed. 

     Due to his upside, the younger Julian Edelman will be a more attractive free agent target than Welker. Edelman is also more likely to go to a bad team that pays, than Welker.

     Look for BB to add a safety through free agency...either Ed Reed or Dashon Golston, if they become available. Say goodbye to Patrick Chung...who fell behind Steve Gregory on the depth chart.   

 

 

 

Good thoughts here.  I totally agree that Chung will be gone.  He really fell out of favor with the coaching staff this year.  I think Edelman will be back for sure.  He shouldn't command a huge contract and I think BB likes him.  His injuries should give NE a little bit of leverage.  As for Welker, it is really up in the air.  If I had to guess, I'd say he's gone, but if he's willing to accept a lesser contract like the one you suggested above, then he stays.  Should be interesting.

" At this stage of Welker's career, does it really make sense for him to go elsewhere, for a few million more" 

I don't know how rich you are, but I can guarantee that if someone offered me a few million more to do my job I would take it.  You do realize how much 1 million dollars is, correct?  If you had a job where your earning capacity was within about a 10 year window, I think you would maximize what you make.  Part of the reason that pro players go broke is that they never expect the cash to stop rolling in.  Wes Welker's career could be over tomorrow.   I haven't looked, but I would guess that Welker has averaged about 3 mil. a year through his career.  That would be $24 million he has made to date.  But since he has to get all his money in this small window, that really averages out to about $500k a year over the span of the average worker's career.  That is very good, but $2 million would be about 10% of his annual pay if you break it down like this.

"Tremendous upside, and worth the risk...."

Hmmmm.... Where have we heard this before? Oh, yeah! Haynesworth, Carter, Moss (knowing his M.O. in the last year of his contract), Ochostinko (my personal fave)...  Upside for how long? What happens when it explodes? Nothing was done to provide solid back up for any of these guys for if/when they blew up. It took a little time, but the Pats were right back where they started from without fixing the problem these guys were supposed to solve. 

My kids used to say the same thing: "And, Dad, THIS time I REALLY mean it!" 

In response to wozzy's comment:

Hahaha! First off Wilfork is not slipping...on the other hand Mayo - to be able to slip - would have to be on a higher ground to slip from...he's never gotten there...therefore no slippage (just steady sailing in average land). 

In response to paularnold's comment:

 

" At this stage of Welker's career, does it really make sense for him to go elsewhere, for a few million more" 

I don't know how rich you are, but I can guarantee that if someone offered me a few million more to do my job I would take it.  You do realize how much 1 million dollars is, correct?  If you had a job where your earning capacity was within about a 10 year window, I think you would maximize what you make.  Part of the reason that pro players go broke is that they never expect the cash to stop rolling in.  Wes Welker's career could be over tomorrow.   I haven't looked, but I would guess that Welker has averaged about 3 mil. a year through his career.  That would be $24 million he has made to date.  But since he has to get all his money in this small window, that really averages out to about $500k a year over the span of the average worker's career.  That is very good, but $2 million would be about 10% of his annual pay if you break it down like this.

 

     You can't equate a job as an athlete with that of the average guy. The good players are already millionaires, by the time they're in their 30s. Pro sports is littered with players who have given a "home town discount" in order to stay with the team of their choice...to play with certain players and/or coaches...and/or for the chance to win a championship. Tedy Bruschi made such a choice, as has Tom Brady, Matt Light, Troy Brown, and other Patriots. You may recall that former Ravens' WR Derrick Mason was once courted by the Patriots...but spurned them for less money to play with the Baltimore Ravens, because his wife had family in Baltimore. Ray Lewis also took less money to stay with the Ravens, rather than be released, several years ago. Ol' Ray-ray would go on to discover the power of HGH and antler enzymes. But, that's another story...LOL!!! 

 

 

 

In response to TexasPat's comment:

Thanks TP for the well thought out, cogent analysis--which is more than I can say for the article, nay, "slide show" I just read by Zuri Berry titled Where do the Pats go from Here which was about as banal as it gets!

on a side note, I was listening to Chandler Jones being interviewed yesterday and you just get the feeling that the sky is the limit for this guy

In response to auchhhhhhhhhhh's comment:

Absolutely agree.  This offseason is so key to future SB's and league dominance.

In response to auchhhhhhhhhhh's comment:

 

We dont have the cap or Draft picks to do that again... NOR THE NEED... i believe that we are 2 or 3 key players away from a great team

 

     The Pats have plenty of cap space. Depending on what they do with Sebastien Vollmer and Wes Welker...they could have a ton of cap space. The decision to resign Vollmer will come down to his health. His bad back is a huge concern. As for Welker, there's no way that the Pats will franchise him, and pay him over $11mil. for the 2013 season. They'll try to sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal...say...three years for $20mil., with $12mil. guaranteed. If he is seeking ridiculous money, they'll let him walk. Frankly, I don't see any team offering Welker more than that.

 

     The Pats have plenty of draft picks to improve their team. The signing of the 22 year old DT Armstead was the equivalent of having an extra second round pick...and Vega the equivalent of a 3rd or 4th rounder. In addition to these, the Pats own the 29th, 59th, and 91st selections...plus two other low round picks. That's plenty to work with, for a team that is looking for another player or two to get them over the hump.

     "NOR THE NEED"??? Surely you jest! That secondary of theirs MUST BE FIXED!! To accomplish this, they must sign CB Aqib Talib, and find a quality safety. It appears that two may be available through free agency...Dashon Goldson and Ed Reed. Several years ago, the Pats could have had Goldson. Unfortunately, they didn't go that extra mile (or million) in negotiations, and he instead chose the 49ers. Though Ed Reed isn't the player he once was, he'd be like having a coach on the field. More importantly, Reed would instantly provide veteran leadership...something that the relatively young Patriots' defense so sorely needs...and has lacked since the days of Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison.

     Heck...you yourself admit that there's a need...as you correctly point out that the Pats are a couple of players away from being a great team. Keeping Talib, and adding Reed and/or Goldson could be those players needed to finally get this team over that championship hump.             

In response to TexasPat's comment:

 

In response to auchhhhhhhhhhh's comment:

 

We dont have the cap or Draft picks to do that again... NOR THE NEED... i believe that we are 2 or 3 key players away from a great team

 

     The Pats have plenty of cap space. Depending on what they do with Sebastien Vollmer and Wes Welker...they could have a ton of cap space. The decision to resign Vollmer will come down to his health. His bad back is a huge concern. As for Welker, there's no way that the Pats will franchise him, and pay him over $11mil. for the 2013 season. They'll try to sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal...say...three years for $20mil., with $12mil. guaranteed. If he is seeking ridiculous money, they'll let him walk. Frankly, I don't see any team offering Welker more than that.

 

     The Pats have plenty of draft picks to improve their team. The signing of the 22 year old DT Armstead was the equivalent of having an extra second round pick...and Vega the equivalent of a 3rd or 4th rounder. In addition to these, the Pats own the 29th, 59th, and 91st selections...plus two other low round picks. That's plenty to work with, for a team that is looking for another player or two to get them over the hump.

     "NOR THE NEED"??? Surely you jest! That secondary of theirs MUST BE FIXED!! To accomplish this, they must sign CB Aqib Talib, and find a quality safety. It appears that two may be available through free agency...Dashon Goldston and Ed Reed. Several years ago, the Pats could have had Goldson. Unfortunately, they didn't go that extra mile (or million) in negotiations, and he instead chose the 49ers. Though Ed Reed isn't the player he once was, he'd be like having a coach on the field. More importantly, Reed would instantly provide veteran leadership...something that the relatively young Patriots' defense so sorely needs...and has lacked since the days of Willie McGinest, Tedy Bruschi, and Rodney Harrison.

     Heck...you yourself admit that there's a need...as you correctly point out that the Pats are a couple of players away from being a great team. Keeping Talib, and adding Reed and/or Goldston could be those players needed to finally get this team over that championship hump.             

 

TEX,

re: " 29th, 59th, and 91st selections...plus two other low round picks. That's plenty to work with, for a team that is looking for another player or two to get them over the hump."

 

the players we need ot get over teh hump are at 9-20 ansah or jordan pass rusher

14-29 xavier rhodes cb

and 20-45 one of the top big outside wrs ie hopkins.

we dont have 1 in 9-20 AND 14-29, AND 20-45

In response to TexasPat's comment:

 

In response to wmasschilly's comment:

 

my question Tex, is do you think BB is going to go ape sh** again and build another juggernaught?

 

     Yes, I do. BB is likely as frustrated and angry about the way the Pats' 2012 season ended as the rest of us. So...I expect some big changes. But, unlike in 2007, where BB went crazy adding offensive weapons for Tom Brady, in this off-season, he'll focus on defense. The signings of CFL products Armond Armstead and OLB Vega are just a start.

 

     The next order of business is to determine what he's going to do with his own key free agents...RT Sebastien Vollmer, and WRs Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Whether he resigns C-Bass or not depends on what the prognosis is on Vollmer's back. His back injury has limited his effectiveness, and his playing time. This is a really tough call...because when Vollmer is healthy, he's one of the best RTs in the game. If he's healthy, he'll be resigned. If not, the Pats will be in the market for a replacement. 

     There's no way that the Pats will franchise Wes Welker, and pay him over $11mil. for the 2013 season. They'll either sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal, or send him packing. My guess is that a deal will be reached. At this stage of Welker's career, does it really make sense for him to go elsewhere, for a few million more? He and Brady are close friends. Welker stays, at, say, a 3 year, $20mil. deal, of which $12mil. is guaranteed. 

     Due to his upside, the younger Julian Edelman will be a more attractive free agent target than Welker. Edelman is also more likely to go to a bad team that pays, than Welker.

     Look for BB to add a safety through free agency...either Ed Reed or Dashon Golston, if they become available. Say goodbye to Patrick Chung...who fell behind Steve Gregory on the depth chart.   

 

 

re:

 

" The next order of business is to determine what he's going to do with his own key free agents...RT Sebastien Vollmer, and WRs Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. Whether he resigns C-Bass or not depends on what the prognosis is on Vollmer's back. His back injury has limited his effectiveness, and his playing time. This is a really tough call...because when Vollmer is healthy, he's one of the best RTs in the game. If he's healthy, he'll be resigned. If not, the Pats will be in the market for a replacement. "

this is what ive been saying for months

     There's no way that the Pats will franchise Wes Welker, and pay him over $11mil. for the 2013 season. They'll either sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal, or send him packing. My guess is that a deal will be reached. At this stage of Welker's career, does it really make sense for him to go elsewhere, for a few million more? He and Brady are close friends. Welker stays, at, say, a 3 year, $20mil. deal, of which $12mil. is guaranteed"

 

this also is what ive sasid here for several months.

 

not in agreement on edelman. i think he wants to stay even more than we need him. i think he resigns for low $

i want the safety prefer younger than reed byrd/golston etc

 

ive posted more detailed posts re who to let go, fa and draft over last several months

AZPat - the difference is that the two CFLers combined cost the Pats nothing but money, and rookie money at that. They carry the same potential as any other 2nd to 4th round draft pick, but without actually costing a draft pick. Sometimes you get a Gronk and sometimes you get a Chung or Wilhite.

Bredbru - I think Edelman is back, too, at reasonable $. I think there would be mild interest from other teams but injury history is not good and I think he wants to come back.

On Welker - I just don't see other teams paying more for him - no one really expects him to put up the same numbers on another team. I think the 3/21M range is about right and likely about what the outside market would be.

Byrd is probably franchised - the number is pretty low for safeties at 5+M I believe. Golston might be available, Landry is probably available, Reed probably stays in Balt. None of them is ideal and all may cost more than Pats want to spend when they may be more focused on spending on CBs.

The "crowd" mentality is alive and well based on the exaggerated criticism of the Patriot's signing two CFL players.  Unlike most of us, the Patriots have scouts that cover the CFL for potential players to complement their roster.  Just as the Wilson signing caught most of us off guard last year, one or both of these players could prove useful.  As for stardom that's quite a stretch for even  first round selections (considering our late draft position).

Vega and Armstead obviously distinguished themselves on the field.  Consider how many collegiate draft selections are made ...not on production....but on "potential" alone. We have two players who appear to fit our system....In the case of Armstead, concerns about his heart attack scared teams off his draft selection despite later learning that the heart problems were  precipitated by injected pain killers he was given by team personnel .Vega was overlooked because the level of competition at the small college level could be a misleading yardstick.

We should be pleased that these two players have NFL-type experience with a "better-than-college-level competition and they have played well enough to attract the attention of other NFL teams. In addition their NFL potential is based on PRODUCTION and not merely "measureables".

In response to mthurl's comment:

All of our players sux, isn't that the prognosis here...?