Talib

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    Re: Talib


    This is gonna be a really tough decision. Best thing Imo to do is this. BB after the season ends, reach out to other gms to asess his worth going forward with his re occuring hip injury. Is he gonna get surgery. How will he perform afterwards. Try to get an honest gauge on the price of his services and offer no more than any other GM is willing to play and take in account he knows your sytem and you have had trouble drafting top flight Cbs. All you can do. YOu cant afford to pay him if he cant stay on the field. At his best, he is worth what the top CBs got 2 years ago, not being on the field?? I dont think that is worth anything.

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    I simly don't think that BB gives this guy $20M guaranteed;



    I don't see it happening.

     
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    Re: Talib

    They could also give him money for each game he is active and pro bowl

     
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    Re: Talib

    I think he also likes being with this team. Given his experience in precious teams, he might value that enough so that he is okay with good dollars, not necessarily top dollar.

     
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    Re: Talib

    8-10 million per year is likely what it would take.  If I were in charge, I would make sure he remains a Patriot for that price.

     
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    Re: Talib

    4yrs 36 mil. 18 mil gtd. That's what "discount" he may take for us. Question is pay him? Even if the market is down I don't see this guy taking anything less than 9 a year

     
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    Re: Talib


    good job rkarp

    being lazy - is he 27 or 28?

    May be the first thing to be considered is he really coming back -
    after me hoping for the Kelly return , i feel a little less sure he is back until he is

    the other mitigatng factor, in the Pats favor for a deal, is that Revis hasn't exactly been the difference in win / loss. so it may give some trsmd room to pause for more $- However if the Pats win the SB his price with him playing hisd price will get jacked

    I think the price is $8-10m per yr  but the question is how much in guanteed $? and how long ? Can a team pay per games played?


    the Revis money was absurd and he was always angling for the next contract
    Asamwa? wasnt much better.

    I think paying qbs $20m a year is also a bit crazy, Balt got fleeced with Flaco - which was between a rock and a hard place- I wonder if  about now if Flaco wished he had Bolden who was the real MVP for that team last year in the playoffs and SB?
    (Please lets not get into the WW talk - lol)

    glad i am not writing the check
    <br/>

     
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    Re: Talib

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:

     

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  

     



    Yes, but if you are FA as a CB, and I believe many rolled the dice taking a 1 year deal to see if the market would move in 2014, that doesn't really help you since that's a lot of CBs competing.

     

    Next, the cap is flat through 2014, so that limits the aggressive nature in spending for most teams.  If the player wants to go to a crap organization and cash in, that's a different story.

    Talib needs the Pats as much as the Pats need Talib.  That's the real bottom line. It would behoove both to meet in the middle.

    Finally, 1st rd picks are like gold now.  This is a real gamechanger, IMO.  So, if you're a team that wants a Talib caliber type CB that is on a team in cap hell, you can toss a 1st rd pick easier now with rookie cap in place, which further floods the market and lessens demand. Take the top 5 CBs in each conference and you could control their extension and set up a trade to a team that is just wasting the use of that elite CB.  Look how fast these teams in cap hell just lost themselves.   It was building and obvious, but when it comes, it comes hard and quick, with years needed to build back up.

    The rookie cap and the cap structure off the lockout has completely changed the dynamic of the CB market now.  Teams have seen Asamougha get 16 million along with Revis and now see that it's a disaster in doing that.  I was trying to point this out in and out of the lockout as to why both Philly and the Jets were making massive mistakes.  That was never the real market.    Within that, it all trickled down to the bloated deals to Dunta Robinson, Jonathan Joseph, DeAngleo Hall, Samuel, etc, who were all overpaid in free agency. Look at those teams now.  Falcons fell of the cliff this year, Houston has lost their edge just as fast, Skins are morons, and Philly is also in a major bind.

    Talib, while clearly a top notch talent, has some red flags that hurt his position at the bartering table.

    The 2008-2012 CB FA era was an aberration.   It's not the norm.   It's beyond clear any organization paying CBs 10-15 million combined, if not more per year, is not a way to have a SB contending team. If you can get one elite or one quasi-elite CB in there for around 6-8 mil, you need your other CB to be a draft pick or someone you've developed.

    Even if the cap jumps the 5 million in 2015, that's not enough to just toss 10+ million to an elite CB anyway.

     

     



    I don't think anyone will be issuing a $16million per contract offer to Talib (or any CBs) for the time being. I could be wrong, but the heady days of Asomugha and Revis were abberational. The market was crazy for a while, spurred by those contracts setting it. But there has been an adjustment. 

    But there might be teams willing to go over $10 million, and yes, Talib would be wise to think about a.) how much he enjoys winning and b.) how well those teams will fit his skill set. In New England, as long as Brady is healthy, Gronk is healthy (by and large) and Chandler Jones is healthy, he stands to meet both of those criteria. There is a good young core of players here, and a HOF QB that could put together a nice 3-4 year run before it's all said and done: Talib could be part of that.

    Or he could roll the dice taking a massive contract somewhere like Washington or Philly or Dallas. There are other teams that are perrenial contenders. And there are other defenses in which he fits as well (obviously not Tampa) but he already has that here.  

    At the same time, he plays for money. It's his living. Like all players, he only has one go at his career, and he has already signed a team friendly contract here (with admitted advantages for him in 2014).

    You don't want to float the guy a ridiculous $6 million per offer in a market where he could stand to make something twice that. If it were a situation like that, I wouldn't blame him for not taking it; there is life outside of and (importantly) after football, and  millions of dollars can make real life a lot more secure. 

    Depending on the language in the contract something like $8.5 million per season with $18 million guaranteed (around the transition tag /franchise tag value) would be a reasonable offer -- if Talib can be healthy for the remainder of the season. Talib could get more on the open market, but it is high enough to demonstrate his value to the franchise. 

    Perhaps modelling a contract on Vince Wilfork's last contract plus a little for market inflation/positional adjustment, something like $36 million over 4 seasons, with the last season being essentially unguaranteed money is a deal that makes sense? 

    As far as the ramifications to NE's cap, Vince Wilfork has an $11.6 million cap figure which has to be mitigated either way -- either through a lower cost extension of by letting him go (as tough as that sounds, BB has done that several times to aging linemen) and possibly resigning him. I think there are clear options available for NE to clear some space. 

    At any rate, the ~$5 million Talib makes is far less than the value he brings to the defense. No, if it's $14 million or something, you let any player that isn't a QB walk. But Talib is probably the most valuable part of this defense going down the road, and at 27 he has a few years left in his prime. So a solid offer with a few seasons, and a salary that is in some way commensurate with the market would make sense. 

    IF he can stay healthy for the remainder, giving him an solid extension and raise that makes sense for both sides should be a priority. In my opinion. 

    You don't want to insult players with crazy low ball offers, but you do want to drive your bargain and try to commuicate organizational value that goes beyond money.

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    In response to zbellino's comment:

    Corner backs are expensive, league wide ... even with the recent drop off. 

    There is a decisive reason for this:

    22 quarters with Talib NE is giving up just 14 ppg averaged. 

    15 quarters without Talib NE is giving up 26 ppg averaged. 

    NE is still playing good situational football on defense, but that is a tremendous dropoff that is visible to the naked eye, and statistically quanitifable.

    BB might, this time, want to mull over whether paying a legit ace corner is worth it. The "trickle down" effect on the other corners, safeties, and pass rushers is tremendous. Talib gives BB a demonstrable strategic advantage when he is in there.  



    I think the larger issue to mull over; is Dennard or Logan going to be a legit ace corner? if they are, do they mitigate the need for paying big (but fair) $$$ for Talib?

    I also understand the 2nd guess, no one knew how it would fall with Talib THIS year, would he come back. No one knew if Dennard would end up with prison time. No one knew if a draft choice CB could blossom in this defense. But now we know, is it 2nd guessing the $$$ allotted to Arrington?



    There is, of course, that. 

    Dennard is legit now, in my opinion. He isn't game changing like Talib, but he is a legit, quality corner in the NFL. 

    Logan Ryan actually looks promising too. 

    But neither of them, nor them together (right now of course) look anything like what Talib looks like. 

     
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    Re: Talib

    I would be okay with giving Talib a bit more than usual if we could get some kind of injury language like in Vollmer's contract.

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:

    Vince will work with BB with his situation. Not worried about that.




    Or we'll just cut him.  Vince's cap hit is coming down next season one way or another.   I am not worried either.

     

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to rkarp's comment:

    ditto Mankins?



    I'm not as down on Mankins as most here, but if you were going to do it, it certainly wouldn't be in 2014.  The cap savings wouldn't be sufficient next season to justify cutting him.  2015 on the other hand would be more viable.

     
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    Re: Talib

    In response to Harvey-Wallbanger's comment:

    In response to seawolfxs' comment:


    good job rkarp

    being lazy - is he 27 or 28?

    May be the first thing to be considered is he really coming back -
    after me hoping for the Kelly return , i feel a little less sure he is back until he is

    the other mitigatng factor, in the Pats favor for a deal, is that Revis hasn't exactly been the difference in win / loss. so it may give some trsmd room to pause for more $- However if the Pats win the SB his price with him playing hisd price will get jacked

    I think the price is $8-10m per yr  but the question is how much in guanteed $? and how long ? Can a team pay per games played?


    the Revis money was absurd and he was always angling for the next contract
    Asamwa? wasnt much better.

    I think paying qbs $20m a year is also a bit crazy, Balt got fleeced with Flaco - which was between a rock and a hard place- I wonder if  about now if Flaco wished he had Bolden who was the real MVP for that team last year in the playoffs and SB?
    (Please lets not get into the WW talk - lol)

    glad i am not writing the check
    <br/>



    Baltimore got fleeced with Flacco because Ozzie sat back and risked losing his leverage. I warned of it at the time.   I don't even think they tried to get him re-upped off the lockout.   He gambled and lost. Now, with a 3-5 club with a weaker D and a weaker overall offense, they just don't have the pipeline to withstand.

    I remember people on here saying we should have traded a 1st rder for Ladarius Webb and then pay him the Courtland Finnegan money!  I think it was Prolate who had suggested it.

    I warned of him being moved outside and how it would expose him.

    http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2013-11-06/sports/bal-sports-blitz-lardarius-webb-corey-graham-struggling-20131106_1_lardarius-webb-corey-graham-webb-and-graham

    Look at his disaster for Baltimore:

    2014: $7.5 million, 2015-2016: $8 million, 2017: $8.5 million (Option Year)018: Free Agent

    Not trying to call Prolate out, but I still don't think people get the financials in all of this.



    Ledarius Webb, though, was never the corner that Talib has been the last two seasons. 

    Webb is good, and was overpaid a little but. He doesn't look as good this season, that is for sure. But a lot of that has to do with the general decay of Baltimore's defense altogether.

    YPSnap can skyrocket for any corner if they lose safety help. 

    Here is the rider about that deal ... Webb only received $20 million guaranteed ($10 mil in a bonus that is prorated through the first three seasons and $10 mil in salary that comes in the first two seasons). Those numbers look high, but after 2014 ... he is basically off the books for Baltimore. 

    But ... if I could sign Talib for that ^ deal, through 2018, I would. It would represent a great value for NE in having a consistent presence, and Talib is at the right age for it as well. 

    He's also a much better corner than Webb for what NE does. 

    The priority is less about Talib, than keeping Talib and Dennard together in a way that makes sense financially. 

     
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