# The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

A win... a loss... There are 14 more games to go!

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Your logic and your mathematics are flawed. If a heads/tails flip were made and came up heads a large number of times--say, 5,000 in a row--then there is something other than chance involved. The coin could be weighted to fall with the head side up, or the flip could be calibrated to rotate a fixed number of times at each toss. So your proper bet would be to call heads for flip number 5001.
Posted by Deanthedream

That isn't what he is saying. He is saying that the odds of each flip are 50/50 every time because each flip is mutually exclusive. It doesn't matter what happened before. He used 50,000 as a very large sample to drive the point home that each coin toss has the same odds. Of course, the Law of Large Numbers would indicate that not every one of those throws would be the same outcome.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

Talkin heads still tryin to convince borderline fans that this is the "game of the year" for their ratings.Another smackdown in the meadowlands.Nothing else.Going to be a lot of broke NY'ers come Sunday night.LMAO.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

I think what this means is that we've exhausted all the possible pre-game topics. Sunday get here already!

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Talkin heads still tryin to convince borderline fans that this is the "game of the year" for their ratings.Another smackdown in the meadowlands.Nothing else.Going to be a lot of broke NY'ers come Sunday night.LMAO.
Posted by cowtherabbit-

Unless they took the Pats...

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The theory that the odds are in the Jets' favor because of the 8 game win streak is obviously false, unless Belichick has video taped the Jets signals, in which case I would go with deanthedream's weighted coin theory and bet on the Pats.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : That isn't what he is saying. He is saying that the odds of each flip are 50/50 every time because each flip is mutually exclusive. It doesn't matter what happened before. He used 50,000 as a very large sample to drive the point home that each coin toss has the same odds. Of course, the Law of Large Numbers would indicate that not every one of those throws would be the same outcome.
Posted by EnochRoot

Enoch, you are mistaken. The odds are NOT 50/50 if factors other than the laws of chance are in play, such as using a weighted coin. Have you ever heard of loaded dice? They'll come up sevens every time. I am merely pointing out the obvious mathematical fact that, if heads comes up 5,000 or 50,000 times in a row, something other than chance is clearly in play. And as far as the Jets and Patriots are concerned, this is most certainly the case. The Pats have won because they were the superior team. The fact that the Pats have won eight in a row has no bearing on how the next game will turn out, and attempting to use statistical odds as a basis for one's reasoning is faulty.

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In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
The Pats have won because they were the superior team.
Posted by Deanthedream

Stop drinking the Kool-Aid as if the NFL is on the complete up and up. They've won 8 in a row in NJ because they have the superior coach who did what he had to do to win including video taping the Jets signals. Was that Belichick's weighted coin? Could be.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
Umm, there are no odds that indicate that this game is in the Jets favor because the Pats have won 8 in a row at NJ. Otherwise, as Vegas has the Pats , I am not sure what odds you are trying to convey.
Posted by EnochRoot

Enoch... maybe instead of using the term "odds", I could have used "the probability of the Jets winning is in their favor".  The point is the longer the Pats continue to win in NJ, the higher the chance they will lose eventually.  There is no such thing as staying undedeated forever.  Jets players and fans just hope that eventually they'll win and are thinking this skid has to end sometime.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

• In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Stop drinking the Kool-Aid as if the NFL is on the complete up and up. They've won 8 in a row in NJ because they have the superior coach who did what he had to do to win including video taping the Jets signals. Was that Belichick's weighted coin? Could be.
Posted by scoobs7

• "We do the same thing every week in preparation. We watch quarterbacks and listen to his cadence to try to get an edge. That's what everybody does. I've played on two teams before coming here, it's nothing different. Somebody is trying to make a story out of nothing." Vonnie Holiday,Miami Dolphins at the time of the statement.
• Having trouble posting the link but type"Dolphins bootleg tapes NFL" on google and it should be the first article from the Sun-Sentinel.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Apples and oranges my friend, Huskies are not the Jets.  We are talking about on any given Sunday one PRO team can beat another...Well unless we are talking about the Lions vs The Pats.

Don't you mean the Lions vs "ab ny team that has ever played football"?
Too bad for Tampa Bay that this Detroit team wasn't around in Tampa's inaugural season - lol.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Hey scoob,read this before you make any more"video taping signal comments" "We do the same thing every week in preparation. We watch quarterbacks and listen to his cadence to try to get an edge. That's what everybody does. I've played on two teams before coming here, it's nothing different. Somebody is trying to make a story out of nothing." Vonnie Holiday,Miami Dolphins at the time of the statement. Having trouble posting the link but type"Dolphins bootleg tapes NFL" on google and it should be the first article from the Sun-Sentinel.
Posted by cowtherabbit-

Then I guess every coach will be fined \$250,000 and every team \$500,000.

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In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Then I guess every coach will be fined \$250,000 and every team \$500,000.
Posted by scoobs7

It's not what they recorded but where they recorded it from.NE broke the rules and paid the price.After reading that article from a legitimate source with REAL player and coach comments,I hope your view of spygate has changed.I'm completely against cheating,but stealing calls via audio/video taping has been going on for decades,by every team.

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In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
NE broke the rules and paid the price.
Posted by cowtherabbit-

I rest my case.

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In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : I rest my case.
Posted by scoobs7

Do you also agree that video/audio taping other team's signals to try and gain a competitive edge is something all teams do?

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

The odds opened on 15th Sep 6 pts in NE's favor. They have since been tightening and are currently 3.5 in NE's favor. That's an indication the market thinks this will be a VERY close game.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Enoch... maybe instead of using the term "odds", I could have used "the probability of the Jets winning is in their favor".  The point is the longer the Pats continue to win in NJ, the higher the chance they will lose eventually.  There is no such thing as staying undedeated forever.  Jets players and fans just hope that eventually they'll win and are thinking this skid has to end sometime.
Posted by agcsbill

agcs,

Probability and odds are interchangeable. Mathematically it doesn't matter how long a streak is - no team is probabilistically due to lose or win based on the previous number of wins or losses.

Just look up "gambler's fallacy" or "law of averages" in Google.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Enoch, you are mistaken. The odds are NOT 50/50 if factors other than the laws of chance are in play, such as using a weighted coin. Have you ever heard of loaded dice? They'll come up sevens every time. I am merely pointing out the obvious mathematical fact that, if heads comes up 5,000 or 50,000 times in a row, something other than chance is clearly in play. And as far as the Jets and Patriots are concerned, this is most certainly the case. The Pats have won because they were the superior team. The fact that the Pats have won eight in a row has no bearing on how the next game will turn out, and attempting to use statistical odds as a basis for one's reasoning is faulty.
Posted by Deanthedream
Enoch, you are mistaken. The odds are NOT 50/50 if factors other than the laws of chance are in play, such as using a weighted coin. Have you ever heard of loaded dice? They'll come up sevens every time.

This is a departure from my original post on the fallacy that the Jets are due.

I was explaining to you what the intent of the previous poster was under a fair game and why he used such a large number. He was really just saying that the odds in a fair flip are always 50/50 for each flip. That's it.

Neither I nor the poster whose intent I was explaining used any factors beyond a fair game nor did we say "if factors other than the laws of chance" were in play. You threw that in for your own purposes. So, no, I am not mistaken. You are just trying to argue a different point.

The fact that the Pats have won eight in a row has no bearing on how the next game will turn out, and attempting to use statistical odds as a basis for one's reasoning is faulty.

This is what I have been saying. I have actually stated it several times. You may want to read more than one post.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/patriots-@-jets.cfm/date/9-20-09/time/1300#N The odds opened on 15th Sep 6 pts in NE's favor. They have since been tightening and are currently 3.5 in NE's favor. That's an indication the market thinks this will be a VERY close game.
Posted by murghkhor

Correct me if I am wrong in the terminology as I don't gamble on sports, but I don't think the Pats are 3.5 to 1 in favor of winning. I think the term is "points" vice "odds". They are just expected to win by more than 3.5 points.

Does Vegas call it "odds" when referring to points?

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : agcs, Probability and odds are interchangeable. Mathematically it doesn't matter how long a streak is - no team is probabilistically due to lose or win based on the previous number of wins or losses.  Just look up "gambler's fallacy" or "law of averages" in Google.
Posted by EnochRoot

Wow....  and all I was trying to say is...  "one day, the Jets will win in NJ, so don't get upset if they do today."

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Wow....  and all I was trying to say is...  "one day, the Jets will win in NJ, so don't get upset if they do today."
Posted by agcsbill

Zoinks. You didn't even look it up. I give up. Can't even lead some horses to water.

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....:
In Response to Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor.... : Zoinks. You didn't even look it up. I give up. Can't even lead some horses to water.
Posted by EnochRoot

What are the odds I'll drink that water??!!  LOL..  enjoy the game and the Pats continuing dominance over the Jets in NJ!!  (-;

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Re: The Odds are in the Jets' favor....

Should be god game filled with gang green having there limp lifeless bodies dragged off the field,while the Pats pick their teeth with the bones shards of their prey. It's going to be the last game for the Pats at the swamplands so hopefully we will execute with extreme prejudice,give no quarter ask none.

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