The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.



    ONly if they shift their philososhy and get outside their box...  Look at last weeks play calling IN the thread "what problem with Play Calling"  .  It's all right there for you all to look at...  Patriots went spread-empty with 14 point lead ...

    Oops ... there goes your wishful theory.

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.



    There is a lot of truth to this.  Generally, the teams that run a lot have strong defenses.  If you give up a lot of points, you have to score a lot of points to win and that rarely means pounding the ball.  

    One thing that should give us pause, though, is that the Ravens have not been a great offensive team all year.  Rice is running poorly, the receiving corp isn't great, and Flacco has had an off year and is now clearly hobbled by injury.  The defense performed well, but how great a test was this?  

    The Ravens game was a unique situation. It's not what we'll be facing every week.  We passed on 63% of snaps against the Broncos (and oddly the run-first crowd did't complain).  If we're behind against an explosive offense, that will be what we do. 

     

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.



    ONly if they shift their philososhy and get outside their box...  Look at last weeks play calling IN the thread "what problem with Play Calling"  .  It's all right there for you all to look at...  Patriots went spread-empty with 14 point lead ...

    Oops ... there goes your wishful theory.



    Yeah, and it worked . . . 

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from coolade2. Show coolade2's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.



    ONly if they shift their philososhy and get outside their box...  Look at last weeks play calling IN the thread "what problem with Play Calling"  .  It's all right there for you all to look at...  Patriots went spread-empty with 14 point lead ...

    Oops ... there goes your wishful theory.



    Yeah, and it worked . . . 




    Might want to revisit that 2nd and 3rd quarter playcalling results ...

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    In response to coolade2's comment:

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    That's right - Defense.

    You want balance of run and pass?   It works great in theory and it's a worthy objective.

    However, too much is being made of last week's Ravens game.  If the Pats had run with that kind of efficiency all season they would have been more successful, right?  

    No.

    What stood out about last week was the best game by the Pats defense all season.  If they can continue to keep the other team from turning it into a video-game of Passing for Points, particularly in the first half, then the Pats can feature the run without falling far behind.

    But if the Pats fall behind early by double-digits, as has happened too often this year, you can expect a heavy pass/run ratio to get back in, and stay in the game.



    ONly if they shift their philososhy and get outside their box...  Look at last weeks play calling IN the thread "what problem with Play Calling"  .  It's all right there for you all to look at...  Patriots went spread-empty with 14 point lead ...

    Oops ... there goes your wishful theory.



    Yeah, and it worked . . . 




    Might want to revisit that 2nd and 3rd quarter playcalling results ...



    Yep . . . let's look at those.  Which sequence is most interesting to you?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from Beantowne. Show Beantowne's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from patsbandwagonsince76. Show patsbandwagonsince76's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    Agree with op.

    I remember the all-run drive that essentially ate up clock and put the dagger into the Ravens. Also remember a long stretch after the pats got 17 pts with a few stalled drives. Most teams would have climbed back into the game in that time.

     

    Think it is difficult to know what pass-run balance will work until it is tried. From the results of last game I am sure the Patriots will get a bit more confidence in the run and use it more. In hind site it is easy to ask 'why didn't they go all run and beat up on the Ravens earlier?' If you have a lead and can stay on the field with the run it is far superior to passing, however, even the worst run defense can stop the best run offense if they key on it so the answer is not simple. The threat of running and passing always has to be on the table to be a successful offense. Infact I would go onto say the threat of the screen, the long pass, the medium pass and the run into he middle and around the side (and for some teams the QB scramble) all need to be possible  from under center or shotgun!

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 



    In the SB years, that only applied to the D. They identified what the opposing O's strengths and weakenesses were and figured out a way to make it one dimensional. 

    The O under Weiss was based on doing what the opposing D least expected them to do.

    That has changed a lot over the last 10 years. Back in the SB years, TB was an unknown. Nobody knew what his strengths are. Since then, the Pats has probably been the most studied team in the NFL. TB's true abilities are now well udnerstood. His tendencies, including his impatience every now and then, probably well charted. 

    Prolate mentioned that in the CLE game, TB got sacked in play action. That is actually a sure sign that the other team does not even bother defending the run, because they know the probability of TB will pass in that situation is upwards of 75%, regardless of the RB in the back.

    In other words, the D does not even have to work to make the Pats one dimensional in critical stages of teh game. The Pats does it for them.

    The big change that happened over the past few years, that should allow them to beat what Ds do to them, is the acquisititon of RBs who can actually make teams, who overfocus on the pass, pay dearly. 

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to patsbandwagonsince76's comment:

    Agree with op.

    I remember the all-run drive that essentially ate up clock and put the dagger into the Ravens. Also remember a long stretch after the pats got 17 pts with a few stalled drives. Most teams would have climbed back into the game in that time.

     

    Think it is difficult to know what pass-run balance will work until it is tried. From the results of last game I am sure the Patriots will get a bit more confidence in the run and use it more. In hind site it is easy to ask 'why didn't they go all run and beat up on the Ravens earlier?' If you have a lead and can stay on the field with the run it is far superior to passing, however, even the worst run defense can stop the best run offense if they key on it so the answer is not simple. The threat of running and passing always has to be on the table to be a successful offense. Infact I would go onto say the threat of the screen, the long pass, the medium pass and the run into he middle and around the side (and for some teams the QB scramble) all need to be possible  from under center or shotgun!



    That is key. The question is whether they gained enough confidence to stick to the run more in critical downs. They ran on a good run D. Hopefully, that was enough to gain them that confidence.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from oklahomapatriot. Show oklahomapatriot's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows


    Personally I think the defense played good becasue they had a lead thorughout the game-they could probably gamble more and blitz, it looks like everything they were doing was working, thanks to the lead.

    That's why BB needs to stop the stupidty of deferreing and take the ball first and score

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from seattlepat70. Show seattlepat70's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to kansaspatriot's comment:


    Personally I think the defense played good becasue they had a lead thorughout the game-they could probably gamble more and blitz, it looks like everything they were doing was working, thanks to the lead.

    That's why BB needs to stop the stupidty of deferreing and take the ball first and score



    Historically (last 8 years), they revert back to a soft zone when they enter the fourth with a lead of more than a TD. 

     
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  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 



    In the SB years, that only applied to the D. They identified what the opposing O's strengths and weakenesses were and figured out a way to make it one dimensional. 

    The O under Weiss was based on doing what the opposing D least expected them to do.

    That has changed a lot over the last 10 years. Back in the SB years, TB was an unknown. Nobody knew what his strengths are. Since then, the Pats has probably been the most studied team in the NFL. TB's true abilities are now well udnerstood. His tendencies, including his impatience every now and then, probably well charted. 

    Prolate mentioned that in the CLE game, TB got sacked in play action. That is actually a sure sign that the other team does not even bother defending the run, because they know the probability of TB will pass in that situation is upwards of 75%, regardless of the RB in the back.

    In other words, the D does not even have to work to make the Pats one dimensional in critical stages of teh game. The Pats does it for them.

    The big change that happened over the past few years, that should allow them to beat what Ds do to them, is the acquisititon of RBs who can actually make teams, who overfocus on the pass, pay dearly. 



    Excellent post. Very well said.

     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:

     

    In response to seattlepat70's comment:

     

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 

     



    In the SB years, that only applied to the D. They identified what the opposing O's strengths and weakenesses were and figured out a way to make it one dimensional. 

     

    The O under Weiss was based on doing what the opposing D least expected them to do.

    That has changed a lot over the last 10 years. Back in the SB years, TB was an unknown. Nobody knew what his strengths are. Since then, the Pats has probably been the most studied team in the NFL. TB's true abilities are now well udnerstood. His tendencies, including his impatience every now and then, probably well charted. 

    Prolate mentioned that in the CLE game, TB got sacked in play action. That is actually a sure sign that the other team does not even bother defending the run, because they know the probability of TB will pass in that situation is upwards of 75%, regardless of the RB in the back.

    In other words, the D does not even have to work to make the Pats one dimensional in critical stages of teh game. The Pats does it for them.

    The big change that happened over the past few years, that should allow them to beat what Ds do to them, is the acquisititon of RBs who can actually make teams, who overfocus on the pass, pay dearly. 

     



    Excellent post. Very well said.

     



    I know that this board is overflowing with posters who think the offensive play calling is inept, despite a top offense every year and 12 to 14 wins.  But really, Cinncinati and Cleveland got their sacks by not defending the run?  Guys these weren't coverage sacks.  They were the result of aggressive attacks on the blockers at the LOS.  They would have worked equally well against the run.  The fact is, when they see Brady under center they know it's likely a run or a play action pass.  Both can be stopped by LBs aggressively hitting the holes.  That's what happened.  The fact is, when play action works, the LBs freeze.  When the LBs are aggressive, that can kill the run and kill the play action pass.  What really is the problem in these games is the same problem we've had in Giants games.  Aggressive defensive fronts give this team problems.  It has nothing to do with the play calls. 

    Two of the plays below were stuffed runs (2 yards and no gain); two were play action passes that ended in sacks.  Which were which?

     

     

     

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to DeadAhead's comment:

    My god are you dumb.  Go watch sb 38, Stupid.

    [/QUOTE]

    Thanks for another thoughtful post.

    Here are (again) some facts that are getting in the way of your narrative.

    Pats led at halftime 14-10.

    First drive of 2nd half, 3 and out (2 runs 1 pass) - FAIL

    Second drive, 1 first down, then 3 and out on 3 running plays - FAIL

    Third drive, mix of run and pass (5 pass 4 run) - TD Pats!  21-10.  This TD was early in the 4th quarter.   

    Carolina proceeded to score 19 points in the 4th quarter, on drives of 80, 81, and 90 yards.  That is not good defense by any measure.

    Thankfully, TB, AV, and the offense were able to pull out the victory.

     

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    I know that this board is overflowing with posters who think the offensive play calling is inept, despite a top offense every year and 12 to 14 wins.  But really, Cinncinati and Cleveland got their sacks by not defending the run?  Guys these weren't coverage sacks.  They were the result of aggressive attacks on the blockers at the LOS.  They would have worked equally well against the run.  The fact is, when they see Brady under center they know it's likely a run or a play action pass.  Both can be stopped by LBs aggressively hitting the holes.  That's what happened.  The fact is, when play action works, the LBs freeze.  When the LBs are aggressive, that can kill the run and kill the play action pass.  What really is the problem in these games is the same problem we've had in Giants games.  Aggressive defensive fronts give this team problems.  It has nothing to do with the play calls. 

     

    Two of the plays below were stuffed runs (2 yards and no gain); two were play action passes that ended in sacks.  Which were which?

    [pics removed]

     



    Well, it's a good start that the personnel/formation alone is not tipping off the defense to run vs. pass.

    The only area I disagree with you on is the area I highlighted in blue.  I can't prove this quantitatively, but I know it's true (ha) ... earlier in TB's career and development the Pats featured more screens of all types.  This is a primary weapon against aggressive front 7's.  The Pats have used this weapon less, and with less effectiveness in the past few years.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to CatfishHunter's comment:

    In response to prolate0spheroid's comment:

    I know that this board is overflowing with posters who think the offensive play calling is inept, despite a top offense every year and 12 to 14 wins.  But really, Cinncinati and Cleveland got their sacks by not defending the run?  Guys these weren't coverage sacks.  They were the result of aggressive attacks on the blockers at the LOS.  They would have worked equally well against the run.  The fact is, when they see Brady under center they know it's likely a run or a play action pass.  Both can be stopped by LBs aggressively hitting the holes.  That's what happened.  The fact is, when play action works, the LBs freeze.  When the LBs are aggressive, that can kill the run and kill the play action pass.  What really is the problem in these games is the same problem we've had in Giants games.  Aggressive defensive fronts give this team problems.  It has nothing to do with the play calls. 

     

    Two of the plays below were stuffed runs (2 yards and no gain); two were play action passes that ended in sacks.  Which were which?

    [pics removed]

     



    Well, it's a good start that the personnel/formation alone is not tipping off the defense to run vs. pass.

    The only area I disagree with you on is the area I highlighted in blue.  I can't prove this quantitatively, but I know it's true (ha) ... earlier in TB's career and development the Pats featured more screens of all types.  This is a primary weapon against aggressive front 7's.  The Pats have used this weapon less, and with less effectiveness in the past few years.



    I do agree that the number of screens is probably lower now than in the past.  I will say they seem inconsistent in their execution of screens now.  When I was looking through the Cincinnati film to pull those pictures above, I chanced on a screen pass that should have been a good gainer, but Bolden dropped the ball and they had to punt.  Those kind of execution flaws really hurt. 

    I wonder if the coaches feel the O line is good getting downfield and blocking on those plays too?  You need backs who can catch and run in space and O linemen who are reasonably quick and agile.  Maybe it's just the personnel that's the problem?

     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from melswitts. Show melswitts's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows


    You start the game trying to run if you feel you need to soften up a D with superior D line..which the Bills have...that can really rush the passer...they rush the passer so well because their DB's are excellent...they can single cover  WR's, and since we are currently without our all world TE who would normally draw double coverage, expect many short yardage third downs with 8 in the box....that means you MUST gash them on first and second down...even if you aren't successful for a couple of drives, you have to establish the POSSIBILITY of a running game....that makes the play -action possible, also makes them guess how to play thrid downs....Then you can work TB's greatest talent, ADJUSTING THE CALL AT THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE, trying to catch the Bills DBs in single coverage and slamming them with short passes before the pass rush gets untracked...

    After that first few drives, the adjustments begin...depending on who has an early lead will dictate what happens after that...but given that it's in Foxboro, and that they are playing for nothing, I look for us to be able to run early and often....

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheGuyWithDaThing. Show TheGuyWithDaThing's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    If the Pats could connect on just 1 or 2 deep passes (not even deep, but just 20-25 yards downfield), the screen game (especially the WR screens to Edelman, Amendola and Boyce) would open up like crazy. The screen game is definitely a dimension that needs to be taken into account here.

    The Pats can't mindlessly run the ball when they're down, and they shouldn't be throwing the ball around with a double digit lead, either. They should be taking what they're given early on. If the other team is in their base defense when the Pats have 3 WR on the field, then it's pretty obvious what should happen. They also shouldn't be shying away from the run when the opponent is in the nickel and the Pats are in a heavy-ish set (22 personnel). 

    Rusty, if you think that "sticking to the run" when the team is down by double digits in the second half, you're kidding yourself. I agree with you on a lot of points, and in general I agree with your opinion on  that the Patriots don't run the ball enough, but the problem is that you make it a blanket statement. I think if the Pats were running the ball in the 2nd half against Denver, you'd be the only one thinking it was a good thing.

    Also, Brady put up crazy numbers in SB 38, so I have no idea what you're talking about there. Yes, the running game was existent, although not great (35 for 127), but that could also be attributed to the Panthers scoring on huge plays and thus the offense getting the ball back so frequently.

    The Eagles Super bowl was pretty well balanced (28 rush, 33 pass).

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from TheGuyWithDaThing. Show TheGuyWithDaThing's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    Run pass pass run....on those pictures.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to TheGuyWithDaThing's comment:

    Run pass pass run....on those pictures.



    Two right, two wrong . . . it's tough to tell, though, because the defensive looks can go either way, just like the offensive play can go either way. 

     

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from mthurl. Show mthurl's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 



    Yup, he's always been that way and he always will.

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from CatfishHunter. Show CatfishHunter's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    In response to mthurl's comment:

    In response to Beantowne's comment:

    No the Patriots will run as much the game plan allows...Under Belicheck the Patriots game plan always is based on the strength / weaknesses of the opponent. 



    Yup, he's always been that way and he always will.




    Not really.

    While I agree that the first few drives are a reflection of the game plan, you can't ask me to believe that they stubbornly stick to that when they fall behind Denver 24-0.

    After the first few drives they can see what's working, what's not, look at the scoreboard, etc. and adapt accordingly.

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from zbellino. Show zbellino's posts

    Re: The Pats will Run as much as their Defense allows

    Well, that and how well they run the ball play to play. 

    If you are gashing the opponent every other play for 6+ yards ... keep running. If you are stringing together -1 yard runs like NE does sometimes, those are just like sacks. A loss of down and nothing. 

    At the end of the day, no play works all the time ... you call the ones that work the most in a given game if you want to win.

     
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