Thoughts on Pats Season Record:

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    [QUOTE]Ronk, Was kinda brainstorming and despite you pointing out the youth on our team I can not figure out how we get worse than last year by 3 games. Think you said 7-9. Now we have the same inexperienced team as last year this year and they were good for 10, we are not older right? Can you elaborate further? I take your point is that A. Thomas, T Warren, Mankins, Kaczur, and Galloway = 3 wins. Maybe we can pull some stats that show how they contributed to those 3 wins last year?
    Posted by Asher77[/QUOTE]
    Asher, I said the Pats would win between 7 and 9 games due to strength of schedule and the fact that 12 out of 17 defensive players most likely to see snaps are either first or 2nd year players.
    I do not think that AD and TWaren were worth 3 wins. Both were on the down side, as was Green.
    This years front 7 is now inexperienced and depleted with injuries. Wright is a better rotation player than starter. Wilfork is most effective when seeing 50% of the snaps. Same with Banta Cain. The d vackfield s/b improved, but how do they hold up with such an ineffective front 7?
    The actual strength of the team is OL dpth, but that is thinning out with the Mankins/Kaczur situations.
    Pats do have a few cupcakes (Bills 2 times and Browns) and play the Thanksgiving so do have the subsequent long week. Still feels like 8 wins to me, maybe 9 wins (which could win the division)...that being said 7 wins is also not a surprise.
    Alas, dont be surprised if the much talked about Seymour pick turns out to be AFTER the Pats pick! Meaning the Raiders have a better record than the Pats.
     
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    I think your points are valid as to inexperience and 9 wins is not to far fetched if things go bad, i don't see us falling below this because the offense can carry us.

    My question is did we not have these same concerns on defense last year as well and still manage to pull off 10 wins?
    The only legitimate player I see lost is T Warren and I thought he seemed a shell of himself last year thus not much missing much if he is replaced with G Warren.

    We are not depleted with injuries? Kaczur was a backup as he had lost his spot to Vollmer, and T Warren you admitted wasn't much last year. Who else?
     
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    12 - 4 , 12 wins should win the division
    Miami 11 - 5, they won't sukkk
    Jets 9 - 7, this year they earn 9
    Bills  3 - 13, ok maybe 0-16 is more likely
     
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    12-4, have been reading how all this youth has rejuvenated Brady and have seen him do a few things that he hasn't done in a few years. 

    My only concern is the ends, I think there's enough depth there now.  Not a full time starter but a rotation.  OLB as something is something to watch but I was very happy with Murrell's performance against the Saints starters.  MLBs this year is a power house of depth, against running downs I can see 4 MLBs on the field at the same time, from R to L Guyton Mayo Spikes McKenzie. 

    On the O, these guys are ready hope the line is figured out but as the D line there's some depth and guys who can play multiple positions.  L and R tackles are set but the middle needs work.  Been saying for a while, watch out for Bussey he will earn a starting job.
     
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    Lets all hope that I am wrong. The away schedule is murderous. Indy, Minny,Ravens, Cincy at home is no picnic. Figures this is the year we don't get Denver! Figure we need an upset win at home to get into the playoffs. Also figure Rodgers, Manning and Favre could put up 30 points on our defense. Lets say payback on the Ravens and Pats get in!
    Sept. 12: Cincinnati, 1 pm W
    Sept. 19: at Jets, 4:15 p.m L
    Sept. 26: Buffalo, 1 p.m W
    Oct. 4: at Miami, 8:30 p.m L
    Oct. 10: BYE
    Oct. 17: Baltimore, 1 p.m L 
    Oct. 24: at San Diego, 4:15 p.m L
    Oct. 31: Minnesota, 4:15 p.m L
    Nov. 7: at Cleveland, 1 p.m W
    Nov. 14: at Pittsburgh, 8:20 p.m L
    Nov. 21: Indianapolis, 4:15 p.m L
    Nov. 25: at Detroit 12:30 W
    Dec. 6  : NYJets     8:30 W
    Dec 12  : at Chic    1:00 W
    Dec. 19  : Green Bay  8:20 L
    Dec. 26  : at Buffalo  1:00 W
    Jan 2     : Miami        1:00 W

     
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    Giving each game a percentage of likely success I come out with 10-11 wins. Teams are made from the bottom up - from the line back; D and O. Not having their best DE (Ty Warren) or their best OL (Mankins) is not something to minimize when you realize football is essentially a game of fundamentals. The questionable status of Mankins replacement (Kazur) may feel less significant, and it well may be if one of the younger players steps up, but it doesn't help. With those healthy at this point in time (every team will eventually suffer injuries) I would have ended up with at least 11-12.

    It is the quality of other key components of the team that keeps them with such a solid number of wins in spite of what appears to be a hugely difficult schedule.

    Having said all that there are too many variables for all teams to really have a solid idea beyond whether their basic units (O,D, ST) are weak, average, above average or strong. Certainly it is easy to see the basic strengths and weaknesses - and questions that need to be answered for most teams. For the Patriots the questions started out with:
    1. Will they be able to not only generate a good passrush during the course of the season but will they be able to manufacture it in key situations agasint strong teams
    2. Will the OLB be able to set the edge while supplying the needed passrush above
    3. Will enough of the young members of the secondary "get it" enough to turn an inconsistant secondary into a strength (obviously passrush will play a role here... that's the very point of it)
    4. Will the O be able to make key short yardage first downs and touchdowns. There were quite a few critical plays during the course of games last season when they were failures in this too overlooked (not sexy?) aspect of the game. They were much less successful when Neil was out of the lineup. Will a loss of Mankins keep the quality of their short yardage game down? Will Neil, againg, be able to play relatively injury free? Will the use of Crumpler and the 2 rookie TEs help (either by using one of the TEs as lead blockers between the tackles or by focusing on running behind a tackle and TE rather than straight ahead)?
    5. The questions about the receiving core appear to be abating. Still, just how good will Endelman (or Tate, or even Price) and the trio of TEs be? While Welker's return is very promising, the DEGREE of quality (not just quantity of catches) can offset other weaknesses and translate into keeping a win in the win column or turning a loss into a win.

    So - I expect 11 wins (taking the optimistic side of 10-11). Pleasant surprises (anywhere!) could push that. Multiple pleasant surprises can really push it - a truth for EVERY team. A disappointment - including a key injury (say for example to Moss or Light or even Gostkowski... or Maroney is havng a break out season and then goes down for the count - they may replace him but would the pleasant surprise of a break out season be matchable from the other backs - all of whom are good but none of whom are feature backs at this point).
     
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    Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record:

    I don't think this years Pats will lose to all the top 2009 teams this year. Especially since all those games except San Diego are at home. FYI, don't see Pittsburgh as a top team and we'll beat them this year.
     
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    [QUOTE]I don't think this years Pats will lose to all the top 2009 teams this year. Especially since all those games except San Diego are at home. FYI, don't see Pittsburgh as a top team and we'll beat them this year.
    Posted by Wizardsjag[/QUOTE]

    I expect you are right about Pittsburgh. Not simply because they have to go 4-6 games without their topflight QB but the loss of Santonio Holmes will show and the fact that the rest f the team does not appear to have the quality they had 2 years ago. That they will be a well coached and physically tough team, able to keep themselves in more games than the weak sisters of the league is exected. But I would not put them in the First tier.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : I expect you are right about Pittsburgh. Not simply because they have to go 4-6 games without their topflight QB but the loss of Santonio Holmes will show and the fact that the rest f the team does not appear to have the quality they had 2 years ago. That they will be a well coached and physically tough team, able to keep themselves in more games than the weak sisters of the league is exected. But I would not put them in the First tier.
    Posted by portfolio1[/QUOTE]

    I see Pittsburgh as a 8-8 team, that will probably start out 1-3 then they have a pretty tough stretch of games right as Rothlisberger comes back so they'll IMO they'll could start out 2-7 or 3-6 after the Pats game before they rebound.
     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from ronk1. Show ronk1's posts

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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : 285 points on a rebuilding D. 3rd in the AFC. The D led the leaggue in rushing TDs allowed, so no one was really running on them there. They were good there. They were poor in pass coverage in the red zone. If they can nail that down, which I really feel they can, both with the improved pass rush, better health and more continuity on D and in the secondary, they'll beat the 285. The Indy, New Olreans and even the Houston game can all be improved upon in terms of not allowing 30 points. We'll see. I expect a progresssion here, not some bizarre regression with an increase of depth, experience in  the system and more athleticism at BB's disposal. I'd gladly pay someone $100 if this team, led by Brady, wins 7 games. What a ridiculous prediction.
    Posted by russgriswold[/QUOTE]
    What foolish statistics. What diff does it make how many points you allow if you still lost 7 games? No one ran on them because they passed so well against them. No front 7 pressure, inexperienced DB's equates no need to bother to run. Did BB agree with "285 points allowed" when he went for it against the Colts? When a team did decide to have the mindset to run, unfortunately see last years playoff loss to the Ravens.
    Why do you think they will have an improved pass rush this year? Where is the increased depth?
    Last year: Green, Wilfork, TWarren, Wright, Pryor, Burgess
    This year: GWarren, Wilfork, Wright, Pryor, Brace, Lewis, Deadrick
    Is this the increased depth and athleticism? Face it, last year the DL stunk! And this year might be more of the same!
    Last year: Alexander,Banta Cain, Guyton, Mayo, Ninkovich,Seau, Thomas, Woods
    This year:Alexander, Banta Cain, Guyton, Mayo, Ninkovich,Woods, Spikes, Cunningham, Murrell. Do first year players (rookie or first year in the system) Spikes, Cunningham and Murrell upgrade last years group to passable mediocrity?
    11,12,13 wins in this division with this schedule? The easy part of the schedule includes at Bears in December, at Bills in December and at Lions on Thanksgiving. Those are the EASY GAMES! I hate the Jets. I hate Rex Ryan. I hate Bill Parcells. Are you expecting more than 2-2 in these 4 games? 
     
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : Lets all hope that I am wrong. The away schedule is murderous. Indy, Minny,Ravens, Cincy at home is no picnic. Figures this is the year we don't get Denver! Figure we need an upset win at home to get into the playoffs. Also figure Rodgers, Manning and Favre could put up 30 points on our defense. Lets say payback on the Ravens and Pats get in! Sept. 12: Cincinnati, 1 pm  W Sept. 19: at Jets, 4:15 p.m L Sept. 26: Buffalo, 1 p.m W Oct. 4: at Miami, 8:30 p.m L Oct. 10: BYE Oct. 17: Baltimore, 1 p.m L   Oct. 24: at San Diego, 4:15 p.m L Oct. 31: Minnesota, 4:15 p.m L Nov. 7: at Cleveland, 1 p.m W Nov. 14: at Pittsburgh, 8:20 p.m L Nov. 21: Indianapolis, 4:15 p.m L Nov. 25: at Detroit 12:30 W Dec. 6  : NYJets     8:30 W Dec 12  : at Chic    1:00 W Dec. 19  : Green Bay  8:20  L Dec. 26  : at Buffalo  1:00 W Jan 2     : Miami        1:00 W
    Posted by ronk1[/QUOTE]

       Ronk you have us losing 6 out of 7 games in a 8 week stretch including the bye. I am assuming you are factoring in some kind of food poisoning in the Pats organization or perhaps a multi team member kidnapping.

    I suppose Belichick,Brady,Moss,Welker,Maroney,Mayo,Merriweather AND Vince Wilfork could be riding the same plane through the Bermuda Triangle and then we might see the Pats lose 6 out of 7 games.

    SIX OUT OF SEVEN GAMES? Have you lost your way sir?
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : May I ask what your education level is? There is no "easy" game in the NFL.  The game @ Det and @ Chicago will be tough. Watch. They SHOULD win those, but you can't sleep on the road. Did you watch the Indy game last year when NE's D dominated Indy to the point they were well contained for 55 minutes until flags came out and some late questionable calls got the Colts back into it?  NE had a 13 point lead until the Butler call and this isn't even counting Maroney's fumble on the goal line. So, really, it was a 20 point lead that wasn't. Why would a 1 point loss on the road with BB rebuilding his D be considered a bad sign?  This is a bad sign?  Sorry to be rude, but when you continue to play borderline troll with negative nelly/sky is falling/worst case scenario logic, ignoring BB's approach in the draft, resiging key free agents, a few quiet fere agent moves, etc, and having what appears to be another strong draft, I question what level of education you have. You either some deductive logic issues or are a bitter individual struggling to think clearly as a Pats fan. You appear to need to see the name on the jersey to feel comfortable with how a team will play, v.s. understanding concepts of the game. I am seeing this more and more with what appears to be a slew of bandwagon Pats fans who don't know the game. Do you have a clue how mediocre the pass rush was in 2008 with Adalius Thomas, Seymour and Vrabel?  Guess what? It wasn't better in 2009, but it wasn't worse than 2008's poor rush.  Both were bad and 3 time SB winners Seymour and Vrabel were on that team.  So was Ty Warren.  Just how good were they when JT O'Sullivan sat back and threw easily into zone coverage like Chad Henne did last year?  Yeah. That's what I thought. When you actually look at facts, they aren't good for irrational people or trolls. Shall I continue? Do you know what the word continuity means?  Do you think it's a good thing to have a brand new secondary every year? I don't. I didn't enjoy 2008's secondary or 2009's, overall. 2009's was improved and showed signs of large upside.  Guess what? It's even more experienced now, far deeper and their 1st rd pick is also added to the mix. As is a guy named Arrington who happens to be a STs Ace.   This is the most stable secondary BB has had since 2007 and this is one is faster, deeper and more athletic than that one. You are asking me why I think the pass rush will be better, and I know for a fact the effort we get out of WHOMEVER plays for Adalius's spot, will be BETTER on that aspect alone.  I know this, because it will not be the same or worse. UPGRADE. Combine that upgrade with stability and continuity allowing BB to scheme, Pees being removed from his role (another major upgrade), and those are two more concepts that tilt towards an improvement. For the last time: The Patriots OFFENSE lost a MINIMUM of 3 games last year, upwards of FIVE GAMES. The OFFENSE. Not the defense. The defense expected to have bumps last year, but not as much as we saw compared to last year here in 2010.  You expect as many bumps because why?? NE is deeper at OLB than any team in this division: TBC outperformed Calvin Pace and any Miami OLB in 2009.  FACT Burgess performed at a higher rate within the snap rate v.s. Bryan Thomas of the Jets.  FACT NE drafted Jermaine Cunniningham in the 2nd rd .  NE has a second year system player in Rob Ninkovich who produced when he played.  TBC outperformed Terrell Suggs in Baltimore last year. Stop acting like this is so far down the line from other teams who run a 3-4 because it isn't.  Basically two teams have stud OLBs who run a 3-4 and this is Dallas and Pitt. That's it. GB has Matthews and Hawk, but are paper thin beyond that.  Look around the league. You are blind as a bat or need to have the familiar names on the jersey to make yourself feel good. Vegas has NE at 12-1, if I am not mistaken.  12-1 to win the SB. The Jest are a mysterious 10-1.    Vegas wants your money. On the D Line, Ty Warren is a loss beacuse it affects depth, yes.  However, I thought Jarvis Green showed why he isn't a 3-4 DE.  He failed.  He's gone. I'll take my chances with a driven Mike Wright in that role and see what happens.  Maybe this is the year Mike Wright channels his knowledge and plays somewhat close to what Ty Warren has done here? Is that really out of the realm of possibility? I don't think so.  Since when is Ty Warren this superstar, anyway? So far, Gerard Warren has shown more burst, pocket push and solid edge setting run D in one preseason game than an injured Ty Warren showed me ALL YEAR limping around and getting pasted off the edge. I admire him playing through his issues, but it hurt the team.  In no way am I convinced the QUALITY is lower. Sorry, not buying it. Many players on this D are AT LEAST 1 year in this system. Some are 2+ years in, including the players down the middle with Pro Bowlers/PB Caliber, like Wilfork, Mayo and Merriweather.  Give me a strong middle any day of the week. They are LOADED at MLB. Loaded.  You act like they have no foundation and no signs towards a progression and you are completely incorrect in that assessement. NE lost like 5 games last year by 7 points or less.  How much did this "stellar" offense help a young D learning on the fly? Not much. I fully expect the offense to not comopletely botch scoring opportunities like they did last year. I also fully expect a TOP NOTCH Special Teams group. Did you see Aiken, Arrington and Chung blocking for McCourty twice last week as he ran back two 50+ yard runs? A lot better than Slater running 10 yards into a pile, wasn't it?  Yeah. You have a serious problem with being rational on this topic. If the weakest part of this team is the D, the strongest parts (offense and STs) and those improvements will HELP a young D, not hurt it.
    Posted by russgriswold[/QUOTE]
    I find it humorous you point out how well the defense played in a game they lost giving up 35 points.
    Lets just say we agree to disagree. I see things from last year, from this years practice and from the first preseason game this year, that you do not see, and you see things that I do not see.
    I laugh at the troll comments, while I have been a season ticket holder for the longest of times.
    I am not hoping that I am correct, just saying it as I am seeing it over the past 18 months of watching the Pats.
    I appreciate your passion, I just dont understand the prognasticators predicting 11-14 wins because Brady is on the team and BB coaches the team.
    I think the one thing we can agree on is how experienced the teams of 01-07 were, yet compared to 09 and 10 the roster turn over has been sensational, and needed.
    My feeling is that this roster turn over will take longer to come together than this year, and to compare this years players and this years very difficult schedule to last years players and moderately easy schedule is short sighted.
    No need to question my education level, my profession or my devotion and passion to the Pats. I have been watching them for many, many years, and have the lucky opportunity that my job entails that I am at as many practices as possible.
     Repeat, I hope I am wrong. Unfortunately I do not think that I am.
     
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    [QUOTE]
    Posted by ewhite1065[/QUOTE]
    ewhite, your intelligent observations on the Pats potential record for the upcoming season are earth shattering! wish I had such magnificent insight to ad to the conversation!
    now go back to the Sox boards and complain about Paplbon and Francona! 
     
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    [QUOTE]Still tweaking the numbers, but right now 13.2 victories out of 16.  Just don't ask how the Patriots can win .2 of a victory. 14-2 is just my feeling.  It may take more results for the numbers to catch up with all the new talent, but the first quarter of the New Orleans game gave the Pats a big stride toward 14.  McCourty:  Check.  Edelman blossomed in his second year: check.  Welker, no, not yet.  Spikes, check.  Cunningham, no, not yet.  Tate, Gronk, Hernandez:  maybe New Orleans was concentrating on them.
    Posted by Paul_K[/QUOTE]

    Not impossible but very, very optomistic.

    Seeing as the Vegas over/under line for Pats wins is 9.1, I'd recommend betting the house on the over!
     
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    This looks like Brick from the show The Middle.
     
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    "I laugh at the troll comments, while I have been a season ticket holder for the longest of times."  Ronk1

    Ah ha. Now I see that you must have been in a coma since the Rod Rust days and just awoken a few weeks ago. Tom Brady doesn't lose 6 out of 7 games Budrick.

     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : You do realize the last 14 points were due to a horrendous Def PI call on Darius Butler and on a short field on a botched 4th and 2 spot call, correct? So, this means they were up 34-21 with 5 minutes to go. If you hold a Manning team in that Polian dome to 21 points while you rebuild a defense, that's VERY GOOD and I would take that this season AT HOME. If NE's offense can't put up at least 22 at home, then they dont' deserve to beat the Colts. Last year, the offense should have had over 40 points on the road.  That game was not close and Indy in no way deserved that. It was a total bag job. I don't care what the final score said. I saw that D contain and at times dominate them, only watching the zebras come out of the woodwork at the end. I am not getting into this again. I have given you more than enough substance to support why your outlook is irrationally thin and why mine and others provides a lot of positives. Questioning your education level was necessary because you appeared to not understand my reasoning.   Or, you glossed over the link of thinking used to articulate in order for you to be looking at the glass less than half full, and WHY you have little ammunition to do that. You have said little other than "inexperience".   Smells.
    Posted by russgriswold[/QUOTE]
    INEXPERIENCE + STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE =7 TO 9 WINS. SEEMS PRETTY SIMPLE TO ME 
     
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    The Patriot's will go 2 - 14 this season.  Tom Brady will break both his knees in the third game of the season.

    The Raiders will have a record of 11 - 5.
     
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    [QUOTE]This looks like Brick from the show The Middle.
    Posted by underdoggggg[/QUOTE]

    I had to google that one but  yeah, there is a resemblance.
     
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    [QUOTE]The Patriot's will go 2 - 14 this season.  Tom Brady will break both his knees in the third game of the season. The Raiders will have a record of 11 - 5.
    Posted by Phoenix125[/QUOTE]

    Lets all sing together: "Some where over the rainbow."

    I change my vote from 15-1 to 17-1 (We go back to Oakland 2wice and kick the Raiders a-- using the "tuck" rule just for good measure and cause we can!)
     
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    [QUOTE]
    Posted by ewhite1065[/QUOTE]

    Very nice troll by the way. "the chronic" has season tickets, I guess even trolls have jobs.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : ^^This is what I am envisioning you looking like as a real life troll.  Just because you use capital letters and repeat the same word over and  over doesn't mean you have anything that remotely resembles a point here. NE has plenty of experience all over the field.  Their starting D Line's youngest player is Mike Wright. Jerod Mayo is now in his 3rd season. Bodden is 28. Merriweather is entering his 4th season.   Plenty of experience all throughout each portions of the field. FACT
    Posted by russgriswold[/QUOTE]



    As soon as I saw his prediction I knew he wasn't a fan. The Patriots haven't lost 8 games in over a decade and he has them winning no games in the month of October. I'll let you know the next time I find a Pats fan with a prediction that negative.
     
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    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: Thoughts on Pats Season Record: : Very nice troll by the way. "the chronic" has season tickets, I guess even trolls have jobs.
    Posted by gmbill[/QUOTE]

    Thanks Bill, Just doing my job man.
    Some people probably think I don't have a job with the number of posts I have.
    Right now I just have a good job though.
     
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