Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

  1. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    Folks, the day TB leaves is very close, I know acceptance is hard and denial is plausible but it's real.


    Being a Chemist I run numbers all day. 95% certainty is what I live by. Love to gamble now and then and I don't go against the numbers there either.


    Jimmy Garoppolo is to 95% certainty as TB is to age 40...WTH does that mean...well...it's about the numbers...lets talk about it.


    How many 40 year old QBs are starting in the NFL now? None. Manning is the oldest at 37 and TB is right behind him at 36.


    It's been close to 10 years since a 40 year old started in the NFL (8-10) and you know what they looked every day of it.


    It just doesn't happen, nor will it.


    Talk is talk, will is will...but numbers and history will always speak the truth.


    TB will not violate the laws of probability to age 40....he may think he will..but he won't.


    And more importantly...do any of you actually believe that deep down he really wants to?


    I don't, and never have.


    Jimmy Garoppolo is here because of the 95% certainty rule.


    He is your starter Sept of 2016.


    And don't be shocked if it's Sept of 2015.


    And because of the 95% probability rule Jimmy Garoppolo had to be drafted this year, not next.


    Take in all of TB while you can...because not even TB will break the rule of 95% probability and play to age 40.

     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    Yeah I don't think many of us will argue with you. 


    My question is...what did day 2 of the draft do to improve our chances of getting over the hump we have been so close to overcoming the last 3 years and winning a super bowl while Tom Brady is STILL the QB??,

    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from ghostofjri37. Show ghostofjri37's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    Going strictly by the numbers I would tend to agree with you but based on the eyeball test I think Brady finishes out his contract here if healthy. The one thing I noticed about him starting a couple of years ago was how he changed his body type. He had bulked up in his early 30's and it looks like he has now trimmed down and he looks lanky like he has been working on his core and flexibility. Last year as the season wore on I thought he got better and seemed to be getting stronger. I would say barring major injury he will play effectively for the next 3 years. just my 2 cents.

     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    Manning is 38, but I get your point. There have been a few 40 year old QBs, but in modern history (post-Blanda), really Favre and maybe Warren Moon were the only ones I can remember who started and were reasonably good. 


    Brady has two or three seasons left, so getting Garop now is fine.


    Think of it as if QB is a commodity, a precious metal. The Mallett contract was a hedge against the metal losing value over the last four years. Garop is the next hedge, except it's far more likely that his contract will actually be cashed in.


    They drafted Mallett in a year when they had a lot of picks, so there was little cost. They drafted Garop in a year when the draft is very deep, so they can get good players to fill needs on day 3.  Players who are not much less quality than were available on day 2. That's what a deep draft means.

     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Yeah I don't think many of us will argue with you. 


     


    My question is...what did day 2 of the draft do to improve our chances of getting over the hump we have been so close to overcoming the last 3 years and winning a super bowl while Tom Brady is STILL the QB??,

    [object HTMLDivElement]


    [/QUOTE]

    One has nothing to do with the other. I'm not sure that any of the DL there in the late 2nd were getting us to the SB. We still have today and FA and Vets that will be pieced in that will determine how far we go in January.


    In the meantime you have a matter of equal importance, i,e, who is TB's heir? Jimmy Garoppolo at the East West Game blew everyone's mind in how he stepped onto the field and took over the huddle, ran the offense, called plays, looked every bit a pro QB. he was the star of that game.


    An NFL QB must have "it"....and you know it when you see it. I think he'll show everyone in preseason he's the real deal and the Pats made several teams upset that the Pats took him.

     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to Muzwell's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Manning is 38, but I get your point. There have been a few 40 year old QBs, but in modern history (post-Blanda), really Favre and maybe Warren Moon were the only ones I can remember who started and were reasonably good. 


     


    Brady has two or three seasons left, so getting Garop now is fine.


     


    Think of it as if QB is a commodity, a precious metal. The Mallett contract was a hedge against the metal losing value over the last four years. Garop is the next hedge, except it's far more likely that his contract will actually be cashed in.


     


    They drafted Mallett in a year when they had a lot of picks, so there was little cost. They drafted Garop in a year when the draft is very deep, so they can get good players to fill needs on day 3.  Players who are not much less quality than were available on day 2. That's what a deep draft means.


    [/QUOTE]


    Muz, is it not fair to say that the Pats have fielded offers for Mallett? I think the rumors are real and it's likely the teams have been low balling the Pats and BB has been telling them to go pound sand yes?


    Now with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold the Pats could still dangle Mallett. Or watch Jimmy Garoppolo in pre-season and be comfortable in offering Mallett up then for a 2015 pick?


    BB will let mallett walk as a FA before he lets another team beat him out of fair market value I would think?

     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

     



     My guess is Brady plays this coming year and maybe two more. Of course, no one knows for sure, but the likelihood he plays into his 40s is quite low.  That said, it's far too early to say who his successor will be.  Garappolo gives them a developmental candidate, but it's impossible to say now whether he'll work out.  With Mallet's contract ending after 2014, though, getting a new guy in the pipeline was important, and so the pick does make a lot of sense. 


     


     


     

     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from SLGDEV. Show SLGDEV's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    I just can't see it.  Yes, the statistics are with you but that is just what they are -- statistics.  Statistics also say that a man's life expectancy is 79, but I can firmly attest that there are a vast number of very healthy and active men well into their eighties.  


    Brady is still at the top of his game and he keeps his body in first rate condition.  I just can't see him becoming a house-daddy to Giselle while football is in his blood and he still has the ability to be one of the top 3-5 currently active QBs.  That latter is what brought Peyton back with an extremely dangerous-to-keep-playing neck injury.


    So, barring a devastating injury, I see him playing to age 42 or 43.  That is five or six years more and, who knows, maybe longer.  The only way I see this changing is if Garoppolo becomes the Brady to Brady that Brady was to Bledsoe and BB can pull off a blockbuster trade for what is left of Brady -- and that can't happen for at least two or three years, if ever.


    Frankly, I want to see Brady keep playing as a Patriot for as long as possible. When it is time I want to see him (of his own choosing) retire as a Patriot.  We (the fans) owe him that.  It has been, and continues to be, a magnificent run.


    SLGDEV/sheldong/sheldonlg

     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from dfitzp. Show dfitzp's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    I think Brady has a good chance to defy the odds. Brady was never a mobile QB so it won't really affect his game if he loses a step. Brett Favre had to become a pure pocket passer and that affected his game dramatically. At 36 or 37 Brady isstill capable of an MVP type season. I don't know of any mobile QB that is still on top in their late 30's


     

     
  10. You have chosen to ignore posts from 7colas. Show 7colas's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to SLGDEV's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    I just can't see it.  Yes, the statistics are with you but that is just what they are -- statistics.  Statistics also say that a man's life expectancy is 79, but I can firmly attest that there are a vast number of very healthy and active men well into their eighties.  


     


    Brady is still at the top of his game and he keeps his body in first rate condition.  I just can't see him becoming a house-daddy to Giselle while football is in his blood and he still has the ability to be one of the top 3-5 currently active QBs.  That latter is what brought Peyton back with an extremely dangerous-to-keep-playing neck injury.


     


    So, barring a devastating injury, I see him playing to age 42 or 43.  That is five or six years more and, who knows, maybe longer.  The only way I see this changing is if Garoppolo becomes the Brady to Brady that Brady was to Bledsoe and BB can pull off a blockbuster trade for what is left of Brady -- and that can't happen for at least two or three years, if ever.


     


    Frankly, I want to see Brady keep playing as a Patriot for as long as possible. When it is time I want to see him (of his own choosing) retire as a Patriot.  We (the fans) owe him that.  It has been, and continues to be, a magnificent run.


     


    SLGDEV/sheldong/sheldonlg


    [/QUOTE]

    I feel the same way. Brady's drive and love of football will make it so.

     
  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Muzwell. Show Muzwell's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    [/QUOTE]




    Muz, is it not fair to say that the Pats have fielded offers for Mallett? I think the rumors are real and it's likely the teams have been low balling the Pats and BB has been telling them to go pound sand yes?


     


    Now with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold the Pats could still dangle Mallett. Or watch Jimmy Garoppolo in pre-season and be comfortable in offering Mallett up then for a 2015 pick?


    BB will let mallett walk as a FA before he lets another team beat him out of fair market value I would think?


    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, they've probably gotten offers. To HOU for a 2015 third rounder and one of their current QBs (Keenum or Yates) makes sense for everyone. I doubt they want to have only Garop as a backup, and HOU doesn't need both of those guys. On the other hand, they'll possibly get a comp pick if they keep him around, so I don't see them just giving him away.

     
  12. You have chosen to ignore posts from prolate0spheroid. Show prolate0spheroid's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    Belichick is thinking of all contingencies.  Brady could play until he's 45, but more likely he's got two to four years left (including the coming season). But in football there's always the possibility of a career ending injury at any time and you have to consider that too. You have to have a plan for Mallet leaving and Brady being unable to play.  Garappolo is that plan.  

     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from DougIrwin. Show DougIrwin's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    If Brady looks indifferent during the AFC Title game again, I will want that day to come sooner rather than later. I cannot take another AFC Title game with him crapping himself yet again. I cannot sit there and tolerate that as a fan.


     

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to TrueChamp's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Yeah I don't think many of us will argue with you. 


     


    My question is...what did day 2 of the draft do to improve our chances of getting over the hump we have been so close to overcoming the last 3 years and winning a super bowl while Tom Brady is STILL the QB??,

    [/QUOTE]


    BINGO! 


    Revis is a 1 year rental, go all in this year to get the Lombardi trophy while the opportunity is here knocking on the freaking door.



     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to DougIrwin's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    If Brady looks indifferent during the AFC Title game again, I will want that day to come sooner rather than later. I cannot take another AFC Title game with him crapping himself yet again. I cannot sit there and tolerate that as a fan.


     


     


    [/QUOTE]


    Hahahaha, you are a loser.  Why don't you just leave the fanbase, nobody will miss you.

     
  16. You have chosen to ignore posts from pezz4pats. Show pezz4pats's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to DougIrwin's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    If Brady looks indifferent during the AFC Title game again, I will want that day to come sooner rather than later. I cannot take another AFC Title game with him crapping himself yet again. I cannot sit there and tolerate that as a fan.


     


     


    The look I remember is bb starring into space with a befuddled and helpless gaze as he realizes his defense couldn't stop the cheerleaders from running all over their sorry azzes.


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]

     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from crazy-world-of-troybrown. Show crazy-world-of-troybrown's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    No QB has won a SB past the age of 38.

     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to Muzwell's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    [/QUOTE]


     




    Muz, is it not fair to say that the Pats have fielded offers for Mallett? I think the rumors are real and it's likely the teams have been low balling the Pats and BB has been telling them to go pound sand yes?


     


     


     


    Now with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold the Pats could still dangle Mallett. Or watch Jimmy Garoppolo in pre-season and be comfortable in offering Mallett up then for a 2015 pick?


     


    BB will let mallett walk as a FA before he lets another team beat him out of fair market value I would think?


     


    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, they've probably gotten offers. To HOU for a 2015 third rounder and one of their current QBs (Keenum or Yates) makes sense for everyone. I doubt they want to have only Garop as a backup, and HOU doesn't need both of those guys. On the other hand, they'll possibly get a comp pick if they keep him around, so I don't see them just giving him away.


    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


    The question is what is that comp? If people think it will be a 3rd they are in for disappointment. 5th at the highest more likely a 6th or 7th but then again if they sign Keller most likely they get nothing

     
  19. This post has been removed.

     
  20. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to Muzwell's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    [/QUOTE]


     




    Muz, is it not fair to say that the Pats have fielded offers for Mallett? I think the rumors are real and it's likely the teams have been low balling the Pats and BB has been telling them to go pound sand yes?


     


     


     


    Now with Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold the Pats could still dangle Mallett. Or watch Jimmy Garoppolo in pre-season and be comfortable in offering Mallett up then for a 2015 pick?


     


    BB will let mallett walk as a FA before he lets another team beat him out of fair market value I would think?


     


    [/QUOTE]

    Yes, they've probably gotten offers. To HOU for a 2015 third rounder and one of their current QBs (Keenum or Yates) makes sense for everyone. I doubt they want to have only Garop as a backup, and HOU doesn't need both of those guys. On the other hand, they'll possibly get a comp pick if they keep him around, so I don't see them just giving him away.


    [/QUOTE]


    Thank you Muz

     
  21. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to TFB12's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to TrueChamp's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


    Yeah I don't think many of us will argue with you. 


     


     


     


    My question is...what did day 2 of the draft do to improve our chances of getting over the hump we have been so close to overcoming the last 3 years and winning a super bowl while Tom Brady is STILL the QB??,

    [/QUOTE]


     


    BINGO! 


     


    Revis is a 1 year rental, go all in this year to get the Lombardi trophy while the opportunity is here knocking on the freaking door.




    [/QUOTE]


    [object HTMLDivElement]


    I'm not really sure what all in means, but would I have liked to see us draft for immediate need like a TE, a depth Lber,a depth guard, or a depth RB? Um, yes! 


    Then again, I don't really agree with the sentiment on this board that we need much more then we currently have. This team is loaded and has really only needed a bit of luck in the health department to get over the hump imo....which unfortunately we have not had at all.

     
  22. You have chosen to ignore posts from MileHighMike. Show MileHighMike's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    Folks, the day TB leaves is very close, I know acceptance is hard and denial is plausible but it's real.


     


    Being a Chemist I run numbers all day. 95% certainty is what I live by. Love to gamble now and then and I don't go against the numbers there either.


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is to 95% certainty as TB is to age 40...WTH does that mean...well...it's about the numbers...lets talk about it.


     


    How many 40 year old QBs are starting in the NFL now? None. Manning is the oldest at 37 and TB is right behind him at 36.


     


    It's been close to 10 years since a 40 year old started in the NFL (8-10) and you know what they looked every day of it.


     


    It just doesn't happen, nor will it.


     


    Talk is talk, will is will...but numbers and history will always speak the truth.


     


    TB will not violate the laws of probability to age 40....he may think he will..but he won't.


     


    And more importantly...do any of you actually believe that deep down he really wants to?


     


    I don't, and never have.


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is here because of the 95% certainty rule.


     


    He is your starter Sept of 2016.


     


    And don't be shocked if it's Sept of 2015.


     


    And because of the 95% probability rule Jimmy Garoppolo had to be drafted this year, not next.


     


    Take in all of TB while you can...because not even TB will break the rule of 95% probability and play to age 40.


    [/QUOTE]

    You may be right, but the patsies will be paying him, regardless.

     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from NoMorePensionLooting. Show NoMorePensionLooting's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to MileHighMike's comment:


     


    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


     


     


    Folks, the day TB leaves is very close, I know acceptance is hard and denial is plausible but it's real.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Being a Chemist I run numbers all day. 95% certainty is what I live by. Love to gamble now and then and I don't go against the numbers there either.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is to 95% certainty as TB is to age 40...WTH does that mean...well...it's about the numbers...lets talk about it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    How many 40 year old QBs are starting in the NFL now? None. Manning is the oldest at 37 and TB is right behind him at 36.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    It's been close to 10 years since a 40 year old started in the NFL (8-10) and you know what they looked every day of it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    It just doesn't happen, nor will it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Talk is talk, will is will...but numbers and history will always speak the truth.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    TB will not violate the laws of probability to age 40....he may think he will..but he won't.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And more importantly...do any of you actually believe that deep down he really wants to?


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    I don't, and never have.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is here because of the 95% certainty rule.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    He is your starter Sept of 2016.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And don't be shocked if it's Sept of 2015.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And because of the 95% probability rule Jimmy Garoppolo had to be drafted this year, not next.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Take in all of TB while you can...because not even TB will break the rule of 95% probability and play to age 40.


     


     


     




    You may be right, but the patsies will be paying him, regardless.


     


    [/QUOTE]


    Probably...but you know the best part...the Jets will still be looking for a QB and you will still be an idiot!....life is great isn't it!!

     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from MileHighMike. Show MileHighMike's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


    In response to MileHighMike's comment:


    [QUOTE]


     


     


     


     


    In response to NoMorePensionLooting's comment:
    [QUOTE]


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Folks, the day TB leaves is very close, I know acceptance is hard and denial is plausible but it's real.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Being a Chemist I run numbers all day. 95% certainty is what I live by. Love to gamble now and then and I don't go against the numbers there either.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is to 95% certainty as TB is to age 40...WTH does that mean...well...it's about the numbers...lets talk about it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    How many 40 year old QBs are starting in the NFL now? None. Manning is the oldest at 37 and TB is right behind him at 36.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    It's been close to 10 years since a 40 year old started in the NFL (8-10) and you know what they looked every day of it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    It just doesn't happen, nor will it.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Talk is talk, will is will...but numbers and history will always speak the truth.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    TB will not violate the laws of probability to age 40....he may think he will..but he won't.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And more importantly...do any of you actually believe that deep down he really wants to?


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    I don't, and never have.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Jimmy Garoppolo is here because of the 95% certainty rule.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    He is your starter Sept of 2016.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And don't be shocked if it's Sept of 2015.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    And because of the 95% probability rule Jimmy Garoppolo had to be drafted this year, not next.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    Take in all of TB while you can...because not even TB will break the rule of 95% probability and play to age 40.


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


     


    [/QUOTE]

    You may be right, but the patsies will be paying him, regardless.


     


     


     


     


    [/QUOTE]


    Probably...but you know the best part...the Jets will still be looking for a QB and you will still be an idiot!....life is great isn't it!!


    [/QUOTE]

    Are you suggesting that the one that hung 30 on the patsies, the one that is better than any QB in this draft, won't be on the roster?

     
  25. You have chosen to ignore posts from OlderbutWiser. Show OlderbutWiser's posts

    Re: Tom Brady is NOT playing until age 40

    It seemed to me that TB was playing with a hurt throwing shoulder the last few years. His long ball has diminished and his short-intermediate throws are not what they used to be, they are often short or high. This trending progresses as the season plays out. I haven't seen much of Mallet, other than some snaps in preseason. I don't make many conjectures out of this draft but the possibilities are: (1) Brady is hurt and not as effective, (2) Brady is old and there is concern about his durability and sustainability, (3) Mallett is not worth paying the cost after the 2014 season, either because the payout will be too much or he just isn't that good to be the starter (and O'Brien would know about that, right?). 


     


    Farfetched, but I also thought that perhaps this will be TB's last season and give the Pats the opportunity to sign Revis long term next year. Ah, there is nothing worse than a run-away imagination. The truth is probably more boring...drafting a new QB is insurance when Mallett walks.

     
Sections
Shortcuts

Share