True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

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    True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    Y'all can give me a hard time, but I thought the title deserved equal time. 

    Here's the best video I've seen of the poor throw.  Its very good quality. 

    http://vimeo.com/36260742

    Some thoughts:  Brady wasn't pressured at all.  He was in shot gun and the line held the defense very well. 

    It appears that Brady held the ball long enough to know that Welker was looking to the inside.  This isn't a timing route so the idea that receiver and QB must be on the same page with their reads doesn't apply in my opinion. 

    Welker should have caught the ball.  Brady, should have thrown a better ball.  If you watch the play, watch the safety (who imo is Brady's only real concern).  Before the snap the safety is moving from Welker's side toward the center of the field.  Upon the snap, his first move is to the center of the field, away from Welker.  Then, he moves out of the screen.  He immediately put himself out of position on the play, which I believe Brady saw. 

    By 5 yards into his route, Welker is looking to his inside.  With the safety not being a concern (not with Tom Brady's arm), and with the play not being a timing play, and with Brady not being pressured, Brady did not need to get rid of the ball so quickly.  If he's going to hold the ball as long as he did on the safety, what changed here? 

    Maybe Brady was afraid of the safety so he put the ball in the location where only Welker could get it, but in doing so, he raised the degree of difficulty for the catch significantly.  not only was it high, it was long.  Intentionally thrown back shoulder throws are slightly short of the receivers momentum because receivers have to slow down to make the body adjustment for the ball. 

    Welker deserves kudos for the effort to get in position to make the catch, something only a handful of receivers in the NFL would and could do (imo).  By being that skilled, he also becomes a goat because he was able to put his hands on a ball that the vast majority of other receivers wouldn't and couldn't. 

    Many on this board have diminished Welker's accomplishments in the face of this drop and his contract negotiations.  They believe he's been good but primarily a product of the system.  On the other hand, they have praised Tom Brady as the best of all time (top 3 minimum).  If these things are even partially true, then its brady's responsibility especially with no pressure, in shotgun, a four man rush, and a developing (not timing) route to put the ball in the best position for the receiver to catch it.  Especially for a receiver whose success has been due (as many have said) to the system and not his effort and skill. 
     
  2. You have chosen to ignore posts from PatsEng. Show PatsEng's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    It's a sad day when a Colts fan nails it while others have their ruby glasses on
     
  3. You have chosen to ignore posts from BostonSportsFan111. Show BostonSportsFan111's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    See, the real problem with the whole thing is that Wes came out and said 'I shoulda had it'. Normally Tom would have then come back with 'I tried to put the ball in a good place, away from the defenders. It threw it a little high and outside, and Wes made a great play just to get to the ball. We just missed hitting a big play there'. End of discussion. But by the time Tom got out of the shower, Gizzy had already gone on her 'its not my husbands fault...' hissy fit, which Tom was apprised of before he met the media. In trying to keep the peace at home for the next 6 months, he couldn't come out and say 'Gizzy was wrong'...
     
  4. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    bsf - its possible.  So now we know who wears the pants in the family. 

    If you are correct, Tom still could have said what you suggested, and when confronted with Gisele's comments by a reporter, he could have responded with "what do you expect her to say - she's my wife and has my back and I love her for it". 

    As for what wes said, he's right.  I believe that when an NFL receiver puts two hands on the ball, there is an expectation that he should catch it regardless of the degree of difficulty. 
     
  5. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    I wonder if WW and Brady would have had a better chance at completing a 5 to 10 yard route as opposed to throwing the ball 28 yards in the air on 2nd down with a 2pt lead and only 4 minutes left???
     
  6. You have chosen to ignore posts from ChasaB. Show ChasaB's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    the ball hit him on the hands, thats good enough.

    UD6 please go to teh broncos forum, or the colts forum, or which ever horse you are a fan of.
     
  7. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]I wonder if WW and Brady would have had a better chance at completing a 5 to 10 yard route as opposed to throwing the ball 28 yards in the air on 2nd down with a 2pt lead and only 4 minutes left???
    Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]
    I thought that too.  Whoever was the wideout next to welker was going to get his 4-5 yds.  That said, it was 2nd and 11. 
     
  8. You have chosen to ignore posts from TrueChamp. Show TrueChamp's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In response to "Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : I thought that too.  Whoever was the wideout next to welker was going to get his 4-5 yds.  That said, it was 2nd and 11.  Posted by UD6[/QUOTE] 3rd and 5 is easier to convert then 3rd and 11. Almost as important is that the clock continues to run down if we complete a 5 yard high % passing play. If we take off another 80 seconds of game clock on 2nd and 3rd down then the Giants are under pressure to get down field quicker.
     
  9. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]the ball hit him on the hands, thats good enough. UD6 please go to teh broncos forum, or the colts forum, or which ever horse you are a fan of.
    Posted by ChasaB[/QUOTE]
    So you are completely absolving Brady of any responsibility for the failure of the play?
     
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  11. You have chosen to ignore posts from Ayisyen. Show Ayisyen's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]In response to "Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)": 3rd and 5 is easier to convert then 3rd and 11. Almost as important is that the clock continues to run down if we complete a 5 yard high % passing play. If we take off another 80 seconds of game clock on 2nd and 3rd down then the Giants are under pressure to get down field quicker.
    Posted by TrueChamp[/QUOTE]

    The pats haven't played that kind of football for a while now.  Whatever the situation, it's empty backfield, shotgun.
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE] EVEN WORSE IF YOU WATCH Branch? is wide open standing two yards from the first down marker no one around him,easy catch easy first down  easiest play of the game.
    Posted by sod11[/QUOTE]

    Branch put on a nice move and it would have been an easy Brady to Branch sideline pass that we have seen many times, but he looks a lot more open then he really was because the Cb covering him leaves to chase down WW as the ball was already in the air. I think that should have been the 1st option with hernandez being option 2 as a LB had to pick him up and we know who wins that battle. A 28 yard pass to our 5ft8 receiver probably should have been the 3rd or 4rth option.....or then again, he shouldn't have been running that route at all.
     
  13. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    "stunning to see him miss that one" - Collinsworth

    But let's listen to the Colts' troll instead.

     
  14. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]"stunning to see him miss that one" - Collinsworth But let's listen to the Colts' troll instead.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]

    I don't think anyone is absolving welker of his failed responsibility on the play.  Are you absolving Brady of his?

    I'll remind you that you think Brady is one of the best ever, while not giving nearly that kind of credit to Welker.  Given those parameters and knowing that Brady had no pressure on him and in many other situations has held the ball longer to better assess the field, shouldn't Brady have known the limitations of Welker and chosen differently to better compensate for those limitations?
     
  15. You have chosen to ignore posts from TFB12. Show TFB12's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]"stunning to see him miss that one" - Collinsworth But let's listen to the Colts' troll instead.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]
    I doubt Collinsworth could have ever caught that pass, even in his prime.  He knows WW can make some crazy catches and while not many receivers would have caught that one, he thinks WW could have.  Thats fair, still doesn't take away from the fact that it was a poorly thrown ball.  Hit WW in stride and they would have been inside the 15.
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : I doubt Collinsworth could have ever caught that pass, even in his prime.  He knows WW can make some crazy catches and while not many receivers would have caught that one, he thinks WW could have.  Thats fair, still doesn't take away from the fact that it was a poorly thrown ball.  Hit WW in stride and they would have been inside the 15.
    Posted by TFB12[/QUOTE]


    I think Collinsworth thinks most good NFL receivers catch balls that hit them square in both hands.
     
  17. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    You keep,saying Welker had to accomplish great feats of acrobatics to make the catch. I have suggested to you before that you find a friend and try turning to catch a ball. It's incredibly easy, it's done all all levels of football and seen in nearly every NFL game. Heck, it's harder to catch a ball over your shoulder because you can't see both your hand and the ball at the same time (why little league coaches tell kids to get in front of the ball). Welker just messed up. I'm just simply amazed that there are people that think that would be a stunning catch. That would not make the top ten plays, it was routine- had he caught it. It's like I'm standing in a group of people who've seen a bicycle for the first time and are amazed it doesn't fall over on its side. It's only amazing if you've never tried it- try it. I'm not kidding- actually try a turning catch- you'll be simply shocked at the minimal level of coordination required.
     
  18. You have chosen to ignore posts from BabeParilli. Show BabeParilli's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : I don't think anyone is absolving welker of his failed responsibility on the play.  Are you absolving Brady of his? I'll remind you that you think Brady is one of the best ever, while not giving nearly that kind of credit to Welker.  Given those parameters and knowing that Brady had no pressure on him and in many other situations has held the ball longer to better assess the field, shouldn't Brady have known the limitations of Welker and chosen differently to better compensate for those limitations?
    Posted by UD6[/QUOTE]

    I think whether Brady threw a great ball to Welker or Welker misjudged it is debatable.

    I think that Welker should have caught a ball hitting him squarely on both hands isn't.

    I would put it about 80/20 on Welker.
     
  19. You have chosen to ignore posts from glenr. Show glenr's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    Another whining piece of BS by Babe (it's never Brady's fault ) the Baby
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]You keep,saying Welker had to accomplish great feats of acrobatics to make the catch. I have suggested to you before that you find a friend and try turning to catch a ball. It's incredibly easy, it's done all all levels of football and seen in nearly every NFL game. Heck, it's harder to catch a ball over your shoulder because you can't see both your hand and the ball at the same time (why little league coaches tell kids to get in front of the ball). Welker just messed up. I'm just simply amazed that there are people that think that would be a stunning catch. That would not make the top ten plays, it was routine- had he caught it. It's like I'm standing in a group of people who've seen a bicycle for the first time and are amazed it doesn't fall over on its side. It's only amazing if you've never tried it- try it. I'm not kidding- actually try a turning catch- you'll be simply shocked at the minimal level of coordination required.
    Posted by shenanigan[/QUOTE]
    Shen, you did say this before (did you cut and paste), but I disagree with you in the case of the brady throw.  As I noted earlier.  Most back shoulder throws are short of the receiver's momentum allowing him to slow his progression in order to get to the ball.  Additionally, most back shoulder throws are planned.  IMO, neither of those things happened on this play.  Welker was at full speed and turned to the inside shoulder and looking for the ball there.  Most back shoulder throws are like comeback routes.  The receiver "shows" a fly route (to get the defender to turn his hips and run) only to then dig and find the ball on his back shoulder.  In Welker's case he was continuing his downfield route when he had to react to the throw not just over his outside shoulder but also above and beyond his easy reach.  It's not just the backside turn (which are routes I see pats receivers, particularly Welker run all of the time), it's Welker's requirement in his turn to also leap and fully extend to get his hands to the ball.  Much easier said than done, and not at all routine. 

    Yes, it would have been harder for Welker to have turned upfield (losing sight of the ball) and turning back the other way to find the ball and appropriately adjust the route to get to it.  Welker did (imo) the only thing he could have done to make a play on the ball.  I've played alot of football in my life and a lot of baseball where the wind and action on a ball takes to a different direction than where it was hit.  If Brady's ball had a little less on it, I would agree that the catch would have been routine.  Welker, however, was fully extended and in the air and made an incredible effort just to get to the ball. 

    All of that said, if a professional receiver gets both hands on the ball, he should catch it.  Further, Brady had the opportunity to throw a much better ball than he did to an open receiver.
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : I think whether Brady threw a great ball to Welker or Welker misjudged it is debatable. I think that Welker should have caught a ball hitting him squarely on both hands isn't. I would put it about 80/20 on Welker.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]

    I don't think Welker misjudged the ball at all. Given the physical gyrations required to get in position to make the catch, I think he did everything he could have to make the catch possible. 

    I think given the protection, the play (read and react, not timing), Brady (who I consider to be an incredibly accurate passer - more accurate than Manning) blew the throw. 

    I won't absolve Welker of failing at his responsibility, he got his hands on the ball, he should catch the ball, but I also won't absolve Brady of his in this situation especially if Brady is one of the best of all time and Welker's success is simply the product of Brady's greatness.  Can't have it both ways if you believe this.
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]Another whining piece of BS by Babe (it's never Brady's fault ) the Baby
    Posted by glenr[/QUOTE]


    So Rusty, are you saying Welker didn't drop a catchable ball?
     
  23. You have chosen to ignore posts from shenanigan. Show shenanigan's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In response to "Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)": [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : Shen, you did say this before (did you cut and paste), but I disagree with you in the case of the brady throw.  As I noted earlier.  Most back shoulder throws are short of the receiver's momentum allowing him to slow his progression in order to get to the ball.  Additionally, most back shoulder throws are planned.  IMO, neither of those things happened on this play.  Welker was at full speed and turned to the inside shoulder and looking for the ball there.  Most back shoulder throws are like comeback routes.  The receiver "shows" a fly route (to get the defender to turn his hips and run) only to then dig and find the ball on his back shoulder.  In Welker's case he was continuing his downfield route when he had to react to the throw not just over his outside shoulder but also above and beyond his easy reach.  It's not just the backside turn (which are routes I see pats receivers, particularly Welker run all of the time), it's Welker's requirement in his turn to also leap and fully extend to get his hands to the ball.  Much easier said than done, and not at all routine.  Yes, it would have been harder for Welker to have turned upfield (losing sight of the ball) and turning back the other way to find the ball and appropriately adjust the route to get to it.  Welker did (imo) the only thing he could have done to make a play on the ball.  I've played alot of football in my life and a lot of baseball where the wind and action on a ball takes to a different direction than where it was hit.  If Brady's ball had a little less on it, I would agree that the catch would have been routine.  Welker, however, was fully extended and in the air and made an incredible effort just to get to the ball.  All of that said, if a professional receiver gets both hands on the ball, he should catch it.  Further, Brady had the opportunity to throw a much better ball than he did to an open receiver. Posted by UD6[/QUOTE] Watch the video and tell me honestly. Is there a back shoulder or is Welker running a path directly in line with the ball?
     
  24. You have chosen to ignore posts from UD6. Show UD6's posts

    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    I've watched the video a number of times.  Welker is actually faded on the route while looking to the inside.  Yes there is a back shoulder.  it is Welker's shoulder closest to the sideline.  Had Welker looked to the outside as opposed to the inside on his route, he likely would have made the catch in stride. 

    Its likely that Welker turned inside because the safety's first reaction upon the snap is toward the middle of the field. 

    I give Welker alot of credit for the effort.  He still should have caught the ball, and Brady should have thrown a better ball.
     
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    Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety)

    In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety):
    [QUOTE]In Response to Re: True analysis of Brady's poor throw (and I ain't talkin the safety) : I think whether Brady threw a great ball to Welker or Welker misjudged it is debatable. I think that Welker should have caught a ball hitting him squarely on both hands isn't. I would put it about 80/20 on Welker.
    Posted by BabeParilli[/QUOTE]

    How would Welker have misjudged it?  He ran the route. Given that it doesn't appear to be a timing route where receiver and QB know exactly where the ball is going, it becomes Brady's responsibility to throw it to the receiver based on the route the receiver ran. 

    If misjudgement is the question, that actually goes on Brady, imo.
     
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