Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    At #17, Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State . . . he is the best Offensive Line guy that will be there for the Pats . . . they need to protect Brady as he is not getting any younger.  If Mankins signs then they can use a 4th or 5th round pick to get an offensive lineman for the future . . . if not then maybe they'll have to go with the top guard.  With their first rounder and Carolina's first pick in the 2nd round they can go defense!
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    In Response to Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11):
         Andrew Luck's decision to stay in college wrecked every pre-Luck decision NFL mock draft...and demonstrated how silly it is to try to predict what players will be selected, and where. The combines haven't taken place, and the college all-star games haven't been played. We don't even know for sure the exact rankings of the teams yet, what players will be coming out, who will coaching where, what system the new coaches will employ, and whether a rookie salary cap will be in place, by April.       So, why am I doing a mock draft now? I'm not. I've chosen instead to to review five updated mocks that seem to have some basis in reason, accept the consensus pick for each spot, and list my thoughts below as to what I think of each projected selection. Hopefully, this exercise will give us all more familiarity with the players who will likely be available, and, more importantly, give us an idea who will be available when the Patriots select. Here are the consensus picks: 1.) Carolina Panthers: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia:  No question that Green is the top WR available, and an outstanding prospect. But, why use the top overall pick on a WR? Throughout the season, I have cited the "Shiny Hood Ornament" theory, put forth by the Cold, Hard Football Facts. In a nutshell, the theory is that WRs are not essential elements to a championship team. They are merely "shiny hood ornaments" of a good team (the car): http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_3432_Moss_shocker_%26_CHFF_shiny_hood_ornament_theory.html      We Pats' fans have first hand knowledge of the veracity of this theory, as the Pats' have won three SBs (and had one other stolen away by the refs, and gift-wrapped to Peyton Manning, in 2006) with pedestrian receiving corps. We've seen Randy Moss leave, and the team actually improve. We've the Miami Dolphins trade two high picks and expend a boat-load of cash to land Brandon Marshall, with no discernable results. We've seen the NY Jets add Santonio Holmes, without much improvement.      If I were making this selection, my choice would be one of two defensive lineman...either DE  Da'Quan Bowers fron Clemson, or Auburn DT Nick Fairley . 2.) Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: The consensus analysis is that, with Champ Bailey likely leaving through free agency, that Denver will replace him with the top CB prospect available, in the 6'1" Peterson. Though the Broncos could do worse. Generally speaking, I believe in building a team up with a QB, OL, DL, CBs, Safeties, and LBs. It's been proven over and over again that good RBs and WRs can be found in the later rounds.      Since it is uncertain whether the Broncos will remain a 3-4 team, or switch back to a 4-3, my selection here would be Auburn DT  Nick Fairley .  3.) Buffalo Bills: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn: There is no consensus here. the choices made in the five mocks were Patrick Peterson (twice), Da"Quan Bowers, Fairley, and Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert.      Since the consensus had Peterson already going to Denver at #2, I'll go with Nick Fairley here...who would likely be the selection I would make. After watching the Patriots slice and dice the Bills on the ground in week 16, there's no question that the Bills need to fortify their DL.       But, QB Gabbert is an intriguing choice. With Luck out of the draft, Gabbert has emerged as the top rated QB prospect available. But, the Missouri junior is raw, and a product of his schools' spread passing system, which generally requires that a QB make only one read: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/1/4/1913801/blaine-gabbert-nfl-draft-scouting-report . Passing on a guy like Fairley to roll dice on Gabbert seems to be too great a risk; 4.) Cincinnati Bengals: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson: The consensus had Fairley failing here. But, with Fairley having been slotted to the Bills, Bowers seems to be the next man up. The Bengals do need a pass-rusher, and Bowers is the best pass-rushing prospect available: http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/1/5/1917170/2011-nfl-draft-daquan-bowers-is-in .      Were this my choice, I'd give some thought to Blaine Gabbert , as Carson Palmer is aging, and in the final year of his contract. Should the Bengals take Gabbert now, and groom him to replace Palmer in 2012?  5.) Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri:  Though this is the consensus pick for the Cards, I don't see Gabbert as a good fit here. Instead, I can envision the Cards trading for a veteran QB (Donavan McNabb?), and continuing to build their defense. Still, the trend in the NFL, and in life, is to keep up with the Jones. The Rams resurrected themselves with Sam Bradford. So, why not roll dice with Gabbert?  6.) Cleveland Browns: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska:  Three of the five mocks had Amukamara going here, while two went with Alabama DE, Marcell Dareus. The thought process is that Amukamara teamed up with last years' #1 pick, Joe Haden, would be awesome for years to come. But, after watching the ease in which the Steelers ran the ball on the Browns in the seasonal finale, Dareus may be the better choice. At this time, Amukamara seems to be the better prospect. 7.) San Francisco 49ers: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas: The 49ers have to get a QB. Isn't that why they just hired Jim Harbaugh, to groom the next great West Coast offense QB? Harbaugh would probably rather have Gabbert, but we have him gone at #5. Don't be surprise if SF pulls off a trade to move up to grab Gabbert, who seems to be a better west-coast type prospect; 8.) Tennessee Titans: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn: Like the 49ers above, the Titans must come away from this draft with a QB. Vince Young will likely be released, and end up either a Raider, Viking, or Redskin. Kerry Collins can't go on forever. Tennessee might trade up to land either Gabbert or Mallett; 9.) Dallas Cowboys: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Florida: Two of the five have the Cowboys taking Jenkins. While it's true that the Cowboys' secondary is horrible, this appears to be a major reach.      My choice would likely be Wisconsin DE J.J. Watt, or Colorado OT Nate Solde;   10.) Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama: Three of the five have the 'Skins selecting QB Cam Newton here. The other two listed Nick Fairley, whose long gone, and Jones. I can't see the Redskins coming out of this draft without a QB. Look for Shanahan to pull off a major trade to move up...or to acquire Vince Young.      I see Jones as a terrible selection here, via my staunch belief in the Shiny Hood Ornament theory, discussed in detail, above. If all the best QBs were taken, my choice would likely be either J.J. Watt or Marcell Dareus . 11.) Houston Texans: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina: Two of the five slotted Quinn here. Though he didn't play this season, his pass rushing potential is considered by some to be off the charts. The Texans must get a pass rush on Peyton Manning if they ever hope to beat out the Colts. Considering that the Texans are going to switch to a 3-4 defense next season, this selection seems to make sense; 12.) Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker, QB, Washington: Three of five have Locker going here. Rumor out of Minnesota is that the Vikings will make a major push to land Josh McDaniels as their OC: http://www.startribune.com/sports/vikings/113116449.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUo8cyaiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUr      If McDaniels is brought aboard, look for the Vikings to make a trade with Denver, for QB Kyle Orton. If that happens, I rather doubt they'll select Locker at #12.       If I were selecting, I'd take into consideration that DE Ray Edwards likely will be leaving through free agency, and select DE J.J. Watt,  or Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward, coming off his great performance in the Sugar Bowl. 13.) Detroit Lions: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado:  Two of the five have the Lions going CB here. But, with the top three corners already gone, the Lions will likely turn to their OL woes. They can't allow Matthew Stafford to get physically destroyed for a second straight year. 14.) St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmom, WR, Oklahoma State: Three of the five mocks list Blackmon here, while the other two name Julio Jones. Though I don't believe in taking WRs this high, after watching the Rams lose to Seattle in the NFC touney play-in game, I can see why the call here is for a WR.       My choice would be either  Watt  or California's  Cameron Jordan . 15.) Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: With Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown both likely leaving through free agency, I can understand why three of the five mocks project Ingram here.       But, it's a bad choice! 'Fins should add to their defense, with any of the remaining defensive lineman available ...Watt or Dareus would make sense here; 16.) Jacksonville Jaguars: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami: Their secondary is a mess. Two of the five mocks have the Jags going CB...and two have them going DE. Because CB isn't as deep as DE, lets award the Jags Harris here.      My pick would be Watt ; 17.) New England Patriots: Ryan Kerrigan, DE/OLB, Purdue: Four of the five mocks have the Pats going DE, and two of those named Kerrigan as the choice. Here's a scouting report on the Purdue stud: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2516      Though Kerrigan would seem to be a great fit to replace Tully Banta-Cain as the prime pass-rushing OLB threat, I believe that the Patriots are better suited drafting a 3-4 DE. If J.J. Watt is still available, he would seem to fit the bill: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2727 , Marcell Dareus : http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/06/marcel-dareus-scouting-report.html ,  Cameron Jordan : http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2010/07/cameron-jordan-scouting-report.html , or Cameron Heyward: http://newerascouting.com/2010/cameron-heyward-scouting-report/ 18.) San Diego Chargers: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M: Miller is an outstanding pass-rusher coming off the OLB spot. Four of the five mocks have the Chargers going with a pass-rushing DE/OLB type. Other possibilities include Ryan Kerrigan, and Akeem Ayers of UCLA.       My pick would be  Ryan Kerrigan ; 19.) New York Giants: Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA: Two of the five have the Giants taking Anthony Castanzo, while the remaining three look for them to go OLB/DE. While I can see why the G-men would go OL, Castanzo is projected as a RT. I would consider Mississippi State LT prospect, Derrick Sherrod. But, OLB  Ayers would be intriguing in the Giants' defensive scheme; 20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa: Two of the five have Clayborn going in this spot. J.J. Watt will likely be gone somewhere by now, as will Dareus. Once thought to be a top 10 pick, Clayborn's play has fallen off this season; 21.) Seattle Seahawks: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri: Most of the mocks have Seattle going DE here, awarded after losing today to the Saints. But nay!!! On any given Saturday...!!! What an outstanding with for the 'Hawks, and what an unbelievable run by Marshawn Lynch!! Smith is a top pass-rushing prospect. He is raw, but extremely talented: http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2011/01/07/aldon-smith/      Seahawks can't afford to gamble with developmental prospects like this. They also desperately need a QB. A more seasoned DE, like a Cameron Heyward , would seem to make more sense:  http://newerascouting.com/2010/cameron-heyward-scouting-report/    22.) Kansas City Chiefs: Derrick Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State: Though three of the five mocks have the Chiefs going WR, the top three guys, Green, Jones, and Blackmon, are long gone. So...I expect the Chiefs to bolster their OL, and protect Matt Cassel from the physical abuse he took throughout this season; 23.) Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin: Understandably, the mocks all have Indy going OL...as job one for the Colts is protecting Peyton Manning. But, will Peyton still be a Colt next season?  24.) Philadelphia Eagles: Mike Pouncey, G/C, Florida: Three of the five mocks had Carimi, above, going to the Eagles. Philly needs OL help, for whoever QBs them next season. Don't be surprised to see Michael Vick get traded, if the price is right; 25.) Green Bay Packers: Tyron Smith, OT, USC: Three of the five mocks had GB going OT...the other two CB. Two had Carimi listed as the pick. Since Aaron Rodgers had two too many concussions this season, this makes some sense; 26.) New Orleans Saints: Stepen Paea, DT, Oregon State: Teamed inside with Sedrick Ellis, Paea should give the Saints a formidable defensive corp. Though DE Cameron Jordan will fill a need a DE, he's more of a 3-4 type player. Cameron Heyward could be of interest, as well; 27.) New York Jets: Cameron Heyward, DE/DT, Ohio State : Four of the five mocks have the Jets looking to fill a slot at DE. Heyward was the choice of two of the five. Cameron Jordan might be appetizing to them as well. The Jets desparately need someone who can pressure the opposing QB; 28.) Baltimore Ravens: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas: Two of the five mocks had Williams going here, while the others had the Ravens addressing the DL, and getting help at safety. After the Patriots beat them, even Terrell Suggs will realize that he and his boys need help against Tom Brady; 29.) Chicago Bears: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: Four out of five predicted that the Bears would go WR here...two named Floyd, and Two Named Pittsburgh's Jonathan Baldwin. The fifth of the "mockers" wisely went OL...which is without question where the Bears should be looking most to improve. But, due to a run on offensive lineman, I can see them looking elsewhere; 30.) Pittsburgh Steelers: DeMarcus Love, OT, Arkansas: The Goths must improve their OL. The only way that the Steelers might choose to pass on Love is if J.J. Watt somehow lasted this long...as they also need help at DE; 31.) Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame: Two of the five have Rudolph slotted here. I guess even Tony Gonzalez can't go on forever. As the Falcons will find out when they lose in the SB to the Patriots, they'll need another pass-rusher (Cameron Jordan?); 32.) New England Patriots: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT, Temple: Most of the mockers see the Patriots going 3-4 DE here, particularly after having selected a pass-rushing OLB/DE, Ryan Kerrigan, with pick #17. Of course, with BB, you never know.The Pats could trade down at any time. J.J. Watt, if he's still around, is also a possibility. But, based on what I've read about Wilkerson, he could develop into another Richard Seymour, or be another Ron Brace type. Here's a scouting report on Wilkerson: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2765 ; 33.) New England Patriots: Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia: Just throwing out another name that some of you may not have heard of. Here's a scouting report on him: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=2758 .      Or...the Patriots may trade completely out of the first round, stockpile a several more second and third round selections this season, and bank another #1 draft choice for next season. WHO KNOWS!!! It's just an exciting time to be a Patriots' fan!!       In any event, I hope you enjoyed skimming through this admittedly very lengthy post. Remember, the above mock does not necessarily represent who I would choose in each spot. It's just a consensus from five updated mocks.       I know that a lengthy thread with over 1300 posts has already been started, But, as stated above, the Luck decision has rendered all previous mocks obsolete. So...I felt that it was time for a fresh start.      Any thoughts about the above choices, possible trades, or about players that you feel would be outstanding additions to the Pats??                        
    Posted by TexasPat3

    Thanks TPAT for the analysis.

    I like Kerrigan, he's a stud. But I don't see the Pats passing up on JJ Watt if he is available. Watt is 30 lbs heavier with more speed. I think Kerrigan has some better moves, but Watt has more potential. You can't teach speed and Watt has natural leadership qualities. Look at the Mayo pick a few years ago. BB surprised many with that pick. Mayo was exceptionally smart to go along with very good athletic ability. The same goes with Watt. UW is a very tough school to get into, my sister in law went there, and although exceptions can be made for athletes, JJ Watt is a very smart kid. BB loves that. And although I do think Kerrigan can add some bulk, 30 lbs is a lot.
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    Tex, from my understanding, the draft will be held.  However, there will be no signings until the new CBA is in place. 
    I dont see owners challenging it, that could ruin the NFL if it got like that.
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    Agents know where there bread is buttered.  If they did that, teams could refuse to draft players with that agent, low ball them, make their players sit a year.  Many things could be done to get back at them.  I am not saying it is impossible, but it might be career suicide for the agents that did it. 
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    Coach BB will NEVER let his first 3 picks go by without picking an O-lineman. Protecting Brady is job #1. Always.

    Vollmer's back is always acting up
    Koppen and Light (although still effective players) aren't exactly spring chickens
    Neal is oft injured and planning to retire

    In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 out of the first 3 picks are OL

    PS Oh yeah, Mankins is not a lock to return.
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    Hey Tex, from Bleacher Report: Pats No. 17 = Akeem Ayers

    Akeem Ayers No. 17 NE Patriots:

    The Patriots have been playing well of defense, but they need more dynamic playmakers to be consistently dominant against high-powered offenses.

    With their lack of pure pass rushers, they should pick a rushing outside linebacker with their first pick.

    Ayers is 6'4" tall and has long arms. He has a large array of moves to beat offensive tackles. 

    He is strong and very quick, and has the skill set to play as a middle linebacker as well as rush from the line as a defensive end.

    This makes him perfect for the New England defense, which uses a lot of different looks.

    Ayers' pass rushing abilities place him above Von Miller to become the first linebacker drafted.

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    Re: 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/8/11)

    In Response to Re: 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/8/11):
    In Response to Re: 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/8/11) :      It wouldn't surprise me if the Pats traded down...out of the first round...stock-piled 2nd and 3rd rounders this year, and bagged an extra #1 for 2012.
    Posted by TexasPat3

    But, BB's already collected all these extra chips; what's the point if he doesn't cash them in at some point? This would seem like a good year to do that, with such a deep draft.

    I'd rather not see him take a chance on a second or third rounders at DE and OLB, where we need immediate help. I'd actually like to see BB trade up to take a blue chipper like D'quan Bowers but that just doesn't seem to be his style. Of course, I was also a guy who wanted BB to trade up to get Vernon Ghoulston a couple of years back, proving that the Pats are very fortunate to have BB running their draft and not me.

    But, just for S&G, what would it take to go from #17 to #4, both our first rounders maybe?
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    Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11)

    In Response to Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11):
    In Response to Re: Updated 2011 NFL Mock Draft (1/11/11) : Why Mel hasn't gotten a Patriots draft right ever. The Patriots are going to need 3 O-linemen in the very near future,so in making up your mock drafts you might want to take this information into account,I say 3 because they have two impending FA's in Light and Mankins and Neal is on his last legs oh and just for kickers Koppen is getting long in the tooth.... But hey lets waste a first round pick on another D-lineman or another OLB.
    Posted by sportsbozo1

    Woh calm down. I just wanted to know. But hey i heard o line was weak this draft and most of them will be pushed up higher in the draft due to it.