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posted at 1/31/2012 9:15 PM ESTThis is interesting because Vegas odds are Pats + 3.5 to +2.5 various odds, I have heard.
This means that there is still not that many people putting their money where their mouth is ( pundits predix). If there is this ground swell of Giants believers , wouldnt the points shift down , giving them less to cover to their bets? Giving Vegas the optimum distribution, 50/50.
Does SB betting change at the last minutes like horse races where the big money goes late , knowing the odds can't change then?
I have to think the wise guys know whats going on. I would assume they dont lose money often. Maybe they just go by the numbers;
13-3 is better than 9-7
10 game winstreak better than 5
PS: what is a "hook"
Re: Vegas odds
posted at 1/31/2012 9:21 PM ESTAnd today Bradshaw is going on and on about how they LOVE being the underdog, and how they're all about proving the naysayers wrong and all that garbage. I literally wanted to throw the remote at the tv. Made me physically ILL.. Almost nobody except the oddsmakers are picking the Patriots, and they're only doing it to make money, not because they think the Patriots will win. Sickening.
Re: Vegas odds
posted at 1/31/2012 10:00 PM ESTNew York and New Jersey is a big metro area with lots of people, and the Super Bowl brings out a lot of infrequent bettors. If the hordes want to plunk down $20 million and New Englanders only want to plunk down $10 million, the line has to shift until both sides are plunking down $15 million.
It goes with the territory of being 134-42 in the regular season during the Brady-Belichick era, and 16-5 in the playoffs. Almost everybody has an axe to grind against the Patriots, and everybody wants to see somebody new win. For example, if you ask the Oakland Raiders who their nemesis is, they won't talk about their division rivals. They'll drag out the Foxboro "tuck rule" game 11 seasons ago. Pittsburgh has an axe to grind. Indianapolis has an axe to grind. Baltimore just joined the club. San Diego has bitter visions of Patriots players dancing on top of their logo on their field at a championship game. I'm not sure how Denver fans feel right now after 45-10. Jets fans? Just eat the season. Miami fans? Titans fans must remember the 59-0 game, after which their coach wore a Peyton Manning jersey so that he could root for a winner.
All of this envy influences the pundits (who are really running popularity contests) and they influence the gullible nationally. A team on a 6-5 streak is almost certainly going to beat a team on an 11-0 streak. So, much of the nation goes and bets their G-spots on the G-men.
My numbers say that the Giants really are 2.5 point underdogs. My feelings are that the Patriots are getting stronger with something like 14 guys moving from questionable to probable, while the Giants have some serious holes that are currently out, not practicing. There appears to be not much wrong with Gronkowski, although BB will never, ever let anyone say that Gronk isn't "questionable".
Furthermore, I question the last two Giant wins. One win was against a Packers team where the offensive coordinator's 21 year old son drowned 6 days earlier. The other win in San Francisco featured rain, which almost never happens out there, and SF fumbled 4 times, maybe because they weren't expecting to handle wet balls. So, what if the Giants weren't really a team on a 6-5 streak but a 4-7 streak? That said, it would be a very, very good 4-7 streak as these things go.
Denver was a #4 playoff seed. The Giants were a #4 playoff seed also.
You're right, the oddsmakers are picking the Patriots to make money.
Re: Vegas odds
posted at 1/31/2012 10:08 PM ESTWell said.
Re: Vegas odds
posted at 1/31/2012 10:20 PM ESTI can't believe how many "pundits" and "experts" are pushing the Giants.
I am sick of hearing about the Giants. ESPN radio was blabbing about Eli Manning being better than Brady, Cruz is better than Welker, Kevin Gilbride's offense is so much more complex than any other, the Giants are so incredibly hot, yada yada yada
I am sick of it already!
I can only imagine that the Patriots are getting sick of it too.
I am really looking forward to a decisive victory.