Re: Was Trading Mankins the Wright Move for Pats?
posted at 8/26/2014 3:15 PM EDT
In response to TexasPat's comment:
Here is more information and analysis:
Folks...got some news about Tim Wright. He's a 6'4", 229 lb. H-back/TE. He's a converted WR. Wright was an undrafted free agent in last years' draft, out of (gulp) Rutgers. In his rookie season, Wright played in all 16 games, starting in 8 of those. He had 54 receptions for 597 yards, and 5 TDs, averaging 10.6 yards per catch. He posted 4.65 speed in the 40 at the Combine. In addition to getting Wright, the Pats also get Tampa's 2015 fourth (4th) round pick.
That said, Wright has been in Lovie Smith's doghouse throughout this preseason. There was some speculation that he would be cut. But, then there's this article: http://espn.go.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/5730/tim-wright-back-in-good-graces-with-lovie" rel="nofollow">http://espn.go.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/5730/tim-wright-back-in-good-graces-with-lovie" rel="nofollow">http://espn.go.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/5730/tim-wright-back-in-good-graces-with-lovie" rel="nofollow">http://espn.go.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/5730/tim-wright-back-in-good-graces-with-lovie" rel="nofollow">http://espn.go.com/blog/tampa-bay-buccaneers/post/_/id/5730/tim-wright-back-in-good-graces-with-lovie
I commend BB for his courage in making this deal. At best, the Pats get a 24 year old Aaron Hernandez type H-back TE, who can create great match-up difficulties, like in the good ol' AH/Gronk days. They also get a 2015 4th round pick, which could be a top 12 pick in round 4.
At worst, they lose a leader on their OL, who might be able to squeeze out another pro-bowl caliber season...and the Pats add depth to the TE position. But with this trade, they also lose an overpaid, perhaps, at this stage of his career, even an overrated, OG, who has had some injury problems over the past couple of years. BB likely remembers the biggest play of the Pats' 2013 season. It happened in the AFC title game in Denver when, on a 4th down play, Broncos' DT Terrance Knighton steamrolled over Mankins to sack Tom Brady, and clinch the AFC title for Denver.
Folks...I believe in the theory that it's better to part with a player a year early, than a year too late...and BB always seems to know when to cut ties with his veterans. In short, I like the trade. Lets' hope that Mr. Wright is the right fit at TE, in New England.
That and these articles:
First one shows that Logan graded out in 2013 at a negative for pass blocking last year compared with a positive career rating. Run blocking down too.
The second one points out that Mankins was way overpriced for his production, especially with 2013 being the first of 3 years with a $10 million+ cap hit. Key point here is that Mankins ranked 19th among guards (out of, theoretically 64 starters in all of NFL) and that he had not been in Top 10 since 2010!
BTW, he’s 32 ½ …
Projected Starter Year Position 2013 P-Block 2013 R-Block Career AVG P-Block Career AVG R-Block
Logan Mankins 10 LG -2.70 16.30 2.59 21.00
Logan Mankin’s had a down year in pass blocking but just like what’s been expected of him he had another monster run blocking year. Since 2007 he’s been consistently amongst the run blocking elite for guards.
Ryan Wendell’s 2013 season put up the lowest pass blocking grade amongst all starting centers in the league. His career hasn’t been much better in pass blocking and considering the AFC East has some of the best defensive line players in the league his inability to keep up could very well be one of the biggest contributing factors to Brady’s 2013 decline, as interior pressure has been found as the most difficult to handle. On the other spectrum though, Wendell put up the highest run blocking grade of all centers a year ago in 2012 and followed it up with a below league average season. In Wendell’s short career as a starter, it’s hard to tell which of the two is an outlier, but it’s worth noting that in week 6 of 2013 Wendall suffered a concussion, which could have had something to do with how poorly he played. However, he was only on the injury report for that one week and missed no games.
Dan Connolly has seen himself moved around very often on the Patriots offensive line although he’s always been stuck in the interior positions (LG/C/RG). In 2012 when he had his first full year starting at one position on the offensive line, he graded out just around average. In 2013 he would have the fifth lowest grade of all guards for pass blocking and find himself right around the average for run blocking. Connolly also was listed on the injury report with a concussion that he suffered before week 7, but missed no games. Before that had happened though, Connolly’s pass blocking was already incredibly poor for the year.
Sebastian Vollmer solidifies the right side by being consistently above average in his career and even with last season being cut short by injury still managed to put up an above average grade in both pass and run blocking.
Final Analysis: It’s not hard to see why Tom Brady had such a hard time in 2013. The New England Patriots Offensive Line had two interior lineman that were amongst the league’s worst in pass blocking and that led to Brady’s time in pocket being bottom 3 in both Time to Throw and Time to Sack. The AFC East has some of the best defensive line talent in the NFL (the Williams of Buffalo, the Three Son’s of the Jets, and the duo of Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon) so Brady could be in for another long season. On the other side, the run blocking as a unit was very strong with two of the best run blockers anchoring the left side. The Patriots in fact rank first amongst all OL for runs in between Center and either Guard. It’s crazy to think that the entirety of next years O-line is not only returning starters but their career average for Run Blocking would be twice the regular league wide average of all positions summed up. That kind of prolific interior blocking makes it very easy for me to buy into any RB starting behind the New England Patriots offensive line.
Click here to return to the Offensive Line Hub post.
Guards — Overvalued
1. Chris Snee*, New York Giants
Just like Carl Nicks in 2012, Chris Snee unfortunately had his season wash out in a year with a monster cap hit. The 32-year-old guard played three games before succumbing to a hip injury and missing the rest of the season. The Giants right guard had been the picture of health prior to 2013, missing just one game since he signed his six-year, $42.5m in 2008. The alarming thing for Snee is that the Giants were almost better off without him. The 10th-year veteran had allowed 13 pressures and amassed a grade of -6.4 in the 188 snaps he played before he got hurt.
2013 Cap Hit: $8.5m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $206k
Value Differential: -$8.3m
2. Daryn Colledge, Arizona Cardinals
Believe it or not, Daryn Colledge is currently the 12th-highest paid guard in terms of average per year. One could argue that he never really deserved to be there as his combined grade the two previous seasons prior to signing with Arizona was just +6.4. The Cardinals were desperately in need of line help in 2011 and threw cash at a proven commodity. The problem is that proven commodity was a league average guard then, and he’s a league average guard now. Colledge’s grades since he came to Arizona in 2011 are +0.7, -0.8, and -1.4. There is certainly value in playing every snap at an average level, but that value is nowhere near $7.3m.
2013 Cap Hit: $7.3m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $1.3m
Value Differential: -$6m
3. Logan Mankins, New England Patriots
If you’ve followed this series at all, you’ve probably noticed that cap numbers like $10m routinely go unfulfilled. The reason for this I believe is two-fold. The first reason is that only a select few can stay on top year after year after year. Great players have down years and in those years it will look like they’re not worth the money. The other reason is that these large cap hits often appear at the end of contracts to balance out underpaying early in the deal. Mankins’ deal is a little of both. The Pats’ left guard signed his six-year, $51m deal after a phenomenal stretch in the late 2000’s and he then proceeded to have a few down years by his standards. Mankins wouldn’t have made our overvalued list those years though because his cap hits were just $5m and $7m. 2013 was the first year of three straight $10m+ cap hit seasons. His +8.6 grade this past season ranked 19th among guards and Mankins hasn’t been in the Top 10 since he signed his contract.
2013 Cap Hit: $10m
2013 Jahnke Value Model: $4.2m
Value Differential: -$5.8m